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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    I think worst case the balloons run close to the ground.
  2. Brian5671
    Yep and I remember the MJO kept correcting to 4-5-6 which is horrible in the winter. Hopefully we can see some 7-8-1 this year
  3. Brian5671
    yeah-they were worthless last winter...but just saw elsewhere that they are cold for the mid to late December time frame-take it for what it's worth-they're a tool, nothing more
  4. Brian5671
    Today's? I have not.
  5. Brian5671
    AO going +, NAO+, -PNA Good luck with anything sustained with that
  6. Brian5671
    mainly NYC north and east but interesting nonetheless...still 7 days away though
  7. Brian5671
    yeah I think Dec is shot....
  8. Brian5671
    Not really. Looks like a repeat of last year with the cold out west and storm track up to the lakes...
  9. Brian5671
    this board (and others) will be a wreck if we have a repeat of last year...although with that said-there's more caution this year....
  10. Brian5671
    of course but climo is low. What does NYC average in December-3 inches?
  11. Brian5671
    even if we get a favorable pattern it's still on the early side for snow/ice....
  12. Brian5671
    looks like starts overnight Saturday-both NAMS have it going all day Sunday, but there's a sharp cutoff to the NW so any SE correction would take the rain out a bit earlier. Amounts are forecast to be b/w an inch and possibly up to 2 inches in spots
  13. Brian5671
    you want "some" SE ridge-that's often the storm track along the northern edge of the ridge. Too much blocking and it's southern sliders and mid-altantic specials. 93-94 had a weak to moderate SE ridge which got us multiple moderate snow and ice events almost every week.
  14. Brian5671
    Last year was all day 8-10 head fakes-have to hope this year is different...
  15. Brian5671
    looks like January!
  16. Brian5671
    the model agreement on the pattern is intriguing but I'll wait-it's still in the longer term....
  17. Brian5671
    you know it's going to be warm when you fold up shop....
  18. Brian5671
    too early to say-something to watch as we move up in time, we're still 9 days out.
  19. Brian5671
    I agree-that's why I remain skeptical
  20. Brian5671
    Judah Cohen writes today about a possible SSW in mid December this year-time will tell....
  21. Brian5671
    That last Euro image looks like coast to coast cold could develop especially with some blocking
  22. Brian5671
    and the general public just laps it up like a thirsty dog-every winter is going to be "severe" and cold and snowy....
  23. Brian5671
    agree-although I think 2013 was very dry and we did well. We had a very wet October this year so that's good. November has been dry but that often comes with the arctic (dry) cold.
  24. Brian5671
    conjecture at this point....models change in a heartbeat. Also, who wants cold in November? It rarely yields anything. Let the cold pattern wait til 12/1 or even 1/1.
  25. Brian5671
    yeah that year and 11/12 featured dry warm conditions which started around 11/1 and never really wavered except for a 10 day period in mid to late January those years.
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