Stormchaserchuck1

Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year

SOI is not budging yet 5 Mar 2026 1010.85 1003.90 13.59 10.96 8.17 4 Mar 2026 1011.34 1003.15 19.53 11.31 7.65 3 Mar 2026 1010.85 1002.70 19.34 11.46 6.95 2 Mar 2026 1010.44 1002.95 16.18 11.70 6.42 1 Mar 2026 1011.79 1003.40 20.49 11.80 6.11 28 Feb 2026 1011.80 1003.50 17.10 11.49 5.74 27 Feb 2026 1011.02 1003.50 13.35 11.33 5.53 3 of the last 5 months have been >+10 SOI, after 31 straight months under +10 (March 2023-Sept 2025). In the 2023 Super El Nino, the SOI was near 0 monthly March and April. Only in May 2023 did it have its first solid negative period, when El Nino was already happening. Almost 32 consecutive months >0 SOI July 2020 - Feb 2023.

+1.0c popping up south of Nino 1+2 (time sensitive)

^+2c by September, which the mean Euro is predicting, has only been done twice since 1950 (1997 +2.1, and 2015 +2.2). They were the two strongest El Nino's at a later peak since 1950 (ONI). If you adjust -0.5 for the RONI, +2c by September would be the 8th strongest El Nino on record.

Pretty nice cell in eastern West Virginia. maybe some small hail.

Below average temps with above average precip! Still long ways to go, but something is at least on the radar for timeframe. Climate Prediction Center - 8 to 14 Day Outlooks

The general tendency is -H5 near the Poles, with +H5 in the mid-latitudes, but it's a pretty weak correlation (0.10-0.15) that far out. I've run several individual cities record breaking warm patterns out at different times, and that's what the constant theme is (warm mid-latitudes, -h5 near the Pole +several months time).

^For the last 3 years (23-25), RONI has been -0.533c the value of ONI month-by-month (0.0 ONI is -0.53 RONI). Staying the same.

0z GEFS look much stronger with -WPO in the medium range. I'm going to have to learn that the EPS has much better accuracy than GEFS.

Sorry to dwell on the Winter West Coast ridge again, but this really stands out to me as an extreme anomaly Most extreme West Coast DJF ridge analogs The news is, the ridge really sticks around +time in analog cases.. this is the following year: March (not included in my visual analog picks.. yet almost as strong of an anomaly!) April (+60dm over the SW, US is extreme!) May Summer (June-August) Following Winter (26-27 analog) ^75% of the N. Hemisphere is +H5 in the following Winter, which fits a warming sequence possibly associated with El Nino. The main point is just the skew warm-general +time. This is the mid-latitudes the following Winter (26-27 analog) Winter PNA DJF 25-26 was negative, so interesting that they got a #1 record warm Winter on the West coast. Monthly PNA: -1.41 2026 0.79 -0.56

0z GFS with a 80F sounding for DC March 11. NWS has it anyway Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 80. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 79

It doesn't look that impressive on the H5. Ongoing +NAO looks just as impressive. +NAO/-WPO if we get a frozen storm, it's more likely to be ice than snow.

Has there ever been a snowstorm in mid-March with a +2std NAO? I know 1993 had +nao, but don't think it was a strong as +2

All the roll-forward stuff from the Winter was suggesting March would be near normal to below in the eastern 1/3 of the US.. seems to be beating the Euro weeklies in the long range

Models have really come around to a better looking Pacific..

Yeah, but this is the 500mb pattern, super unfavorable on large scale as a sustained thing, it's taking a few days to change the surface.

Thank you donsutherland for Phoenix, AZ statistics.. this was their warmest Winter on record by a lot. The difference between 1 and 2 is almost the same as 2 and 20. Climate analog point - the pattern that follows April-June of the analogs is below, notice the -H5 up north and -PNA in the Pacific. I've seen this when DC hits a record Winter high temperature or some other US city, the Polar area gets negative anomaly, and there is more ridging at the mid-latitudes +months forward: April US Temps (+2-4 months, some progression east)

29F. I'm surprised Winter is holding on this strong, to be honest. And our last few temperature dips have coincided with precip, it's usually the other way around.

24.5" total. I was always saying Winter average here is close to 30", but it's probably 25" now.

Records just keep dropping in PHX, does it have the greatest rate of warming in the world, of major cities?

This is a little bit of a misconception. Does a Super La Nina mean brutal cold?

Just a dusting here

Analog research comparisons.... 30 analogs Base period: Analogs (Top 30) Following March of 30 analogs Following Apr-May.. maybe a strong severe wx season Following Summer (June-August) Following Sept-Nov: It doesn't show my analogs clearly, so here they are:

What's up with March for the last 6 (now 7), years?

Since I moved 30 minutes north of Baltimore in 1998, 13/28 April's have had snow (flurries or more). Unfortunately, it's 0 for the last 5 though.