EPS has been horrid this winter....as well as the Euro weeklies-I wouldn't buy anything they are putting out-can't handle the pattern this go around...
maybe the next few weeks will have a surprise, but generally looks average at best temp wise and the storm track will remain to our west. Going to need real cold as we go further into Feb/Mar for snows....average won't cut it.
The NAO has been fantasy all winter. MJO has been unpredictable to say the least. If it goes back to 7 and we get that strong -PNA we're toast for another 2-3 weeks and that brings us into March...yesterday was nice-the kids finally got to sled and have a snow day. They are 10 and they don't know what a snowless winter is like (Given the last 10 years in general)
part of the problem is that we did not get snow during the hours where it's cold enough at all levels for snow...dry air eating up the 1st couple hours so we lose a chance at a couple of inches there.
Too many chefs in the kitchen this winter so far....all sorts of things wrecking what could have been a good pattern, Strong Pac Jet, poor MJO, +NAO etc etc
Up through the 1st week of march-climo wise-gets tougher after that in any given year. Sure there was last year, but typically, it's a rough road after the 1st week or so....
he'll bust on temps here no matter what. (Dec +3, Jan average, Feb is +3.5 so far) Snowfall could still workout since it's first flake to last flake. He says it's coming by the way...just 10 more days of waiting....