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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    18z NAM supports the flood watch-wow!
  2. Brian5671
    Upton just hoisted flash flood watches for the coast, NYC, LI Southern CT etc
  3. Brian5671
    Jan 12 and Jan 02 were identical...a 10 day winter with a 4 inch storm around 1/20 or so....it was back to the blowtorch after the 10 days....both years had a great spring with no snowcover anywhere up north to send down the backdoor fronts etc
  4. Brian5671
    that's the point I was trying to make above...folks said that once we got out of the last warm phase that we were all set and just as it was preparing to go through a ride from 7/8/1 it went back into the COD and popped out around 5 again and with some moderate amplitude. Even JB says today that it's not what he wants to see....
  5. Brian5671
    seems like it's been more unpredictable than usual this year (MJO) Agree on the cold- 0 degree cold is not likely to net us much....
  6. Brian5671
    airmasses continue to come in warmer than progged in the longer range. KC, a week ago was supposed to be in the single digits...instead it's close to 20 degrees there today.... need to get the AO to tank and get the MJO to take a trip through 7/8/1
  7. Brian5671
    based on what?!?!?
  8. Brian5671
    that's part of the issue-had today's airmass been in the mid 20's we'd all get another 3-4 hrs of frozen-stale air and it's a quick changeover....
  9. Brian5671
    I don't blame them for now-let another round of model data come in-otherwise the public gets confused with the back and forth...
  10. Brian5671
    with warmth for a few hours tomorrow-left over icing on trees/powerlines/walkways will not be a big deal-sure puddles will freeze but most paved surfaces will dry out-the worst weather comes overnight while most are sleeping
  11. Brian5671
    let's hope...this next week of Phase 5 and 6 was largely unforecast if you go back 15-20 days....we continue to fight a a poor MJO phase.....
  12. Brian5671
    exactly-models 3-4 days ago were much colder. EVen the backside cold is in and out....
  13. Brian5671
    given the western track of the low and strong mid level warmth that's definitely on the table....
  14. Brian5671
    this winter is something straight of the 1980's...
  15. Brian5671
    just 10 short days away!!!
  16. Brian5671
    20 degree temp gradient on the euro b/w CT and LI wow...mid to upper 50's just south of NYC into NJ/PA and Long Island for a time Sunday AM
  17. Brian5671
    ugly-that probably flips many city, nearby city and S and E to plain rain....
  18. Brian5671
    3 would be a huge win here....I'm thinking 1-2 and then some ice and maybe ending as a cold rain with temps around 33-34
  19. Brian5671
    Bold call especially with how things have gone. He's going to need to cold to hit and stay (not like Monday's shot which is in and out in a 36 hrs)
  20. Brian5671
    Bingo. Even if it only got to 40, most roads would dry out during the day with a few hours of no rain etc....flash freezes are very rare...March 2005, Jan/Feb 94, there's just not that many in reality.
  21. Brian5671
    modeling has been slowing the colder air until later in the day-if there's a few hours in between when the precip shuts off, most roads would dry up somewhat.
  22. Brian5671
    Imagine if the warm GFS from 5 days ago verifies....
  23. Brian5671
    starting to look like we'll dry out too after the storm passes-flash freeze potential is drying up (pun intended)
  24. Brian5671
    Makes sense-the NAM being mesoscale should be the model to pick up on any CAD etc. It's a bit odd to see the euro not agreeing with the NAM yet-they usually come into line about 48 hrs out...
  25. Brian5671
    Agree 100% No school delays either!
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