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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    54 and light rain. At least everything is green
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Days with cool temps usually don't do much severe wx wise in the area. This is 3x this season where they had risk with 50s and 60s and it amounted to nothing.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Was it July 2018 where we got 18"? One of those July's, I remember it raining like crazy Over the years our thunderstorm season has shifted from the Spring to late June and July.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty neutral here
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    What would you say is the chance of a continued El Nino in 27-28? 5%? 10%? I would say 5-10%
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's probably an error. I haven't played around with it yet, but I will probably start keeping a record to see if there is an advantage vs the market. May is 62F - I'm going to say below.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    The actual PDO-Strong El Nino connection is not as strong as you would think. Here is the strongest events, it's pretty close to neutral - bigger cold pool being hugging, right outside the ENSO warm SSTs, I'd say more in the North Pacific High area (-NOI).
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Do you know what the max OHC ever on record is (at all times of the year)?
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what we get for a warm March.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have found a site that allows you to trade future monthly US Temperature IBKR ForecastTrader May is currently going for 62F. Over or under? +NAO March, which you pointed out as a huge anomaly rolled forward to this May pattern When something is counter-intuitive like that (instead of warm begetting warm), I take note of it as something going on in the evolution of pattern
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    30-day SOI is below -10 for the first time since Feb 2024. It will need to average -10 for the next 2 days to hold that value for Apr - which is indicative of a healthy developing El Nino. Big switch from anomaly in March, where it was +7 and developing Nino's (>1.2 RONI peak) since 1950 had never been above +2
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like the 26c isotherm has made it down the thermocline. Doesn't get much warmer than that. I mean, there's not a perfect correlation of subsurface making it to the surface, but it is pretty high +time. I have also theorized that subsurface anomalies on the thermocline effect the N. pacific pattern, and we are seeing that on current models in May with more +PDO-type patterns, n. pacific 500mb low pressure It must be interesting for deep sea fish in the area to go from 65 degrees to 80 degrees (El Nino) to 55 degrees (La nina), all along the equator. Maybe some interesting evolutions there.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC has +8c anomalies in the central-subsurface, -150m, as of Apr 23.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Does anyone trade weather derivatives or is familiar with it? It's kind of frustrating that this May pattern was predictable far in advance -- March was 2nd most +NAO on all of records, going back to 1950. The +2 month, following May's had a strong below average temp signal: So here we are in May, and it's verifying Sometimes in weather forecasting there are these strong leads -- and I would like to be able to use knowledge to increase capital. PNW warmth was very predictable from pre-El Nino year May's, a composite that has been working out every month since November 2025:
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Man, I don't want a cool May. It's also our most cloudy month of the year, so below average also means more clouds
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    2 days of strong -SOI, moving the 30-day average to the lowest since 23-24 El Nino 26 Apr 2026 1010.40 1011.90 -28.05 -9.61 3.89 25 Apr 2026 1010.94 1012.50 -28.48 -9.08 4.09
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Surface pressures in the wrong positions?
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    45 and rain. Would be nice if it was 1.5 months earlier
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Worse yet -- you don't read the thread. You are just copy and pasting what you said B4
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    +3c subsurface now stretches all the way from 160E to 90W
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    You keep saying the same thing over and over
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    An example of analogs working: March +NAO was top 2/900. When rolled forward to May, it is surprisingly cool, and this is the idea being adopted by CPC going forward Pre El Nino May: Nice combo of the two: warm in PNW. Cool elsewhere.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Continuing to look like the roll forward March +NAO composite.. when you have something so strong as top 2/900, it does have validity
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's the context in which you use it though: If you were saying it is biased colder because of the 3-year period after the eruption, that would make sense, but another pattern prevailed, opposite of the Pinatubo probability.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm big believer in Global SSTA's the year before, May-Nov, being a great indicator for Winter WPO. A big one is the Indian Ocean - Warm SSTAs correlate with +WPO at 0.5 (75% chance of positive) and visa-versa for cold SSTAs, relative to the global mean.
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