Brian5671

3K

per nam, best rains from the 2nd batch will be east of NYC -

quick downpour here dropped a good .40 in about 5 minutes...

models have been bad on this one for the coast-the RGEM showed 2 inches here Monday, we got about .05 I bet most of the coastal folks are mainly dry tomorrow.

incredible training rains over BWI region...what a spring and summer down there. Locally, 84/75 and mostly sunny. Very Oppressive humidity.

Yeah GFS is crazy wet in those areas the next 10 days

Great sleeping weather last 2 nights...nice to give the AC a break too...(and a break on the wallet)

doubt it rains the entire week-afternoon pop up activity yes, but not a washout on any given day.

Adds variety/interest. The last 3 weeks while sunny and hot/warm have been pretty boring for weather enthusiasts....

GFS shows the WAR pressing west which will set up this flow....

the 2nd batch continues to re generate overhead here...a good 1/2 inch of additional rain in the past couple of hours.

Sun and Monday do not look great at this point. The whole week actually looks somewhat unsettled-not rainouts, but chances of storms each day....

another round of rain here...over an inch now with this 2nd line.

looks like a garden variety line of storms-fast moving and no severe...

storms firing along the NJ coast and SW CT near Stamford already

TStorm watch for northern CT and parts of the HV

no marine layer here-close to 90 already with a SW wind picking up.

if a tree falls in a forest and no one is around does it make a noise?

models incredibly wet for this weekend and beyond...

I could see the anvil off to my Northwest, but nope, not a drop here....

JB says watch out for a hybrid type noreaster coming up the coast this weekend.

convection has died out as it approaches the coast...seems to be more so the last few weeks-we are far enough north and west (as far as coastal folks go) that we get the goods before it dies out further S and E....this year it seems the dying out has started earlier....

Upton notes PWATS close to 2.50 for tomorrow... - Tuesday will see POPs continue to increase as the cold front slowly moves through. There will be a chance for heavy rain associated with the frontal passage. PWATs are near 2.50", which is very high for this time of year given climatology. So although storm total precipitation is around an inch, some isolated areas may receive upwards of two inches. This could lead to some urban and small stream flooding. Widespread flash flooding looks unlikely as much of the tri-state has been relatively dry lately. In fact, New London County is in a DO in the US Drought Monitor.

only about .25 here since the big rains of late June. Hoping tomorrow delivers. Models showing hit/miss areas as one would expect with convection.

Who cares? It's a week away-It can and will change 20x.