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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. OP models are a joke after 5-6 days, but it's amazing to see them with zero snow for us for the entirety of the run after this weekend. Not even a 384 hr fantasy blizzard
  2. Brutal out there with the wind today-19 degrees with 35mph gusts
  3. It's not all that different from last year. (it's actually warmer) The same issues exist. Locked in poor pattern with no sign of an end
  4. Like Bluewave said-the 11-15 day range is not all that accurate, it gets more play these days with the rise of social media.
  5. Need a wholesale pattern reshuffle...not sure that's in the cards this year-Strong PV over the pole, No Atlantic help, Pacific is terrible and we have a strong PAC jet. I'm sure we'll see cooldowns like we're having now and maybe a minor to moderate snow event here and there (hopefully), but I think it's about time to toss in the towel for anything sustained for a while.
  6. Good post by Ryan Maue about the pile of garbage models have been this winter: Ryan Maue @RyanMaue I'm taking even more interest in Weekly weather forecasting since much of it lately is awful. Forecasters have strong biases that aren't rectified leading to repeated busts. So, is winter canceled or not?
  7. we can live without a -NAO or even AO but a +EPO with those 2 will just be more of the same
  8. it sucks for snow around here and that's what most will care about. A day 10 rainstorm amidst a few colder days (and let's be honest this cold is nothing to write home about) is nothing to get excited about. Sorry. Last January's cold, although fleeting (nothing to block it in) was much more impressive.
  9. Yep, figured that. Time to root for a Feb 06 redux-that would take care of the 20 inch problem.
  10. As someone said, if it doesn't change by the end of January it probably won't.
  11. Ouch. If we can't hold onto the cold beyond a few days, we're in trouble (and even the cold next few days into early next week is not anything that's crazy for Jan) Last Jan had some short lived but much more impressive cold.
  12. what's impressive is that Dec '19 had a cold first 3 weeks, so most of the warmth was in 4 weeks....
  13. NAM trending drier-only about .3 to .4 of QPF today's run
  14. Blizzard of 96. Was forecast to miss NYC until about 24 hrs out....great example there.
  15. COD would be ok-we just can't have it shoot back to 4/5/6 like it did every time last winter or we're in trouble.
  16. sometimes persistence forecasting is the way to go-maybe we do change, but many times, breaking a bad pattern is tough to do.
  17. analogs are tough these days-different base state, warmer oceans etc.
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