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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z EPS really warmed up over the region, for pretty much the first half of June!
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    June DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.9 1.0 0.1 2.7 2.3 1.1
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC continuing to go with El Nino jet stream
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    May finishes with a -13.22 SOI Since Apr 2016: Top -SOI Months (out of 121 Total months): 1. Feb 24: -15.55 2. May 23: -15.26 3. Feb 19: -14.62 4. Sept 23: -13.87 5. May 26: -13.22 6. Sept 19: -12.72 April-May finishes with a -23.10 SOI Since Apr 2016: Top -SOI 2-Months: 1. Aug-Sept 24: -24.72 2. Apr-May 26: -23.10 3. Feb-Mar 19: -21.10 All others above -20
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still haven't had a thunderstorm here this year, unless I missed one. 2023 it wasn't until June 24th. Over the last few years/decades, our storm season has moved away from Spring, and more into Summer.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Legit Strong Nino going 30 May 2026 1012.24 1014.15 -26.33 -13.17 -5.29 29 May 2026 1011.31 1014.15 -33.46 -12.63 -4.77 28 May 2026 1012.81 1014.30 -23.11 Again, lowest 2-month SOI likely in 10 years. March's +7 really came back around. It had never been above +2.3 in March in a developing Strong+ Nino before, guess it didn't matter too much, except showing general SOI tendency to not really take off like SSTA, that has been present in the 2020s.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm not too impressed with Ravens management. They give off the vibe like they are a special franchise and it's a pleasure to be playing for them. Not even trying to re-sign Keenan Mitchel and Likely, like they are going to develop 6th round picks/undrafted again no problem. Sign Lamar to $60 mill/yr, he's not going to accept less. He's not an idiot: The same as Dak Prescott.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Current SSTA.. Atlantic tripole, which is a few NS less per year, on average. East-based Nino is also for a weaker season than central or west based. The one going for the season is continued -PDO
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    August is a big test month for how the El Nino is propagating to the mid latitudes June-August has decent correlation numbers CPC is going with no below average at all on their Summer forecast maps.. let's see if the warmth wins out, like they are forecasting
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Also, Apr-May 2026 SOI will be the lowest 2-month SOI since Apr 2016.. Already the Strongest Nino in 10 years.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    May-June has a pretty good STJ correlation in Developing Nino's
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Last year March - October was all +AO monthly, 8/8 months. It looks like this March - June will be starting off +AO, 4/4 months. Edit: It looks like a east-based Nino/-PDO Winter composite, when rolled forward. I always like 2nd points to the same probability.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm wondering if TAO/Triton will pop a +8c in the subsurface in the next few days, as it continues to warm. It's really taking on a Strong east-based dominance.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here you go guys June El Nino analogs
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still doesn't seem like a wet pattern. I'm sure El Nino will give us a boost, but in the long run we may go drier.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it would favor more -NAO events going forward (decadally). Be careful that you are calling the -AMO right now is not from a lot of +NAO/+AO, especially in the warm season. Immediate term the central-south Atlantic has -0.3 to -0.4 SSTA correlation with +NAO conditions. I know, correlated immediately, inverse in the long term.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Last image of that NASA SLH makes me wonder if we are setting up a big La nina roll back, with the way it's unfolding so east and that cold subsurface water popping north of New Guinea. I think the tendency is +ENSO for 2-3 years relative to swings and stuff so we'll see.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^That's a good point. Definitely watch the S. Hemisphere Winter to see if it's propagating to the mid latitude Cell. Pretty good correlation you found there, I like how it's a sea of yellow otherwise.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    +7c has popped in the far east, highest of the event so far. Still warming. Definitely taking on an east-based look
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    -23 Daily SOI today If May ended now, it would be the 6th most negative SOI month since Apr 2016. Apr-May would be close to the 2nd lowest 2-month period since Apr 2016. Definitely an El Nino. I just don't know if it's going to go off the hinges in global pattern domination.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    In other news, we have a pretty good +AO setting up for the early Summer (May-June), for the 3rd consecutive year.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't recall 23-24 expected to be that warm. Seasonal models, especially the Euro, constantly had a trough over the Mid Atlantic in the mean, below average heights. -QBO was expected to dip the AO negative. We did end up having 4 Strat warmings that Winter, but +NAO won out. The -PDO/east-based Nino composite worked out perfectly, a warmer version of 72-73, but many people realized that only after the fact. It led to a lot of PDO reliance in 24-25 and 25-26, which then busted people too warm lol.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Similarities to 2023 and later on in June in 1997.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    CFS has an extreme trend bias. It runs daily so you can find some big runs in there sometimes. The last few La Nina's it had peaks in the Mod-Strong ONI range on a few dailies.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since Summer 2002, just about every super dry period has been equaled out thereafter by super wet. This year we have an El Nino seemingly kicking in.
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