Stormchaserchuck1

SST feedback doesn't make sense to me. Seems like kind of a simple answer. The tropics have recently shown a good SST correlation though with tropical systems. It works in the tropics, but not really in the upper latitudes.

Why are the mid-latitudes warming though? It might just be a pattern that fluxes up and down, with general global warming.

12z GFS ensemble mean at 384hr is trying to bring back the Aleutian ridge and Northeast US/SE Canada pretty major ridge.

Yeah, it's been a +WPO pattern

Actually some big changes in the ENSO subsurface over the last 2 months.

It's not often that you see the cold anomaly max (Iceland) exceed the warm anomaly max in the Northern Hemisphere! (Although the relative value of Europe ridge because it was further south is greater).

Really some extreme QBO swings lately

Well there's a lot of variables included. This is one of them. I posted some pretty cool PDO stuff a few pages back.. you are right, the later into Summer you go the more important some things are. A side note, but I do really like cold 500mb in any form.. I said this last year. We had almost the same exact strong +AO happening at this time last year, and it was the first time we had a cold 500mb sustained area in long time, I think the whole 2020-2023 period didn't have that. I was saying how it could possibly flip the EPO to negative for the Winter, and we did in fact have some -EPO driven cold. All these composites of best snowfall DCA seasons have cold 500mb all over the N. Hemisphere in the Fall before then.. it doesn't matter so much if there is PNA etc. just that there is widespread 500mb cold. I think it's a new pattern that we entered into last year.

I'm going with a colder than average March, and probably above average Dec-Feb.

There's enough data where it works as per the correlation coefficient. It's /1 so 0.1 is +10%, or 55% chance. 0.3 is +30%, or 65% chance. 0.5 is +50%, or 75% chance. Etc.

To test my theory of "evening out", let's see what the AAO does in the first half of August this year. This was last year: 2024 8 2 -3.455 2024 8 3 -4.415 2024 8 4 -4.459 2024 8 5 -4.338 2024 8 6 -4.279 2024 8 7 -4.152 2024 8 8 -3.808 2024 8 9 -3.399 2024 8 10 -3.415 2024 8 11 -3.595 2024 8 12 -3.506 2024 8 13 -3.395 2024 8 14 -3.511 2024 8 15 -3.040 Edit: It's suppose to hit +3 in the next few days, which it usually doesn't deviate from +1-2. Maybe there is a little bit of general time leeway too.

The roll-forward regression for February looks like what we saw mid-Winter last year.. big +NAO/-PNA. Last year also had a very big +AO May-July so it makes sense that it shows something similar

Jan - March 6-8 months after a +AO July Looks like there is tendency for a -EPO March.

Thanks Roger! Very interesting. Fun contest. Good to see everyone doing pretty well.

Invest is 50% in the 7 day.

I think Portland hit 116F.. not 100% sure though.

Just continuing with this insane +AO. This has been on of the most positive AO years May - July so far. Kind of reminds me of the 80s/90s.

2021 had a major heatwave in the Pacific Northwest. It shattered records. I think it got >120F in Canada.

You need to flossie that mouth Barry

Didn't realize the AO was so + in the middle of Winter last year.

This is what you call "random" Now of course when coupled with certain ENSO phases, it becomes predictive at the cold season Stratosphere.. as high as a 75% chance. But that doesn't make it to the surface as much as is believed, typically. The Northeast is actually above average temps in warm Stratosphere cold seasons as a broad based thing.

Me too lol. Since returning from California in Jan 2017, the most I've seen in a year is 15", and my average is 25-30". The biggest storm was on Nov 15, 2018 at 5.5". And it didn't snow on the West coast for 5 years, so it's been a while. Not good Edit: maybe 17-18 did better than that. I don't remember.

Jan 10 - Feb 6, 2025 actually had variations of a -PNA in the H5 .. so maybe that's our window, right in the middle of Winter. In the mid-atlantic, our biggest snowstorms occur with a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, so I would take the opposite of this.

Feb-March has had ridiculous -PNA for an 8-year period That's >+100dm for a 2-consecutive month period for 8-consecutive years. Going back through all the maps to 1948, the number 2 greatest anomaly covering 2-months in 8-years didn't even make it to +70dm.. so we've broken that record in the maps by >140%. That's one of those things were the trend forward is so strong, I don't even think there is an evening out.. it's like, watch to see if there is a -PNA in Feb-March again next year with no major chance for +PNA without an El Nino or something in that time period. Once the coldest day of the year passes, Jan 27th, there has been a huge tendency for the last 8 years to go -pna afterward. Something to watch this year.

Siberia has been below average 2017-2025.. and they already average like -40F so yeah. Really surprisingly actually to have any area in the Northern Hemisphere that has been below average for a 9-year period.. but it goes a little bit toward the crappy Winter's in the eastern US. It's not always going to be below average there..