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Itryatgolf70

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Everything posted by Itryatgolf70

  1. Itryatgolf70
    That's a long time to wait on a more favorable pattern IF it even verifies.
  2. Itryatgolf70
    I wished we could get a phenomenal change in the pattern that would get us in the ice age to have colder stormier winters again. Or at least more cold winters than warm winters
  3. Itryatgolf70
    Hate to be berenger of bad news, but If we don't get a system by end of the week, at minimum we got until mid January before pattern becomes more favorable for winter weather. I'm hearing too extended EAMT event is going to happen and flood the US with warm air.
  4. Itryatgolf70
    Still my concern is cold but dry due to no sw flow. Maybe that changes in January. Stay optimistic
  5. Itryatgolf70
    My concern is the cold overwhelming everything and it's cold but dry. I think we then wait until mid-end January for our next opportunity. I know it sounds crazy, but just my two cents
  6. Itryatgolf70
    Jax, hopefully the mjo can continue to move along and not get stuck in warm phases or stall there. I know its la niña, but trying to be optimistic.
  7. Itryatgolf70
    I don't think they should have upgraded the gfs. It seems that It was doing better then than now imo
  8. Itryatgolf70
    Holston, I'm hoping we see more convection in the western hemisphere eventually over the IO moving forward. Which model or ensemble handles the mjo the best? Just curious
  9. Itryatgolf70
    It's kinda amazing to me that we have a pretty negative -ao/nao and still can't get cold lol. It shows you the importance of the pacific to be somewhat favorable. Not sure if a split would do us good with the above diagram you posted. This is my two cents. I believe we need to focus on the mjo and where the main convection is and what needs to happen to get it into the western hemisphere. If it stays in the eastern hemisphere, most likely we will be chasing unicorns all winter. Something to think about.
  10. Itryatgolf70
    If the mjo gets out of the IO like the gefs has it currently, we will be in better shape imo. If it's stalls or loops back I'm warm phases, we may be in a world of hurt lol. Let hope it can make it to the western hemisphere
  11. Itryatgolf70
    HM or Anthony masiello said we should have one more opportunity at a -nao after this one if he is correct. Main thing to get a pattern that favors winter storms and cold here
  12. Itryatgolf70
    I personally hope we can get into enough of a decent pacific so we can at least have a few opportunities this winter instead of the petferbial chasing unicorns all winter. It's somewhat ok now because winter technically isn't here, but we don't want to be singing this same old song and dance a month from now wondering where winter is lol
  13. Itryatgolf70
    The eps has a +wpo and epo trending positive but hopefully we will get what we need to get the pacific in better shape because it don't look like the -ao/nao is having much luck unfortunately. I'm not as smart as you guys are with weather, but if the gefs is correct with the mjo progression, it's going to be a while before it gets where we want it. Something to think about
  14. Itryatgolf70
    I believe a +EAMT would help if we can get another one or a few of them this winter. I heard flare-up in IO is having an influence on sensible weather also.
  15. Itryatgolf70
    Griteater has a knowledge of weather. He posts on various weather platforms. I think the concensus is the mjo is a big factor currently. He mad a good post over at southern weather forum if you or anyone wants to look at it. It's under Dazzling December topic. Page 32 I believe. Also a -EAMT is ongoing, which typically retracts the jet and puts a trough on west coast. Eps is hinting at a jet extension, but it's still out in lala land. Not sure why gfs was changed because alot of forecasters aren't happy with its progress so far.
  16. Itryatgolf70
    Ed O Toole is a strat expert and he seems intrigued as of now. I think he is from overseas.
  17. Itryatgolf70
    I'm going to assume by my untrained eye that you mean that this sets the stage for a pretty cold stable pattern as the weeks evolve be we must be patient?
  18. Itryatgolf70
    Where do you think the mjo is currently? In the IO or in Western hemisphere? I believe that's extremely important moving forward. I know Eric webb, who has a good knowledge of patterns said the IO convection that has bubbled up is all part of the mainstream pattern mechanism that leads to perhaps a colder outcome later on, but not sure yet if I agree with that sentiment
  19. Itryatgolf70
    I know they have mentioned about convection in Indian Ocean. Could be throwing models off right now.
  20. Itryatgolf70
    HM felt like we could get a SSW toward end of this month/early January so we shall see if he is correct.
  21. Itryatgolf70
    The 0zeps is trying to develop more Alaskan ridging in the day 14-15 time frame. Still way out there but I feel that will be our best opportunity there for good cold
  22. Itryatgolf70
    I personally would like to see more Alaskan ridging instead of Aleutian ridging, which the EPS is trying to do out towards day 14-15.
  23. Itryatgolf70
    That would be interesting if we had similar pattern to last winter, where December was warm and then we had a decent winter after that. I doubt it happens, but similar patterns have repeated theirself. Hopefully we can eventually take advantage of a -nao that bring us consistent cold.
  24. Itryatgolf70
    It looks toward end of the run with more of a central-eastern trough setting up if it's to be believed
  25. Itryatgolf70
    Hey guys. It's been a while. I moved to jackson tn this past April. I tried posting the animation of 12zeps, but size was too large. If we can get height rises over Alaska, it will get cold east of the rockies. Towards the end of the run, it is hinting at that possibility
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