Stormchaserchuck1

Look at how much this cold pool is blowing up on TAO/Triton CPC usually lags a few days to weeks.

18z GEFS actually really gets us cool Aug 1-7. Could open the month with a -3 to -4 first week, per the ensemble mean.

I think he's getting excited about the warm water NE of Hawaii, but the Pacific Ocean current doesn't really work like that.. there are different flows in the Gulf of Alaska and east of Japan/north of hawaii where the warm water is.. It doesn't really trend to a new area, it's a uniform circulation that would have to change the whole thing to have that majical +PDO I do think there will be arctic blasts this Winter, as the Summer AO has been so positive, and Arctic ice is not really going to a new low, but it's most likely to occur in the Upper Midwest and NW.

We are really developing this Hadley Cell pattern in the Pacific.. this is vs the global temp

^He's talking about a +PDO, which is about the least-likely thing to happen on the planet right now. If the Winters cold, it won't be because N. Pacific SSTs are the driver. His analogs come out to a +1.5 Winter PDO average. We've never seen anything close to that jump before.. last year it almost neutralized from record levels in the Fall, but that might be the biggest jump on record, and H5 was leading.

You might say that these are not big anomalies, but this is the +AO that just won't go away. So persistent since May! There might really be the chance for some -EPO periods this Winter, as I believe a cold H5 over the Greenland part of the Arctic Circle correlates to -epo/+pna actually in the wintertime.. not sure I would forecast anything other than a negative PNA though with what's going on in the Pacific. We saw this same pattern last year until September.

I wouldn't discount a normal or slightly above normal snowfall season this year in the mean.. but the odds of a big one, like top 5% are probably much less... 1%

This is what the CANSIPS had for July at a 0.0 month lead

^Yeah, it's a pretty big anomaly because Strong La Nina's don't result in following El Nino's. Maybe it has something to do with if the event is West or East-based? I think you mean 1982, not 1988? Although the moderate El Nino in 87-88 did transition to a strong La Nina the following year. 82-83 was followed by 2 years of La Nina. I think that last year wasn't La Nina, given that it was Weak Nina by other metrics, and that we are doing it again here in the 2nd year means that the same pattern happened after the 23-24 Strong Nino. I do think that over 200-300 years of data the same pattern won't continue. But something is happening over the last 50 years that is making stronger Nino's reverse.

This La Nina tendency after Strong El Nino's is very interesting. What is happening 1998-2025 that is making it reverse so hard? I would think it's a matter of not having enough data, as ENSO events should run in a continuum but for the last few decades there have been big fluctuations. This happened in the 1970s and 1980s too.

ONI may not make the 5-month classification. SSTAs are still pretty warm. What's interesting is the difference between 3-month and 5-month classification in ONI since the CPC changed its guidelines a few years ago. If this year doesn't make 5-consecutive months: 5/32 recent years (since 1994) will have been ENSO Neutral, in 3-month ONI 8/32 recent years (since 1994) will have been ENSO Neutral, in 5-month ONI RONI/MEI are heading for Weak La Nina I think. MEI may even borderline Moderate Nina in a few monthlies. I found that central-ENSO-subsurface has the best classification with North Pacific pressure pattern, so if the subsurface cold water continues to strength, watch out for more -PNA N. Pacific patterns in the coming Fall/Winter. Very interesting how the SOI was so neutral at this time last year, and this year it's been positive every month since Oct 2024. SOI is kind of in its own world regarding the evolution of ENSO lately, but I think it's a good indicator.

30-day SOI is back above +5. 17/20 +SOI days in July so far. -3c pocket developing in the ENSO-subsurface

Talking on the internet is an extension of yourself. I'd argue that it's actually more real because the reflection is staring right back at you. With time, you start to communicate better. I know my posting has changed a lot from when I was young to now.. I didn't know completely how it would be perceived back then. In face-to-face talk it's very spontaneous.

Another note: Someone other than the Chiefs is expected to win the AFC West in current betting odds. Cleveland is least likely off all teams to win their division, although the NO Saints have the worst SB odds at 400:1 An all-New York super bowl is 250:1, although New York has the most championships in sports of all cities by a pretty good amount Other than that, I'm always surprised how uniform it is year-to-year. Defenses vary more than the betting odds suggest.

I'm actually stoked for the Ravens defense this season. And Derrick Henry is still in his prime.. age starts becoming a bigger factor next year.. the time might realistically be weighted toward now. I still think our WR corps are a little weak, but that and maybe kicker are the only soft spots on the team. At least we don't have the Bills WR's, they are currently tied with Ravens for #1 betting Super bowl odds: 1:6.5. Edit: I see the Eagles are back tied with the Ravens and Bills for #1.. they had fallen to #3 a few weeks ago.

I found that there was a clear N. Hemisphere SLP pattern, especially in the Atlantic, Apr-May before active vs inactive seasons. I posted about it here: We had a little bit of an opposite-tripole this year.

^Nice post. Pretty clear Atlantic-tripole there, with both phases considered. It's always fun to see whole patterns with good lead time. Also interesting the bullying of WPO and NAO as the both seem to correlate with warmer SSTAs near southern Asia. The lead SSTA's for Winter WPO I found peaks at +0.61 correlation just SE of India, Aug-Nov before Dec-March. Overall it's pretty high in the Indian Ocean late Summer-Fall before WPO-Winters. There is a +PDO in the Spring/early Summer to following Winter +WPO signal (and visa-versa) as well.

I don't even get where he stressed that it would be a mis-match Winter. I think every year it is said, "there is also the chance that mismatch could occur at sometime if X and Y", but that's just being wishy-washy imo.

It was a legitimate Winter cold period. There was not a SE ridge under -NAO like the last few years had, had. I realize NYC was not at the epicenter, but that doesn't mean anything less about it.. there were Winter time temperatures late November through late February, it ended very quickly after that but it was also the first prolonged below average period like that in more than several years.. I was thinking the cold Summer H5 +NAO last Summer might create a -EPO pattern, but I was a little taken by the +PNA and how the Fall -PDO basically had no effect on Winter temps until March. Phoenix broke their previous Summer record by a lot last year.. more than 40 days of consecutive 100F+ over year number 2. Those analogs were very +PNA Dec/Jan, I guess it had valiance, but I was a little skeptical.

How does an El Nino change the pattern beyond general global warming, which is a broad thing? I'm referring more to the -PNA pattern that has happened years after the Super Nino's of 97-98, 15-16, 23-24. (There's probably an answer but I don't know it). I'm talking about the meteorology aspect. You seem to be convinced that there firm or absolute starting points to "next level things", that we are counting 2, 8, and 27 years from. Maybe in a broad sense, but the problem has been upper latitude index patterns, and unless you can connect the adjoining features it's probably not something to be so absolute on. Last year from late Nov to late Feb we had a very cold period across the CONUS, which breaks the absolute theory, I don't remember you talking about that happening from last Fall.

I guess 1916-17 is his only one that makes sense. It was a -PNA Winter though, way below average in the West and Upper Midwest, average in the SE and Mid-Atlantic (vs 1900-2000 averages).

^lol, he's basically talking about a +PDO.

^Decadal trends are real. Some people don't get that for some reason. The Earth seems to move in waves, that are decades long. Now with all this data in 2025 we can map out the NAO/PDO and see that the standard deviation of random vs cycles is about 5:1 (5x more likely to be cyclical). The Earth is warming an average of 3-4F. ok. I don't think that applies to everything, and large scale patterns recently. The problem with data-analysis right now is that we might be in the middle of the -PDO/+NAO cycle, seeming like it's a one-way trend (with regards to the most talked about subject - Winter Northeast snowfall).

15/18 days in July have had +SOI now. This is after 9-straight +SOI months, going back to Oct 2024. July will likely be the 10th consecutive month. Here's what the next 10 months looks like in the roll-forward - 0.2 correlations is actually pretty decent for such a wide area of time.

Here is US pattern 5 months after 5-straight months of +AO (Aug-Dec)