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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    -23 Daily SOI today If May ended now, it would be the 6th most negative SOI month since Apr 2016. Apr-May would be close to the 2nd lowest 2-month period since Apr 2016. Definitely an El Nino. I just don't know if it's going to go off the hinges in global pattern domination.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    In other news, we have a pretty good +AO setting up for the early Summer (May-June), for the 3rd consecutive year.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't recall 23-24 expected to be that warm. Seasonal models, especially the Euro, constantly had a trough over the Mid Atlantic in the mean, below average heights. -QBO was expected to dip the AO negative. We did end up having 4 Strat warmings that Winter, but +NAO won out. The -PDO/east-based Nino composite worked out perfectly, a warmer version of 72-73, but many people realized that only after the fact. It led to a lot of PDO reliance in 24-25 and 25-26, which then busted people too warm lol.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Similarities to 2023 and later on in June in 1997.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    CFS has an extreme trend bias. It runs daily so you can find some big runs in there sometimes. The last few La Nina's it had peaks in the Mod-Strong ONI range on a few dailies.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since Summer 2002, just about every super dry period has been equaled out thereafter by super wet. This year we have an El Nino seemingly kicking in.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess I've been harping on it a little much, you're right it's still early. If the AAM goes over +3, that's impressive and more of a -NPH signal for the rest of the year imo. It will be interesting to see what actually happens after that, as the AAM tends to see-saw between positive and negative bouts, about every 35-40 days.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Why do you think the PNA and Southern Hemisphere High pressure is not responding so far? The same thing happened in 23-24. There's definitely an El Nino building in many aspects, but it's not propagating to the northern and southern latitudes as much as past examples, thus far, not a global dominating event. The +AAM should produce more of a northern latitude favorable H5 pattern, let's see what happens there in the next few weeks.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just not really seeing the corresponding pressure patterns in the North and South Pacific so far, in the mid latitudes. 1997 and 1982: notice how -SLP stretched in the Hadley Cell from 180E to 360E
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's the ridge
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Very cool!
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Models in the medium/long range missed the European heatwave, just like they recently caught onto this Canadian ridge in the next few days. They might be a little less reliable right now.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good run of -SOI.. we could make a run at most negative 2-month period (Apr-May '26) since 2016 25 May 2026 1011.06 1012.85 -25.41 -12.61 -3.54 24 May 2026 1010.19 1012.80 -31.69 -12.71 -3.18 23 May 2026 1011.70 1012.55 -18.21 -12.02 -2.76 22 May 2026 1012.15 1013.20 -19.74 -11.50 -2.49 21 May 2026 1010.85 1013.05 -28.55
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what 1997 was like.. June is finally getting close with a Canadian ridge now showing up on medium-range models Edit: You could say May is pretty close
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    They are just expressing what they think should happen. We continue to be in this mid latitude Hadley Cell expansion phase, despite El Nino.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty interesting what continues to transpire in the North Pacific, despite El Nino I don't think we'll be getting a follow up-Strong La Nina anytime soon (years), there is an ebb and flow to the Pacific-ENSO pattern.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I kept checking the NWS because the weather app on my computer kept showing 50s for highs. NWS was always mid 60s or higher. I didn't get above 54 yesterday, and 50 today, at least for middle of the day highs.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Decadal research through the 1900s shows that the AMO is correlated to SE ridge/trough patterns.-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    The CDC Daily climate composites page hasn't been working so I can't do exact measurements on the data is was based on, but the SSTA on Tropical Tidbits looks about Neutral so far, close to 0.0.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    97-98
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    57-58 and 65-66 also didn't have a strong east-based orientation. Since 1948, only 5 events: 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24 have been basin wide Super Nino. Kind of interesting that this will be the 3rd one in 12 years, in the midst of many weaker La Nina's.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    No surprise here NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^If May finishes where we are now in the SOI, there will have been only one 2-month period with a lower SOI since 2016, Aug-Sept 2023, and was barely lower than -10/month. It's been quite a +SOI streak since 2016. Big difference in the SOI this Spring after an anomalous +7 March.
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