Itryatgolf70
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Everything posted by Itryatgolf70
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You may have already mentioned this, but what analogs closely match for this winter?
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The AAM is negative so that in itself correlates to niña like atmosphere and until it becomes positive, imo we will continue to have laniña conditions and atmosphere. Admittedly, I'm no expert like alot on here, but I do know some things and me being optimistic, especially during winter, am hoping we have a few cold shots and moisture time up well also.
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I hope we can get the epo and ao to behave at times this winter and be negative so we can have a few opportunities
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I still feel if the forcing remains around the dateline or 180w, we should have opportunities at cold and snow this winter. Also, what's interesting is the AAM is negative, which isn't elnino. It's more niña than anything else
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Hi Raindance. It may be winter cancel if we indeed have mjo in phases 6-7 this winter, but still early to be definitive quite yet. Imo, if the forcing stays around the dateline or 180w, I still believe we will have our opportunity at cold and snow east of the rockies this winter
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Ray, wasn't the 97-98 and 15-16 winter with a +PDO? This one is intense, pretty close with them, but with a -PDO. 97-98 was east based and 15-16 was e-central based and didn't get cold until mid January. Interesting times upcoming with this one being a -PDO
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All I will do is hope the winter is favorable for winter weather here at some point with a few weeks opportunity. I believe the AAM is still negative and that's why I mentioned it's more like laniña than el niño a few days ago. Not sure what will need to happen for the AAM to trend positive, which is more of niño pattern
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You have to say they hit the idea of the Aleutian ridge and there was troughing for the majority of the winter out west last winter
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The owners or whoever makes decisions for the weather channel screwed it up by having these weird shows at night instead of actual live weather! It makes ZERO sense on what they do now lol
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Most time, but not all time the AO will be crazy positive when a SSW is developing so usually that's a good sign it may get cold if that happens. Big spikes in teleconnections
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I think we are having a laniña hangover from last year still having an effect
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Another thing to consider is we don't want it to happen too late either like last winter where only a select few locations, mainly in the north got any effects from the SSW. Me personally would like to see it early rather than later
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It kinda blows my mind that the models can even predict that far out with any reasonable accuracy because patterns are constantly in flux, meaning changing quite often, especially with changing wavelengths.
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I didn't see it mentioned, but 12zgfs has a nice snow event for some in about 9 days
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How was feb 1977? Guess it warmed up by then? What about 77-78 winter? I was born in 79 but I've heard stories
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It's crazy that JB always mentions those winters that this winter will be like those winters lol. I was excited with the 2013-14 winter. It was amazing here
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If we had computers back in the 70s winters, it would have been ALOT of long sleepless nights looking at models and posting like crazy lol
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I know they mentioned 1976-77 with it being ep, but it probably wasn't this strong like this niño is. That was legendary from what I've been told
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Anything to avoid consistent troughing out west like last winter would be nice
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I know it's hard to predict this far out, but I hope we don't have a cool fall and flip to warm winter. Hopefully mother nature will provide us a few opportunities at cold and snow this winter, at least more than last winter
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I feel like the Nov update from the seasonal models will be telling for what winter may have in store. Of course, not fool proof, but a great tool to have a decent idea most likely.
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In reality, a person can't predict the nao/ao unless within 2 weeks out with any real accuracy.
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1987-88 was overall a decent winter, especially jan and Feb. Niño also I believe. I just hope its colder than people believe for this winter
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If the NAO averages neutral, we would want to see two possibilities imo. Either AO be pretty negative or pacific be favorable to deliver cold east of the rockies. Different year, different set of possibilities
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I would do anything if we can keep a -epo going during winter in particular but fall is ok also. I still feel like we have both niña and niño currently but just imo.
