Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Subsurface is actually falling behind 1997 right now (+9c vs +7c). There is however a Kelvin Wave hitting the central-subsurface, so maybe it will increase eastern anomalies in a few weeks. Timing of gravity waves is not always the same in different ENSO events. -
Western subsurface is not really cold like you see in a lot of developing Super Nino's by now.
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I find it interesting that we had a massive N. Pacific low as recent as 15-16. That was a big +PDO year, even before the pattern happened. Is the PDO really that important or is it actually just a global warming occurrence??
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111 in Billings, MT is insane. They just had snow in Montana 2 weeks ago! Do you guys notice this see-saw happening more times that not, although France is just exceeding and exceeding their records, not wavering back and forth between warm and cold there.
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^ 6000dm is extending all the way to just south of Canada. That has to be some kind of record. Jul-Aug correlation to ENSO. Forgive me for including August but these are the 2 hottest months of the year.
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I'm just thinking a 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 monster North Pacific High low pressure may be a thing of the past. Those were monster troughs, Super El Nino driven. Does the PDO really make that much of a difference? -PDO strongest 3 El Nino's. A little different south of the Aleutians lol
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Maybe neutral in the Pacific. It's all High pressure at the very end Even a "Weak Nino" should be spinning up a low somewhere in the N. Pacific right now. We are obviously in a pattern that is more dominant
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I'll go warmer on the August pattern This one has nothing to do with -NAO/AO
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Looking like July is going to be the 6th straight month with -PNA (CPC) 2026 0.79 -0.56 -1.74 -1.26 -1.27 -0.50
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June was AAO's 6th most extreme month on record, since 1979. 6/570. +2.506
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Current Atlantic SSTA is hopeful for -NAO bouts this Winter. Unfortunately the Pacific is as hard core -PDO as it has ever been (despite El Nino). I do think it is possible to get -EPO in El Nino. reverse 1895-1950 La Nina's are very -epo/el nino.
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Yeah let's see if we can get a +500dm -NAO. In Super El Nino STJ that is the best case scenario. Feb 1983 was -NAO as whole. We have however seen 13 straight +NAO Feb's. Let's see if we can break that lol 2014 1.34 2015 1.32 2016 1.58 2017 1.00 2018 1.58 2019 0.29 2020 1.26 2021 0.14 2022 1.68 2023 0.92 2024 1.09 2025 1.60 2026 0.68 1983 -0.5
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Again it looks like a nice thunderstorm pattern.
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PDO was positive in 82-83 It was a +AO Winter however. A few things that I look at in the warm season, posted earlier in the thread are going toward more -AO this coming Winter. So that's a plus.
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Oh, I thought it was recent. My mistake. Facebook things posted out of context. I assumed the record cold >80N was creating a ridge underneath. The cold this year up there is certainly impressive!
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I just saw this Apparently it was verified by the WMO
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Did you see that it just hit 100 degrees in the Arctic circle for the first time ever, on the Russia side.
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+5c -PDO warm pool lol
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Yeah, historical composite is somewhat limited. There were plenty of +EPO/+WPO La Nina's in the 1895-1948 dataset.
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It's May-Sept. We are 42% of the way through. May was pretty neutral in N. Atlantic SSTA. Cold pool, -NAO orientation has only appeared in June and July.
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I wouldn't worry about that lol. -NAO in Super Nino STJ is ideal. Question is if the Pacific will still respond to decadal +EPO/-PNA pattern.
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My point is they are one in the same - If you take the chlorophyll out of 1 green leaf, it is X amount of chlorophyll "Weak". If you take the chlorophyll out of 5 green leaves, it is still 5x amount of chlorophyll "Super". Everyone thinks ENSO events are a different entity in different strengths. That's not true at all. It's true that where they are based or dominant makes a difference, but a "Super Nino" is not actually different from "Weak Nino" except that it's impact - on the same thing - is greater.
