Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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I don't think the SE, US will be below average temps like a lot of historical analogs suggest -
Since the El Nino developed in April, it's been a clear mid-latitude ridging pattern under 90N +AO. That's been the dominant pattern - not anything coming from the Tropics I'm going to repeat this post, the pattern has been following itself closely, not anything in the historical analog dataset. Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months: 2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2025 Aug +PNA 2026 Aug +PNA 2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO 2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO
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I understand that has happened in the past, but I would still prefer a +PDO in east-based Nino. Remember that correlates with warm water in the GOA and off the West Coast. PDO is further west than east-based Nino position, and doesn't necessarily only fuel it. It can shift things a bit west if strong enough Some of the east-based Nino composite is warm in the NE because of +NAO (which is a more random part - if anything warmer 10mb in +ENSO may slightly favor -nao over a large enough sample). Jan 1998 is an anomaly, but I'm willing to say if that upper latitude pattern happens 10 times in east-based Nino it's cold in the east 8/10. Some times things just don't line up like they usually do. See Dec 2022 and March 2023 as 2 good examples of that. It's only because the correlation isn't 100%.
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Yeah.. better models don't really show it. 30 days until the correlation increases by 3-4x!
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Thanks! They don't have SST so I will still have to find something for May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTA index. Here's that arctic -H5 for the warm season this year 90N.. just where my reverse correlation for the Winter is the highest. Expect 90N H5 ridging for the DJFM mean.
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Thanks!
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Well in the Deep south +2-7F occurred in August and the model at a 0.0 month lead had ~0F. Denver verified +4F vs the models -3F.
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It's interesting because it seems to be effecting the Southern Hemisphere. October is the start of big wavelength correlations, so it will be so interesting to see what happens in about a month! If the -H5 doesn't form over the N. Pacific, score a big one for the PDO.
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I've been traumatized by this ridge in the SW, US/Rockies for the past 1 year. There are +6F anomalies for the whole 12 months! Also looking at global temperature every day, it really has gone warm lately. France has also seen 5 record breaking heat waves this Summer. Number 6 upcoming. We can do a cold pattern in the Winter, but I don't know that the upper latitudes (blocking potential) won't be squeezed out by El Nino or the -PDO/whatever the global pattern is in the Pacific. Fairbanks, Alaska was 1F away from their lowest Summer max temp all time, and I ran those analogs forward to find out they go +EPO in Winter.
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^It must have an error with surface based warmth then.
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Its 0.0 month lead forecasts are so bad that it will probably hold that look up until Dec lol
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CANSIPS has a pretty strong cold bias.. check out what it had for August at 0.0 month lead vs what actually happened. July 25 it did the same thing, -4 areas verifying at +2 and stuff like that.
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5 Super east-based Nino's on record since 1948 (ONI) [72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24] had the following ENSO +1-2 years after (RONI): 9 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino +1 year: 5 La Nina's 0 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino +2 year: 4 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino
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-AO/+NAO. There is like 90% corrlation between nao and ao, mostly over Greenland. The actual 60-90N Im calling AO but officially it's 90% correlated to NAO domain, further SE.
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Since 2012 May-Sept SLP 60-90N is reversing 60-90N H5 for the Winter. A lot of that raw +correlation is NAO-related.
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Yeah 20 years of global warming after that. We realistically need a -EPO or -NAO. A lot of people don't realize, but we have yet to see our 1st N. Pacific trough since the El Nino developed! A lot of these Super Nino analogs have something like -150dm for DJFM, lack of awareness about the current pattern imo
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Cold water developing to the west. Also subsurface anomalies approaching -3c below 150E. We may be headed to La Nina for 27-28.
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Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months 2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2025 Aug +PNA 2026 Aug +PNA 2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO 2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO
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CANSIPS had a cool August for places that ended up +4F at a 0.0 month lead. In the south it had near 0F forecast, and it was +4-6f. Terrible forecast when the first 15 days of the month are already short range modeled.
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Nov and Dec are the warmest months. Matches the ENSO analog set. Kind of interesting that 01-02 which was the strongest +EPO on record never got above 82F in Fairbanks all earlier that year. But that's just 1 example.
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Aug was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Here's how that historically rolls forward to the cold season
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NWS Fairbanks on X: "Through August 30th, Fairbanks has experienced its coldest year to date in 54 years (since 1972), with an avg temp of 28.7°F ranking as the 11th coldest year to date. The warmest temp recorded this year was 81°F, the 2nd coldest maximum ever. Here's a look at the numbers. #akwx" / X I don't know how to embed, but the lowest Summer maxes in Fairbanks since 1980.. 3 of them roll forward to a good +EPO signal for the following Winter
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lol I wonder how much people are paid to program these models Where's the raindancewx post where Canadian had a cool Aug for the US at 0.0 month lead and it was near the warmest on record!
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Nearly -200dm N. Pacific trough in February. Color me skeptical. These models were so bad in 23-24.
