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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    let's hope, we've kissed 2/3 of met winter goodbye so far....
  2. Brian5671
    an unmitigated disaster. No help from the PAC, AO/NAO and MJO has been mostly in 4-5....big bag of fail. The cold we've gotten has been accompanied by dry weather.... Quite possible NYC gets to 2/1 with less than an inch of snow for met winter....hope we don't end up with a delayed spring-that's the worst a snowless winter followed by a -NAO in April...LOLz
  3. Brian5671
    verbatim it's alot of rain for NYC, LI and a good chuck of jersey (after the initial thump of snow/ice)
  4. Brian5671
    Saved what was otherwise a dud. (Was a dud S and W of NYC) This winter's 2nd half script still pending, but I'd take one bomb and call it a day and have spring start 3/1....
  5. Brian5671
    cold and dry especially 2nd half of the month. The Big NYC east blizzard occurred 2/8/13 and then one more big storm in March and that was it....
  6. Brian5671
    I think you'e talking about 2 different systems here-the 1st post is 1/20 and the 2nd is 1/17
  7. Brian5671
    UKMET has led the way here-Euro has gone from a cutter to over/just east of NYC ....The GFS I would just toss.
  8. Brian5671
    that's probably a good bet for most of us....
  9. Brian5671
    in the "amazing" winter of 18-19 it's what you get....
  10. Brian5671
    if we have 2 warm cutters, there's little chance that Jan finishes below normal-especially if the cold air underperforms as well. (will depend on whether there's snow/ice cover for radiational night time cooling which could add or subtract several degrees either way)
  11. Brian5671
    Still a day or two here to see where this is going-however, MJO in poor phase, No Blocking no 50-50 low and seasonal trend not in our favor here...UKIE is an outlier for the time being....
  12. Brian5671
    never gets above
  13. Brian5671
    low moves from Atlanta to well east of Cape Cod...nothing like the GFS
  14. Brian5671
    completely different solution-euro will be interesting....
  15. Brian5671
    the lack of snow would only be 100 miles inland from the coast-the storm unloads well inland-not sure the air would get all that modified moving over 100 miles of bare ground
  16. Brian5671
    this could be one of those times given the severe cold behind it-it's not run of the mill cold....
  17. Brian5671
    very rare if that occurs....
  18. Brian5671
    good point-that map includes the Thurs event so 1-2 inches then heavy rain for the city/coast
  19. Brian5671
    yup-the sensible weather regardless of the pattern is rain/warm and cold/dry this year....
  20. Brian5671
    odd track....
  21. Brian5671
    Nothing. There's no redevelopment-need the high to press to get this further south
  22. Brian5671
    We may see more snow Thursday night than over the weekend....
  23. Brian5671
    if the storm cuts well west of NYC like the Euro shows, you could be zero and it would be all rain-that would be a huge push of Southerly winds which would bring 55 degree warmth to us. all depends on the ultimate track of the low and how it interacts with the cold. Big ice is rare-usually the storm cuts and we rain and then the cold comes or it taps the cold and we are snow or perhaps snow to rain...
  24. Brian5671
    If we get a cutter 1/20 and a big warm up end of next week, January will almost be certain to finish in the positive temp category...let's hope the MJO continues the trip through the cold phases after 4 and 5....a bit of a surprise for it to head right back to 4/5 after reaching the promise land of 8
  25. Brian5671
    not in NYC and along the coast-it's mainly rain with nothing on the back end....6Z GFS is mostly rain as well and then the cold comes in after the precip is gone....UKMET is the only model that shows decent snows for the coast and city.
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