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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    we've done well last 20 yrs with snow and most of the winters (outside of 13-14 or 14-15) were AN....
  2. Brian5671
    who's giving up? people are just noting the persistence of the pattern this year. Can it change? Sure. Read more, post less.
  3. Brian5671
    the blocking showed up in March/April/May leading to cold and rain most of the time...granted not the 2nd half of winter per se, but the pattern finally came when it was mainly too late.
  4. Brian5671
    A cold November is often a waste. Still often to warm for snow and then it warms up in December after the pattern breaks down....but let's hope for a pattern change-seems that we've already started with the cold pattern being 15 days away....
  5. Brian5671
    sometimes the outlier is the correct solution. While the big amts the NAM had a few runs didn't pan out, it had the best general idea of precip well into New England.
  6. Brian5671
    a rare coup by the NAM-(although areas east of NYC will hang onto dry longer)
  7. Brian5671
    18z Nams still show rain late day tomorrow. No other model supports it. Upton has rain likley 3pm on but I don’t see it unless NAM scores a coup
  8. Brian5671
    December '15 was a once a generation event. I'd agree with part 2, mild, rainy and generally snowless +2 to +3 temps....
  9. Brian5671
    Makes sense-water off the coast is well above normal and Arctic sea ice was below normal so can see a warm start to December as we've often see the past few years...
  10. Brian5671
    A mess here in CT-50K without power-lots of trees/limbs down, Eastern CT hit particulary hard as they got the biggest winds/rains
  11. Brian5671
    winds really picking up here. Moderate rain to go along with it. Pivot may keep the rain going here but it will be close.
  12. Brian5671
    field would have been a mess
  13. Brian5671
    every once in awhile one of these surprises, like 1 out 25. Maybe this is the one but probably not.
  14. Brian5671
    mainly while we're asleep too.
  15. Brian5671
    I've heard that before....
  16. Brian5671
    euro is much drier for the region...1 inch average 2 inches here and there but isolated
  17. Brian5671
    I have to doubt the dual low thing. Seems odd for such a strong system. My guess is one low, closer to the coast.
  18. Brian5671
    yes, the system is a quick developer and also a fast mover-in and out in about 12 hrs.
  19. Brian5671
    Keep in mind the Euro is often overdone on winds. However even if you cut back by 25-30%, still a good event
  20. Brian5671
    yeah that run is worthless in that regard there will not be 3 lows
  21. Brian5671
    2 inches for most-jackpot of 3 over western/northern CT
  22. Brian5671
    GFS also progressive and east-an inch of rain for the area give or take but a quicker mover.
  23. Brian5671
    early snows are indicative of a crappy winter. Last year and 2011 are examples of winters with Oct/Early Nov snows that ended up crappy
  24. Brian5671
    a bit out of range but the NAM is well offshore with the low
  25. Brian5671
    even at that it was a 30-35 day winter, once the pattern broke down around 2/1 it was warm and mainly snowless the rest of the way
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