Stormchaserchuck1

It's a PNA/EPO issue, which I guess you could say is a PDO issue. We just had one of our coldest mid-Winter stretches on record... AGW stuff right now is just complaining. Feb/March has been the same anomaly in the Pacific for 9 straight years. Let's figure out why!

Just because I've been tracking it, 00z Euro is 64F for DCA 2-19, and 66F 2-20. 0z eps peaks 62F on 2-19.

Full snowcover here. Was surprised to see so much of it stick after today.

Seasonal models did pretty good this year. I remember you pointing out the much drier than average forecast. They were also colder than the 10 and 30 year averages. We were lucky to get that 1 STJ storm out of nowhere. It was Boston's 8th biggest snowfall on record, and the low pressure wasn't even that strong.

March starts off with +EPO, per 18z GEFS. We could talking about 50s and 60s if this verifies: 12z EPS also had a similar Pacific pattern Does anyone know what our snowfall stats for February 2018-2026? 2016-2026?

WPO pattern is pretty far away, +EPO is closer and it will be about as positive as the WPO is negative (-0.3 for -WPO vs +0.5 for +EPO)

End of the 0z Euro is warming up really good in the Midwest. Run it forward a few days and we might be talking about 70s. 117hr Euro is 57F in DCA 186hr Euro is 67F in DCA 288hr Euro is 64F in DCA 354hr Euro is 63F in DCA 4 separate fronts.. -PNA pattern Model run is probably too extreme, but it does highlight a warmer pattern coming up.

Looks very La Nina-like

QBO information, near real-time The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) January 2026 was the 2nd lowest 30mb QBO Jan on record, 2015 was number 1: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index It will likely reverse to +QBO for Winter 26-27. It has a cold season Stratosphere polar vortex correlation, stronger stratosphere polar vortex is +QBO, weaker SPV is -QBO.

If they were using the AI model it would be higher totals earlier too.

I guess it's not fully included then.

I have found something interesting, since the 2012, N. Hemisphere Arctic ice melt low, the Summer sea-level pressure state has been reversing the following Winter. In the 2025-2026 ENSO thread, I used this to predict a -AO for Winter 25-26. Here was May-Sept 2025 SLP anomaly: Analogs [10] Following Winter of 10 analogs (+7 months) Winter 25-26 so far: Something to watch this coming warm season... do we get -SLP or +SLP anomaly over the Arctic (60-90N). Since 2012, -SLP has been followed by following cold season -AO, and +SLP has been followed by following cold season +AO.

7pm Sun is 0z UTC, which is when it's stopping. Maybe like 1 hour of light after that.

-PDO numbers this decade.. 73 straight months of negative: Will warm ENSO break this? January 2026 -1.19 December 2025 -0.98 November 2025 -1.51 October 2025 -2.37 September 2025 -2.31 August 2025 -3.23 July 2025 -4.21 June 2025 -2.64 May 2025 -1.66 April 2025 -1.15 March 2025 -1.12 February 2025 -1.40 January 2025 -1.29 December 2024 -2.03 November 2024 -3.13 October 2024 -3.80 September 2024 -3.56 August 2024 -2.91 July 2024 -3.01 June 2024 -3.15 May 2024 -2.98 April 2024 -2.11 March 2024 -1.54 February 2024 -1.34 January 2024 -1.57 December 2023 -1.66 November 2023 -1.79 October 2023 -2.23 September 2023 -2.99 August 2023 -2.48 July 2023 -2.54 June 2023 -2.55 May 2023 -2.41 April 2023 -3.08 March 2023 -2.45 February 2023 -1.65 January 2023 -1.24 December 2022 -2.21 November 2022 -2.40 October 2022 -1.81 September 2022 -2.28 August 2022 -2.38 July 2022 -2.63 June 2022 -1.31 May 2022 -2.23 April 2022 -2.09 March 2022 -1.67 February 2022 -1.91 January 2022 -2.40 December 2021 -2.71 November 2021 -2.75 October 2021 -3.14 September 2021 -1.96 August 2021 -0.95 July 2021 -2.00 June 2021 -1.82 May 2021 -2.04 April 2021 -1.84 March 2021 -1.67 February 2021 -1.09 January 2021 -0.61 December 2020 -0.98 November 2020 -1.58 October 2020 -0.62 September 2020 -1.04 August 2020 -1.33 July 2020 -0.92 June 2020 -0.75 May 2020 -0.52 April 2020 -1.32 March 2020 -1.75 February 2020 -1.48 January 2020 -1.41 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) El Nino/-PDO Winters are: 65-66, 72-73, 23-24 La Nina/+PDO Winters are: 83-84, 84-85, 95-96

It's a slight statistical anomaly, but there is no signal on the 3rd Winter going either way, besides what is normal for El Nino. 2 years of cold and dry maybe begets a drier El Nino.

With 2 colder than average Winters (DJF) in the Northeast (24-25 and 25-26), I was wondering, do we have a higher chance of seeing a cold El Nino Winter next year (26-27)?? (3rd consecutive cold Winter?) Since 1950, I found 10 analogs where there were 2 cold Northeast, US Winter's before an El Nino. That is extremely high. It means 38% of El Nino's were preceded by 2 cold Northeast, US Winters. The odds of one is about 40%, using my guidelines (40-20-40), odds of two 20%, so about +2std, but limited examples [28]. So check it out.. This is the DJF before an El Nino the following year: This Winter (25-26) so far: DJF Air Temps 11 months before an El Nino: Winter 25-26 so far: And that's going to get closer to a match, as we are in -PNA for the remainder of February. The pre-El Nino composite was a great predictor this Winter, even outscoring forecasts such as the CPC. Now what did the following, 3rd Winter, El Nino Winter, look like? ^About your average El Nino composite. I'm a little surprised the map isn't skewed colder. The precip is also surprisingly below average in the Mid Atlantic, but this is just based on 10 examples: So history says that 2 cold Northeast, US Winters followed by an El Nino does not lean cold for the 3rd, El Nino, Winter, Disqualifying my thought.

^Interesting that they have such high El Nino probabilities, using RONI. For the last 3 years (23-25), RONI has been -0.533c the value of ONI month-by-month (0.0 ONI is -0.53 RONI). That means they are predicting a Moderate El Nino (ONI) by September.

Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC

Man does the long range look bad on long range models.. +EPO has the chance of making it warmer than average the last week of Feb possibly into early March. The Euro weeklies are warm through March 15th. MJO going through Phases 3-6 is a warm composite in late Feb/early March

There are other indexes, stronger correlated than the WPO, that are not favorable at the end of ensemble mean runs, +nao/+epo here:

120 hours out.. what a bad model

Satellite as it was making landfall

1988 does appear to be a good anti-analog. This is my favorite La Nina, because it was independent, strong on its own, it wasn't part of a 2 or 3 year phase. I think you see La Nina effects better in analogs such as 88-89. We did have 2 El Nino's 2 years before, which inversely matches the RONI 2 La Nina's of the last 2 years. Jan-Feb 1988 was also the most subsurface cold water anomaly of the analogs. This matches this year being one of the warmest subsurface anomalies (whole subsurface area). Also to note, although the subsurface analog matches give off a strong signal (80% going in the direction later in the year), I think it's inflated a little high, because there are only 10 examples. More reasonable is probably 60% odds, based on the subsurface.

This is a time sensitive ENSO subsurface anomaly map, and 5-day subsurface temperature trend. It will always be updated to the most recent day: