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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Right now it's developing from the west and the east, signaling basin-wide. Nino 1+2 doesn't correlate as highly as a lead in April, surprisingly. Here is Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 for +8months Dec SSTA
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Freeze warnings
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Unfavorable SSTA for big season as it stands currently
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nino 4 is the loading pattern for a Nino 3.4 El Nino. CDAS is currently much higher than CPC. This event is developing basin-wide like 2015-2016 or further west than most Strong Nino's. If it keeps developing further west at its core, I don't think it will go Super, but perhaps Strong, or per RONI high-end Moderate.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yes 10-11 was pretty cold. It was our last deeply -NAO Winter
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't agree that you don't want the El Nino Strong, as long as it stays west-based. Number of examples is too low, and Stronger La Nina's (opposite) correlate with big SE ridge in the Winter
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^The subsurface orientation this year is further west than most previous Strong Nino's
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since the 2012 Arctic ice melt low, we've had a lot of cold season -AO with +NAO.. historically the two are much more correlated. I've found that Summer SLP 60-90N precedes the Winter AO state, although it's a reverse correlation, and the NAO decadal continues to be positive. Since 2011, 20/20 months with NAO value >1.11 in DJFM have all been positive!
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Interesting to note that we are still holding the "south-based +NAO" pattern with -AO, that started in 13/14, 14/15 and has continued... NAO was like +0.60/month this Winter, which was interesting because it was below average temps, with -AO dominating that.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe but 88-89 was a really Strong Nina. I don't think we will have Moderate-Strong for the next 3 years.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe we'll pop +6c tomorrow or the next day? Very impressive subsurface warmth on the thermocline
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I went to Grand Turk, just south of the Bahamas a few days ago. Beautiful beach
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    SW, US ridge will do that. Best pattern for a tornadoes is a SW, US trough, slight SE ridge, and another trough in the Northeast to near New Foundland.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's just a middle ground of probability.. where the money is flowing regarding pattern. There is nothing meteorological about it, but some traders may use meteorology to buy/sell the market. I know this board is about discussing scientific theory, etc, but 90% of people really only care about what the Winter will bring so I reference the current trading trend and price, as it is the best guide. If you think it's not good, take up the challenge and trade it! The cold last Winter did more than double the NG price at one point, so accuracy would have been very beneficial to people personally! The cold last winter in the NE was somewhat predictable.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's easy to accept a theory without data. I did say that in the last 100 years something is reversing it. I'm just saying that's probably not a super long term thing, when talking hundreds of years. 1) I don't think we will have a Super El Nino this year (RONI). Does Strong reverse? It could be a high end Moderate to Strong peak, imo. If it was a Super El Nino, I agree, something is decadally is reversing it, but I think that's more of a pattern in the 1900s and 2000s and may not always be the case. 2) I do think we have +ENSO tendency for the next 3 years. That may cushion the reverse next year, and be more likely to go Neutral or Weak Nina. I don't think it will be a Moderate to Strong La Nina in 27-28.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    March we had the 2nd most positive NAO on record, 75 years x 12 months = 900 analogs. This is what the roll forward to May after +NAO March looks like:
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    We haven't had a single +PDO month yet this decade, in the 2020s. Maybe it will happen with El Nino but I don't know that it will deviate very far from weak.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think over 500+ years of data there would be no "la nina snap back" in the mean. Something is causing it for the last 100 years though. It would be interesting to know what it is. I don't think it's heat release or anything like that. People describe the transition that has happened, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's because of the first part.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Natural Gas is at the lowest price since 2024, and NG/Crude Oil and NG/Gasoline spread is near record lows. That's a warm sign (or +NAO favored) for next winter.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Kind of funny how the 2nd highest NAO month in all of record happened during a cold season warm Stratosphere
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Don't know if it's been mentioned here but NOAA March PDO came in at -1.44. That may not seem like much because we've had so much -2 to -4, but -1.44 is still strongly negative. Top 15-20%.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't really think El Nino's trigger La Nina's and -PDO's.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the linear correlation composites use plus and minus analogs. If -NAO is now -0.3 and +NAO is now +0.7 that's still +0.5. Patterns don't change with something like Strong ENSO, you just have to take the total warming into accout. El Nino hasn't developed yet. This April pattern is actually pretty -PNA
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pre-El Nino Summers have a pretty good correlation at being below average, especially around the Great Lakes
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not in March. The DJFM NAO was close to +0.60, sustaining the decadal +NAO state Me and Ray said the AO would be lower than the NAO. That happened, the DJFM AO was -0.25 It's more accurate to say the AO cooperated this Winter
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