Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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August DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.0 -
+9c has popped in the subsurface on TAO/Triton for the first time of this event! It's warming pretty rapidly too, we may see a +10c in a couple of days. That's +18F, so if the water is usually 62F, it's now 80F.
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Yeah, I thought we were talking about ENSO. 1987 is a really good find, as that was one of the most El Nino Summers on record, JJA ONI was +1.5c, all time record for JJA is +1.6c
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No one takes it seriously though, because it's used so often. It's a good warning for a thunderstorm coming, I guess, which most people react to.
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Yeah, the real connection is with global temperatures. A huge trough over the North Pacific is necessarily Winter disaster for the east coast.
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*defend the system at all costs* lol I find it's a good topic to discuss here. They are just making people aware of a thunderstorm. It's less about severe intensity these days. We rarely get a severe storm compared to the Midwest though anyway. Not sure why there's near an equal number of warnings issued west to east.
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People think Super Nino means warm too automatically. The NAO/AO play a role, and if you map N. Pacific 500mb anomalies historically with Super Nino's you will see a N. Pacific trough placement in the cold season where it is usually doesn't extend a 2nd wave ridge so far east.
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Nothing defies the laws of physics lol. July will be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA, and projections through August 15 put it about -0.5 for the month by then. Do we make 7 in a row?
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Not sure what you're referring to here. Bluewave just made a good post, showing not a 5 degree difference in the July map, but 180 degrees, opposite. Even if we correlate with cooler conditions for a short time, I don't know that it will sustain. LR CPC outlooks are warm.
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I wouldn't call a little -0.25 area on a 324hr map "El Nino taking over the Hemisphere".
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Severe wx warnings never verify here, and every organized storm has a STW these days. I think I've had 43 severe storms warnings since my last severe storm (wind).
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Most Super El Nino's in history had a +AO/+NAO. It's not actually as correlated as that, so the sample is biased a little warm.
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^This is going to be about the best El Nino/-PDO analog we are ever going to get. You can probably also flip this Fall/Winters anomalies around in the future for La Nina/+PDO
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There's a lot of studies connecting things. Luckily we have data to see if it's backed up or not. I do have to admit, you were right about the +PMM leading to an east-based Nino though. The limited examples said Nino 3.4 based and that has not happened over the last few months. One of those things where there weren't enough samples to make that call and you had to use logic or common sense, the +PMM/Nino 1+2 warm worked pretty well, good job
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Just really pretty muted. If anything the orientation of precip is more La Nina like for +QBO. You are going to get some colors when it's only 64 years, random.
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Be careful connecting QBO to STJ, as the QBO is a Stratosphere wind oscillation. The correlations with the troposphere run pretty low, AO-correlation being the highest.
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Subsurface is looking like we're going to pop a +9c soon on TAO/Triton. It's warming currently as the Kelvin wave moves east. That would put us ahead of 1997.
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02-03 had plenty of examples.
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It was my first snowless Winter as a kid. Thankgoodness I didn't know about ENSO yet or I would have really realized the potential that could have been, especially with -NAO January. I think the AO will be more negative this coming Winter, which is good- widespread cold at times.
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I was just mentioning that your analog composite of <-60dm for DJFM is probably too low. I used 6 straight months of -PNA as an example. That doesn't mean I expect the PNA to be negative, just that there are competing forces right now.
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Yeah last Winter we had something like the 4th longest streak since the 1800s where Baltimore had >6" on the ground (22 days or something). I love that - 8" of snow and 3" of ice on top there for almost a whole month of the Winter! That storm was really anomalous to the overall pattern last Winter. I'm glad it was timed at the beginning of the pattern.
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Well I can at least say with high confidence that it won't be a DJFM <-60dm anomaly in the N. Pacific. In these different times, analogs only go so far (our historical database is somewhat limited to larger cycles). It will certainly be interesting to see what goes on in the N. Pacific this Fall/Winter with the SOI as a top-5 negative event since the 1800s. The SOI being positive relative to ENSO was correlating with -PNA, but now that's not the case this year.
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I had my biggest Winter last year since returning from CA in 2017, 24" here. -AO was the reason for that: but it was a dry pattern. In normal precip we could have done better. Kind of disappointing the last 2 Winters have been cold with below average snowfall.
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If I had to make a Winter prediction it would slightly lean towards above average snowfall. The reason is the AO may be negative a lot of the time, and that combined with El Nino STJ can really produce some big storms. On the other side the Pacific is not looking El Nino like at all, -PNA dominates, so we could be looking at a Winter overall above average temp wise with possibly average to above average snowfall.
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Might be a coincidence because QBO is a Stratosphere index, but +QBO/El Nino has the highest correlated above average Dec I have ever seen. We are going to be strong in both signal this year.
