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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    something better to talk about?
  2. Brian5671
    Good post by Ryan Maue about the pile of garbage models have been this winter: Ryan Maue @RyanMaue I'm taking even more interest in Weekly weather forecasting since much of it lately is awful. Forecasters have strong biases that aren't rectified leading to repeated busts. So, is winter canceled or not?
  3. Brian5671
    we can live without a -NAO or even AO but a +EPO with those 2 will just be more of the same
  4. Brian5671
    it sucks for snow around here and that's what most will care about. A day 10 rainstorm amidst a few colder days (and let's be honest this cold is nothing to write home about) is nothing to get excited about. Sorry. Last January's cold, although fleeting (nothing to block it in) was much more impressive.
  5. Brian5671
    Yep, figured that. Time to root for a Feb 06 redux-that would take care of the 20 inch problem.
  6. Brian5671
    what was last year? Had to be very close to 20 then.
  7. Brian5671
    couple snow showers here with temps around 45-47
  8. Brian5671
    As someone said, if it doesn't change by the end of January it probably won't.
  9. Brian5671
    Ouch. If we can't hold onto the cold beyond a few days, we're in trouble (and even the cold next few days into early next week is not anything that's crazy for Jan) Last Jan had some short lived but much more impressive cold.
  10. Brian5671
    Christ. That won't bring anything wintry....
  11. Brian5671
    what's impressive is that Dec '19 had a cold first 3 weeks, so most of the warmth was in 4 weeks....
  12. Brian5671
    ok deal.
  13. Brian5671
    Fair argument
  14. Brian5671
    it's winter, it's often windy
  15. Brian5671
    NAM trending drier-only about .3 to .4 of QPF today's run
  16. Brian5671
    Blizzard of 96. Was forecast to miss NYC until about 24 hrs out....great example there.
  17. Brian5671
    COD would be ok-we just can't have it shoot back to 4/5/6 like it did every time last winter or we're in trouble.
  18. Brian5671
    sometimes persistence forecasting is the way to go-maybe we do change, but many times, breaking a bad pattern is tough to do.
  19. Brian5671
    so far he's been right-pile of garbage up to today.
  20. Brian5671
    analogs are tough these days-different base state, warmer oceans etc.
  21. Brian5671
    Agree partly-but a good -EPO would make the AO and NAO less important
  22. Brian5671
    meanwhile JB says ice age: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h Been banging the drum since the holidays about the big reversal coming , the transition Jan 16-20 then rest of winter cold and stormy . Here are the last 30 days, and the JMA starting the 19th for the next 28 days, cfsv2 for the next 30. Analogs said it, models agreeing
  23. Brian5671
    Judah Cohen says it's about over: Judah Cohen @judah47 · 13m To further elaborate completion of this troposphere-stratosphere coupling favors multiple weeks of positive #Arctic Oscillaton and overall mild weather and relatively light #snowfall. At this point hard for #winter to recover.
  24. Brian5671
    N and W for sure on the higher end.
  25. Brian5671
    the city is not getting 6 from this. Maybe 2 to possibly 3 inches. (which would be a huge win)
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