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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    COD would be ok-we just can't have it shoot back to 4/5/6 like it did every time last winter or we're in trouble.
  2. Brian5671
    sometimes persistence forecasting is the way to go-maybe we do change, but many times, breaking a bad pattern is tough to do.
  3. Brian5671
    so far he's been right-pile of garbage up to today.
  4. Brian5671
    analogs are tough these days-different base state, warmer oceans etc.
  5. Brian5671
    Agree partly-but a good -EPO would make the AO and NAO less important
  6. Brian5671
    meanwhile JB says ice age: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h Been banging the drum since the holidays about the big reversal coming , the transition Jan 16-20 then rest of winter cold and stormy . Here are the last 30 days, and the JMA starting the 19th for the next 28 days, cfsv2 for the next 30. Analogs said it, models agreeing
  7. Brian5671
    Judah Cohen says it's about over: Judah Cohen @judah47 · 13m To further elaborate completion of this troposphere-stratosphere coupling favors multiple weeks of positive #Arctic Oscillaton and overall mild weather and relatively light #snowfall. At this point hard for #winter to recover.
  8. Brian5671
    N and W for sure on the higher end.
  9. Brian5671
    the city is not getting 6 from this. Maybe 2 to possibly 3 inches. (which would be a huge win)
  10. Brian5671
  11. Brian5671
    even after this weekend's historic warmth, 45 felt frigid Monday AM
  12. Brian5671
    NYC was +10 going into today. Yeah, it has not been below freezing here for 6 days even at night-crazy
  13. Brian5671
    Also, anyone think the southern hemisphere wackiness is causing some things to go awry here?
  14. Brian5671
    I was around for the 80's (and the 90's which were mostly horrid but not as horrid as the 80's) lol. not everything needs to be memorable, but some were tossing around "78 and '15 for analogs... ""
  15. Brian5671
    Nice storm on the GFS next weekend...too far out to get too excited but it does have a nice track
  16. Brian5671
    Fair point. If there's good -EPO as well that'll do it too.
  17. Brian5671
    Early March is fine-but once you get past 3/10 or so, daytime accums get tough unless it's really heavy or windy/cold. March 18 was awesome but had that been in Feb, we would have had twice the snow easily
  18. Brian5671
    with no ATL blocking, I would not say cutters are gone-even with cold highs, there's the risk a storm slips b/w highs and goes to the lakes. Agree it's a better pattern, but can't agree that it's a good or great pattern.
  19. Brian5671
    been hearing about a great pattern for 2 years...not much to show for it. Like Allsnow said above the chances for an 05 or 15 recovery are slim. Hopefully we can get a snowstorm or two...I'd be happy with that at this point. Anything more than that would be a huge win.
  20. Brian5671
    Congrats! Best day to have a kid-you get the tax credit for the whole year! LOL. Mine are 10 (twins)-goes fast, enjoy every minute despite some long days and sleepless nights
  21. Brian5671
    3 of the last 5 Marches have featured above normal snows here. If you go back to pre-2010, snow was scarce in March but more plentiful in December-interesting how there's certain patterns over a period of time.
  22. Brian5671
    for what?
  23. Brian5671
    How about an Easter HECS? LOL
  24. Brian5671
    it was a weird storm-gave ACY something like 15 inches but 20 miles inland was nothing. I was living outside of philly at the time and forecasts were 6-12 and we didn't see a flake. It was around 2/20/89 or something like that. Not much else other than that-it was colder though once we got to to Feb 89. Dec 88-Jan 89 were infernos with little to no snow.
  25. Brian5671
    seeing 93 and 07 in there are interesting. 89 was garbage the rest of the way for the most part.
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