Stormchaserchuck1

0z EPS has a strong signal for a storm around 162hr With so much CAD, it's likely going to either be a wintery storm, or slide south. Much less chance for rain, especially with AO near -3, and PNA neutral or positive around the coldest few days of the year, on average -AO is our best pattern for winter snow.. doesn't mean it can't slide to the south though. But a significant NW cut trend is unlikely.

Don't look now, but the 15z Hrr has moderate snow over the Baltimore area later today. Another 0.5" here

Snow finishing up here.. It rained most of the night, all of this fell within the last 2 hours

Winter Storm Warning in Florida panhandle!

I have some big flakes starting to mix in. It seems to be changing over here.

I've been mostly rain. A few flakes are trying to mix in.

6z GFS has Jan 24-25 storm.. 6" for DC. 1037mb High to the north.

Huge CAD signature next weekend.. some models are wet around here or just before

Looks like the 12z NAM has snow on the FL panhandle tomorrow, Meanwhile DC and Baltimore are rain. How do you guys like that!

NAM and Hrr were way off yesterday with the Sunday storm though.. I guess a little out of their range

Just started snowing pretty moderately here.

New 3-4 week CPC keeps us cold to mid February "Winter before an El Nino the next year" has been working out great this Winter so far. Here it is for February:

0z EPS is frigid Jan 27-29!

Individual ensemble members are all over the place in the medium range (0z). It's been really rare to have a wall of strong High pressures in the Great Lakes/southern Canada, while a high qpf low cuts into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast. Call it a decadal pattern. Let's see if we can break it!

Tapered back to flurries here. Line gaining some strength in western Va. Short term models have it intensifying about 10am.

Big time -AO on 0z GFS ensembles hr96-300. probably <-2 std. 180-192hr to me looks like big ice somewhere as there is arctic blocking/ridging, and the PV underneath of it near the Hudson Bay and SE Canada, then a ridge riding over it in the Mid-Atlantic from south-based+NAO. -AO's are our best index pattern for snow though, so it's possible it's snow north of DC/Balt in the normal climate zones and ice south.. still way far ways out.. it can go either way but with a <-2 AO less chance it's rain, imo. See if that part holds.

It started actually at a pretty good rate. Very lite dusting on things right now.

Light snow has started here!

I'm under moderate greens and still nothing here, radar looks healthy though. I'm hoping for 1"

9z RAP is a major hit for Sunday

Yeah.. I mean they are big misses

12z Hrr and NAM want nothing to do with the 2nd system

Whoa! 2-3" snow depth tomorrow between Westminster and Hagerstown on the 12z NAM

12z Hrr has a pretty good band coming through 12z-16z tomorrow. Has up to 1" snow depth near the MD/PA line.