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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    agree-have to hope for a big 2nd half...
  2. Brian5671
  3. Brian5671
    wanna bet?
  4. Brian5671
    cutters galore though the 20th. Most of January is gone. Down to Feb and who knows about March....winter went to hell in a handbasket quick...
  5. Brian5671
    that looks awful. We'll have record warmth if that verifies....
  6. Brian5671
    Eastern weenies would like a 12-13 redux....
  7. Brian5671
    next 2 look like rainers too....warm begets warm...
  8. Brian5671
    the sensible weather is the same so far, warm and snowless...
  9. Brian5671
    A wetter version of '11-'12....
  10. Brian5671
    temp forecasts for January are in big trouble, it will be difficult to erase the warmth of the first 15 days...December finished +2 to +3 depending on locale as well, much warmer than the consensus....
  11. Brian5671
    no cold air anywhere....
  12. Brian5671
    ain't looking good that's for sure....modeling continues with the same pattern for 2 weeks plus...time's ticking...
  13. Brian5671
    89-90 was close as well. A little in Dec, but Jan and Feb were mostly snowless that year
  14. Brian5671
    Last Feb, the MJO got stuck in a warm phase and we were warm and rainy most of the month outside of a president's weekend 4 incher than melted in a day
  15. Brian5671
    that's ugly. And it's the EPS so there's reason to worry. If it were the GFS I'd be more relaxed....
  16. Brian5671
    True-it could turn 93-94 in 10 days and no one would care about the trainwreck before hand...of course it could continue warm and wet and we can all jump like rats off the sinking ship of winter 18-19
  17. Brian5671
    depends on what you are worrying about. If you're looking for a long lasting winter, that idea is close to dead. December was a torch nationwide and the first 2 weeks of January don't look all that much different-sure we could get a HECS or a snowy/cold siege, but the pattern change has yet to materialize, hence the moaning and groaning....
  18. Brian5671
    ugh...those are 2 hideous comparisions. I do feel we could on track for a ratter given how everything keeps getting pushed back and back...I'll give it a few more weeks before jumping ship....
  19. Brian5671
    the SSW event is definitely a wild card here
  20. Brian5671
    thoughts on whether that can be overcome with a good -AO and/or -NAO?
  21. Brian5671
    need to get it to within 4-5 days...models have shown this solution for 3 weeks only to verify as a cutter with 50 degree plus temps.
  22. Brian5671
    yeah, can't remember the exact one but it was fairly recent.
  23. Brian5671
    This ruined another recent winter for us-16-17? And I remember it not being predicted well in advance... It raged for most of the winter and dumped record snows on CA while we torched.
  24. Brian5671
    I'd give it a couple more weeks, but if we see the good pattern pushing back once again, it may be time to toss in the proverbial towel as that would follow the trend of some other notable duds where the modeling always had the good pattern 10-15 days out but it never moved up in time...
  25. Brian5671
    only thing we have going for us is the 5-6 inches already in the books from the November storm. Without that 40 would really be a stretch
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