Euro ensembles warming in the long range for the east-cold looks centered out west...with each passing day it becomes more possible that the 11/15 event will be our biggest event of the winter
That won't really cut it-it might get us a storm, but we need a good strong run through the good phases in order to get a 2-3 week period with multiple threats....
if we end up back at MJO 5 or 6, it's lights out on the rest of the month most likely....need a push into 8-1-2 which we have yet to see this winter for some reason
If it comes at all. The 1st week Feb Warmup was only seen about a week out. Who knows what it will look like come 2/15....modeling has been horrid this winter...
the whole winter had something like 5 inches of rain in NYC (Nov-Mar). The spring and summer were hot with the dry ground and lack of snow cover Anywhere