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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I also had a 7" and 11" storm last Winter. If it wasn't 14 degrees and sleet, the Jan storm could have been 20"+. Sometimes exact snowfall numbers are taken too literally regarding possibility and potential
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Flow can be more NW -> SE in the cold part of Nina's, so threading the needle is possible on the coast. +ENSO tends to be more borderline in wintery events, favoring I-95 or NW, as a trough digs to our west with storms.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cold ENSO/Strong -QBO gave us a cold December last year too. 2021 was the exception, but it works in reverse too (cold ENSO/-QBO is cold). Even in Dec 2021 there was a >+300dm block in the N. Pacific. Move that 250 miles NE and it would have been cold. Of course the Nov Stratosphere warming last year was the reason.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    The difference between Weak vs Moderate vs Strong vs Super Nino is the same. In weaker events, the ENSO signal is weaker so other things dominate more, more randomness. Caveat being that East vs West based event does make a difference.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think the PDO may start to trend positive decadally when the Summer Arctic ice catches up with its previous trend or starts "evening out all this warm season cold anomaly". What do you think @40/70 Benchmark?
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    The odds of a cold Winter at all in the mean (DJFM) is probably like 15%. For the US as a whole maybe 10%. It's not a hard forecast.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think El Nino's in general are colder than people think in the US Winter. Caveat being that Nino 1+2 dominating and being like +4c could be pretty warm, at least in the NW 1/2 of the country.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a good point about the North Pacific and -PDO. You can see the clear correlation here But how impressive is that low pressure anomaly over Arctic for 11 warm seasons now (2019 was the exception)!
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Summer cold in the Arctic since the 2012 arctic ice melt low has really been phenomenal! Anyone want to offer a theory on why that is?
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Baltimore city forecast Thursday Sunny and hot, with a high near 106. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 81. Friday A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny and hot, with a high near 106. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good chance for an -AO this Winter in my opinion! The correlation to reverse conditions there between the warm and cold seasons has been strong since 2012! I think the period looked at is through September though.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's the NAO. I think the folder code is always pna. Here's PNA: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    09-10 was big +PNA. It was actually +PNA every month from June 2009 to April 2010
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Do we make it 6 months in a row of -PNA? 5940dm block over the PNA region is not a typical El Nino pattern. We aren't seeing that El Nino low pressure in the North Pacific at all, although at times US and Europe conditions have been close match.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Historic heat wave in Europe has correlation to ENSO
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like +9C is about to pop in the subsurface on TAO/Triton!
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wonder if Summer ridging at 90N is something that reverses long term, "evens out", like ENSO seems to do? We have been in a long, consistent cold period since 2016.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO is glaring there, look at this a -0.6 correlation in Louisiana! That's out of 1.0. I would agree, near normal, El Nino east or west based is usually colder than average there
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Check out how Nino 1+2 being warm (+2.8c) is hitting +correlation in the Rockies in the medium range.. means you might have to give warm Nino 1+2 analogs credence going forward The Rockies in the Summer recently have almost never seen that kind of cold. That's vs the 81-10 average
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Warm Nino 1+2 pattern hitting, despite strong decadal seasonal trend for warmth out there ^That's vs the 81-10 average. It's a really impressive cold shot being modeled
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty above average temps Jun 30 - July 6 on 12z EPS
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm a believer in utilizing reverse conditions. The dataset is limited, so historically La Nina's look different than the reverse of El Nino's (they both aren't warm in the east when strong). Some of that is because El Nino's tend to be more east-based, but there is still discrepancy in the reversals.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would say 72-73 and 23-24, although we risk the AO going more negative than those analogs. 15-16 would probably be my number 3
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    How did the JMA initialize the current Nino (I know it has a west or central-based configuration in the Winter)?
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