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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Let's see.. it will be interesting to see if it goes with El Nino and pulls a 2014-2016, or if it continues to meander near neutral despite strong ENSO forcing like 23-24.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well obviously Winters are better if the PDO is strong vs near neutral. You can still get a NE warm Winter in near neutral PDO in El Nino
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    It probably will average positive.. but I think it could be in the ~+0.50 range vs the +1/1.5 that you might think goes with Stronger El Nino.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Feels like another superstition. If anything 2 consecutive -PDO El Nino events should favor another one vs something opposite. Weather can be cyclical. I do think the fundamentals of PDO state may have started to change with the Solar Max/aurora borealis the last 2 years, since May 2024.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO isn't as strongly connected to ENSO as you would think.. here are the Strongest El Nino's. 2 other areas in the globe have bigger anomalies
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah we've had a lot of warmer days.. might be a record for the most 80+
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Can't wait for 80/62 tomorrow on the last day of March.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    That -WPO Fall loading pattern in SSTA really hit, too.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's rare to get a strong west-based Nino but 91-92 certainly could have been colder..
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well I said if you multiplied anomalies by 1.5x what would it be. That would make Nino 1+2 0.0 to 0.0.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Agree to disagree I guess. I don't think more of the same changes the positions.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nationally, 09-10 was actually drier than most Strong Nino's. I guess at 39N it's not that typical to get several big blizzards but NAO has never been more negative..
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    If Nino 1+2 is as cold as 09-10 I don't see how the pattern changes if it's 2.2 or 2.3
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well you know ENSO's main effect is due north and south of SSTA's, where the Hadley Cell and mid-latitude cell meet right?
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    If you consider it was the most -NAO season on record, and a Stronger Nino STJ, it's not that far fetched. Anyway my point is it's not different things happen if you turn up the heat, it's just bigger same.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think this is where meteorological logic differs from analog based opinions.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    A strong -QBO that season combined with Strong El Nino to give us several Stratosphere warmings, which corresponded with big -NAO events. A stronger El Nino may have actually given us stronger -NAO's (even though it was the most -NAO season on record since the 1800s, during a stronger El Nino). Nino 1+2 is almost cold there, that season. I don't think a max of those anomalies would have been bad at all. Actually, I think I would go higher on total in DC vs lower.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ray, suppose the orientation doesn't change, you just multiply the anomalies by x1.5.. do you think 09-10 would have been a bad Winter?
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Right.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    By weaker you mean in Nino 1+2 and 3?
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess.. Not too far from ideal though. Nino 1+2 is almost cold there v! impressive!
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    The way this played out in the PNA region isn't too far from what a Nino 3.4-based El Nino should do See how the N. pacific low is directly north of the El Nino
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Too much warmth in the east.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah basin wide is warmer than west-based, but I'm pointing out that 91-92 Winter warmth was an anomaly in an event with that orientation.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO part of that composite is "other factors", not completely connected to ENSO imo.
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