Stormchaserchuck1

This is what the CANSIPS had for July at a 0.0 month lead

^Yeah, it's a pretty big anomaly because Strong La Nina's don't result in following El Nino's. Maybe it has something to do with if the event is West or East-based? I think you mean 1982, not 1988? Although the moderate El Nino in 87-88 did transition to a strong La Nina the following year. 82-83 was followed by 2 years of La Nina. I think that last year wasn't La Nina, given that it was Weak Nina by other metrics, and that we are doing it again here in the 2nd year means that the same pattern happened after the 23-24 Strong Nino. I do think that over 200-300 years of data the same pattern won't continue. But something is happening over the last 50 years that is making stronger Nino's reverse.

This La Nina tendency after Strong El Nino's is very interesting. What is happening 1998-2025 that is making it reverse so hard? I would think it's a matter of not having enough data, as ENSO events should run in a continuum but for the last few decades there have been big fluctuations. This happened in the 1970s and 1980s too.

ONI may not make the 5-month classification. SSTAs are still pretty warm. What's interesting is the difference between 3-month and 5-month classification in ONI since the CPC changed its guidelines a few years ago. If this year doesn't make 5-consecutive months: 5/32 recent years (since 1994) will have been ENSO Neutral, in 3-month ONI 8/32 recent years (since 1994) will have been ENSO Neutral, in 5-month ONI RONI/MEI are heading for Weak La Nina I think. MEI may even borderline Moderate Nina in a few monthlies. I found that central-ENSO-subsurface has the best classification with North Pacific pressure pattern, so if the subsurface cold water continues to strength, watch out for more -PNA N. Pacific patterns in the coming Fall/Winter. Very interesting how the SOI was so neutral at this time last year, and this year it's been positive every month since Oct 2024. SOI is kind of in its own world regarding the evolution of ENSO lately, but I think it's a good indicator.

30-day SOI is back above +5. 17/20 +SOI days in July so far. -3c pocket developing in the ENSO-subsurface

Talking on the internet is an extension of yourself. I'd argue that it's actually more real because the reflection is staring right back at you. With time, you start to communicate better. I know my posting has changed a lot from when I was young to now.. I didn't know completely how it would be perceived back then. In face-to-face talk it's very spontaneous.

Another note: Someone other than the Chiefs is expected to win the AFC West in current betting odds. Cleveland is least likely off all teams to win their division, although the NO Saints have the worst SB odds at 400:1 An all-New York super bowl is 250:1, although New York has the most championships in sports of all cities by a pretty good amount Other than that, I'm always surprised how uniform it is year-to-year. Defenses vary more than the betting odds suggest.

I'm actually stoked for the Ravens defense this season. And Derrick Henry is still in his prime.. age starts becoming a bigger factor next year.. the time might realistically be weighted toward now. I still think our WR corps are a little weak, but that and maybe kicker are the only soft spots on the team. At least we don't have the Bills WR's, they are currently tied with Ravens for #1 betting Super bowl odds: 1:6.5. Edit: I see the Eagles are back tied with the Ravens and Bills for #1.. they had fallen to #3 a few weeks ago.

I found that there was a clear N. Hemisphere SLP pattern, especially in the Atlantic, Apr-May before active vs inactive seasons. I posted about it here: We had a little bit of an opposite-tripole this year.

^Nice post. Pretty clear Atlantic-tripole there, with both phases considered. It's always fun to see whole patterns with good lead time. Also interesting the bullying of WPO and NAO as the both seem to correlate with warmer SSTAs near southern Asia. The lead SSTA's for Winter WPO I found peaks at +0.61 correlation just SE of India, Aug-Nov before Dec-March. Overall it's pretty high in the Indian Ocean late Summer-Fall before WPO-Winters. There is a +PDO in the Spring/early Summer to following Winter +WPO signal (and visa-versa) as well.

I don't even get where he stressed that it would be a mis-match Winter. I think every year it is said, "there is also the chance that mismatch could occur at sometime if X and Y", but that's just being wishy-washy imo.

It was a legitimate Winter cold period. There was not a SE ridge under -NAO like the last few years had, had. I realize NYC was not at the epicenter, but that doesn't mean anything less about it.. there were Winter time temperatures late November through late February, it ended very quickly after that but it was also the first prolonged below average period like that in more than several years.. I was thinking the cold Summer H5 +NAO last Summer might create a -EPO pattern, but I was a little taken by the +PNA and how the Fall -PDO basically had no effect on Winter temps until March. Phoenix broke their previous Summer record by a lot last year.. more than 40 days of consecutive 100F+ over year number 2. Those analogs were very +PNA Dec/Jan, I guess it had valiance, but I was a little skeptical.

How does an El Nino change the pattern beyond general global warming, which is a broad thing? I'm referring more to the -PNA pattern that has happened years after the Super Nino's of 97-98, 15-16, 23-24. (There's probably an answer but I don't know it). I'm talking about the meteorology aspect. You seem to be convinced that there firm or absolute starting points to "next level things", that we are counting 2, 8, and 27 years from. Maybe in a broad sense, but the problem has been upper latitude index patterns, and unless you can connect the adjoining features it's probably not something to be so absolute on. Last year from late Nov to late Feb we had a very cold period across the CONUS, which breaks the absolute theory, I don't remember you talking about that happening from last Fall.

I guess 1916-17 is his only one that makes sense. It was a -PNA Winter though, way below average in the West and Upper Midwest, average in the SE and Mid-Atlantic (vs 1900-2000 averages).

^lol, he's basically talking about a +PDO.

^Decadal trends are real. Some people don't get that for some reason. The Earth seems to move in waves, that are decades long. Now with all this data in 2025 we can map out the NAO/PDO and see that the standard deviation of random vs cycles is about 5:1 (5x more likely to be cyclical). The Earth is warming an average of 3-4F. ok. I don't think that applies to everything, and large scale patterns recently. The problem with data-analysis right now is that we might be in the middle of the -PDO/+NAO cycle, seeming like it's a one-way trend (with regards to the most talked about subject - Winter Northeast snowfall).

15/18 days in July have had +SOI now. This is after 9-straight +SOI months, going back to Oct 2024. July will likely be the 10th consecutive month. Here's what the next 10 months looks like in the roll-forward - 0.2 correlations is actually pretty decent for such a wide area of time.

Here is US pattern 5 months after 5-straight months of +AO (Aug-Dec)

July will likely be the 5th straight month with +AO. How does that roll-forward, through March? Here's an animation of the next four 5-month periods.. as you can see there is a -0.3 H5 correlation over the Arctic circle, or a 57-58% chance of the +AO continuing (over the Arctic circle, north of Alaska at least). This is actually a little more +epo than +ao in technical classifications, in the roll-forward.

Thanks! Then it looks like it peaks even higher the next day.. getting close to 604dam around where that thread said the previous high was located. Interesting how much it matches the PDO composite for August.

603dm ridge over the Rockies on 18z GFS! I wonder what the US record is.

+NAO/+AO regime is really strong right now. It will be interesting to see if it lasts into the Fall. Last year it ended in September. Developing La Nina should push some cold waves into the US through the NW and Upper Midwest - I'm curious to see how much it correlates to the pattern, and if it's actually developing "from the top down" (from the deeply negative PDO). I've researched ENSO subsurface and found that it has a higher correlation to the North Pacific 500mb pattern than surface SSTs.. subsurface is Neutral right now but the central-ENSO-subsurface has been cooling the last few days, there is a -2c pocket now. My main concern for Winter prospects with this developing Weak Nina is if we dry up the STJ again.. but this year has been so wet, it's almost counter-intuitive. I would guess it wouldn't be as dry as last year. Will have to analog that.

A warm Fall, I think. Also higher chances for a -PNA pattern this Winter. The Rockies ridge if it establishes towards the end of the month may bring heat east in waves. It will be interesting to see how long the High pressure stays there.

18z GFS breaks 6000dm in the Rockies the last few days of July! Interestingly, this is the August correlation to PDO (for negative like we have now, the correlation is opposite)

7/31 years since 1994 have been ENSO Neutral (using 5-month ONI classification) Using 3-month classification, only 5/31 years since 1994 have been Neutral ENSO!