Brian5671

If you look at last Feb snow blitz it was perfect-cold enough for snow but not cold enough to suppress everything OTS

models are usually too quick on pattern flips, so I'd hedge a bit later for sure.

soft woods like pines would snap for sure.

for a rainstorm? Lol

I doubt anyone on LI/NYC Jersey coast sees any snow. SE winds will be picking up before any precip arrives

Flood watches are likely if this verifies

heavy rain for most here

Even there with the track of the storm I bet it flips to sleet/rain much quicker than forecast-screaming E/ESE winds there eventually too

gets captured/phases within incoming energy diving in from the great lakes

Exactly. There's some serious wishcasting going on here. This is 95% rain for the coast

some years we can't win. But still have a solid 2.5 months of chances left so have to hang in there

exactly. NJ/NYC/LI/CT coasts will quickly torch with strong ESE winds off the warm water. Any cold will quickly be scoured out.

hopefully this low becomes a 50/50

I'd be surprised with 3-maybe a coating that is quickly washed away especially south of the merritt

and remember the mid levels often torch faster than modeled-how many times do we go to sleet much earlier than forecast (or go to sleet when no forecast existed for sleet)

Yep the further west reflections will help warmer air come into coastal regions vs one offshore bomb that would keep winds NE

it phases and there's no blocking, the high is moving out.....so NW it goes

not many are interested in tracking a rainstorm....

I'm about 5 miles inland from the LI sound. Anything with an southerly or easterly flow it warms up very quick here 12 10:52 SW 18 G 28 10.00 Fair CLR 36 18 48% 26 NA 30.17 1021.5 12 09:52 SW 25 G 31 10.00 Fair and Breezy CLR 34 17 50% 21 NA 30.20 1022.8 12 08:52 SW 22 G 30 10.00 Fair and Breezy CLR 32 17 54% 19 NA 30.23 1023.8 12 07:52 SW 17 10.00 Fair CLR 30 18 61% 18 NA 30.26 1024.6 12 06:52 SW 17 G 25 10.00 Fair CLR 28 16 28 13 60% 16 NA 30.27 1025.1 12 05:52 SW 15 10.00 Fair CLR 26 14 60% 14 NA 30.31 1026.2 12 04:52 SW 20 10.00 Fair CLR 24 12 60% 9 NA 30.33 1026.9 12 03:52 SW 16 10.00 Fair CLR 23 11 60% 10 NA 30.36 1028.1 12 02:52 S 13 10.00 Fair CLR 21 9 59% 8 NA 30.39 1029.1 12 01:52 SW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 20 6 55% 7 NA 30.43 1030.4 12 00:52 NW 5 10.00 Fair CLR 13 4 15 13

Bingo. Went from 11 to 30 here in about 30 minutes....now up to 37

pretty definitive statement for something 5 days out....

Feb 2016 saw the same thing 0 to an inch of snow then rain and 40's on President's day. It happens

windy here temp has spiked to 30

Been awhile since we've had a storm that dropped accums and then got washed away-seems like we either have BM storms or cutters to Detroit

with a phased storm cutting or our west we'd have strong E or ESE winds off of 45 degree oceans-that cold air won't stand a chance....