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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    Wonder if this will be another winter of "the cold and snow is 10-15 days away"
  2. Brian5671
    I thought the same thing unless I missed the warnings/advisories over the weekend?
  3. Brian5671
    These warm patterns tend to overperform I bet we see some temps higher than guidance. Had it not rained 3-4 inches this week I would have taken a bet on a day close to 80
  4. Brian5671
    some frost on roof tops here this morning.
  5. Brian5671
    SST temps are way above normal. That will keep us warm through December most likely. Then we'll have to see what the AO, NAO MJO etc want to do.
  6. Brian5671
    yeah it must have built back in-we ended with about 1.20
  7. Brian5671
    back half of the system is weaker than modeled....steady rain ended here a few hours ago
  8. Brian5671
    It seems more often than not there's something to track the last week of October. Some certainly delivered, 2011 Snow bomb, 2012 Sandy, Halloween storm of 1991 etc
  9. Brian5671
    Yep the 2 events this week will have delivered a much needed 2-4 inches of rain to most areas
  10. Brian5671
    rain has commenced here...temps down from 65 to 57
  11. Brian5671
    11-12 featured a big PV like last year but was bone dry. Also had some big solar storms that fall that I wonder if they had an influence? Doubt we see anything that dry this year. Last year had the big PV but it was wetter, just zero cold air with the PV locked away.
  12. Brian5671
    Outlier. Most models are around .5 to .75
  13. Brian5671
    The old adage will apply-earlier to start earlier to finish. Happens alot with these fast moving storms-this one is more like a frontal wave vs the storm some models had earlier in the week.
  14. Brian5671
    less marine influence there. Close to 80 degree water for a time this summer which has only slowly cooled off
  15. Brian5671
    Not to mention SST's being 60 degrees...LOL
  16. Brian5671
    Climo
  17. Brian5671
    quick mover-6-9 hrs of rain and that's it.
  18. Brian5671
    Models starting to shift east with the Friday night event. NAM has shifted the heaviest precip western edge from about Scranton to Newark and the GFS appears to be following suit.
  19. Brian5671
    Even past Day 5 is a crapshoot for OP models
  20. Brian5671
    .77 here total for the 2 day event. About 65% of that fell today
  21. Brian5671
    weenie band of rain here all day....still going....
  22. Brian5671
    that dumped about a half inch here earlier
  23. Brian5671
    heavy shower coming through here now....
  24. Brian5671
    from a pandemic perspective an 01-02 style winter would work. From a weenie perspective we want 95-96
  25. Brian5671
    About the same here. Another round coming Friday night-starting to get into stratiform rain/storm season now
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