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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    GFS has a cold bias in the LR so that's why we get these cold/snowy runs that never verify
  2. Brian5671
    this winter might make 11-12 look cold and snowy....
  3. Brian5671
    I would not expect any big changes-this god awful pattern has been locked in place and too much to fix overall.... Models have some headfakes, but I'm not buying into any of it.
  4. Brian5671
    54 degrees here-feels like April with the warm sun....
  5. Brian5671
    yep back to the drawing board on that one....
  6. Brian5671
    dramatic flip that year....went from torch to freezer in the space of a few days
  7. Brian5671
    Wow JB is being ripped to shreds on Twitter...
  8. Brian5671
    NCEP sets it up that way so weenies always have hope...."hey folks, the 384 hr GFS has a HECS!"
  9. Brian5671
    Too much to fix this year, I think the cancel calls are justified this year...of course central and northern NE have better chances due to latitude but for the bulk of CT/RI/MA it's over.
  10. Brian5671
    DCA +5, NYC +4, BOS +3.5, ORD +4, ATL +5, IAH +3, DEN +1, PHX, -.5, SEA -2
  11. Brian5671
    Also the warm water N of Australia which would favor MJO 4/5/6. I didn't see anyone say "oh wait a minute" that changes things....
  12. Brian5671
    they still could. One HECS is all it takes. Temperature wise, though, those forecasts are toast, we're looking at a top 10 warmest winter. Anyone see a forecast for that?
  13. Brian5671
    wow-the weeklies are usually like JB, holding out to the bitter end. If they say it's over it's over.
  14. Brian5671
    Saddle up folks!
  15. Brian5671
    models have 50's later next week...good luck with that
  16. Brian5671
    what? I can't believe you have pulled the top secret 1054 hr Iraqi run which shows a Feb 2015 pattern setting in.....
  17. Brian5671
    because winter is over....
  18. Brian5671
    just 15 short days away!
  19. Brian5671
    Judah Cohen and Amy Butler on twitter have been talking about this much of the winter and how the lack of disruption was going to lead to mild conditions over the CONUS. This coupled with other unfavorable events pretty much sealed our fate. We'll have to hope for a lucky SECS or something but by and large it's over.
  20. Brian5671
    The general public (around me at least) had the idea that this was going to be a brutal winter. I heard a few people say it-based on what? Likely click bait twitter and internet posts on facebook and other social media. There was little to support for a "severe" or "brutal" winter.....
  21. Brian5671
    Amongst many factors, the warm water on the NW shore of Australia killed this year. Makes the MJO want to stay in the warm phases. Couple that with the super positive AO, +EPO and -NAO and we're toast.
  22. Brian5671
    doesn't really matter what it shows, the teleconnections do not support anything of significance
  23. Brian5671
    Euro's got 50's next week-we all know how these warmups over perform.
  24. Brian5671
    some day they'll be back, but we're due for a string of ratters after the prolific snows of this century...
  25. Brian5671
    meh...nothing heavy so it's rain or white rain
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