Stormchaserchuck1

A sample of 50 Strong El Nino's might change your mind?

El Nino events actually favor 10mb Stratosphere warmings.. which can be -AO

We are so lucky the indexes were what they were in the middle of Winter. The longer term (last 14 month) index pattern is horrid for cold.

I see where you are getting stuck, you are taking analogs too literal. There are only really 2. The mechanics of the situation don't change, it only changes the amplitude. If forcing is west-based, that's +PNA and a stronger +PNA if it's >2.0 in the west (RONI). I'll take a really, really strong +PNA. You just don't want it to get too close to the west coast, US, which is more tropically east-based

So why wouldn't the opposite produce an opposite anomaly pattern?

Also there have been no La Nina's <-2.0. If there were, I bet they would be warm if they were west-based (maybe before 1950 there were some, I'll have to check)

^That world record of 134F in Death Valley from 1913 seems like low hanging fruit

If someone asked me, I'd take a repeat of 91-92 styled El Nino. the 2nd and 3rd strongest like that were 09-10 and 02-03

But why would the same thing change if it's 0.5 or 2.0?

Not enough examples. 91-92 is the only west-based event 2.0 or greater. 15-16 was the only basin wide. 0/1 and 0/1.. the rest were east-based

Most strong events have the N. Pacific low further east.. over the North Pacific High region. You can see by that composite that the N. pacific low was actually pretty west that Winter.

We are still in that +1-5 year from Solar Max window. You will say the NAO wasn't that bad last Winter, but the average of the last 14 months is very ++

That 2.0 stuff is superstition. Mechanics of something doesn't change if it gets stronger. If a car that normally drives 40mph goes 100mph, it goes 100mph, not more left or right.

I don't agree.. the forcing is on where the Hadley Cell and mid latitude cell meet, and that forcing is north of the El Nino.. west-based strong event gives you strong +PNA. You can actually see by the composite of that cold season that we did get +PNA, it was just mixed with +EPO/+AO/+NAO

This has worked out great for the last 5 months... this is April before a later in the year El Nino March 2026 is going to beat 2012 as the warmest March on record for CONUS. The heat lingered in 2012: This is what my April forecast would look like

Pretty interesting in the Pacific as a Kelvin wave gets going this April. This is what 500mb looked like before our strongest 5 El Nino's on record: Nice match south of the Aleutians and NW of Hawaii

March 2026 will be one of the most +NAO's on record. History says hold on a second on it being such a warm April. This is what typically follows: Now models do say it will be a really strong +NAO April 1-15. If that happens, this is what the 1st half of April looks like:

Check out what we experienced up to 3 years after the Pinatubo eruption

91-92 was the strongest west-based Nino on record. It was also very +NAO/+AO in the cold season ^A lot of cold anomalies there around the volcano. Sometimes you have to zoom out and see what the bigger picture was like. 3 out of 5 times that cold of a H5 N. Hemisphere will produce cooler weather in the US

5 of the next 6 days forecasted to be 77+ here

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.3 3.6 2.9 3.9 3.4 1.8

The +NAO that we are seeing in early April is about as strong as it gets. This is after a significantly positive March ENSEMBLE LOOP The 0z EPS was super warm April 9-13 Be happy we didn't get that pattern in the middle of Winter. The same thing happened last Summer where we had like 6 consecutive months of -pna/+nao/+ao. A lot of +NAO in the last 14 months that wasn't mid-Winter 25-26.

Very positive +NAO this March 33 of the last 46 March's have been +NAO (78%) It has been an anchor month for the decadal state. Jan, Feb, Dec have all been positive in the last 46 years too. Europe's skew of snowless Winters, and especially Germany, has been a little altered by the decadal NAO progression.

The SW heat ridge/drought started in 1995, and 1998 is when the -PDO began.. that SW pattern is amped max right now. I personally think we are still in -PDO general and the Southwest pattern also goes with +AMO. Solar Max may have changed things a bit though. I've looked at what 2 cold NE Winter's in a row means for year 3.. it's neutral, 50/50.

Sometimes there are anomalies.. 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 were cold Winters and the volcano should have made 91-92 lean colder.. a west-based Stronger El Nino. Sometimes it just doesn't go according to probability. It was also during +PDO general. I think the N. pacific subsurface is pretty important, so even if the short term PDO wanes/waxes the thermocline holds a longer term state.. bluewave has shown those N. pacific subsurface anomalies are record breaking warm right now, so I think -PDO tendency is probably favored until we see some consistency the other way there.