Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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There is a -0.2 correlation with N. Pacific High area in July-Sept. It's not huge in the northern Hemisphere Summer but there usually is still some circulation effects. +AO by itself does correlate with -PNA High pressure -
Right - it's not as strong before 2016. If global temps were the main cause though, it wouldn't be over the Pacific Hadley Cells. It would probably be over the Arctic or at least some place north of 60N. South sees a dramatic dropoff in average anomalies. I'm pointing out relative anomalies vs the rest of the world. For the sake of discussion, you can't just say that wherever the warmth is occurring it is because of global warming. If coastal NA had the highest anomalies in +PDO, you would say that is because of global warming. The ENSO driving argument is more removed from GW than you imply. There is probably some other meteorological pattern in effect.
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Just your typical 5940dm -PNA block in El Nino. I think it has something to do with cold Arctic. Bluewave probably has a map that says that is record breaking for July. 90-day SOI is about to go lowest since 1983.
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Orioles only 2gb of the wild card?
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You can really see it in the SOI over the last 30 years. We are breaking it hard now however, but if the N. Pacific Hadley Cell was +SOI driven it should be reversing around now and that has not happened yet but it is mid-warm season Streak of the last 30 years really makes the current -26 30-day that much more impressive. I think I calculated something like 72% of months were +SOI since 1998.
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Will definitely be interesting to see how it progresses through the rest of this year with Super Nino! Battle of forces! If the PDO holds neutral or negative through the Winter it's probably going back to negative after this year. I don't intuitively feel like we will see a lot of -500mb in the North Pacific this year, but I could be wrong!
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Honestly the pattern since 1998 looks like a Hadley Cell expansion, which you see in both the North and South Hemisphere, which usually points to equilateral Pacific as a main cause
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I think there are global things in motion/phase, and you see this reflected in the PDO. I agree SSTs are secondary to air patterns.
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PDO is less related to ENSO than people think. Maybe more so west-based events correlate, but east-based events primarily effect the North Pacific High
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Another Aleutian ridge! Since the El Nino began, N. Pacific ridge vs troughs lasting 5 days more more: 6-0. July will likely be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA
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I've always wanted to do that. In Mt. Shasta, CA the mountain clears completely in the Summer, then in September/October huge amounts of snow start piling up on the top. How cool would it be to camp on top of that mountain when the first 4-8' falls? It's easy to climb to.
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It looks like that Southern Hemisphere version of PNA is coming along pretty nice. TT only has 2m, if someone has global 500mb anomaly for GEFS and EPS can you post the link? 384hr 12z GEFS
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Your Modoki Nino composite has cool anomalies in the east greater than warm anomalies in Nino 4. That's not accurate. Actually, a Modoki Nino typically has no negative anomalies anywhere in ENSO. +0.4c max in the west vs -0.6c max in the east is not an El Nino.
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July has been the wettest month of the year for the eastern 1/2 of country since 2017.
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5 straight days under -34 is pretty impressive 16 Jul 2026 1013.27 1018.25 -36.50 -25.58 -18.73 15 Jul 2026 1012.10 1017.65 -40.01 -24.45 -18.16 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 It looks like the last time the 30-day was below -30 was 1983. We are -25.58 Since 1905 30 day has only hit -30 twice. 4x since 1876.
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Biggest difference I see is in the central-subsurface. That could mean two things: 1) The event trends more basin wide than east-based going forward (which seasonal models have) 2) There may not be a major La Nina snap-back for 27-28
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With +QBO? El Nino by itself does disturb the Stratosphere PV
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It's hard to assess without Daily Climate Composites page, but right now it looks pretty negative. July 15 is 50% of the way through, and I would say it's about ~-0.4 for DJFM NAO predictor.
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Lowest 30 day SOI since 1997... almost 30 years. It's impact on the global pattern has been nothing very impressive so far however
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SOI going wild right now.. up there in a top 7/8 event since the late 1800s per SOI now. 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 11 Jul 2026 1011.77 1015.80 -30.66 -23.06 -16.66 Currently lowest 30-day SOI since 1997
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Subsurface is actually falling behind 1997 right now (+9c vs +7c). There is however a Kelvin Wave hitting the central-subsurface, so maybe it will increase eastern anomalies in a few weeks. Timing of gravity waves is not always the same in different ENSO events.
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Western subsurface is not really cold like you see in a lot of developing Super Nino's by now.
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I find it interesting that we had a massive N. Pacific low as recent as 15-16. That was a big +PDO year, even before the pattern happened. Is the PDO really that important or is it actually just a global warming occurrence??
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111 in Billings, MT is insane. They just had snow in Montana 2 weeks ago! Do you guys notice this see-saw happening more times that not, although France is just exceeding and exceeding their records, not wavering back and forth between warm and cold there.
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^ 6000dm is extending all the way to just south of Canada. That has to be some kind of record. Jul-Aug correlation to ENSO. Forgive me for including August but these are the 2 hottest months of the year.
