Jump to content

Stormchaserchuck1

NO ACCESS TO PR/OT
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,735

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look at how bad it did south of the Aleutian islands That's why seasonal models showing a -200dm +PNA this Feb I don't think will be right. The pattern hasn't been happening recently.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    3 days of <-30 SOI in a row 18 Sep 2026 1010.91 1014.40 -34.52 -18.69 -21.31 17 Sep 2026 1011.10 1014.00 -31.02 -18.48 -21.12 16 Sep 2026 1011.63 1015.00 -33.81 -18.19 -20.84 September is going to finish pretty strongly -SOI, making May-Sept one of the more -SOI periods on record. Here is what follows the following year (+16 months): [map default is +correlation, so for -SOI it's opposite]
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Let's hope the SE Canada ridge doesn't build in October like it did in 2023 CPC's October forecast released today
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Crazy that 23-24 Winter had an overall -AO DJFM in the mean, with 3/4 months negative. Was the warmest Winter on record for US Actually since 22-23 every Winter Dec-Mar in the mean has been -ao, albeit slightly.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Bel Air 15 minutes away had 3". A little bit of elevation made a big difference! That was the storm where the sky lit up 20+ times with green lightning flashes.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I had a surprise 7" snow early last December.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    lmao I like the 4980dm that's happening over the Arctic right now. There will be -AO periods this Winter.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Historically warm Nino 1+2 in Oct doesn't look like that. Winter, yes, not october based on the last 73 years. I'd say the H5 model you are posting is more opposite than similar in the n. pacific
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC going with it
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a 2std -PDO pattern.. obviously continues to hold the crown as correlation leader in the N. Pacific.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks for posting that.. basically net neutral from 30-90N, same story.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll take the under on a warm Christmas. There really aren't enough examples to be so confident in it. This is true for Super Nino's general.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    This October watch to see if US goes colder or not. El Nino's are historically cold in Oct. Pac pattern in Oct is pretty connected to the Winter.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    A few La Nina/-QBO's had crazy N. Pacific blocks in December.. >+200dm. That would be a wildcard for Dec, a monster N. Pacific low, if the PDO wasn't going against it so hard and recent patterns.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think you are paying too much attention to one part - ENSO. ENSO's propagation to the northern latitudes are 2nd and 3rd effects. Sometimes patterns set up in the mid latitudes. A greater El Nino response than 2015 is crazy imo. DJFM had nearly -120dm in the N. Pacific. We have not seen that like at all in 11 years, this record El Nino summmer included.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    498dm low in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    498dm in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days. Continuing the warm season theme from 2024 and 2025.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Must be one heck of an El Nino pattern in the Southern Hemisphere.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Super Nino's are huge hit or total miss because of monster N. Pacific low correlation. Our top snowstorms are like -150dm GOA low pattern. The "El Nino pattern" has yet to happen this year. Doesn't mean that it won't happen going forward but you have to consider the strong -PDO N. Pacific pattern that we have had since 2016.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Look at all that water. Good sign for the Winter probably if it gets cold enough.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Should be interesting to see if we follow the last 3 El Nino's post-2016 PDO-change in October with a SE ridge and an area of real cold. 1948-2020 Oct Nino:
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    lmao You should have seen how far off it was Days 1-5
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here bluewave posted this in another thread
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think the US record is 6038dm or something like that.. imagine challenging it in mid-September, and not even over the most favorable zone SW, US
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Are we really getting such a large 500mb ridge? Surface temps aren't as impressive as H5. That's actually not too far away from the all time US record. I wonder if we are shattering mid-Sept US record?
×
×
  • Create New...