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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Long range 18z GEFS @384 hr has us as one of the coldest spots in the N. Hemisphere, matching historical ENSO analogs
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    With inflation, I've figured out the following regarding Energy trading and the coming Winter: Natural Gas price >$5.00, more likely -NAO Winter Natural Gas price <$5.00, more likely +NAO Winter Natural Gas price >$10.00, very high likelihood of -NAO Winter Natural Gas price <$2.50, very high likelihood of +NAO Winter Natural Gas is currently trading at $3.13. December '26 contract, $4.01. March '27 contract, $3.21. Top 10 Most positive Natural Gas Winters since 1996, relative to inflation trend: ^ Average price per Winter of those years: ~$6.00 Top 12 Most negative Natural Gas Winters since 1996, relative to inflation trend: ^ Average price per Winter of those years: ~$2.60 In January 2026, the price of NG jumped from $3.12 to $7.40 as a really cold pattern set in. This was forecasted ahead of time by the CPC with no market reaction until it was days to weeks away. This cold period was associated with the 4th longest on record (since the early 1900s) that Baltimore had more than 4" of snow on the ground. The price then collapsed back to $3.40 in early February, and $2.80 by late February, and then March 2026 ended up being the warmest month relative to average on record for the CONUS, all time. There is a little lead in the NG price, but also sometimes weather patterns are a surprise.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    For the last 27 years, Hadley Cell has responded more to relative ENSO index. RONI was about -0.2c vs ONI during this time (I know you say it's more like the last 10 years - RONI was -0.3/4 during that time).
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    The subsurface has stopped warming. It ebbs and flows though with Kelvin/Rossby waves. Here is what 1997 did: 2015 2023
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Above average temps https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511170000
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good question. I was going to ask if anyone wants to discuss the snap-back tendency that the historical Strong Nino analog has given us, but I think a lot of attention is on this event because it may end up extreme. I think the Nina snap-back won't be as strong this go around, but it's early. Something to watch is if cold water starts to get going in the western and central subsurface, through the next few months and into the Fall and Winter. The big, long lasting Nina's all had major cold in the subsurface during the height of previous Strong Nino peak. Here is the historical dataset: Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24 are your Super Nino's. Subsurface data since 1979 can be found here: Data Display and Delivery | Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array 20c Isotherm depth is probably the easiest variable to hone in on.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Euro weeklies for July 13-20 lol
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Lots of CPC long range forecasts for above average precip in the last month. Let's see if it happens! A lot of times they are actually too early with pattern.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty strong Solar Max 2-3 years ago. We are hitting this +ENSO +time wrt Solar Cycle. Based on the far extent of the aurora borealis and now how strong this El Nino is getting, it is possible that the Solar Max as reported was underestimated, or the Earths magnetic field is weaker (just an unsubstantiated theory).
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it's just catching up to the -ENSO state we have held since 1998. ENSO tends to balance, historically. The thing with global temperature is that it would have actually been going higher if we had an equal number of + an - ENSO events over the last 28 years!
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    June PNA will likely finish <-1, but it doesn't have a high correlation to the Winter, surprisingly
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    We get a little low south of the Aleutians Days 5-9. Around Day 10 a ridge is building into the Gulf of Alaska. I guess you can say that's close, but a slight difference west makes it more -PNA. I'm just really looking at the PNA, June will likely be the 5th consecutive month of -pna, and the average is no joke, it's less than -1/month 1965, 1982, and 2023 all had a 4-month streak of -PNA that were broken in June.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    June is typically not a big month for ENSO to effect the N. Hemisphere pattern, but we continue to see differences in the North Pacific
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^It updates at 2am?
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I had a nice rainstorm, but no lightning and thunder so technically speaking I still haven't had 1st thunderstorm of the year, despite 4 high risk days (SPC). This one was severe thunderstorm warned, don't know why. The sky was dark but that's about it.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since the Aurora borealis in May 2024 associated with Solar Max, this big +AO pattern has been happening at the beginning of the warm season for the last 3 years.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Massive round of -SOI.. 30-day below -18, which 23-24 never did. 15-16 peaked at -22. 97-98 is the next higher up (although there was 1-month strong dip in Feb 2005). 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 What we have been calling -PDO may have actually been more of a -ENSO decadal state. 82-83 is the real one to beat, that had a streak of 3/4 months <-30 SOI.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe some strong thunderstorms if we get a good trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC continues to go El Nino in long range STJ predictions
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Euro and CANSIPS completely different over the EPO domain for the Winter.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^You were right about the lagged warming after the SOI.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe biased a little extreme, but the Euro is legit seasonal model.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would say the more positive the better, main effect of PDO is PNA/EPO which the stronger they go, they stronger our troughs are here on the East Coast. The PDO has steep incline to Winter effect the further in the year you go. Here's the lagged correlation: So Fall PDO is 2x more important than Spring PDO.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Big differences between Winter 15-16 and 23-24, probably contributed to something along the lines of the PDO (15-16 was >+1, 23-24 was <-1).
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    There has been much less of them for the last few years, like a fraction! In 2013 when I was in Sedona, AZ there must have been 300+, the sky looked like hell.
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