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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    LOL-thanks PB....
  2. Brian5671
    A weak nina would be ok....moderate or strong and we'll be in trouble unless we get something freaky like '10-11
  3. Brian5671
    This will be known as the winter of (MJO) 4-5-6 for sure.
  4. Brian5671
    I felt -30 out in Colorado back in the winter of 10-11-it was right around the 2/3/11 storm out here. It actually hurt to breath...
  5. Brian5671
    That may help us a bit tomorrow if the south winds don't screw us....
  6. Brian5671
    You did correct, but the warmup surprised you and everyone else-you were looking for a cold 30 day period...granted that could happen but we're going to have a few days with some big positive departures that were not see even 3 days ago...very difficult forecasting this year MJO jumping back to crappy phases mid Jan-also a surprise...Christ a month ago I thought we were headed towards a 14-15 repeat, doesn't look like that at all now...
  7. Brian5671
    You never know-we could have a wild March-but that's a wildcard....can't count on it given our climo
  8. Brian5671
    10-15 days away as usual. Maybe it comes this time, maybe it doesn't, but it's getting late early. The warmup in the mid term was only seen by modeling 2-3 days ago, so anything beyond that is anyone's guess at this juncture... No guarantee the erratic MJO doesn't pop over to 4-5 again...and without blocking any arctic shots are in and out like the one this week...need something to lock it in....too much going wrong this year IMO.
  9. Brian5671
    agreed. 0 degrees and then warm up and rain does nothing for me. Let it torch at this point ala '11-12
  10. Brian5671
    at least you have a sense of humor about it...LOL
  11. Brian5671
    No magic 8 ball, but like I outlined above, a lot is working against us. And on point 2, why don't you look at the data and make your own thoughts instead of regurgitating what others say?
  12. Brian5671
    He did one year-04-05 maybe? And he was right...but that's it... While I enjoy JB and do learn alot from his posts/videos, he has a clear cold bias-he'll try to find the cold in the pattern regardless. You have to factor that in with him and Joe D'Aleo....
  13. Brian5671
    that's his M.O. every year. So and so said this, so and so said that....blah blah blah. In the end, too much to fix this year...strong PAC jet, MJO constantly in poor phases of 4-5-6, phantom -AO and -NAO. Just too much working against us. Happens.
  14. Brian5671
    looks like a good call at this point. Nothing to date, maybe 1-2 inches of snow tomorrow and then we torch for 5 days...not looking good for anything sustained cold/snowy
  15. Brian5671
    one of the weirdest MJO's period's I can remember. If it stays in 6 you can nail the coffin on this "winter"
  16. Brian5671
    JB had originally talked of a long lasting severe cold snap that would stretch resources thin....he's not talking about that anymore and is stating the models are too strong on the warm up next week. (certainly trying to keep the ship afloat, but it's taking on more water than the pumps can handle...)
  17. Brian5671
  18. Brian5671
    schools were closed here 3 days due to that...numerous trees down
  19. Brian5671
    hoping we can get one decent storm out of this disaster....even duds like 94-95 had a good storm....
  20. Brian5671
    cold coming in behind...
  21. Brian5671
    From tropical tidbits, this is the 500 MB temp anomolies for a few dates....ugly to say the least, however there is more cold moving in in the long range, but verbatim this would be quite warm for 3-4 days...(the op run has 2 m daytime temps of 50-60 from PHL to NYC during this period.)
  22. Brian5671
    I misunderstood your post. I agree, looks horrible on modeling now...which is a change however from the models showing constant good pattern 7-10 days out.... let's look at it this way then, maybe it will snow in a warm pattern like last year's president's day weekend event. Heck, we can't get snow in this (somewhat) colder pattern....
  23. Brian5671
    I just got back from Breck-tons of snow-2 feet in the week I was there-the pac jet slamming into the WC is paying dividends somewhere...
  24. Brian5671
    have you see the euro and EPS for this coming weekend and into the following week? Massive torch incoming (if correct)
  25. Brian5671
    yeah big el nino's are often warm here...82-83, 97-98 and 15-16...we lucked out 2 of the three with a big storm, but otherwise, the winters were torches outside of a 2-3 week period.
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