Itryatgolf70
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Everything posted by Itryatgolf70
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Does any seasonal model have more accuracy over the other or does it really just come down to the month prior for more accuracy?
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Hopefully by next month most will have a better idea on what kind of winter we will more than likely see develop.
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Why was 1994-95 winter so warm? What was the main culprit in that winter?
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This is kinda weather related but I get on twitter occasionally and HM or Anthony Masiello hasn't been on recently. Does anyone know have an idea why? Think his last post there was end of August. I always follow his insights about weather patterns
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What are your thoughts on winter in terms of if you believe it will be a mix of both niño and niña all winter or will one eventually win out? Just curious
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Imo, it corresponds to an El niño shifting east to west, which typically is cooler east of the rockies. Hopefully convection will hang out around the dateline at some point this winter.
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2002-2003 was decent winter. In my area we unfortunately didn't get many winter events.
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-pdo makes sense with trough out west, especially start of winter. Million dollar question is how long trough out west lasts? Imo, one would want to see the niño become more central based moving forward to have a back loaded winter, which is typical of niños. One would also think with the stronger niño that would force pdo less negative. Lots to iron out
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I personally hope Oct and Nov both blowtorch and dec-feb be colder than normal imo
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None of the strong niños had a -pdo this intense, except in 1876. There really are alot of conflicting signals and more than normal this winter
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Paul Pastelok is pretty good overall. Like he said that each niño is different. Overall, this winter will be warm, but how warm is the million dollar question. Most are hoping we can get enough moisture and cold air at least one time this winter at some point.
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He said colder back half like most typical niños, but he said if the forcing is around the Dateline, we will freeze most likely but obviously still early to know for sure
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He don't seem to realize that the sample size for this is almost non existent to really compare anything to, except 1876 from what I've gathered. This winter may ultimately be warm, but imo it's still too early to guarantee anything because of the uniqueness moving forward of so many factors
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I didn't think about it. I was just curious mainly to find out if we had any opportunities to have a colder winter at any point this winter. Since we have quite a few conflicting signals.
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Like I mentioned earlier, there will be alot of competing forces this winter and I believe more than normal imo. Even in 1876, the pdo trended less negative and be interesting if it didn't follow that same progress
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Dr. Roundy is a good friend of mine. We spoke yesterday afternoon. It's difficult to reach him lol. He told me that it will be very interesting with not many analogs to look at and with so many competing forces this winter. The pdo will probably trend less negative as winter approaches. He said definitely a trend west which is atypical of niños and probably not as west as 2015-16 but he said still too early to know for sure
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Dr. Roundy is a good friend of mine. We spoke yesterday afternoon. It's difficult to reach him lol. He told me that it will be very interesting with not many analogs to look at and with so many competing forces this winter. The pdo will probably trend less negative as winter approaches. He said definitely a trend west which is atypical of niños and probably not as west as 2015-16 but he said still too early to know for sure.
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This winter will be interesting in terms of -pdo and el niño combo which the pdo being incredibly negative currently especially since 1876 last one we had
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In 2015-16, one of the strongest niños on record, shifted west towards 180w as winter evolved and this one currently is intense and it's imperative to watch to see if that occurs moving forward as well
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I think we have that niña/niño combo attributing to it currently
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I'm wondering if the niño stays east based, which I don't want it to, will a -qbo even matter for us? I guess the norm moving forward is warm every winter, but we all are hoping we have opportunities at cold and snow every winter. Supposedly there are more contradictory factors than normal this year for winter
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Chris, ultimately don't we want to see region 3.4 warmer than 1.2 whatever way it can happen by winter or no?
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Carver, I think it's a quick cool shot due to a +pna spike but may be first taste of fall for many
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I know this probably is a no brainer, but we want to see moving forward less of an east based look and more central based look with the niño if we can get that to happen. I would feel better if that can occur whatever is needed for it to actually occur
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From what I've gathered, laniña is more suited for tropical storms and or hurricanes and the opposite is true for niños. We have a strong niño on paper, but the atmosphere and oceans aren't coupled yet and imo have led to more niña like conditions, which is a breeding ground for hurricane activity. The sheer in the Caribbean and Atlantic is very low for a niño
