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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    2/6 marks the end of the coldest (climo) part of winter... daily temp averages begin to increase and sunlight really begins to increase and the lighter evenings become more and more noticeable....
  2. Brian5671
    with no blocking and a fast flow, any weather pattern will be short lived the next couple of weeks...
  3. Brian5671
    Not really. There's been 2 cold arctic shots and that's about it and even those were in and out with the lack of Atlantic blocking. The calls for sustained cold/snowy have not worked out to date. Maybe it changes, but the last month definitely did not go as planned.
  4. Brian5671
    still waiting for it here-temps are 29-30 so should be good. Sun angle not an issue as it's 4pm (kidding)
  5. Brian5671
    they dismissed here 2 hours early....
  6. Brian5671
    cloud deck visible here to the west now...it's coming!!!!!
  7. Brian5671
    Just brutal....
  8. Brian5671
    back in the late 90's there was a series of squalls that caused a 30-40 car pileup on I-95 near Clinton CT.
  9. Brian5671
    One advisory level will take us to 11-12 type dud-that's why people are talking about it in the past tense. LOL. In all seriousness-the ship has sailed on any long lasting snow cover or big wintry period. Looks mainly snowless next 7-10 days as well... Hoping we can get a MECS or HECS to salvage it....
  10. Brian5671
    Fair point, but what's gone on in the past 20 years is not typical here...
  11. Brian5671
    let's all move to the Tug hill plateau - WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Heavy lake effect snow and dangerously cold wind chills expected. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 feet expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero expected.
  12. Brian5671
    Completely agree-regression to the mean....
  13. Brian5671
    I was on the Merritt pwky last night and there were trucks dropping salt with temps at 39 degrees with moderate rains....great use of tax payer funds!
  14. Brian5671
    No one will believe LR forecasts for next year that's for sure....surprising to go from expected 100-150% of normal snowfall to perhaps 10-25% depending on whether we get anything (and the next 7-10 days does not look good)
  15. Brian5671
    One of the most boring January's in quite some time. Even the clunkers of 01-02 and 11-12 had snow in January...
  16. Brian5671
    only problem there is that it looked like it was going to do that earlier this month and then went quickly into the COD and back to its favorite place this winter (4/5/6), if so maybe we could get a 2-3 week period of decent winter. I had visions of 2 months of cold and snow with the Russian marching down the frozen Hudson, but alas it was not meant to be this year....
  17. Brian5671
    he stated all that above...LOL
  18. Brian5671
    LOL-thanks PB....
  19. Brian5671
    A weak nina would be ok....moderate or strong and we'll be in trouble unless we get something freaky like '10-11
  20. Brian5671
    This will be known as the winter of (MJO) 4-5-6 for sure.
  21. Brian5671
    I felt -30 out in Colorado back in the winter of 10-11-it was right around the 2/3/11 storm out here. It actually hurt to breath...
  22. Brian5671
    That may help us a bit tomorrow if the south winds don't screw us....
  23. Brian5671
    You did correct, but the warmup surprised you and everyone else-you were looking for a cold 30 day period...granted that could happen but we're going to have a few days with some big positive departures that were not see even 3 days ago...very difficult forecasting this year MJO jumping back to crappy phases mid Jan-also a surprise...Christ a month ago I thought we were headed towards a 14-15 repeat, doesn't look like that at all now...
  24. Brian5671
    You never know-we could have a wild March-but that's a wildcard....can't count on it given our climo
  25. Brian5671
    10-15 days away as usual. Maybe it comes this time, maybe it doesn't, but it's getting late early. The warmup in the mid term was only seen by modeling 2-3 days ago, so anything beyond that is anyone's guess at this juncture... No guarantee the erratic MJO doesn't pop over to 4-5 again...and without blocking any arctic shots are in and out like the one this week...need something to lock it in....too much going wrong this year IMO.
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