Stormchaserchuck1

Long range models around the turn of the month are wanting to develop some kind of 500mb low north of Hawaii, +PNA under the -EPO/-WPO. There really no sign of a RNA pattern. That's why I think the 3-4 week CPC outlook put out today, Euro weeklies, and seasonal monthlies for Dec (CFS, CanSips) are wrong having the cold in the Upper Midwest, and a SE ridge, above average in the SE, US, and average in the Mid Atlantic. MJO could be holding strength going into 7-8-1 around the 1st half of December, and I think it's a below average temperature pattern everywhere east of the Rockies, at least for the 1st half of the month.

Yeah pretty classic -EPO showing up for the last few days of the month Models at that range did just completely lose a sustained -NAO, so let's see if it hold when we get closer... but it does match weak-negative ENSO/strong -QBO analogs for late Nov/early Dec

+PNA pattern trying to build at 384hr on the 18z GEFS. As PSUhoffman posted, we can get snow from this pattern. Let's see if it develops and holds as we get closer

I wonder if the Stratosphere warming forecast is going to stay so strong going into the last week of November, with models tonight taking away the -NAO in the long range. Here's the 1989/2005-analog pattern with weak-negative ENSO and strong -QBO. This is for Nov 28, based on tonights 0z GEFS

Good news and bad news The bad news is, models took away the prolonged/sustained west-based -NAO that it had been showing, the last few runs. The good news is, around the turn of the month they are developing a strong -WPO pattern with +PNA underneath of it -- a Pacific based cold pattern that should put much of the CONUS below average to start off December 0z GEFS mean hr384

Nice post Larry.. Jan Natural Gas is the highest priced contact of the Winter season, implying this is the most -NAO month, but I think the weak-negative ENSO/-QBO might turn us warmer after December, maybe more Pacific-driven warmth. I do see -AO tendency in January this year. Also, Nov 24 - Dec 7 typical lag to -NAO is +35 days, so that is most correlated to -NAO Dec 29 - Jan 12

Kind of limited data. History does say the average PDO cycle is just about as long as we've been in since 1998, but we seem to be at the most extreme part of the cycle now and common sense says that's probably another 10-15 years to neutralize. I know the NOAA has been doing subsurface passes in the PDO area, and there is warmer water down to -200m now more than ever before, which could be 5-10 years to change phases cleanly. There are sometimes 2-3 year phases blips in a long term opposite phase though.

Yeah but after 5/6 La Nina years, we have a tendency to flip for the next 3-5 years, and that happens immediately after 4/6 consecutive ENSO events or greater.. I'd give it 2/3 chances for El Nino next year, even if it's weak..

I wouldn't be so sure about +PDO in 2026, this is what we've seen so far this decade, which is way more extreme than any decade on record: October 2025 -2.40 September 2025 -2.33 August 2025 -3.20 July 2025 -4.16 June 2025 -2.62 May 2025 -1.66 April 2025 -1.15 March 2025 -1.12 February 2025 -1.40 January 2025 -1.28 December 2024 -2.03 November 2024 -3.13 October 2024 -3.80 September 2024 -3.56 August 2024 -2.91 July 2024 -3.00 June 2024 -3.15 May 2024 -2.98 April 2024 -2.11 March 2024 -1.52 February 2024 -1.33 January 2024 -1.57 December 2023 -1.66 November 2023 -1.79 October 2023 -2.23 September 2023 -2.99 August 2023 -2.47 July 2023 -2.52 June 2023 -2.53 May 2023 -2.42 April 2023 -3.07 March 2023 -2.45 February 2023 -1.65 January 2023 -1.24 December 2022 -2.21 November 2022 -2.41 October 2022 -1.81 September 2022 -2.29 August 2022 -2.38 July 2022 -2.64 June 2022 -1.32 May 2022 -2.24 April 2022 -2.09 March 2022 -1.67 February 2022 -1.91 January 2022 -2.40 December 2021 -2.71 November 2021 -2.75 October 2021 -3.13 September 2021 -1.96 August 2021 -0.95 July 2021 -2.00 June 2021 -1.82 May 2021 -2.04 April 2021 -1.84 March 2021 -1.67 February 2021 -1.09 January 2021 -0.61 December 2020 -0.99 November 2020 -1.58 October 2020 -0.62 September 2020 -1.04 August 2020 -1.33 July 2020 -0.92 June 2020 -0.75 May 2020 -0.53 April 2020 -1.32 March 2020 -1.75 February 2020 -1.48 January 2020 -1.41 Even seasonal models have a -PDO next Winter, despite El Nino.. but it's far out so skill is low.

Problem really is that we need a big NE N. Pacific low pressure, major negative anomaly at 500mb, and we haven't really had that since the 15-16 Strong Nino. I think maybe 1 or 2 anomalous times of only a few weeks in the Winter since then, but that's it. It's really a drought - actually the Feb-March N. Pacific -PNA recently broke the previous record for a 8-year consecutive period by +140%. We've been needing a big N. Pacific pattern change. We want the jet stream to be stopped up, and a big part of that is NE N. Pacific low pressure. It's not climate change, unless you are saying CC is putting more High pressure in the north pacific ocean. It's been a Hadley Cell - La Nina pattern since 16-17 (but to a lesser extent since 98-99).

Which extends out a -NAO to Jan 20-25 (although not a Strong SSW by late Dec, low correlation in lagged effect).

ASO ONI was -0.5, meaning we need to make it to DJF -0.5 for an official La Nina.. going to be close. The RONI is definitely in Weak Nina range though.

@brooklynwx99 Has 500mb maps of days leading up to NYC 18"+ snowstorms.. it has a real strong Aleutian ridge (I think near +150dm) a few days before.. along with a -NAO.

Dolphins are the worst. Why did they sign Tua to $55 mill/yr? I think Lamar is like the 10th highest paid QB now. If you have a lot of money, NFL is something that is really going up in value a lot over the next few decades.

Welcome! When we get coastals, Fallston does really well. I think we had close to 36" in Jan 2016. I also measured 125" in my backyard in the Winter of 02-03.

Welcome neighbor! We do much better for snow here, every mile makes a big difference. You're also kind of in a nice thunderstorm spot. Baltimore to just south of me is a zone that gets hit whenever we are risk. Edit: nevermind, you already live here. Whatever.

Usually ENSO related December isn't a big month for PNA Correlation really gets higher in Jan-Feb.. You know how we're following it so far..

I am a little worried about Jan and Feb in the 1989-90 and 2005-06 analogs. I do think there will be more -AO in Jan/Feb so we'll see how that goes.

You think? Long range models are showing more +PNA at the Day-15+ range. It's looking like a -WPO/-EPO wants to develop with a little +PNA under it. I don't see any signs of RNA on current long range models for late November, although I don't know if the Euro weeklies show that in Dec (It looks pretty neutral in the N. Pacific with the cold coming from west-based -NAO).

Natural Gas December contract is up 25% in the last 3.5 weeks.. from $3.63 on 10/19 to $4.54 now.. It's moving because of the prospect for a cooler December. I've been saying if you know this stuff is coming, you can make money. It's not as factored in as you'd think. NG January: $4.75 NG February: $4.42 NG March: $3.95 I usually use $5.00 as the "even" mark.. under is warmer than average probability, over is colder than average, although there are a lot of factors that are included.. it's not 100% weather related. Also is more correlated to the NAO than the Pacific, since Europe is a big part of the market.

Allan Huffman is a good Met. He used to post here all the time. If I put out a Winter forecast, it would look like that, except I would switch December and January.

Monster -WPO by the end of the 12z GEFS, last few days of November. Matching strong -QBO/negative ENSO years like 1989 and 2005 (although probably not as extreme). Remember I was saying I was curious if the strong -QBO/weak negative ENSO connection would make us really cold late Nov into the 1st half of December, like the coincidence that's happened over and over again (I say coincidence because the QBO is a Stratosphere index). It's looking more likely!

The problem with Stratosphere warming is that they are common. The whole Stratosphere moves in one direction: stronger or weaker. 1/2 of the time it's warmer. 1/2 the time it's colder. Because of fluctuations, there are on average 1-2 top 30 percentile Stratosphere warmings per Winter. This one coming up doesn't look record breaking strong, it's looks pretty average as a SSW, actually. It would be weird to go to March without seeing one. Still, there is a lagged -NAO correlation that has a pretty high correlation coefficient. But at the current strength that is being modeled it's not a "change the whole Winter scenario".

^Ok, I've plotted Tropical OLR and found that subsurface temperature anomalies near the thermocline (associated with sea level height) are actually more impactful. You see the correlation increase to almost double and the same goes for vs 850mb wind, 250mb wind, sea-level pressure. Matching Tropical Pacific OLR though, which is "Weak La Nina-like" right now, comes out to a -NAO in Nov and Dec then switches to +NAO for Jan and Feb. Curious how he got -NAO for Jan and Feb.

Can you elaborate on what you mean? Bust warm or bust cold? What's going on in 11-12 in the NE Pacific?