Stormchaserchuck1

Really respectable -NAO showing up in the long range on 12z GFS ensembles. Near +300dm on the mean south of Greenland at hr384.

I bought in at $48! Trying to decide whether to sell today, or hold on a little longer. That $50 mark was a top that held for 50 years when just about every other metal has hit a new all time high, so when it finally passed it, it accelerated. Gold had its 2nd best year since the 1970s in 2025. It has an Up signal for next year, per a method I've backtested..

Oct 1-30: +60 days Nov 1-15: +50 days Nov 15-30: +45 days Dec 1-15: +40 days Dec 15-30: +35 days Jan 1-15 +30 days Jan 15-30 +25 days Feb 1-20: +20 days Feb 20-March 30: +15 days Apr 1-15: +10 days Something like that..

Doesn't have to be a reversal to have impact/correlation

I don't know about that, but at the time of the Stratosphere warming long range weeklies were not showing a -NAO in the +30-35 day typical lag time. Maybe they were assuming it all happens at the same time and since the 10mb warming was waning without -NAO, that they thought that was the end of it? There is a spike in -NAO probability +35 days after a late November 10mb warming (it's a different lag time at different times in the cold season.. longer early in the Winter, and in early April it's as soon as +10 days.) 10mb warming events can happen as soon in the year as Sept 30, with a +60 day typical lag time to -NAO. Reflective is probably just an adjoining of the upper levels and 500mb. Sometimes they hit at Day+0 together, but the actual -NAO 500mb correlation is up to 3x higher +laggedtime.

I use 10mb anomaly as a base. It had to clear +1000 over a 8+ day period to qualify. I think that includes some weaker events.

Live and learn. I love techniques that have that kind of a lag time (>+20 days).. It should be noted that Stratosphere cooling events do not have a lag. They correlated with +AO at Day-0. This is for all times of the cold season.

You mean -NAO/-PNA, +NAO/+PNA

Oh, now you're using the snow depth map.

Hey Larry, Natural Gas March contract went up 7.5% today, while the January contract is up 11.5%. They two are pretty correlated so when there is a difference like that it tells me it's focusing on more shorter term. Since Europe uses NG heavily, a strong east-based -NAO here in the next week is a cold pattern for them. We could have used the late Nov Stratosphere warming to predict this NG move! Although if we got in late Nov, it still would have been a pretty substantial loss as there was a big move down throughout the month of December. $3.28 for the March contract is still cheap, but up from the $3.00 low. Under $4.50 basically implies a +NAO mean for the majority of the Winter, while over $4.50 would imply a mean -NAO pattern. I would guess that from now to March, the March NG contract rises from its current $3.28 price, I'd say probably about 65-70% likely.

Nice little surprise storm. Models put down about 2" of sleet here. GFS has 4" snowdepth, but that's probably mostly ice. I'm in a good position though, the cold air wedges in pretty good SW. And it's a daytime storm for once, should be pretty out!

Yeah everything bought into the warm pattern real quick as NG was forecasting the pattern to basically last all Winter. It's not a wall-to-wall torch pattern this Winter, imo.

We are getting a 5850dm block between England and Iceland in a few days.. a +600dm anomaly. This will be the 2nd +600dm anomaly in a few days, as we just had one over the Aleutian islands. It's an east-based -NAO. See how the late November Stratosphere warming correlates to -NAO in about +30-35 days?? I went all the way back to 1948 and found that pattern with a different lag time at different times of the cold season. But this is a major hit. Models didn't pick it up until the last few days.. it will be interesting to see if it's a common bias if an early Winter Stratosphere warming happens again in the next few years.

Lamar hasn't beat a team over .500 yet this season. His best win against an opponent was the 6-9 Dolphins.

Who cares about rain and 40s? This is the day after Christmas, looks fun!

Today's Euro weeklies are a disaster, have the same pattern going to Feb 2. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512200000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202602020000 Good news is they've been fluctuating a lot. Now strengthening 10mb PV modeled after the New Year:

What's your question?

This is a good point. We are following 05-06 closely right now. There actually aren't many deep -QBO/weak-negative ENSO matches to this year, but 05-06 and 89-90 fit. Feb 2006 went cold when Feb 1990 was warm, but they were both warm January's. I do think there is more -AO tendency at 90N this Winter that neither of those analogs had. Will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves going into mid-January.

12z GEFS is a CONUS blowtorch through the end, hr384. At that point we still have a +300dm Aleutian ridge and +EPO. It will take some time to detox them both in the best case scenario. This pattern surprises me a little, before Dec we had 21/29 months of +PNA since 2023 (CPC), and since the 23-24 El Nino ended, we still had 12/20 months of +PNA in negative ENSO. Now all of a sudden we have a Strong La Nina pattern from the N. pacific to the continental US. I guess Fall AAM is important, as that is the difference between this year and last year - this year we had a -AAM Fall, last year it was more positive 2nd year -PDO's, when the PDO doesn't work year 1 (+PNA last Winter in deep -PDO), correlates at 1.24x normal year 2.. It's deep negative this year so that could have been another sign.

When it's deep -PNA like this, I don't even look at models for snow. Strong +EPO too. 98% of the time threats at Day 8+ don't pan out or are warm. While the OP may sometimes show a winter storm, the ensemble mean never really even has a trough.

I did a statistic analysis once that had a 0.25 correlation to the pattern after 2007, a 0.30 correlation to the pattern after 2013, and a 0.40 correlation to the pattern 2019-2023. It dropped a little bit since 2023, but is still in the ~0.35 correlation range. Historically, the correlation as not as high but still there (0.05 to 0.10 before 2007)

What exactly are you asking? That is a -NAO with the Pacific having greater anomalies and overpowering it. This -PNA/+EPO/-NAO vs +PNA/-EPO/+NAO has been a common pattern since 2007, and more since 2013. When the NAO goes positive again later in January I would expect the Pacific to also change phases, unless ENSO is completely overpowering this year. See how the Stratosphere warming +lag is correlating to -NAO conditions last week of Dec/early Jan? I was talking about this when EPS ensembles were showing +0.5 NAO through the time (graph that don s. previously posted). Models have changed in the last few days to have +heights in and around Greenland.

Yeah, look at how there is consistency. This is what I would expect. Usually the Winter pattern sets up in Nov/Dec and persists. In the Pacific the Winter pattern can even set up as early as Sept/Oct. If the atmosphere is Nina-like right now, I don't see why it would be +PNA in Jan, although 7 of the last 7 is like a 1:25 random type of thing. The 384hr ensemble means still have a very strong Aleutian ridge, +300dm in early Jan. It's also showing no signs of letting up, strengthening in anomaly between 372hr - 384hr. Kudos to those who said La Nina effects would happen this Winter. The pattern with a dry STJ and flooding in the NW is actually Moderate/Strong Nina like. 2nd year PDO's, where the PDO didn't correlate year 1 have really high correlation numbers in year 2 for whatever reason.

Yeah, it neutralizes. If you start from the most extreme point, it should come toward evening out. Still, ENSO is a powerful factor so I would have thought the +PNA January's would be more extreme. 6/7 were +PNA January's though, and since 1980, 5/5 were +PNA January's. It neutralizes the other side/point. Still, a net neutral signal in January-ENSO is something. Will be interesting to watch and see how this January evolves, I do know that Natural Gas led these Euro weeklies and all this warm stuff for Jan by some time! I'm going to say that they are probably too warm, but we'll see.

Hey Larry, All of your examples 1950-1980 were -PNA January. Then you have only 7 examples after 1980.. now 7/7 is a strong point, I agree, but it might be in the field of random if you consider what ENSO is/does. A good test would be the opposite: What did January do in +ENSO after a +PNA December? What there a difference 1950-1980 and after 1980 (I haven't run the data, but will say probably not - just guessing). My map in the last post includes that, so since it rolls forward to a pretty strong N. Pacific ridge in January, I'm thinking it probably doesn't check out the other way around: (does +PNA Dec lead to -PNA Jan in +ENSO?).