Stormchaserchuck1

Maybe but 88-89 was a really Strong Nina. I don't think we will have Moderate-Strong for the next 3 years.

Maybe we'll pop +6c tomorrow or the next day? Very impressive subsurface warmth on the thermocline

I went to Grand Turk, just south of the Bahamas a few days ago. Beautiful beach

SW, US ridge will do that. Best pattern for a tornadoes is a SW, US trough, slight SE ridge, and another trough in the Northeast to near New Foundland.

It's just a middle ground of probability.. where the money is flowing regarding pattern. There is nothing meteorological about it, but some traders may use meteorology to buy/sell the market. I know this board is about discussing scientific theory, etc, but 90% of people really only care about what the Winter will bring so I reference the current trading trend and price, as it is the best guide. If you think it's not good, take up the challenge and trade it! The cold last Winter did more than double the NG price at one point, so accuracy would have been very beneficial to people personally! The cold last winter in the NE was somewhat predictable.

It's easy to accept a theory without data. I did say that in the last 100 years something is reversing it. I'm just saying that's probably not a super long term thing, when talking hundreds of years. 1) I don't think we will have a Super El Nino this year (RONI). Does Strong reverse? It could be a high end Moderate to Strong peak, imo. If it was a Super El Nino, I agree, something is decadally is reversing it, but I think that's more of a pattern in the 1900s and 2000s and may not always be the case. 2) I do think we have +ENSO tendency for the next 3 years. That may cushion the reverse next year, and be more likely to go Neutral or Weak Nina. I don't think it will be a Moderate to Strong La Nina in 27-28.

March we had the 2nd most positive NAO on record, 75 years x 12 months = 900 analogs. This is what the roll forward to May after +NAO March looks like:

We haven't had a single +PDO month yet this decade, in the 2020s. Maybe it will happen with El Nino but I don't know that it will deviate very far from weak.

I think over 500+ years of data there would be no "la nina snap back" in the mean. Something is causing it for the last 100 years though. It would be interesting to know what it is. I don't think it's heat release or anything like that. People describe the transition that has happened, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's because of the first part.

Natural Gas is at the lowest price since 2024, and NG/Crude Oil and NG/Gasoline spread is near record lows. That's a warm sign (or +NAO favored) for next winter.

Kind of funny how the 2nd highest NAO month in all of record happened during a cold season warm Stratosphere

Don't know if it's been mentioned here but NOAA March PDO came in at -1.44. That may not seem like much because we've had so much -2 to -4, but -1.44 is still strongly negative. Top 15-20%.

I don't really think El Nino's trigger La Nina's and -PDO's.

Yeah, the linear correlation composites use plus and minus analogs. If -NAO is now -0.3 and +NAO is now +0.7 that's still +0.5. Patterns don't change with something like Strong ENSO, you just have to take the total warming into accout. El Nino hasn't developed yet. This April pattern is actually pretty -PNA

Pre-El Nino Summers have a pretty good correlation at being below average, especially around the Great Lakes

Not in March. The DJFM NAO was close to +0.60, sustaining the decadal +NAO state Me and Ray said the AO would be lower than the NAO. That happened, the DJFM AO was -0.25 It's more accurate to say the AO cooperated this Winter

What I find interesting about the global average temperature, is that it has gone exponential, when mostly La Nina's have occurred since 1998. Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. More than 50% of years have been La Nina since 1998. Had it been 33-33-33, global average temperature would have been higher over that time! The quick re-hit of Strong El Nino this year is going to push us back closer to the long term Neutral ENSO mark.

Lack of understanding what ENSO is if it's constantly pointed out that Weak-Moderate is better than Strong+. I'm not talking about its orientation changing. It's funny how a few analogs can make people prisoner of expectation. Logic test: What's a super La Nina like?

You have to pay to basically be able to upload files through the board

Early indication is a +NAO April, which is a bearish Atlantic season probability, with half of the analysis period still to go (Apr-May total is base period)

-17 SOI today, finally pushing the 30-day negative

^What was most impressive is that the largest anomalies occurred in the south vs the north. It could have been up to 1.5 magnitude higher if the core anomaly was over the Upper Midwest and Montana. It was also impressive how monthly records were set with more than 10 days to go in the month.

Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina

Well -10 isn't very strong. Those early March readings >+20 were strong. Will be interesting to see how the SOI responds to this Kelvin wave coming up.