Itryatgolf70
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Everything posted by Itryatgolf70
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We will see who was right and who was wrong after winter because there really are a little more moving parts than normal this year
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I expect a warm winter. That's the norm now. I'm always the internal optimist that hopes things change or shift that can lead to a colder outcome than most think or at least more interesting than last winter
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What really concerns me is the -AAM right now. I know that's just one puzzle piece but very important imo
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Alot of forecasters may need to change their winter forecasts already with the MEI dropping. I know its one of many factors though. Even JB should probably do it. The ones that have waited was probably a good idea
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I guess my question is if the MEI stays .33 or even drops, will that increase one's chances at a warm winter or is it too early to know? What years had a similar MEI currently or even lower and how was those winters or was there any El niño winters to compare?Thanks larry in advance
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I'm not astute with these teleconnections like yall are, but do we want the MEI real high or as low as possible for a better chance at non ratter of a winter?
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The two things I'm concerned about are troughing in the West and the mjo because if it gets in phases 4-6 for any length of time, it's going to be very warm here. We saw it in Dec 2015 but luckily it flipped in January. This winter we have just as strong niño with a -PDO instead because in 15-16, it was positive as well as 97-98. And we know how warm they were, even with a +PDO. Lots and lots of moving parts
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If the mjo is in phases 4-6 all winter, we may be in trouble lol. I'm hoping that dont happen.
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What did you mean by it may lock up any 123 in mjo movement going forward?
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It looks like a -PDO is all but a guarantee this winter, so like you said, hopefully the pdo stays uncoupled. Also, even with a +AAM if there was one now, we would have our work cut out because the niño is east based still. Now this is going to be interesting with a -AAM on top of a -PDO if it stays that way. Imo, uncharted waters coming up.
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I know when the pattern supports it to go overseas. It has happened many times before. SSW in reference I was talking about that those when they happen, can work out for us IF they happen here with the right pattern.
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The reality is we will have a warm winter. No denying that. How warm? That's the million dollar question. Definitely come down to ao/nao, which are hard to predict this far out. Also a SSW if we can attain that but again too far out to predict. If we have those go negative and SSWE occur, all bets are off
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Yes, December was blowtorch for sure. Mjo 4-6. Thankfully it switched mid January. I think we had a +PDO that winter but a -PDO for this winter, so it will be interesting to see for sure moving forward
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There is always hope for sure
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Since we have a -AAM background, despite the ocean being niño, how is that going to change? We may be stuck in mjo phases 4-6 all winter, which would be terrible, unless u like really warm in winter. I will always be optimistic, despite the nay sayers out there that we will get cold for a few weeks this winter to have our opportunity
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If we keep the -AAM all winter, I think we will have a record warm winter this winter, despite the ocean being niño. That will be interesting for sure.
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Winter 2023-2024
Itryatgolf70 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
JB has to hype to get clients and since he has been doing this along time, people will put stock in him, regardless right or wrong. Kinda like brand loyal lol. That's how he makes money. He definitely very smart with weather. He probably has actually gotten fooled with winters with things unexpectedly changed mid-winter, which can happen. -
Chris, it's an atmosphere of -AAM, which is niña, so this makes sense. The million dollar question is what will it take to get the AAM positive?
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It's all about timing regardless of what happens. If a pattern favors cold, it will usually be cold. If a pattern favors warm, then we will probably have warm weather. Hopefully the atmosphere will match the ocean, but currently the -AAM is leading the way.
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Griteater mentioned something about sunspots a few weeks back and how they correlate to -nao or lack of one. He felt like it shouldn't matter for other reasons but you will have to look at it. I think it's in the weather discussion section
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Larry, I feel that will give us our best chances at blocking this winter and maybe an early SSWE event. Just speculation now
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That's the norm is warm every winter but we all just hope to have a few opportunities at some point this winter. Timing is always crucial
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That would be typical niño progression, which normally is backloaded. Hate to give up December but most niños aren't cold in December.
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A -epo/wpo is what really brings the cold weather when it happens. A goa low is what set up shop in 11-12 winter and it lasted most of the winter. Don't want that in particular
