Stormchaserchuck1

1948-2022, we had 12 named storms or less for all Moderate+ El Nino's. Then in 2023, we had 20 Named storms during a Strong El Nino! The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 20 named storms forming, tied with 1933. It was a Strong El Nino. That indicated a general increase in Atlantic storm probability.

Latest SSTA.. cold water off of Africa, warm Gulf of Mexico. Nino 1+2 warm, Nino 3/4 cold.

Yeah, east vs west-based ENSO is different. East has more of a North Pacific high correlation, and west is more connected to PNA.

Not to be confused with it correlating with NAO.. big difference. An example: There are 8 Weak La Nina's and 6 have -NAO. You would think that they are connected, but that's actually too low of a sample size. I just use the NAO in this example to provide a divider so that it can be more easily understood what I mean. It's a tough one to overcome believe it or not mentally, but given 100 historical examples, Weak ENSO will look "weak" in the composite, and Strong ENSO will look strong.. however, what they are correlated to (SE ridge or whatever) will be in the same spot in both sample sets, given enough examples.

Too bad it's not 1 month sooner, or this would have been snow Rain, 38F Not bad for a monster 500mb ridge over us.

I mean in the maps.. with 100 years more data, Weak ENSO events will look "weak" in the composites. and strong ENSO events will give a "strong" signal. The problem now with 7-9 years in the data is that other things like the NAO have more impact with weaker ENSO. (It doesn't have to do with the frequency of Weak vs Moderate vs Strong events occurring, I'm talking about their correlated effects - stronger has stronger effects, weaker has weaker effects).

^It's one of the highest correlations I've ever done on the NOAA Physical science maps. If you have the time, I highly recommend that people go back to 1948 (the start of their dataset) and look at all cold season 10mb events vs the 500mb pattern. What I found is spectacular! The Stratosphere warming (+10mb geopotential height) signal translates to -NAO at different times of the year: October: +60 days November: +45 days December: +30 days January: +25 days February: +20 days March: +15 days April: +10-15 days The mean for daily composites in the allotted times was as high as a +120dm -NAO mean signal! For cold Stratosphere times (-10mb geopotential height), it's not the same as a warming! The effect on the surface and 500mb is immediate! October: + 0 days November: + 0 days December + 0 days January: + 0 days February: + 0 days March-April: + 0 days We are still mastering science, and I expect improvements with further research, but the basic reading is already a high correlated factor, generally. This particular one is not hitting it besides a 3-4 day period though. Not really surprising because we had so many strong/near record breaking +NAO periods in 2024.

Weak vs Moderate vs Strong ENSO is just different amplitude of the same thing. I think the differences are just from not having enough climate data and weaker events having more weight from other things. With 50-100 more years of climate data, the differences will be sorted out and you'll only see a "weak" vs "strong" signal in the data.

Stratosphere warming is still going strong.. one of the strongest ones in history, actually, because it's having these +1800dm anomalies cover 3-4 weeks. I think the highest I ever saw 10mb get historically on a daily was +2900dm. Latest daily map 3-10 is about when it started.. last 22 days: It will probably last for another week.

Northern Hemisphere version of SOI. Pressure difference between the North Pacific High and Tahiti I think.

We are going to have a -NAO event in 4-5 days.. it's trended less cold in the US, but for like 5 days the NAO will be effected in the typical time lag period. Edit: It is a 4 week major Stratosphere warming, and we aren't going to get 3-4 weeks of -NAO, you are right about that.. They couple with major -NAO +time historically about 2/3 times. This was also the 1st Stratosphere warming event since Nov.. it's been all cold Stratosphere Nov-Feb

Stratosphere Polar Vortex was strong, then it got ripped apart in March. https://x.com/NOAAClimate/status/1907805453859295460 Since 2000, these are the analogs where we had a strong 10mb PV Nov-Feb, getting torn up in March. Look at how in the following May, it shows this battle over the Arctic at 500mb.. it takes time for Stratosphere to make it to the surface.. in this case 2 months. There is even a +100dm anomaly over the Hudson Bay which is anomaly for 8 years in a short wavelength month like May. Following June-Sept: Again, see how the ridging gets split in middle by Arctic trough. Dominant 10mb vortex recenters with High pressure actually getting moved to the edges, down to the surface. ^It has even + and - years (4-4), so there's no global warming general thing in play. The warm March seems to be a warm signal for the Summer.

Here's the SSTA change year-to-year, shows where it is compared to last year at this time: That cool water near Africa actually has a correlation of spreading west for the season. Here was my post on opposite conditions last year:

Well there's no thunderstorms, like at all.. I hope this cap holding is not a trend that continues into the Summer like it did last year.

Definitely a big bust on severe wx in the area today. It looks like the only place that is hitting is way down near Arkansas and Tenn.

That means if you subtract 0.2 to account for global warming trend (which is about what it is: 0.2 to 0.3), this event did officially hit Weak Nina.

What's your prediction, Barry?

We did have +NOI, which is a little High pressure off the West coast. That's what I look for, for ENSO effects. And the year before in Strong El Nino, although we had mostly -PNA, it was -NOI. The North Pacific High region has greatest ENSO correlation effects, not the PNA (very misunderstood).. although I guess you can say in west-based events it's more PNA-correlated.

CSU's numbers were way high last year.. I think they were going with a near record season. I think Gawx has researched it, and come to the conclusion that they have an over-active bias on seasonal forecasts, based on several years of putting out forecasts. I don't think 17NS, 9 Hurricanes is that far off the progression average though.. 8 of the last 9 years have had 7+ Hurricanes. 4 of the last 5 years have had 18+ Named Storms. We had a quiet period mid-season last year that may signal a turn to less active conditions though.

This STJ aspect of this past Winter really looks like a La Nina

This is what the Winter looks like vs the 30-year average I'll probably give my Winter forecast a "D+". It's a D because of precip. March ended up pretty much wiping out the negative temp anomalies. When the US climate division data updates, which is usually about mid-month, ill do a final map comparison and analysis on my discussion forecast.

Pretty much a >90% chance it will be negative for the Winter. -QBO with El Nino favors Stratosphere warmings. The weight is 3-1. I'm not saying this next Winter will be El Nino, that's just the strongest correlation with -QBO. Last Winter the +QBO really correlated at 10mb. Paired up with -ENSO, they usually work out that way. March actually has a pretty neutral historical signal.. and it was warm Stratosphere March

Pattern is moistening up now.. I've noticed that everytime we have an oncoming drought in the eastern 1/2 of the country, it gets wet real fast, since 2002 really.

+35 SOI today. +26 yesterday. It's been positive every day since February 24th.. today marks the 40th consecutive day in a row. It's been making runs like this, and makes me thing that we continue to work with a long term -ENSO state. From 2020-2023, the SOI was positive 31 months in a row! ^Even during the Strong El Nino, the SOI was not that negative relatively, and matched the lack of big +PNA pattern that year.

Here's a good image showing how the subsurface has been leading the surface for some time.. even before 2 years ago, it was working with a good lead time like this.. I would have to go through those long ENSO threads to find the older data, but I'm pretty sure it's been like this for 3-4 years.