Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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I've learned that if it doesn't come by late January it's generally not coming....you have a couple lucky outliers but for the most part we're toast if the pattern change doesn't arrive by then -
some including him using analogs from colder times, oceans were colder etc. What worked in the winter of 60-61 is not applicable for today's baseline....
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yep, it was time to mail it in when that happened. Models never showed anything but warmth and rain from that point on....
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Would be nice if they would shorten the season going forward but it won't happen. 162 games is crazy
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April 2020 temperature forecast contest
Brian5671 replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA +4 NYC +3.5 BOS +2.5 ORD +3 ATL+ 5 IAH +4 DEN+1 PHX+1 SEA +1.5 -
Given that we saw 70's in January, Jan/Feb/Mar were +5 or better-nothing would shock me. Just no cold air anywhere here since December.
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That may come shortly-once this NAO block breaks down there's alot of heat from TX to GA/FL just waiting to come northeast
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Gulf of Mexico and Western Atlantic Oceans are warmer than average. Hard to fight that off too
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trending less negative...now averaging 1 to 1.5 SD below normal which is not a strong -NAO
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another warm bust. forecast high here 60, currently 64
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That's only b/c the PV is breaking up-we had zero chance of a -AO or -NAO this winter with the uber strong PV
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I think that could be the big difference from last year to this year along with the warm water off the coast (vs the cold water of last year) Of course we could get caught in a squeeze play b/w the ridge and the -NAO and end up with a rainy pattern.
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Still looks like a strong SE Ridge on that map....
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heavy rain and 34 here
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had a period of snow here but has since turned to light rain
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Hopefully the SE ridge can fight it off somewhat...plus we have warmer SST's off the east coast-last year there was a cold pool of water off the NE coast so when that onshore flow kicked in it was cold and nasty
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This year it probably has to do with the uber strong PV breaking down...
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Interestingly he posted about how the warm oceans have clearly had an effect on the climate and that the big nationwide cold winters are a thing of the past. There will be cold regionally but the warmth has to be respected-it was a sobering post considering the source!
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Just crazy that we'll finish March close to +7 and then April starts out +10....when will it end?!?!?
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69 here
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it's not happening-it's mostly rain now on models
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has had it several runs now....97-98 redux? Futility records ruined by a late storm?
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12z Euro has a foot of snow next Tuesday just north of the city....
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yep quick push of cold/dry air, but in and out just like all season....
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Nice soaker here-everything greening up fast with all the warmth.
