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Everything posted by Brian5671
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
NAM nailed it with the sleet getting up here. Hard to tell what we have. Still have moderate snow but guessing 7 or 8 inches on the ground. Very windy and 23 degrees- 1,011 replies
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off and on mixing here too-RGEM says that goes on for a few hrs then back to all snow-another 8-10 inches LOL
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unless the back end really performs I don't see S CT getting more than 8 inches. Mixing with sleet here already. (credit the NAM on that) Granted I'll take that and run any day, but the radar really fell apart in the last 2 hrs.
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3" here, 23/21 heavy snow
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
it's here- with some wind as well. We have about 3 inches. 23 degrees as well- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
there could also be a change, but it could be brief, like an hour or two-then the storms gets east of one's latitude and winds become more northerly- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Brian5671 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
wow I'm across the sound and we're down to 22- 1,011 replies
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he might be talking about the models for later?
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sleet will be the wild card for sure. southern edge of the snow zone most at risk of course....
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None of that really matters-even if it did the storm is at night. Dews are so low that once precip starts temps will crash.....
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yeah that's what put Boston and souther VT and NH back into the game
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if the storm performs to its high end some places could get 1/2 to 3/4 of their seasonal total in one night
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that's the best bet-back end snows are rare.
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The GFS is a great model if it shows snow.
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will likely come down to a nowcast for some areas
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NAM map-I'm sure some of this is sleet
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10 inches would be a third of our seasonal total in 1 day
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some of the comments are hilarious "this was never an NYC storm" after 3 days of hyping a blizzard....
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everyone's back in after all the moaning this morning...LOL
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it's had that for several runs-some sort of feedback issue
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a thump followed by a dry slot is way better than a change to heavy rain. Take it and run, it's 12/17.....
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Models are tools. You can't lock anything in more than 24 hrs out.
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it was intereresting-someone pointed out yesterday that NYC never got big (12+) totals when Central PA/State College did. Looks to hold true again.
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yeah-we did ok in that storm but it was less than expected due to the sleet/ZR. I'll take a redux of that storm though!
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