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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    No cold high to the north is the other issue here
  2. Brian5671
    The 80's had some incredible cold shots. Alot of cold with bare ground back then as it was hard to get anything to line up with a storm (+NAO/AO pattern then) We've seen none of that the past 2 years. I did tell my kids the same thing this AM when they asked why it hasn't snowed much...I said, "welcome to my childhood"!
  3. Brian5671
    nothing to support a snowstorm-every telly remains unfavorable.
  4. Brian5671
    if the seasonal trend is any indicator-those projected temps will warm as we get closer
  5. Brian5671
    same ol pattern-any cold shot either doesn't happen or moderates as it gets closer in time. GFS/GEFS terrible with the LR cold bias. Best to stick with Euro/EPS
  6. Brian5671
    not a bad look-if (big if) we can get on the right side of the gradient b/w the SE ridge and the cold air, the storm track could work for us-models show the corridor from TX to NE to be wetter than normal next few weeks.
  7. Brian5671
    the third reason is the AO/NAO-I wonder if either the MJO or the PV influenced that at all?
  8. Brian5671
    that warm water N of Australia was a warning shot that our winter was going to have issues (warm water would point to the MJO wanting to go back to 5/6 which it has now done twice)
  9. Brian5671
    When I see a cold pattern, I'll go cold, the last 3 years have been an inferno...deal with it. Just because the EPS has a solution you don't like is not reason to call it a terrible model when it has the highest verification score....had the model showed an ice age I'm sure you'd be saying it's great.
  10. Brian5671
    How many times has it snowed this winter?....yeah, I'll go with more futility. EPS is the highest verifying model to answer your question. Ignore it at your own risk
  11. Brian5671
    Pattern is so hostile-too much to fix...even if the pattern became 50% better, it might not help....confidence growing that we just torch right into March
  12. Brian5671
    fitting for this winter
  13. Brian5671
    let me guess a cutter?
  14. Brian5671
    11-12 was bone dry-40's every day with barely even a rain event and then the super torch in March with a few days in the 70's to near 80. This year is basically a wetter version of that year with the same well above normal temps
  15. Brian5671
    Also-no snow in coastal locations hurts them. The "backyard snow effect" makes people want to ski/board when they see snow in their backyard-not much of that this year around here.
  16. Brian5671
    decent model trends today with next weekend looking colder and now the weeklies-still fantasy until we're within 5 days IMO
  17. Brian5671
    I would actually enjoy a warm March and April if that's to be the case. We'd likely see temps in the 60's and 70's if you take what we're getting now and extrapolate it forward
  18. Brian5671
    could go for 3 clunkers in a row and forecast it for next year.
  19. Brian5671
    about 3 weeks after the rest of us knew it was over....
  20. Brian5671
    Possible, however there's a lot less cold this year. This has been an incredible torch
  21. Brian5671
    96-97, 97-98, 98-99 have to be up there....
  22. Brian5671
    based on what? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. There's currently nothing that supports a "snowy" March
  23. Brian5671
    Red paint sale
  24. Brian5671
    whoopdee do, 20 minutes of non accumulating snow after 2 inches of rain
  25. Brian5671
    daffodils are pushing through the ground here. No ice on any lakes, even the parking lot piles from the 1/18 event are going fast....just no sign of winter at all...
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