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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Is a record-breaking east-based La Nina the most historically favorable state for cold? I think the global warming skew is significantly helping your case An actual low in the N. Pacific is not bad for NE, US cold - wavelengths never get that long on average. It's more in the Upper Midwest. There has been a slight historical tint of anomalous troughs in the arctic in the historical east-based Nino dataset 48-25, more examples than a few is more random there. And El Nino does tend to warm the Stratosphere, so over like 200 years of examples you would have more -ao.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice run of -SOI 14 Sep 2026 1012.86 1014.90 -25.91 -17.50 -20.30 13 Sep 2026 1013.56 1015.55 -25.61 -17.44 -20.04 12 Sep 2026 1012.91 1015.60 -29.77 -17.32 -19.89 11 Sep 2026 1012.86 1015.40 -28.88 -16.53 -19.86 10 Sep 2026 1012.90 1013.90 -19.73 -15.51 -19.92 9 Sep 2026 1013.04 1013.40 -15.92 -14.62 -20.08 8 Sep 2026 1012.32 1014.50 -26.74 -14.02 -20.17 7 Sep 2026 1013.24 1015.10 -24.84 -13.46 -20.04 6 Sep 2026 1014.43 1015.70 -21.33 -13.18 -19.91
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Looks like it predicted the N. Pacific ridge too, which is rare in El Nino.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Upper 40s tonight. I think it will be cold enough in the Winter. Would be really surprised if we do a scenario like 97-98. Last 2 years we had early cold periods in September and they were both cooler Winters. Would have to be an unfavorable index pattern like +EPO if the Winter goes wrong, only mildly connected to ENSO.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Who's the number 1 WR without Zay and Lane, Bateman? He had about 10 catches last year. We also don't have Likely anymore who had a monster game and is a reason the Giants beat DAL
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well the high ACE = neg NAO hasn't worked well lately, we've had a lot of high ace/la nina seasons. Our last -NAO Winter was 10-11.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    We've been hearing for so many years about how high ACE correlates to Winter -NAO. Not one mention of the opposite this year? It probably hasn't even crossed a lot of people minds. Winter +NAO tendency?
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Record low ACE to date
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a monster +AO pattern lol Since the Solar Max peak in 2024, the warm seasons 2024, 2025 and 2026 have been very +ao. I think it's more of a decadal state, and just minimizes the potential for 09-10 type -NAO or 15-16 type +PNA
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    A seasonal model is never going to predict more than like a +3F month. That's because their accuracy is low and they have a large range of error. East-based Nino/-PDO is about as bad as it gets for long range predictors of Winter CONUS warmth. Hopefully the AO help this year. Baltimore/DC average high never really goes below 40 so we do need some below average temps.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    the can'tsips
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    If Chicago is 0 the rest of the month, they finish +3. And the Euro is showing a big ridge in the medium range. It's not a good forecast, the model can't even factor in the first 6 days right.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    LOL maybe the worst 0.0 month lead forecasts in the history of seasonal models Chicago area Iowa
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Warm Dec
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ok.. I was under the impression that it was cooler here and cooler in the Rockies. Was just going on memory. I've seen it make some pretty bad short term forecasts the last 2 Summers though. And it was about 2,000 miles off on where the El Nino would be centered, based in the last few months.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Should be interesting to see if we see a +PNA N. Pacific low in October and how much of it. This is quite a streak over the past 7 years: Which has obviously preceded the Winter *2023 was the most n. pacific low +pna of the analog set.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I didn't really notice this before - quite a +AO pattern setting up May - Sept +AO: 2024 2025 2026 Looks super-warm in the Mid-latitudes
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^ Should get some 500mb effect in the N. Pacific if that forecast verifies for early Oct
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    The cansips has a cold bias so it will almost always get the colder Winters. It had 0 to +2 in the Rockies and some places finished +10
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    The good news for hurricane lovers is that it's looking like a La Nina will develop next year. El Nino also really warms the globe a bit, lagged up to 1 year later, correlating with warmer SSTs. The last 3 Super Nino's have been followed by the following seasons: 2024: The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active and destructive, featuring 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and causing $131 billion in damage with 442 fatalities. 2016: The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season produced 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with Hurricane Matthew being the strongest at 165 mph and causing over $16.5 billion in damage. 1998: The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was catastrophic, producing 14 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and causing over 19,600 deaths, making it the second-deadliest season on record.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    The southeast doesn't get enough rain? I'll disagree with you on that. Maybe the Southwest.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Check out this cool water in the west - pretty large area with BN
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Similarities to 2025. That's what I thought you meant when responding to my post. Edit: nevermind, I see the PNA was negative 3/4 months last year. We are also following 2024 close with the 90N Summer +AO and that had this DJF PNA 1.70 2025 1.05 1.41 80-90N ridging in the Winter sometimes will pop a low south of it, over the Aleutian islands. That's what I mean by +PNA coming from the arctic
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's what the model predicted. I'm not talking about the Great Lakes.
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