Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
Brian5671 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
all the signs of a dead ratter winter incoming outside of maybe a storm or two (but hey even 01-02 and 11-12 had one storm) -
whole winter could be a torch if that -PNA is strong
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there's an old adage that says if the pattern doesn't show up by mid Jan it's not happening....
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Nope. It will change for sure but is it Jan or Feb? If we lose Jan it could get ugly
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Too early to say ratter but the lack of precip remains a concern....
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We will have our chances for sure, but the odds of a big winter are now decreasing since we lost a potential good 2 weeks period
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Ah got it. Yeah the Pacific rules the roost most of the time. 13-14 and 14-15 had the great -EPO with little Atlantic help as well.
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This is nothing like 93-94
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worst pattern since '11-12
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yeah but you call for cold and snow the entire winter-does that mean you cancel each other out? LOL
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I love snow and cold just as much as the next person, but we have to take off the snow goggle and address the elephant in the room-a god awful pattern that has really been around all fall and has yielded above normal temps, and well below normal precip....
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Doesn't mean anything when the PNA is severely negative (forecast to -4SD and even briefly to -5SD) and the cold dumps out west-all the blocking does here is lock in stale air that is marginal at best. Fast flow shreds everything as we get closer to any storm systems-look what happened last weekend we all ended up with .20 of an inch of QPF. Wash rinse repeat for the foreseeable future. - want some action? Head to the PAC NW-historic pattern setting up for them.
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LOL that will never happen.
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Rain for xmas day. No cold air
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given how dry and poor the pattern is, I think this will trend drier and further north as we move closer....last weekend's system ended up much further north than modeled even a day out and LOL how much snowier the weatherbell maps are than TT. Does JB fluff them to show more snow for the weenies?!?!?? LOL
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72 hr GFS has maybe a snow shower over CT and rain shower over LI nothing south of there. Yawn, pattern just blows
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Not seeing much if anything on the 12z NAM and RGEM -
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A run through 8-1-2 would be alot better. With that -PNA we risk all the cold dumping out west
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Totally different-we had a foot of snow mid-December 2020 which portends an above average winter snow wise. This December looks like an 0 fer.
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it's up there-December is on track for 2rd or 3rd warmest of all time in NYC.
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....we'll have our chances but it won't be in the next 7-14 days most likely.
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my other concern is that the ATL blocking dissipates in a couple weeks. Then we will have problems on that end. Things just not lining up
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Seattle goes into the deep freeze next week that's where all the cold air is going with the -PNA. We end up with stale cold and battling the SE ridge from time to time for the next 7 days or so.
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I call it as it is. A crappy pattern. Maybe it changes going into January but we continue to kick the can forward, first it was 12/15, then 12/22 now we're looking at 1/1. A crappy Pacific continues to dominate.
