Amen, we've only had an inch at a time this winter so a few inches would be like a HECS. LOL. Currently partly sunny here and 62. We've had colder days in April!
the cool down is starting to look legit, however there will be a crazy MTD +++ departure by 1/15. Some will obviously get erased depending on the extent of the pattern change,.
turned out it was-I think we had 3-4 inches after the pattern broke down in early February....it never reloaded, just became warm and dry which was a god send with 50 inches of snow on the ground....imagine if a bunch of cutters had set up ala Jan 96?
Always true, however there is history, 06-07 when from blowtorch to freezer for the 2nd half. 89-90 was freezer to blowtorch. So it's on the table. But I agree, there's nothing at present to show that.
Weeklies have been horrid last 2 years, so I would toss them even if it showed a 95-96 pattern. Last year it showed that every run for the LR and it never came.
Saw an article that great lakes ice cover trails even last year...LOL. Stores have stocks of ice melt, snowblowers, sleds that are just sitting there. On the bright side Jan heating bills will be lower especially those with Nat Gas
Polar vortex-strong
Atlantic blocking-nowhere to be found
Pacific blocking-neutral to slight
PNA-negative
MJO-warm phases
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model runs are only part of the package-if they are getting something noted above wrong the error only gets worse as one heads further out...
what I see above is not exactly what I want to see for a prolonged wintry stretch (not just temps, but snow/ice) in our area
I'll give an example-several days ago models had an ice storm for Cleveland this weekend. Now they have thunderstorms and record warmth this weekend. SE ridge way under modeled so everything will end up further N and W and thus warmer for many