Stormchaserchuck1

What a ridge in the West and Midwest!

SOI remains very positive for a developing Stronger El Nino 13 Mar 2026 1013.78 1004.20 26.18 15.03 10.39 12 Mar 2026 1012.94 1003.80 24.08 14.12 10.15 11 Mar 2026 1012.23 1003.95 19.96 13.50 9.83 10 Mar 2026 1012.41 1004.15 19.86 12.99 9.54 9 Mar 2026 1013.31 1004.00 24.89 12.33 9.38 8 Mar 2026 1013.00 1003.05 27.95 11.43 9.31 7 Mar 2026 1012.90 1002.50 30.11 10.84 9.13 6 Mar 2026 1012.74 1003.30 25.51 10.77 8.71 5 Mar 2026 1010.85 1003.90 13.59 10.96 8.17 4 Mar 2026 1011.34 1003.15 19.53 11.31 7.65 3 Mar 2026 1010.85 1002.70 19.34 11.46 6.95 2 Mar 2026 1010.44 1002.95 16.18 11.70 6.42 1 Mar 2026 1011.79 1003.40 20.49 11.80 6.11 28 Feb 2026 1011.80 1003.50 17.10 11.49 5.74 Lots of month to go, but March is currently on pace to be the Most +SOI month since before the 23-24 Strong Nino. Later-in-the-year Strong Nino March's: 2023: -1.78 2015: -10.7 1997: -7 1991: -10.1 1982: +0.7 1972: +1.2 1965: +2.1 ^since 1950

Not really a good N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern until the NAO goes negative the last week of March ENSEMBLE LOOP The SW, US ridge as a dominant factor is the best going for us, as a we drop a trough over and east of it, the pattern of the Winter.

Early March Stratosphere warming is starting to connect with -NAO on long range models towards the end of March.

They usually develop further east in Nino 3 and Nino 1+2, because on average there is cooler water there. If the whole area is neutralizing (average state is trade winds and colder SSTs along the equator), then the biggest difference is further east.

12z GFS ensembles now have -NAO from SSW +lag time The last few SSW's didn't have anything in the 3-4 week models (had +0.3-0.4 NAO), then trended for -NAO within the 2 week in the allotted lag time.

This is the following Winter - so you can see the PHX happening is a developing-El Nino occurrence as this Winter precip pattern is very El Nino There has never been a year in the 70-year composite that matched the "Winter before El Nino" better, in the CONUS

Hottest March's in Phoenix, rolled forward to the following April - August (29 analogs) 12z EPS mean for Phoenix has 100, 102, 101 March 19-21. Their all time monthly high for March was 100 on March 26, 1988.

A little trend toward -NAO after the early March SSW. The last few SSW's have been missed by models in the 3-4 week, then they catch on at about 10-day.

^After March, can you do the Dec-March temperature rankings for Phoenix? My guess is it will be 3-4F above #2. Todays 12z EPS has 100, 102, 101 in PHX.

Some pictures from the snow

That 77F at 2am on March 12 is impressive.. and they were saying 24 hour temp change, that's an impressive 12 hour temp change!

@GaWx Crude Oil went up +9.2% today, making the trade 3-0, +13.2% Total. I still have a Weak Up signal (4/10) tomorrow and Monday, then it looks like my technical indictor doesn't have a signal anymore.

Is 77F at 2am for DCA the highest ever for Winter?

Getting these impressive Winter temp spikes. Remember the Jan 26, 2024 80F at DCA

Yeah it's crazy how far south these models have snow

Yeah some places down south where it didn't rain are going to have a very warm midnight high. DCA is still 78F

Snow depth still isn't that bad - a good area of 1"+. Some moderate/heavy snow in DC around 12pm. Will be interesting to see if it happens with temps so warm right now.

EPS yesterday had PHX hitting 101 on March 19. Today the 12z EPS mean has 100, 101, 101, March 19-21

Yeah I've been playing an Up signal on it! I have it for tomorrow too (today since 6pm), but it is weaker than yesterday's. So far the CL trade is 2-0, +4%. Trump may do things to intentionally bring the price down though, that is my only fear with the investment.

Lamar knows his value. It would have surprised me if he got an extension paying the same as Tua, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott etc.

Early signs are El Nino is developing as east-based

I'm really curious to see what the N. America 500mb does next Winter if a strong El Nino develops, after the record +H5 out West the last 2 Winters. We're kind of breaking into a new cycle here.

El Nino developing in the east

@GaWx Yesterday's close was $85.08, and today's close was $86.39, so technically this was a "successful day", with a 1.5% gain, however with the volatility, it's not that far from even. I have the same Up signal on Oil tomorrow, let's see how that goes.