cleetussnow

Deep winter = 2 high confidence snow chances and a wicked cold shot, and there is a lot of snowpack on the ground. Maybe someone should start a deep winter snow thread for these 'storms' since with a little LE the totals could rival last Fridays storm. =

I understand when winter doesn't produce people get frustrated, but that group is off the rails. And look at how often some of them post. 50k is not unusual over there. Get a life.

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/09/804266975/british-airways-sets-speed-record-crossing-the-atlantic-in-under-5-hours @Typhoon Tip. Here is another example of a jetliner crossing the Atlantic with a SuperSonic ground speed riding the jet stream. A new record for a subsonic jetliner. Under 5 hours New York to London.

Id say 14 up here in old forge. Winter wonderland look to it. Pulled a plow truck free twice around my camp, and so he cleared my driveway. Heading out into the wilderness now!

I’m in on the d6. I love the ukie. Seems like a good model.

I'm making my run up the Hudson valley tomorrow afternoon/evening, then over to the western Dacks. Hopefully its trailing off by then. Worried about an icing section right about Albany rush hour.

Gfs scaled back big time. But the dynamics don’t look much different at a quick glance. Edit cut back on the west and dacks in many areas.

Blackholes DO emit radiation. 932 low is what that says, with like Zillions of other LP centers

I know. I won't believe it until I'm in hell driving through it. I'll at least get a chance to test my new truck tires in some man snow.

It can come in a hurry up there! The lewis county forecast office is different from the Herkimer office. Lots of times the snowfall forecasts differ right on that line. Herkimer is a skinny county.

Duh right. Lewis is the left, Hamilton to the right. fixed original post.

It does, but it's not like the Tug. I imagine 150 to 170 inches is around the normal winter. They've had some 450 inch winters in the old days, and a couple 300 inchers in this century. nowhere close to normal this year. The LE snow is probably half of the normal total, but that is a hard thing to know. I've been to Piseco area in the winter. Brantingham is probably snowier than OF since it is closer to the lake effect zone. We head that way from OF on sleds. I believe Brantingham is at a lower elevation than OF so snow doesn't hang on as long. I'd go for Brant if you wanted to get in on LE snows. Piseco may have orographics going for it same as Old Forge with some upslope, and elevation might help retaining the pack.

I have a camp up in Old Forge in Herkimer county. Its not really a major LE area. need synoptics.

GFS looks good. At this time, I will stick with Euro Ukie and GFS in that order, and then tomorrow take the NAM and mesocscale guidance more serious. this is so borderline for many that the R/S/I line will be gametime call.

I’ll be heading to my camp in old forge. Looks good but can’t get into the higher totals that far west and shadowed. I may have to drive through whatever ice condition develops along 87, that’s my main worry. Hopefully it’s all out by 18z or shortly after Friday so I can make my way up.

That was a great euro run and it’s possible. Best look since November. Lol

Um. Yeah. And also noticed the play button.

You want the Euro in your court despite recent erratic behavior. its still the king if weaker. I say ukie + euro is the way to go at this time range.

cold is close through all the frames at least. Maybe a good presidents week for skiiing

For these HPs to be 'cold' that have to be at least arctic/polar origin, and that is basically in the Hudson Bay at this time frame based on the TTB Euro maps. The cold is pretty bottled up until the storm passes then we can a transient cold shot for like 36 hours, then we don't see another arctic/polar type airmass until later next week. The euro shows just enough cold to tap for western NY/central NY for mostly snow. This is 4 days so in Euro we trust.

airmass is trash. I would think an 988 LP would chuck precip further west. I think the convection in the Atlantic is having an effect. But typical with winter, rain to maine. I just hope the western shifts stop.

Per gfs if that the LP next weekend goes much further west we can track convection maybe. That’s a threat.

if those 6 days threats were our oasis then we would die of thirst. Mirages or minimal qpf to quench thirst. Just then another oasis appears 7 days off, so we crawl and claw on our bedraggled bellies toward it, parched and desperate, but that's all we can do! track. We always have hope and hope never lets us down. here's to winter 2022. i might just turtle up and conserve energy.

I was living in germany I think - honestly have no memory of it. I also don't remember 78 being a hit there, but i could be mixing those 2 years. NOW i do remember something up there in 94....

I could go with 93 to 2015. My first storm memory was 77. The next one is 93. Lol.