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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    It will probably go Super, I just don't think it will be an all time record breaking event on the RONI. Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    @CAPE I dont get it either Chargers RB Keaton Mitchell calls out Ravens for spurning him in free agency They aren't able to extend Lamar either. He knows that he's worth more than Jordan Love, Tua, Dak Prescott, etc.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    ENSO vs PNA VP
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z EPS looks close to mid 90s, Tues May 19.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice 3 day run of -SOI 14 May 2026 1009.81 1010.30 -15.45 -5.70 -0.07 13 May 2026 1010.40 1010.50 -12.47 -5.50 0.32 12 May 2026 1011.99 1012.00 -11.78
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Where you been buddy? We miss you! Down about the MEI coming in lower?
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice pattern coming up Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Monday Sunny, with a high near 90. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    The 8 driest El Nino's with a RONI peak >+1.1 came out ... 2 El Nino - 3 Neutral - 3 La Nina the year after [27-28] ... the average RONI that next year is -0.15/yr.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    We might need a +5c El Nino to get that North Pacific High area - low pressure strong and persistent anomaly like 82-83 and 97-98. Right now I think the North pacific 500mb pattern may match 23-24 going forward more than other Stronger Nino's
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    EPS Days 11-15 looks nothing like May El Nino in the Pacific We may be running back 23-24 as far as the Pacific pattern goes
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Per RONI Nino 3.4, no Super El Nino was ever this low in mid-May. Might be Super per ONI and Strong, RONI.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    You are really latching onto the far east part of this 2nd Kelvin wave. When the next one moves across, warm subsurface anomalies will recenter - overall they are further west in the mean than 1997.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think this one is going to be as east as 1997. That one hugged South America The forcing with this one may actually be quite a bit more west Nino 4 is much different now than in 1997
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not really seeing much of a N. Pacific low or negative anomaly in the NPH area (-NOI) thus far.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    384hr on the mean has a respectable ridge
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ok, I was just basing it on the SOI. I'm sure those reconstructed events aren't too far off though. Still a point though, that the opposite of Strong La Nina's is not matching Strong El Nino's.. relatively small number of samples. they are both anomalies of the same thing so should reverse each other. I think filter out the NAO and extreme-east based events and Strong Nino's aren't as warm in the East in the Winter as people think.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Yeah, we now have >+6c on TAO/Triton below Nino 1+2, which is the highest of the event so far This is as the 1st Kelvin wave is far east though.. I don't know that the mean doesn't happen further west. I'm thinking basin-wide like 15-16. (I guess technically it's the 2nd Kelvin wave as the first one happened mid-Winter.)
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    6z GEFS in the long range is also building a ridge. This has been on the model for the last 4-5 runs now, for the last week of May
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Negative H5 dropping into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, progressing east, is our best Summer pattern for storms
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z EPS is quite warm around May 17-18 then above average for the 2nd half of the month
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    That CFS model runs 4x a day. To only find slightly below average temps in that is not a big accomplishment lol
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not even in Weak Nino threshold in almost mid May.. RONI has some ground to cover if this is going to be Super 57-58, +2.0 peak was +1.1 in May 65-66, +2.0 peak was +0.6 in May 72-73, +2.3 peak was +0.9 in May 82-83, +2.5 peak was +0.8 in May 91-92, +2.3 peak was +0.5 in May *closest analog 97-98, +2.4 peak was +1.0 in May 15-16, +2.4 peak was +0.8 in May
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    The 1895-1950 composite has some very warm Strong Nina Winter's. Since the dataset is somewhat small, flip that signal around for Strong Nino's unless it is based way more east... Here on the EC you don't call Strong La Nina's and Strong El Nino's both warm, if they are both based in Nino 3.4. People fall in the trap of looking solely at analogs, and imo this El Nino is developing a bit different (forcing west) vs previous Super Nino's.
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