Stormchaserchuck1

The start of an arctic pattern if it verifies

My dog is outside barking, so I go outside to get him and am surprised to see a flash of lightning to my NW! Does anyone have flurries or anything?

So Dec 2025 will be the most negative NAO Winter month (DJFM) since December 2010! 15 years, and 60 Winter months! With the 1st half of January looking like -NAO, we may beat the record for most -NAO Winter since 2010-2011. We need -0.24 for the Winter average to have that, and through Jan 15, we will have about -1.00, meaning that we need <+0.50 for the 2nd half of Winter to have the most -NAO Winter in 15 years! Nice longer term pattern brake.

Unfortunately, the Pacific 500mb doesn't change into a favorable state until mid month. (Unless models are wrong of course)

Interesting look for the 240hr storm With the Pacific H5, DC is usually a little too warm in reality, but places north of Baltimore could have a shot.

December 2025 is likely to be the lowest Winter month NAO (DJFM) since Dec 2010! 15 years! With -NAO projected for the start of Jan, it's also looking more likely that we'll have the lowest -NAO Winter (DJFM) since 10-11. We need to beat -0.24 Winter average for that to happen.

I've found that deep 500mb patterns are reversing year-to-year, at a much greater rate than random, 8x more likely to be a pattern than random. Jan 15 - Feb 5 last year had a +200dm Aleutian/GOA ridge. I was saying in the Summer, that period, Jan 15-Feb 5 could have a negative anomaly in that position.

Models are looking good for mid-January. The only issue is how far out it is. It's a shame this deep -NAO trough for the next 7 days will be dry, but -NAO's usually are a drier pattern in La Nina.

Pitt is only favored by -3 tomorrow.

I think CAPE has been drinking. You don't score 41 points on the road against a playoff team with your backup QB and fire your OC. It's interesting that Lamar has not beat a team over .500 all season.. both wins against good teams were Huntley.

I just know from experience that a bad Pacific/good Atlantic usually trends warmer. The NAO has rarely been negative in long duration since 2011, so yeah some of that is the NAO trending in the wrong direction. +EPO's can be underrated though, and models don't really get the strength of the Pacific jet right from this range. Sometimes it will trend away from +epo though.

Pacific isn't perfect is a 504dm Polar Vortex over Alaska lol. That's going to trend warmer unless the PV gets out of there..

Oh, I thought you were talking about a potential phase lol

564dm over DC and Baltimore?

In January we really need to change the PNA. It has a higher correlation with SE ridge or EC trough, than other months like Dec and March. +0.4 temp correlation in Jan. Hr384 of 12z GEFS is trying to change the PNA. It has a -NAO as well. I like the progression toward mid-January if it can hold going forward..

I didn't realize that we are getting nearly a +600dm anomaly over Greenland in 2.5 days. Big -NAO. And it reloads 3x. This is the 384hr prog from the 18z GEFS. I like the progression.. building -NAO (again), and a different Pacific evolving from -PNA

Today's Euro weeklies for Jan 19-26 have a colder look Equal chances on todays 3-4 Week CPC outlook

Not really going to do it with 507dm over Alaska. Surface cold air is cutoff.

Really respectable -NAO showing up in the long range on 12z GFS ensembles. Near +300dm on the mean south of Greenland at hr384.

I bought in at $48! Trying to decide whether to sell today, or hold on a little longer. That $50 mark was a top that held for 50 years when just about every other metal has hit a new all time high, so when it finally passed it, it accelerated. Gold had its 2nd best year since the 1970s in 2025. It has an Up signal for next year, per a method I've backtested..

Oct 1-30: +60 days Nov 1-15: +50 days Nov 15-30: +45 days Dec 1-15: +40 days Dec 15-30: +35 days Jan 1-15 +30 days Jan 15-30 +25 days Feb 1-20: +20 days Feb 20-March 30: +15 days Apr 1-15: +10 days Something like that..

Doesn't have to be a reversal to have impact/correlation

I don't know about that, but at the time of the Stratosphere warming long range weeklies were not showing a -NAO in the +30-35 day typical lag time. Maybe they were assuming it all happens at the same time and since the 10mb warming was waning without -NAO, that they thought that was the end of it? There is a spike in -NAO probability +35 days after a late November 10mb warming (it's a different lag time at different times in the cold season.. longer early in the Winter, and in early April it's as soon as +10 days.) 10mb warming events can happen as soon in the year as Sept 30, with a +60 day typical lag time to -NAO. Reflective is probably just an adjoining of the upper levels and 500mb. Sometimes they hit at Day+0 together, but the actual -NAO 500mb correlation is up to 3x higher +laggedtime.

I use 10mb anomaly as a base. It had to clear +1000 over a 8+ day period to qualify. I think that includes some weaker events.

Live and learn. I love techniques that have that kind of a lag time (>+20 days).. It should be noted that Stratosphere cooling events do not have a lag. They correlated with +AO at Day-0. This is for all times of the cold season.