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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    LOL. So Sad, I've barely looked at any models in the last month-it's the same result every time...
  2. Brian5671
    ENDLESS TORCH
  3. Brian5671
    areas north of NYC did ok on the 1/18 event-locally here I was all snow despite the storm being a cutter. Having a great arctic airmass in place helped.
  4. Brian5671
    I'll give him a little credit this year-he bailed early and actually said that the warmth of the last 5 years needs to be respected. I suspect his forecast next winter will be a bit more humble.
  5. Brian5671
    LR forecasting is difficult at best. Look at the super strong PV this year plus the warm water north of Australia-both were late breaking events that helped cause us to be warm and snowless. Good luck seeing something like that more than a month out....
  6. Brian5671
    Yep, I'm skipping JB and all the Twitter cold/ice age stuff going forward....
  7. Brian5671
    more like a lakes cutter with rain to Canada-not even close for anyone
  8. Brian5671
    Tremendous. While it's not what we all wanted, it's literally spot on.
  9. Brian5671
    What's interesting here is the PV-could anyone have predicted its strength last fall? Wildcards like that can sink a forecast. On the flip side, 2010-11 was a strong Nina and many forecasts were not great-yet we had one of the snowiest 40 days in history due to some well timed blocking.
  10. Brian5671
    One model (can't remember which) is showing a strong Nina starting this fall-that would not be a good development.
  11. Brian5671
    what? Yesterday you said it was coming now it's not?
  12. Brian5671
    Past few summers have not been overly hot either. The warmth has been concentrated in the fall and winter.....
  13. Brian5671
    if the system bombs, I'd agree. Verbatim it's not that strong and you end up with mid 30's and white rain in all liklihood.
  14. Brian5671
    That was impressive-below freezing for almost 2 weeks and then a blizzard to end the cold snap....
  15. Brian5671
    it's in the mid to upper 30's at the surface-that won't cut it
  16. Brian5671
    That's our likely window-next week will have a crappy airmass, I would expect something if we get it the first week in March before the pattern goes back to what we've had all winter
  17. Brian5671
    yep, winter was canceled in mid January-go outside and do something productive instead of tracking fantasy day 7+ storms that never verify - definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result
  18. Brian5671
    going back to late 2015 we are in an incredible torch....look at the records, almost zero below normal winter months....you have to be realistic here
  19. Brian5671
    and warmth verifies most of the time chief. Do you ever learn?
  20. Brian5671
    er um, you do that all the time....
  21. Brian5671
    IF and a big if we can get at least a -1SD NAO we might have a chance, but a fair amount of members keep it in positive territory...but based on seasonal trends (zero coastal lows too) I''ll be skeptical not to mention a marginal airmass at the end of Feb-meh.
  22. Brian5671
    that'll be over Detroit in a few days...
  23. Brian5671
    and the March storms could have been big, but the trapped airmass became too stale/warm to support snow....
  24. Brian5671
    another temp bust on the high side...49 here.
  25. Brian5671
    Last spring there was a cold pool off the NE coast-no sign of that this year and no sign of a -NAO which dominated last spring. Looks like a very different setup. Feb 89 is a good match to this month, that spring-how was it? Can't remember myself
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