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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    I think we'll know that answer within the next 24 hrs. Models do sometimes miss instensifications
  2. Brian5671
    LOL-that model is horrid-not sure why it's used for anything let alone tropical systems
  3. Brian5671
    no hurricane has hit this early up here. Closest match was Belle in 1976 which hit on 8/10. (Read elsewhere)
  4. Brian5671
    yep. We have been crushed day after day here. Got 1.5 inches last night while 10 miles north of me was dry. About 11 inches of rain here for the month
  5. Brian5671
    shows you how quickly things change with unpredictable tropical systems...went from Cat 2-3 into NC to weak sauce near FL and then inland up the coast in 12 hrs. Still time for more changes of course...we track
  6. Brian5671
    apparantly the 12zUKie looks similar to the 12z GFS-into FL and then mostly inland once to SC. A non event for us verbatim outside of some heavy rains etc.
  7. Brian5671
    GFS has a western track-brushes FL east coast and then inland for good over SC-not much time over water and thus weak sauce-some quick heavy rains for us and that's it (Verbatim)
  8. Brian5671
    I think this is moving too fast for those amounts-it goes from NC to MA in 24 hrs...that's got to be 35-40 MPH forward speed?
  9. Brian5671
    DCA +2.5 NYC +2.75 BOS +3 ORD +2 ATL +2.5 IAH +1.5 DEN +1 PHX +1 SEA + .5
  10. Brian5671
    11am:
  11. Brian5671
    caught the northern edge of the heavy rains here-picked up a quick inch. Most heavy rains, some rumbles of thunder
  12. Brian5671
    hard to hit FL's east coast from a SE angle. We've seen time and time again that the storm will want to stay offshore...with that said a track into Florida makes this a non event up here outside of some remnant rains
  13. Brian5671
    imagine a storm cutting up the DELMARVA going NW-we'd see some serious winds on that track.
  14. Brian5671
    it just clipped the northeast corner of the island and it was weak, so not much to disrupt anyway. Agree-it could be off to the races tonight/tomorrow
  15. Brian5671
    completely agree-anything skirting the coast is going to have issues with dry air ingestion, cooler waters, etc. Fast speed and above normal water temps would help here, but would still guess the strength of the storm would be over forecast as Irene and Gloria were
  16. Brian5671
    some storms getting ready to move across S CT....
  17. Brian5671
    Something to track!
  18. Brian5671
    will also pull in dry air from the continent-see Irene.
  19. Brian5671
    I wouldn't ignore anything the Euro puts out on tropical systems. However, seems early for this kind of hit-usually see it late Aug and on...but this year is busy so who knows.
  20. Brian5671
    there's a separate thread for the cane.... -
  21. Brian5671
    move up through central CT after that-nice rainstorm for many with wind...system is rocketing NNE from this point on
  22. Brian5671
    Great discussion Walt. I think another factor will be how this thing looks once it gets over Hispanola. It's a weaker system now so maybe that works in its favor vs a hurricane which sees it's circulation disrupted by the large mountains and never recovers.
  23. Brian5671
    The trip over Hispanola will be interesting. I wonder what will be left of the storm on the other side....
  24. Brian5671
    the ol upwelling phenomenon we see on persistent west winds there
  25. Brian5671
    on that track Hispanola will shred it to pieces....
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