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Everything posted by Brian5671
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another numbers busting day-got up to 64 here
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had a brief light shower as I was walking around with the kids last night-was a bit surprised.
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Bust. If anything the warming accelerated.
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OBS and nowcast now through - 6A Sunday(Halloween) 10/31/21
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
sun out here-euro has another .25 to .50 from central LI east overnight -
OBS and nowcast now through - 6A Sunday(Halloween) 10/31/21
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
steady light rain here about .65 so far -
ice storms are rare for the coastal plain anyway
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models show 8-9pm for start time around your area give or take. Heaviest after midnight and into Sat AM.
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winds on euro look limited to coastal areas
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looks like it may hold off until later tomorrow evening at least based on latest model runs (especially north and east of NYC)
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some issues with a "cold" November 1. Canada remains warm in a relative sense. 2. Record warm SST's east of us. Even if Canada were cold, the cold would tend to be not the hit and hold type given the warm waters. We've seen this in past years. 3. Stronger WAR given the warm SST's. Positive feedback cycle. This will keep coldest departures to our west most likely.
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OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
best winds here were yesterday around 11am. Heavy rain the main story here with about 3 inches total- 228 replies
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it's where the people live....
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that's mostly people just regurgitating what JB's peddling
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OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
heavy rain again here. Radar filling in. We had about a 2 hr break before the line began pushing back west- 228 replies
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OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
new NAM shows the wind potential mainly over the water for our area with the exception of far eastern LI- 228 replies
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OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
rain shield backing west so getting back into some squalls now- 228 replies
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OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
eventually we'll see rain push SW again,but doubt it's as heavy as what we saw on the front end- 228 replies
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OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
dry slot has pushed in here-way north of where any model had it. Amazing the NAM and HRRR could bust that close in....- 228 replies
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OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
BDR has gusted to 44 already....- 228 replies
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blinding rains and winds. up to about 2 inches of rain. New NAM crushes SW CT with another 3-4 inches of rain
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OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
New NAM crushes LI and SW CT With another 3-5 inches of rain- 228 replies
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Both NAMS are further east and weaker-the regular nam starts the loop south of Nantucket....rain the main story for us verbatim not wind
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Part of the reason I haven't watched a TV weather forecast in 15 yrs
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This. I don't think the winds would mix down to the max potential once the heavy rains are done-by the time the wind field gets here alot of the heavy rain is largely done. So we'd have winds but maybe 50% of what the models are showing.
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