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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm not too sure we go cold ENSO after this El Nino. We had 5/6 recent Nina years. History says 4/6+ reverses +1-4 years 2:1 (El Nino favored 2x over La Nina) We also had a Strong Nino in 23-24, history says +3-5 years after that, El Nino is also favored 2:1. +ENSO tendency for 27-28 and 28-29 may temper the Nina snap back.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Global SSTA are about as classic as it gets right now for later in the year Nino 3.4 El Nino ^Even the Atlantic matches lol
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I plotted from Don's warmest DJFM Phoenix years.. it's surprising that the DJFM that occurred a year later is cold in the SW. It has historically snapped back the following year.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good stuff Don. +4.2F over DJFM number 2 is amazing stuff.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    88 in DCA just like that. Warmth is the story this March/April 1. When the SW, US is warm first, we usually bust high a few degrees.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    My 7th 80 of the year? something like that? Maybe it's number of 76+. Either way, we had a glacier of snow for a month 6 weeks ago. Nice contrast!
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it will be basin-wide like 2015-16 2015-16 is also a +QBO match later in the year, and Phoenix which broke it's DJFM Temp record by 4.2 degrees this past Winter, number 2 on record was 2014-15, before the 2015 El Nino. Best analog right now imo
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15): April 1997: +0.59 April 2015: +0.98 We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, April 1997 had a really warm subsurface
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Tomorrow we might hit +5c in the subsurface on TAO/Triton. I don't think I've ever seen it so warm. Will have to compare vs analogs.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Brings ENSO warm as far west as New Guinea lol
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Last Summer the CANSIP had -5 anomalies around the Great Lakes and Midwest at 0.0 month (the 1st of the month). It verified +2-3 lol
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hitting 79 an hour earlier than yesterday.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^CPC was putting out long range Winter outlooks that looked like that: warm in the SE, cooler in the NE. Then last month they updated with a full on El Nino composite for the Winter.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Oh no! That's the best site on the internet! Why the heck would they stop it?
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's still March. Where you been?
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Death Valley beating it by 5 degrees is more impressive. They are much further south.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    March 31 Nino 4 is >+0.5... +0.525 This is way ahead of other later in the year >+1.2 El Nino's.. only 2015 and 1997 were greater for the month of April. April 1957 -0.06 April 1963 -0.34 April 1965 -0.92 April 1968 -0.46 April 1972 +0.11 April 1982 +0.33 April 1986 -0.34 April 1987 +0.08 April 1991 +0.34 April 1994 +0.11 April 1997 +0.59 April 2002 +0.41 April 2009 -0.26 April 2015 +0.98 April 2023 +0.13
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    March monthly SOI came in at +7.59. Since 1950, no >+1.2 later in the year El Nino had a March SOI >5.5 fwiw. Only 1 had SOI >2.1 Doesn't mean it can't happen, 15 total examples (RONI) March 1957 -2.7 March 1963 +5.5 March 1965 +2.1 March 1968 -3.6 March 1972 +1.2 March 1982 +0.7 March 1986 -0.3 March 1987 -16.1 March 1991 -10.1 March 1994 -10 March 1997 -7 March 2002 -5.6 March 2009 -1.3 March 2015 -10.7 March 2023 -1.78
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Before today.. warmest March on record for CONUS
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    The 1950s? lol
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm already at 79F.. 1:10pm.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think he's look at NOAA. He referenced Feb as around -1, which is noaa
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Progression of yearly SSTA with January PDO. It doesn't correlate really strong until August. And Aug-Sept-Oct is exponentially higher than Spring/early Summer.. doesn't matter as much through June.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just think it could be a little surprising the possibility for colder conditions in Stronger El Nino. A few of them occurred in the 1895-1948 dataset. The # of samples we have right now is skewed a little warm and too +NAO, imo. Of course we have this global warming spike hitting the West coast and Rockies so we'll see if next Winter doesn't try to repeat the dataset.
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