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Everything posted by Brian5671
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Let's get this track later in Dec and early Jan when the airmasses are better!
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precip field much further west on the 3K NAM. Regular NAM only has about .50 QPF for the NYC area when as the 3K is triple that amount.
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going to be tough right on the coast for BOS
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Ski resorts rejoice after a slow start...
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Yeah the lack of a cold high ahead of time is the killer here.
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18z GFS with its usual suppressed solution at this range....
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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Brian5671 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Go with warmth, you'll rarely be wrong these days.... -
I'd agree. Classic case of later and later development as someone above noted...
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Euro has been slowly moving the precip max east last 3 runs. NE PA and Catskills get close to nothing now where the big rains and snows are now over New England.
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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Brian5671 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Thats why OP models are a waste of time beyond day 5 or 6 -
GFS and CMC show a suppressed solution with almost no precip north and west of NYC. With no cold high to the north, I'd doubt such solutions
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it's a wind driven rainstorm for 98% of the board on a weekend day no less, why would anyone get excited over that?
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It's the 84 hr NAM, that's why....
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Euro is wet with up to 5 inches of rain in areas
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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Brian5671 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
the coming days in the 40's will feel frigid.... -
December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Brian5671 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Coldest day here on Upton's forecast is next Monday with a high of 43-rest of the days are warmer. Seasonable to slightly above -
Good show here-had their been leaves on the trees we'd have a fair amount of issues-also the 11/16 storm took down some of the weak/dead wood.
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once the rain ends winds have a tougher time mixing down plus the LLJ is moving east now.
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winds picking up here-heavy windswept rains 58 degrees
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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Brian5671 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
would be rain anyway-no cold high-we usually don't do well with Low pressure north of the lakes -
November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Brian5671 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
all snowfall duds. The only one that delivered was 10-11 with the strong blocking that developed. -
That's why I'm hoping the pattern delays a bit-12/10- to 12/30 would be bit better....
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blocking would be great as long as there's some decent arctic air to lock in....