True. The other thing I don't like is the strong PV over the pole. Want to see that weaken or get broken up. I don't see alot to get excited about honestly.
we're 2.5 days out-today's model trends are certainly a big disappointment. If we miss this week and early next week, it's possible we go virtually snowless for Jan unless the very end of January delivers. The 80's are back!
it's amazing how warm water north of a continent thousands of miles away can wreck our winter....oh well, going to enjoy the warmth, if it's not going to snow, give me 60 degrees
even in crappy winters like 97-98 we get a freak snowstorm that ruins the record-I think that year may have been close to 0 before the 3/22/98 storm dropped 4-6 inches to ruin it.
I meant after this initial passage into 4/5...so 4/5 by 1/10, then collapse into COD and then back to 4/5 as we move forward. (as Allsnow notes-if that happens, we likely have a clunker on our hands)
nope but snowcover gets harder and harder to maintain as we head through Feb and beyond. That's why winter '10-11 was special-the goods came during prime low sun angle and coldest temps. Minimal melting
I honestly think the use of analogs from 50-75 years ago is less effective with different base states of oceans/atmosphere. His LR forecasts rely heavily on those analogs
Last year had little to no snow, how is this year different? Same problem, poor MJO plus a lousy PAC, same result-rainy and average to mild with some cold thrown in but as soon as storm comes it's an inland or cutter track.
the NAO will have more of an influence late plus we have the warm NW ATL waters which often help us late as well- so maybe we can get some big snow events late like we have the past few years....