Brian5671

this winter might make 11-12 look cold and snowy....

I would not expect any big changes-this god awful pattern has been locked in place and too much to fix overall.... Models have some headfakes, but I'm not buying into any of it.

54 degrees here-feels like April with the warm sun....

yep back to the drawing board on that one....

dramatic flip that year....went from torch to freezer in the space of a few days

Wow JB is being ripped to shreds on Twitter...

NCEP sets it up that way so weenies always have hope...."hey folks, the 384 hr GFS has a HECS!"

Too much to fix this year, I think the cancel calls are justified this year...of course central and northern NE have better chances due to latitude but for the bulk of CT/RI/MA it's over.

DCA +5, NYC +4, BOS +3.5, ORD +4, ATL +5, IAH +3, DEN +1, PHX, -.5, SEA -2

Also the warm water N of Australia which would favor MJO 4/5/6. I didn't see anyone say "oh wait a minute" that changes things....

they still could. One HECS is all it takes. Temperature wise, though, those forecasts are toast, we're looking at a top 10 warmest winter. Anyone see a forecast for that?

wow-the weeklies are usually like JB, holding out to the bitter end. If they say it's over it's over.

Saddle up folks!

models have 50's later next week...good luck with that

what? I can't believe you have pulled the top secret 1054 hr Iraqi run which shows a Feb 2015 pattern setting in.....

because winter is over....

just 15 short days away!

Judah Cohen and Amy Butler on twitter have been talking about this much of the winter and how the lack of disruption was going to lead to mild conditions over the CONUS. This coupled with other unfavorable events pretty much sealed our fate. We'll have to hope for a lucky SECS or something but by and large it's over.

The general public (around me at least) had the idea that this was going to be a brutal winter. I heard a few people say it-based on what? Likely click bait twitter and internet posts on facebook and other social media. There was little to support for a "severe" or "brutal" winter.....

Amongst many factors, the warm water on the NW shore of Australia killed this year. Makes the MJO want to stay in the warm phases. Couple that with the super positive AO, +EPO and -NAO and we're toast.

doesn't really matter what it shows, the teleconnections do not support anything of significance

Euro's got 50's next week-we all know how these warmups over perform.

some day they'll be back, but we're due for a string of ratters after the prolific snows of this century...

meh...nothing heavy so it's rain or white rain

truly cold winters have been few and far between over the last 20 years ( 03-04, 2nd half of '07, 13-14, 14,15 to name a few cold ones) even 09-10 was not all that cold. We lucked out with a bunch of warm/snowy winters, which has in the last 3 years gone to generally warm/wet so folks are now freaking out. Twitter was the worst thing that could happen to weather since it gave the yearly cold/snowy outlook crew a place to spout their snake oil. No one pays attention to a forecast that shows above normal temps and well below normal snow.....