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Itryatgolf70

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Everything posted by Itryatgolf70

  1. Itryatgolf70
    Hello everyone. I have a question. Most should be familiar with this. What happened to 33andrain? I tried accessing but it didn't pull up. Anyone know the current website?
  2. Itryatgolf70
    I was hoping for one last horrah but don't look like I will get it lol. Hopefully next winter will give us a few more opportunities. Imo, the key is if the niño is central based, it will typically be pretty cold here and with the right blocking of course. Long ways to go
  3. Itryatgolf70
    If the epo goes negative, it will be more believable imo. It is the king of cold.
  4. Itryatgolf70
    Like I mentioned, the key is the epo and tropical forcing. All I'm saying is time we get a favorable pattern, most likely too late except higher elevations, but we shall see
  5. Itryatgolf70
    If we get a -epo combined with ao and nao, I will be more excited. I believe that could give us one last hoorah
  6. Itryatgolf70
    I guess the SSW isn't really going to get us cold. I was hoping it would but the west trough is going to ruin it imo. Our best chance is if the epo can go negative. Kinda a bad break to have the -nao with a west trough. Unless things get going in beg to mid March. I still feel the real cold will come when it's too late for most.
  7. Itryatgolf70
    A guy at another forum said all teleconnections are going negative, which he said is very rare. If we do get cold, I hope there is precipitation with it. Imo, to have two monster -nao and no cold air from it is pretty unusual if it indeed happens like that
  8. Itryatgolf70
    My concern is by the time a colder pattern kicks in, will be too late for most outside higher elevations. We expect it to be warm in la niña in the south with occasional unreal cold episodes
  9. Itryatgolf70
    My concern is that this ssw kicks in when its too late for most, but with fast mjo progression, all bets are off. I found that interesting also on fast loop through the phases.
  10. Itryatgolf70
    The SSW looks impressive but hopefully if a -ao happens, it don't happen too late. We can always get snow at night I suppose in spring lol
  11. Itryatgolf70
    If the SSW, if one does happen, doesn't propagate to the troposphere, don't think most would want to see it because most likely delaying spring.
  12. Itryatgolf70
    The euro did well with precipitation in different waves but terrible in temps for sure. Definitely played catchup
  13. Itryatgolf70
    Only concern I have is we will probably get a SSW but if it happens later rather than sooner, cold air will still be tough due to too late in season and will limit severe weather chances also. BTW, the ice event was fun, but my area missed out on most of it unfortunately
  14. Itryatgolf70
    It's interesting that the main models have differing opinions in regards to the mjo. Can anyone tell which one is the correct solution? Satellite tell alot for people sometimes. I'm hoping we have a few more opportunities at winter precipitation before mid March
  15. Itryatgolf70
    Jomo, I know this is off topic compared to what's going on currently, but do we want the euro depiction of the mjo moving forward instead of the gefs, which has the mjo into phase 4? I believe 4-6 are warm phases for sure
  16. Itryatgolf70
    I've been following this strat warming for a few weeks now. I will be shocked if we don't get a big plunge of cold air with that sometime in February heading southeast.
  17. Itryatgolf70
    I experienced ice storm feb 1994 and it was bad. 4-6 inches ice and we was out of school for a week. While we was out, I played golf every day in Memphis at the time. Places sw of me in nw Mississippi saw close to 8 inches ice
  18. Itryatgolf70
    Good luck to them Holston.
  19. Itryatgolf70
    I agree. We have a strong jet, more typical of strong El niño so it will be tough. Our best chance imo is with the SSW event if we get one but there are alot of if's with that.
  20. Itryatgolf70
    Pna is getting overwhelmed by the jet. If you want to know the honest truth, winter is over for us. Too many factors that supports that. I know it's premature say that, but that's imo. Last winter we had more of an east based lean in la niña but this year is central to west based. A totally different animal. Let's see how close I am once mid March is here
  21. Itryatgolf70
    Carver, I think the consensus now is that the mjo will get overwhelmed from other factors, especially in phase 8. Hopefully things change by mid-end of january so we will have a few more opportunities at cold and snow or ice
  22. Itryatgolf70
    I know cosgrove today said the mjo should connect to polar westerlies about 10 days from now but that's speculation at this point. The pac jet still looks intense. Hopefully the mjo is enough to get the jet to retract. We will know most likely by mid January
  23. Itryatgolf70
    Carver, check out Alan Huffman's post on twitter when you get a chance. It makes alot of sense imo
  24. Itryatgolf70
    A guy at 33andrain.com said the mjo won't effect the atmosphere unless it gets into a decent amplitude when it gets there
  25. Itryatgolf70
    Carver, I hope we get another opportunity at a cold enough pattern here that supports winter storm opportunity. If the mjo actually gets into the colder phases, the models should respond to that. Hopefully we aren't chasing unicorns all winter lol. It was nice seeing it cold in December, but we are in winter and hate to waste winter on warmer weather.
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