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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    OP models are a joke after 5-6 days, but it's amazing to see them with zero snow for us for the entirety of the run after this weekend. Not even a 384 hr fantasy blizzard
  2. Brian5671
    Brutal out there with the wind today-19 degrees with 35mph gusts
  3. Brian5671
    It's not all that different from last year. (it's actually warmer) The same issues exist. Locked in poor pattern with no sign of an end
  4. Brian5671
    Like Bluewave said-the 11-15 day range is not all that accurate, it gets more play these days with the rise of social media.
  5. Brian5671
    Need a wholesale pattern reshuffle...not sure that's in the cards this year-Strong PV over the pole, No Atlantic help, Pacific is terrible and we have a strong PAC jet. I'm sure we'll see cooldowns like we're having now and maybe a minor to moderate snow event here and there (hopefully), but I think it's about time to toss in the towel for anything sustained for a while.
  6. Brian5671
    something better to talk about?
  7. Brian5671
    Good post by Ryan Maue about the pile of garbage models have been this winter: Ryan Maue @RyanMaue I'm taking even more interest in Weekly weather forecasting since much of it lately is awful. Forecasters have strong biases that aren't rectified leading to repeated busts. So, is winter canceled or not?
  8. Brian5671
    we can live without a -NAO or even AO but a +EPO with those 2 will just be more of the same
  9. Brian5671
    it sucks for snow around here and that's what most will care about. A day 10 rainstorm amidst a few colder days (and let's be honest this cold is nothing to write home about) is nothing to get excited about. Sorry. Last January's cold, although fleeting (nothing to block it in) was much more impressive.
  10. Brian5671
    Yep, figured that. Time to root for a Feb 06 redux-that would take care of the 20 inch problem.
  11. Brian5671
    what was last year? Had to be very close to 20 then.
  12. Brian5671
    couple snow showers here with temps around 45-47
  13. Brian5671
    As someone said, if it doesn't change by the end of January it probably won't.
  14. Brian5671
    Ouch. If we can't hold onto the cold beyond a few days, we're in trouble (and even the cold next few days into early next week is not anything that's crazy for Jan) Last Jan had some short lived but much more impressive cold.
  15. Brian5671
    Christ. That won't bring anything wintry....
  16. Brian5671
    what's impressive is that Dec '19 had a cold first 3 weeks, so most of the warmth was in 4 weeks....
  17. Brian5671
    ok deal.
  18. Brian5671
    Fair argument
  19. Brian5671
    it's winter, it's often windy
  20. Brian5671
    NAM trending drier-only about .3 to .4 of QPF today's run
  21. Brian5671
    Blizzard of 96. Was forecast to miss NYC until about 24 hrs out....great example there.
  22. Brian5671
    COD would be ok-we just can't have it shoot back to 4/5/6 like it did every time last winter or we're in trouble.
  23. Brian5671
    sometimes persistence forecasting is the way to go-maybe we do change, but many times, breaking a bad pattern is tough to do.
  24. Brian5671
    so far he's been right-pile of garbage up to today.
  25. Brian5671
    analogs are tough these days-different base state, warmer oceans etc.
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