Stormchaserchuck1

It was a little telling that NOAA put out a forecast for 13-19 NS earlier in the season... they usually don't bust that bad. They had 18-25 last year, which looked like it was going to be way off mid-season then we came back at the end and hit the range.

Yeah, if we would have had a mediocre defense 2 years ago, we probably would have gone to the super bowl last year, if not won it (the Eagles were super hot though). smh is right, we've mistimed some key parts. It's actually hard to stay good in the NFL, with high draft picks to bad teams, coaching changes every year, salary cap. The winning formula seems to be a good QB though, which we have. Remember when the Ravens traded for Marcus Peters, then won 11 games in a row. Imagine winning 11 in a row now, and on paper we seem to have a much better team.. team is slacking these days

Seattle is now 3-1 with Mike MacDonald as HC.. they were 10-7 last year with Geno Smith QB. Baltimore may have missed an opportunity when they didn't upgrade him to HC after the defense was #1, 2 years ago.

I wish I could find the video where it was 4th and 3 on Detroits first drive.. The CB's were playing 8 yards off, in the end zone. That has to be one of the stupidest defensive play calls I've ever seen. The WR just turned around, QB quickly threw it him.. easy 1st down, on 4th and 3!

I saw that sub-4980dm made it to land about a week ago. I know August broke the record over the arctic circle for lowest heights on record, but then we did it again a week later! That one however, stuck around a little while and moved south over northern Russia sub-4980dm. Impressive for what was Summertime. This +AO phase has been running strong since the Northern Lights made it south in May 2024. September 2025 will probably make it 7 straight +AO months [CPC].

EPO patterns, both positive and negative, typically happen in only 8-14 day cycles. This is different from the PNA and NAO, which can run in 15-45 day cycles. +15 days after an EPO event actually has a slight opposite correlation to its previous phase, overall (only -0.03 though).

Warmer October still look likely. Long range models have +EPO, which I have stressed is a connected -PDO pattern, strongly, in October. What I mean is the PDO as an independent variable, not connected to 0-time conditions and influenced by them. It's working for the 2nd year in a row, as the PDO has been strongly negative in both of those October's.

Ravens don't wobble in updated super bowl betting odds.. 1/5.5, greater than before the season started (they were 1/6.5) Part of that is because of how bad the division is: Pitt 1/66 odds Cincy 1/125 odds Browns 1/500 odds

I would think warmer water in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Strait would be a cause of more arctic ice melt, which is more +PDO... but the arctic ice melt has completely gone bare on the Pacific side of the Arctic circle, and the PDO has gone to new record low levels during and after that time, so something may be connecting them.. although maybe not directly

I'm more down on the D-coordinator. You can't have that much talent on defense and be so bad.. I'm talking about the secondary. I think it's bad play calling. Last season we started 31st then finished 1st in the last 8 games, so hopefully this year is the same.. but I think we probably need a new defensive coach, they look like they are always lagging behind the offense instead of creating their own momentum

Justice Hill doesn't look as good as he did the past 2 years. Maybe he didn't practice in the offseason or something. Good thing we have Mitchell!

Lions played better. Hopefully Ravens can get their defense together in time for the playoffs.. we have 5 pro bowlers on defense. When the Lions were 4th and 3 from the 5 and the CBs were playing in the end zone, I was like huh?? They did a short hook for the 1st down. Passing game looks really good though, with DeAndre Hopkins looking like a great pickup. And Likely is very underrated too, when he comes back.. offense is pretty loaded.

4th and 3, why are they playing 10 yds off the WR's? Absolutely horrible defensive play calling.

I made this graph last year, it's a smoothed out AMO index since it went positive in 1995. It appears that we still seem to be in a rising phase, over the long term. Also, the NAO has been very positive May-Aug, just like last year. Such +NAO in the warm season has a -0.3 SSTA correlation in the south-central Atlantic. A lot of the cool water this year is because of such a strong +NAO... It's been positive 8 of the last 9 months. If the NAO had been negative 8/9 months, you'd be seeing some very warm SSTAs in the Tropical Atlantic, and probably more activity this hurricane season.

The newly released CPC Winter outlook is colder than 90-95% of what they've put out in the long range for the last 10 years, for the CONUS. The NW, US is an interesting forecast, because the Euro, CANSIPs, and other seasonal models are above average there.

It's kind of silly to see the H5 change the SSTAs and then everyone go with what the SSTs show. For the next 10 days, we have a Gulf of Alaska low and Aleutian ridge.. the PDO is going to go pretty negative again. but these are the symptom, not the cause. It would actually be easier to roll forward PNA patterns/analogs instead of always looking at SSTs, because SSTs are actually always a few weeks behind. MJO/ENSO waves move the N. Pacific pattern, which in turn move around the SSTAs. Kelvin/Rossby waves are probably as close as your cause/main drivers. There have been a few more rossby waves with developing La Nina, which will probably create more -PNA tendency going through the Fall (maintaining a -2 to -3 PDO). Watch the ENSO subsurface, if cold water -200m strengthens, it's more -PNA/-PDO tendency, and warmer water there is more +PNA/+PDO. The gravity waves at the surface move these subsurface water anomalies.

It might be hard to sustain a +PNA this Winter.

Looks tropical to me. It probably does have a warm core, given the time of year and location.

Long range 12z GEFS at 384 has a pretty strong ridge setting up for the first few days of October NAO is also turning negative this September after being positive every month since last January.. this same thing happened last year, where the +AO/+NAO that was present all Summer long broke in September.

Hmm, I think global warming coincides with less low level clouds and clouds in general. This is why it was always surprising to see global precipitation increase, and precipitable water. It makes sense that warm/dry would be the trajectory, but for the last few decades more moisture has happened by a lot.

Ravens beat the spread again. They are 2-0 vs the line this season. These are the same betting odds that currently has them tied for #1 super bowl favorite.

Joe Burrow out for possibly the season, at the least 3 months. Ravens odds of winning the division goes up significantly.

Ravens next 4 games are all against playoff teams.. a combined regular season record of 50-18 a year ago.

Packers super bowl betting odds really jumped over the last 2 weeks. They were 1/20, then traded for Parsons and went to 1/14, to now 1/6.5. 1. Bills 2. Packers

The top 5 analog years are all in the last 5 years. How have you done in the last 5 years? The next two weeks should have a trough in the NE N. Pacific. If people are freaking out about warm SSTAs there, there really shouldn't be a strong, persistent trough developing but the atmosphere comes first and SSTs 2nd. In 2 weeks the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska should cool..