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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    1997 had a +EPO Winter.. the 500mb was -30dm mean for Alaska, when in all Nino 3.4 the correlation is 0.0. I can't stress enough that +epo is the worst pattern for Winter weather in the Mid Atlantic and NE. 01-02 was the most +EPO Winter. Point is, +EPO is not really an El Nino pattern, even east based events only have a mean of -5dm over Alaska. El Nino is more PNA and NPH. So some other factors caused some of the extreme, persistent warmth in 97-98, by lifting that trough north over Alaska and to the arctic circle. I still see the ENSO SSTA of this event as evolving much further west than that one though. Global warming has made it like 5x more likely to have something close to a 97-98 Winter now, especially without having mid latitude troughs which is usually a feature of el nino, but that doesn't mean we will see +EPO dominated the whole cold season.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another early May day with not a cloud in the sky. Will be interesting this movement into a cloudy/cool pattern for the next 4 days.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    SPC is a little out of touch.. too much model riding and not enough outside observations. I didn't even realize that we are under a MRGL risk for severe storms today.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    I actually had a dream that the CDC Daily climate composites pages were working again
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    90 here at 11:10am!
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Indian Ocean has probably warmed the most of every sea region of the globe.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    PNA just not budging with this El Nino May could be the 4th consecutive month with -pna Not really much of a consistency rolled forward, historically.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wish every day could be like today
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^You were right about it shifting east, like other Strong Nino's. I have seen cold pools get stuck in the middle-west for the last few years, and kind of thought this year could follow the same trend with Nino 4 getting warm so early.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nino vs the dry pattern
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Up to 94 here in the woods.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just saw my first cloud!
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hmm I'm not sure it's a wet pattern right now
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    91F.. I'm usually 5-7 degrees cooler than DCA, not today.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    AO and NAO are usually about 0.85 correlated, but they are running apart this year: AO is -1.0 for 2026 so far, NAO is +4.4. March AO was +2 though. It has basically exactly neutral correlation April to May, and March to May [1948-2020]. There is a slight -EPO correlation actually March +AO to May- May is a little cooler temp wise in the CONUS after +AO March, which we have seen at least in the 1st half.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    88 here at 12:20. Not a cloud in the sky
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nino 1+2 was close to 0.0 in 09-10. It was also the #1 most -NAO Winter on record, going back to the mid-1800s. Kind of interesting that we are batting 0-22 on Winter NAO months > +1.11 starting after just 1 year after that.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Believe it or not, April and May have a slight inverse correlation. There is 0.1 tendency for the NAO in these months to reverse each other.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Might see a little bit of a spike happening in the next few weeks/months
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs) The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27)
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    You don't want to bite the bullet with a Strong Nino STJ. I guess it matters a little more in the Mid-Atlantic.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty interesting that warm water extends all the way from South America to the Phillippines along the equator, as bluewave pointed out.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Jan 2024 had a pretty good -NAO with some cold coming underneath of northern latitude ridging. It was a pattern break from the -NAO bouts always hooking up with SE ridge 2018-2023.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Even that was a -PNA Winter We haven't had classic Strong Nino since 2016
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    March-Apr 2026 had a combined NAO of +4.08
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