Itryatgolf70
-
Posts
379 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Itryatgolf70
-
Larry, I would take a -epo/+pna 99/100 times over a -ao/nao anyway of the week.
-
My concern, and I'm just giving you my opinion, is that the niño won't couple because the atmosphere and ocean are out of sync currently acting more like a weak niño despite the strong niño. If the -qbo will help get a blockier pattern established this winter, I say bring it on!!
-
Imo, the real true cold signal is a -epo/neutral PNA. Definitely can score in that type of setup east of the rockies.
-
Like most winters, it will come down to the ao/nao. I'm hoping they are at least somewhat negative this winter and hoping-epo as well
-
Ray, do we have alot of examples of a pretty negative pdo and a strong niño? Just wondering and the outcomes in winter?
-
From what I understand, the atmosphere is more of a weak niño response currently. It probably will change as we get closer to start of winter though. Mjo 4-6 is bad for us, which we was in during the amazing warm dec 2015, but we got lucky and jan-march gave us a few opportunities
-
We shall see once November arrives if it still indicates that because we have seen great November forecasts turn into non cold winters
-
I also believe we had a SSW event in that time frame late Jan through mid February 2021 that allowed for a -ao that was impressive. I must admit that the main cold plunge was further west due to the -pna as well. I'm in the mid south and we had snow falling at 9 degrees, which don't happen here very often.
-
2014-15 was a weak niño and this one will be much stronger! We didn't have a -nao but the -epo saved our arses lol
-
The euro seasonal is out for September if Carver or someone wants to post it.
-
Is this your basic el niño pattern, which is warmer early and cooler later in winter?
-
500mb charts will be interesting when they come out
-
Carver, go check out the CanSIPS mslp charts that were posted in the weather and forecasting discussion! Interesting so far
-
Come November, if it's still showing that, people be more happy than a sissy in a boot camp
-
Ray, depending on the PDO. Big factor. Hopefully it can turn more neutral instead of raging negative.
-
I maybe be incorrect, but back in the 60s and 70s the PDO was negative at times and we had colder winters.
-
Imo, I believe the base of the niño will be the most important this winter.
-
I feel the same way. If the niño don't shift west and stays east based, the chances of wintry weather will decrease substantially imo. Especially as strong as it looks to be heading into fall and winter. A -qbo can only help so much and we need alot to com together. We shall see
-
Winter 2023-2024
Itryatgolf70 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
One more thing, I'm assuming it's too early to tell where the tropical forcing may set up and it's not determined by the base, which I mean the most warming is east based currently? Thanks in advance -
I think we should look at the seasonal stuff at this time last year and see which ones were remotely close to what ultimately happened this past winter imo
-
Winter 2023-2024
Itryatgolf70 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Hello Griteater. If the tropical forcing is further west this winter, would that increase the chances of a colder winter, despite the strength of the niño? -
Carver, from what I understand, I believe we want to see central or west based niño with a -qbo for winter. Typically east based isn't good for cold weather here. 09-10 was similar to what I just mentioned.
- 295 replies
-
- 1
-
-
- severe weather
- frosts
- (and 5 more)
-
Hello Ray. Imo, if the niño is more central based, despite the strength of it, we will have a few winter events and especially if the qbo is easterly or negative. It's still early.
-
Hello Carver. I think if we see a strong niño this winter, we will want to see a -qbo to have any chance to get a colder winter. We had a few opportunities back in the 2015-16 winter, despite a super El niño.
-
Hello guys. I typically don't post much this time of the year, but I'm hoping the niño don't get too strong this fall and winter but if it does, perhaps we will get a -qbo or a favorable blocking pattern that allows for some cold air at times, which very little happened last winter. I'm in Tennessee and we got a mini ice storm in February and that big Christmas cold blast but it definitely overall wasn't cold.