Stormchaserchuck1

In 2001, I was driving from Phoenix to San Diego. It was 111 degrees. In the middle of the trip, we hit a hail storm that must have stalled out over the same spot for 2 hours. There was 5-6" of hail on the ground. We had to pull over and wait for it to partially melt. The car temp dropped to 46 degrees in the middle of the hail storm.. it was a wild sight with cactus' completely covered in ice. That area can get a good dumping because storms don't move much.. I think the hail on the ground only covered a 1-mile radius.

October 2024 was the strongest monthly PDO on record, at -3.81. Rolled forward +15 months to 2 Winter's later, the tendency is slight -PNA, but a little bit more of a -NAO here (map is default positive, so it's the opposite) The 1-year lead PDO doesn't appear to be that impactful for 15 months later (testing the subsurface PDO theory), but there is a slight -PNA signal.

We are still in decadal -PDO. The problem with that is that the index was so extremely negative the last few years, that even if there is a rebound, the subsurface is still pretty warm in the North Pacific PDO region. We were rebounding nicely in the PDO through the late Winter and March.. Now I think it has stabilized with the NOAA PDO index still near -1, and other readings are near -0.5 (Gawx knows more about this difference). Nino 1+2 being so warm in March rolled forward to a nice +PDO composite for November, but now Nino 1+2 has dropped to negative, so I don't know that, that is still valid. I would guess it stays near neutral, or slightly negative, but the only real strong Aleutian High pressure we have had since November was Jan 15 - Feb 10. Just one example of that really. It does seem to have changed a bit in the N. Pacific compared to the last few years.

I'm surprised that you didn't jump on that 1970-now warming image, since the 1970s were one of the coldest decades

December Natural Gas contract is almost right at $5... I usually say below $5 favors +NAO, and above $5 favors -NAO.. below $3 stronger +NAO, and above $8 stronger -NAO.. So right now almost exactly neutral on NAO prediction there. March '26 Natural Gas is $4.20.. a slight +NAO lean for later in the Winter.

QBO should be negative.. March to April went from +11 to +6. When it changes phases it usually lasts at least 10 months. -QBO with El Nino favors Stratosphere warmings, but ENSO looks to be more Neutral this Winter. -QBO's with neg-Neutral ENSO have been known for cold December's then switching to warmer Jan-Feb (89-90, 05-06), but there's not enough data to say that for sure. My N. Atlantic SST method predicted +0.52 NAO last Winter (DJFM), and it ended up being +0.65. That makes it 15-5 on getting the right sign in real time since I came up with it in 2005. Also 11-9 within the estimated standard deviation of +0.54. The index runs May-Sept, so it's too early to say where it's going right now.

CPC's DJF 2025-26 Winter outlook

Storms approaching me from the south. A good bit of lightning with this one, CC branches.

Yeah, thunderstorm lines seem to max out around here. Baltimore city gets some pretty good action too.

That cell posted 80dbz again, almost right on I-95 in Cecil County.

Just missed me by 10 miles. My power did go out briefly. There are some cool dark cloud pictures of the storm from Baltimore, as it passed just north of the city.

80dbz with that cell on the Balt county/Harford county border.. probably some large hail with that.

December contract of Natural Gas is making a pretty good run the last few days.. it's getting near that $5 even mark for Winter NAO

I'm sticking with the Over/Under at 15-16 Named Storms.

-QBO and neg-Neutral ENSO has been associated with cold December's. 1989 and 2005 are examples. But there really isn't that much data to make such a conclusion, especially with something being near neutral.

-QBO next Winter! Does slightly favor -AO.. This last Winter had a record 30mb +QBO, and we had one of the strongest 10mb vortexes on record for Nov-Feb. If it peaks again during next Winter, it might favor a warmer Stratosphere. The correlation works much better with El Nino though.

My last biggest storm was 5.5" on Nov 15, 2018. Can you believe that. I also think every year has been below average since 15-16. There was a some major warming happening though around the perimeters in 14-15 and 15-16.. Dec 15 was record warm. 14-15 was record warm in the West. And last Winter had the opposite: some cold around the perimeters. Hopefully we are changing into a better pattern for the next few Winters.

Why does the PDO fluctuate more in a new climate though? Just because it happened once, and everything is getting warmer every day? It seems like you are looking at the '13-15 PDO period as strong in between strong -PDO periods, and saying "well since that happened it must be because of global warming". I don't think so. Global warming should be associated with a slowing of the pattern, leading to more stagnation, or persistent areas of high pressure. I think the windy/low pressure pattern that the Northern Hemisphere has been in since the Winter is anti-global warming (But that doesn't mean it's not going to keep warming).

DCA: +1.4 NYC: +1.6 BOS: +1.8 ORD: +2.9 ATL: +0.4 IAH: -0.6 DEN: +1.1 PHX: +0.1 SEA: +1.0

The problem with decadal cycles is that they are in such a short timeframe that you can say "Whatever X is, has to do with Y", and there's not enough data to disprove this.. I bet if the PDO was running 25 years positive, that would definitely be linked to climate change, no doubt. And that one you can probably make a stronger case for too. I don't think things like the NAO/AO/PDO are obsolete in this "new climate". For everytime the -NAO has linked up with a SE ridge, there are 3-4x more examples of warmer days happening when the NAO is positive.. Jan 26, 2024 it hit 80* in DC with the strongest +NAO for that timeframe, maybe on record (-300dm for a 5-day surrounding period). These fluctuations are still strong and constant in an overall warmer climate. I'm not going to make everything happening about a 2c global skew. Anyway, just an example: In the older climate: -NAO -0.5 correlation with temperature +NAO +0.5 correlation with temperature New climate: -NAO -0.2 correlation with temperature +NAO +0.8 correlation with temperature It's the same thing! 1.0 = 1.0. NAO remains just as impactful.

Line faded Really hoping for some better thunderstorms this year. The last few years has been nothing like when I was younger.

Line is holding together nicely so far!

Look what's showing up on radar.. hoping it will hold together later tonight https://radar.weather.gov/station/KLWX/standard

A lot of cold SSTA right now from Africa to almost the Virgin islands.. this is much different from last year. Last Spring the central-south Atlantic waters were warm where it is now cool. I think Gawx has posted the stats about the rate of cooling there.

A big reason we didn't have big snows last Winter was the La Nina subtropical jet.. this started in May 2024, just when ENSO usually starts effecting for the year.. If I had to guess, I would say last Winter acted like a Moderate east-based La Nina.