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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Summer's of our most recent 2 Strong/Super El Nino's 2015 was strong +PDO We are nothing like 1997 anymore
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I know 2002 was dry. I don't think there are actually many cases of hot Summer's in El Nino. Something global is shifting around now, jet stream is lifting north. Edit: 2002 was above average
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've been thinking about starting a thread but I just don't have high enough hopes for the Winter right now
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Boy would I love a -EPO in Super El Nino. That's probably the best combo. CPC is disregarding the CANSIPS completely in their seasonal outlook, and 1 year ago around this time CANSIPS had a large part of the Midwest/Great Lakes -4 to -6 for the month of July at 0.0 month lead and it ended up positive departure across the board. It did do well in lead the last 2 Winter's though, although severely underestimating the warmth in the Mountain West, which I don't think anything got actually.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    2015's big +PDO is starting to diverge us in the NW, US through the 2nd half of May and now heading into June. Watch out expecting a big Winter month or two like that year, because the PDO was >+1 in 2015. Favorable NAO can help though, of course.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino isn't coupling with PNA or the North Pacific High so far. -PDO hit some lowest monthly numbers in 150 years, over the last few years. Interesting battle this Summer.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z EPS really warmed up over the Great Lakes/Northeast in the medium/long term. Anti-El Nino.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z EPS really warmed up over the region, for pretty much the first half of June!
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    June DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.9 1.0 0.1 2.7 2.3 1.1
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC continuing to go with El Nino jet stream
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    May finishes with a -13.22 SOI Since Apr 2016: Top -SOI Months (out of 121 Total months): 1. Feb 24: -15.55 2. May 23: -15.26 3. Feb 19: -14.62 4. Sept 23: -13.87 5. May 26: -13.22 6. Sept 19: -12.72 April-May finishes with a -23.10 SOI Since Apr 2016: Top -SOI 2-Months: 1. Aug-Sept 24: -24.72 2. Apr-May 26: -23.10 3. Feb-Mar 19: -21.10 All others above -20
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still haven't had a thunderstorm here this year, unless I missed one. 2023 it wasn't until June 24th. Over the last few years/decades, our storm season has moved away from Spring, and more into Summer.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Legit Strong Nino going 30 May 2026 1012.24 1014.15 -26.33 -13.17 -5.29 29 May 2026 1011.31 1014.15 -33.46 -12.63 -4.77 28 May 2026 1012.81 1014.30 -23.11 Again, lowest 2-month SOI likely in 10 years. March's +7 really came back around. It had never been above +2.3 in March in a developing Strong+ Nino before, guess it didn't matter too much, except showing general SOI tendency to not really take off like SSTA, that has been present in the 2020s.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm not too impressed with Ravens management. They give off the vibe like they are a special franchise and it's a pleasure to be playing for them. Not even trying to re-sign Keenan Mitchel and Likely, like they are going to develop 6th round picks/undrafted again no problem. Sign Lamar to $60 mill/yr, he's not going to accept less. He's not an idiot: The same as Dak Prescott.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Current SSTA.. Atlantic tripole, which is a few NS less per year, on average. East-based Nino is also for a weaker season than central or west based. The one going for the season is continued -PDO
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    August is a big test month for how the El Nino is propagating to the mid latitudes June-August has decent correlation numbers CPC is going with no below average at all on their Summer forecast maps.. let's see if the warmth wins out, like they are forecasting
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Also, Apr-May 2026 SOI will be the lowest 2-month SOI since Apr 2016.. Already the Strongest Nino in 10 years.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    May-June has a pretty good STJ correlation in Developing Nino's
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Last year March - October was all +AO monthly, 8/8 months. It looks like this March - June will be starting off +AO, 4/4 months. Edit: It looks like a east-based Nino/-PDO Winter composite, when rolled forward. I always like 2nd points to the same probability.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm wondering if TAO/Triton will pop a +8c in the subsurface in the next few days, as it continues to warm. It's really taking on a Strong east-based dominance.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here you go guys June El Nino analogs
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still doesn't seem like a wet pattern. I'm sure El Nino will give us a boost, but in the long run we may go drier.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it would favor more -NAO events going forward (decadally). Be careful that you are calling the -AMO right now is not from a lot of +NAO/+AO, especially in the warm season. Immediate term the central-south Atlantic has -0.3 to -0.4 SSTA correlation with +NAO conditions. I know, correlated immediately, inverse in the long term.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Last image of that NASA SLH makes me wonder if we are setting up a big La nina roll back, with the way it's unfolding so east and that cold subsurface water popping north of New Guinea. I think the tendency is +ENSO for 2-3 years relative to swings and stuff so we'll see.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^That's a good point. Definitely watch the S. Hemisphere Winter to see if it's propagating to the mid latitude Cell. Pretty good correlation you found there, I like how it's a sea of yellow otherwise.
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