Stormchaserchuck1

March 2026 might be the most +NAO March on record since 1950. Look at how that goes with El Nino later in the year..

23-24 was the only one since 2005? (I don't know, but I don't think any Winter since then beat 97-98 or 01-02). If I get a big ++NAO signal from N. Atlantic Summer SSTA's, I think warmest Winter on record could be in the cards.

02-03 had more -EPO and -WPO. You pointed out yesterday positive phases of these indexes has gone with basin-wide El Nino's, and especially east-based.

You've mentioned 02-03 a few times but that was a major west-based Nino. I don't think we're going to have that orientation this year, and the Pacific is still in a -ENSO state, left over from what has been that phase generally since 2016. The Mountain West hitting >+10F anomalies for a 4-5 month period this Winter honestly scares me about cold Winter prospects next year.

There might be a tendency to exaggerate very favorable conditions, and immediate jump to Super Nino vs something Moderate or even Strong.. like I've previously posted, the March SOI has never been this high in a Moderate+ Nino later in the year. Now there's only 9 examples and I'll have to test it back before 1950, but things are less than ideal right now, although SSTAs are warming pretty fast. Just some random thoughts this morning. Nino 4 also has a steady long term uptrend since 1950, more uniform than other regions.. that Nino 4 is already +0.4 and WWBs happening in the west, may propel that to some warmer conditions this year.

Yikes 11 hours since a response in this forum, 12pm on weekday. Tenn valley is the only forum that has a longer posting drought. They are saying I'll get up to 74 degrees tomorrow. Not bad for March, huh?

I see what you're saying.. for some reason I thought Nino was more +PDO-like, with a ridge overtop the N. pacific trough. I think in the 1895-1950 dataset they are a little more neutral or negative EPO/WPO

Winter 23-24 did act like a Super Nino in terms of precip. although November was dry

The PDO is a 50/50 index, half warm vs half cold or visa-versa.

The 23-24 Winter warmth was not all because of Strong El Nino. It's like saying 01-02 and 97-98 match if you compare US Temp maps. There were different patterns leading to the same localized outcome. The N. Pacific is the main region effected by ENSO, and the N. Pacific pattern was relatively weak in 23-24. That's why the RONI worked better than ONI that year. That's why the RONI is being used. The +WPO was a main driver of 23-24, it just matched corresponding US El Nino temp patterns, but not necessarily because of the same reasons (unless you can explain why +wpo is el nino - I think it's more of a -PDO/cold ENSO pattern) - The N. pacific high was not that effected in 23-24.

A lot of the warmth in 23-24 Winter was from +WPO. A little harder to connect that to ENSO. Beyond that, are you saying that El Nino has an anomaly relative to global warming, or it's just global warming points - everything is warming everywhere? Does the same work in reverse for La Ninas?

Gawx has pointed out that March 2026 will likely be the most +NAO month of March since 1950. Surprisingly, rolled forward to April and May is not a warm composite April May March to May

Big time warm water is getting going in the western-subsurface. Could help to push the Nino a little further west if it stays under Nino 3.4 and surfaces Nino 4 is warming

Yes, correct. Neutral/-QBO would be higher than nina/-qbo and Neutral/+QBO would be lower than nino/+qbo.

The last 4 years, Stratosphere has been a huge hit with favored QBO state Nov-Feb. +QBO -QBO It doesn't automatically translate to AO state, although this Nov's SSW did precede more -AO conditions early to mid Winter. The last 2 March Stratosphere warmings have not lead to -NAO conditions +time. Typically Stratosphere warmings have a lag, and coolings correlate at 0-day

0z EPS continues to be very warm April 1-8

^I saw someone post this a few days ago.. one of the coldest March's on record for Fairbanks, AK Alaska has been having one of its coldest Winters on record without actually much negative 500mb anomaly

US March 2026 temperature ranking vs historical should be interesting

91-92 was probably the 2nd strongest that was basin-wide or more west-based. RONI was +2.3 for 91-92.

23-24 didn't have super negative anomalies in the Pacific like other Strong Nino's, but ENSO mainly effects the North Pacific High 23-24 cold season did have a NPH negative anomaly, which is El Nino. I see why RONI was +1.5, as the total N. Pacific pattern wasn't very influenced by ENSO seemingly:

Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based.

Most of the time the NAO doesn't correlate high on the west coast. March is an exception.

Yes.. +0.5 is really strong correlation

It's hitting Flagstaff the hardest. Their previous highest temp ever recorded in March was 73. They are in the 80s for it looks like 4 days. No UHI cause for this SW warm up.

Yeah not really any basis for the way the last 4-5 months have gone out there. One of the bigger record breaks on record.