Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Thanks! They don't have SST so I will still have to find something for May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTA index. Here's that arctic -H5 for the warm season this year 90N.. just where my reverse correlation for the Winter is the highest. Expect 90N H5 ridging for the DJFM mean. -
Thanks!
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Well in the Deep south +2-7F occurred in August and the model at a 0.0 month lead had ~0F. Denver verified +4F vs the models -3F.
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It's interesting because it seems to be effecting the Southern Hemisphere. October is the start of big wavelength correlations, so it will be so interesting to see what happens in about a month! If the -H5 doesn't form over the N. Pacific, score a big one for the PDO.
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I've been traumatized by this ridge in the SW, US/Rockies for the past 1 year. There are +6F anomalies for the whole 12 months! Also looking at global temperature every day, it really has gone warm lately. France has also seen 5 record breaking heat waves this Summer. Number 6 upcoming. We can do a cold pattern in the Winter, but I don't know that the upper latitudes (blocking potential) won't be squeezed out by El Nino or the -PDO/whatever the global pattern is in the Pacific. Fairbanks, Alaska was 1F away from their lowest Summer max temp all time, and I ran those analogs forward to find out they go +EPO in Winter.
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^It must have an error with surface based warmth then.
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Its 0.0 month lead forecasts are so bad that it will probably hold that look up until Dec lol
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CANSIPS has a pretty strong cold bias.. check out what it had for August at 0.0 month lead vs what actually happened. July 25 it did the same thing, -4 areas verifying at +2 and stuff like that.
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5 Super east-based Nino's on record since 1948 (ONI) [72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24] had the following ENSO +1-2 years after (RONI): 9 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino +1 year: 5 La Nina's 0 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino +2 year: 4 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino
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-AO/+NAO. There is like 90% corrlation between nao and ao, mostly over Greenland. The actual 60-90N Im calling AO but officially it's 90% correlated to NAO domain, further SE.
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Since 2012 May-Sept SLP 60-90N is reversing 60-90N H5 for the Winter. A lot of that raw +correlation is NAO-related.
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Yeah 20 years of global warming after that. We realistically need a -EPO or -NAO. A lot of people don't realize, but we have yet to see our 1st N. Pacific trough since the El Nino developed! A lot of these Super Nino analogs have something like -150dm for DJFM, lack of awareness about the current pattern imo
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Cold water developing to the west. Also subsurface anomalies approaching -3c below 150E. We may be headed to La Nina for 27-28.
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Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months 2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2025 Aug +PNA 2026 Aug +PNA 2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO 2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO
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CANSIPS had a cool August for places that ended up +4F at a 0.0 month lead. In the south it had near 0F forecast, and it was +4-6f. Terrible forecast when the first 15 days of the month are already short range modeled.
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Nov and Dec are the warmest months. Matches the ENSO analog set. Kind of interesting that 01-02 which was the strongest +EPO on record never got above 82F in Fairbanks all earlier that year. But that's just 1 example.
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Aug was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Here's how that historically rolls forward to the cold season
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NWS Fairbanks on X: "Through August 30th, Fairbanks has experienced its coldest year to date in 54 years (since 1972), with an avg temp of 28.7°F ranking as the 11th coldest year to date. The warmest temp recorded this year was 81°F, the 2nd coldest maximum ever. Here's a look at the numbers. #akwx" / X I don't know how to embed, but the lowest Summer maxes in Fairbanks since 1980.. 3 of them roll forward to a good +EPO signal for the following Winter
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lol I wonder how much people are paid to program these models Where's the raindancewx post where Canadian had a cool Aug for the US at 0.0 month lead and it was near the warmest on record!
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Nearly -200dm N. Pacific trough in February. Color me skeptical. These models were so bad in 23-24.
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September 2026 Medium/Long Range
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to JenkinsJinkies's topic in Mid Atlantic
Rockies ridge has been the pattern for a while.. +6F anomalies for almost a year is impressive! -
September DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.9 1.1 0.7 3.0 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.8 0.4
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I've been getting warmer indicators on the Winter than a month ago. Will have to find a site that does SSTA for the whole May-Sept period
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The problem with that is, whatever is happening at the time is correlated to the linear rise in temperature. I would think there would just be more global high pressure, a more stable system - bigger swings does not jive with a total warming climate. 09-10 was the lowest NAO since the mid 1800s. I thought global warming would really inflate high pressure at the poles - but the opposite has happened over the last 11 years. Now it's swings or whatever that is the product of global warming. Something else I think is causing the mid latitude temps to rise relative to the poles.
