Stormchaserchuck1

They almost blocked that FG at the end. I don't know how the guy didn't block it actually, he had a completely clear lane to the kicker. 40 points, no INTs, 235 rushing yds and losing lol. The defense has been off since that D-coordinator who is now coach of SEA left. They have like 6 pro bowlers on defense. No excuses it should be that terrible. Buffalo was completing sidelines passes when they needed to.. last play of the half etc. It's pretty easy to defend against a desperate situation you would think...

We haven't been seeing a big Aleutian ridge though. It looks like a vortex over the Arctic circle will get down below 4950dm tomorrow! That is probably record breaking, occurring just north of Russia and coming in close to -500dm. These vortexes over the last few weeks have been something, in the last few days of August we also had a sub-5000dm vortex over the Arctic circle. These extremes are similar to like Cuba hitting freezing.

The Apr-May SLP pattern in the Atlantic was a giveaway.. something to look at in future years. Pattern never really supported a major warming of tropical Atlantic SSTs.

Atlantic (NAO) has slight inverse correlation from October to the Winter Pacific has a pretty strong direct correlation from October to the Winter, a lot of that is around the PDO, which is strongest in Oct out of PNA/ENSO.

Again, be happy it's not Winter August 2025 was the 6th consecutive +AO month. (Mar-Aug) August 2025 was the 7th consecutive +NAO month. (Feb-Aug) August 2025 was the 5/6 consecutive -PNA month. (Mar-Aug [Jul])

August 2025 was the 6th consecutive +AO month. (Mar-Aug) August 2025 was the 7th consecutive +NAO month. (Feb-Aug)

It looks like the Arctic circle vortex gets down to 5000dm today. This is after we just had a 4980dm low in the last few days of August, which was lowest ever recorded in the N. Hemisphere for August. Really a strong +AO time.

snowman19 has been pretty accurate with his predictions. Don't underestimate him.

Yeah, super rare.. like I said, a -400dm anomaly within 45 days of the hottest day of the year, that far south is really impressive!

Looks like it came south with the Pacific pattern, probably more -PNA than -EPO but I haven't seen the H5. Last months had a +SLP over Alaska and a low pressure underneath of it. This one doesn't really have that southern low. And it looks +NAO.

QBO actually works well with ENSO state for 10mb. El Nino/-QBO gives about 75% odds for Winter Stratosphere warmings, and La Nina/+QBO gives about 75% for Winter cold Stratosphere. Last year was Weak La Nina per RONI and with +QBO, it was one of the coldest 10mb's on record Nov-Feb. 2 years ago in -QBO/Strong El Nino we had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. ENSO and the QBO are at odds this Winter. In an unconnected ENSO state it runs about 55-60% warm 10mb for -QBO and 55-60% cold for +QBO. Remember, the QBO is a Stratosphere index, What it means at the surface depends on a lot of in between factors. I think we are pretty split this Winter on -NAO or +NAO indicators, with this recent 6-7 month consecutive +AO/+NAO usually rolling forward to the Winter for the same thing at about 0.2 correlation or 60% probability. Cold H5 during the Summer since the Arctic ice melt low in 2012 has usually put a following Winter ridge at 90N. I think we can possibly be looking at some -AO this Winter, but further south in the N. Atlantic it may be +NAO. The Stratosphere should be warm some of the time with strong -QBO in place, but that occurrence has time lag to -AO events at +15-45 days (depending when in the Winter the Stratosphere warming happens). It's actually really hard to say what XQBO will do to the pattern, since it occurs >30,000ft in the atmosphere. There is some Asia Mountain Torque possibility, which sometimes leads to +PNA, but the correlation on that is actually really weak.

GFS ensemble mean has -400dm over Wisconsin in 2 days. I wonder when was the last time we had the 5400dm line in the US within 45 days of the hottest of the year? It comes in as purple, and that's been a rare pattern lately, only really happening over the AO and NAO regions.

The actual correlation to the Winter NAO consists of two area: cold up north, and warm below New Foundland correlates with Winter +NAO and warm up north and cold below New Foundland correlations with Winter -NAO. Erin really did a lot of cooling in the southern region, but it's actually a 5-month average (May-Sept), and May-Aug so far is running +NAO probability because the north part has been so cold. Here's the Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs -> Winter NAO correlation (default positive) Here is May-Aug so far: Weak Winter +NAO signal overall. Edit: ^That was only August, but it does show how we are progressing lately. Here is May-Aug.. it comes out at a +0.22 DJFM mean NAO prediction

It's been pretty constant central-subsurface cold since the 23-24 El Nino. You can see how the surface has been running much warmer than the subsurface (more credence to RONI), which makes me think that when we finally do shift to El Nino, it will be warmer than the subsurface Kelvin Waves would indicate. Pretty good chance we go to El Nino in 2026 or 2027.

Which ones? I have been below average every Winter since 15-16, and there have been 6 La Nina's in that time (RONI).

+NAO's run wetter, so when that phases with the northern stream, as rare as it is, it produces a lot of good snowfall.

A lot of disparity in the forecasts this month. Even the CPC's outlook released today looks crazy based on how the 1st half of the month will likely turn out (especially in the NW).

DCA: -2.6 NYC: -2.0 BOS: -1.6 ORD: -3.5 ATL: -0.8 IAH: -0.1 DEN: +0.5 PHX: +0.4 SEA: +3.0

When I was researching 10mb events, about Sept 25 is when bigger things start to occur. In late Sept/Oct the correlation with warm Stratosphere to -NAO is actually +60 days! So a warming event would predict a -NAO in late November or December. Cold Stratosphere/+AO is +0 days, right to the surface, as it is the whole cold season.

August finishes the 13th straight month with +SOI, albeit weak

13-14 was a really rare N. Hemisphere 500mb is very unlikely to happen again for a long time. Probably >1/100 year occurrence with such a strong +NAO and cold. For variance, we've never come close to having a strong -NAO with such above average temps, although since 2013 there has been a weaker -NAO/warm EC correlation.

I expect a warmer than average Oct-Nov, as the PDO has really high correlation in these months for above average CONUS. It even correlates higher than the PNA if you can believe it, and much higher than Nino 3.4 in the Fall, although both are generally above average.

I saw bluewave posted in the climate change forum, The Arctic circle trough that I had been tracking ended up maxing out at 4980dm yesterday, which is the lowest 500mb height on record in the Northern Hemisphere for August. It's akin to the 10" of snow that fell in Florida last Winter happening again.

^I don't think it's going to be as much of a blowout +NAO Winter as we previously thought, but there is still strong tendency for us to pattern change 10 days to a few weeks after a cold period, that has been in effect for a while now. I don't see 13-14 style cold happening this Winter. -NAO/-AO/+PNA hasn't been staying in a strong state for more than a short time. Last Feb it went from -31F in Valentine, Nebraska to 60s a few days later. Some places had a 3-day change of 100 degrees. It's not sustaining.

Actually the cold waters off of New Foundland have turned my N. Atlantic SST indicator for Winter NAO negative on the daily. Of course, it's an average of May-Sept, but Erin really did cool that -NAO area a bit.. if you want to make a correlation between ACE and following Winter NAO, like a lot of people do... It's been pretty rare lately to have that whole area from the Davis strait to N. Atlantic below average, but there has been persistent -H5 over the region this Summer. I've found that since 2012 it correlates with a following Winter ridge at 90N.