Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Yeah, the Nov correlation maps are stronger over NAO area than N. Pacific. You're right. But the pattern does start in October and over enough examples might not skip a month (although Oct is further west with the pattern - you're right). -
I've already told you this, but the historical ENSO-N. Pacific trough correlation is -0.38 for Oct-Nov combined and -0.32 for Dec.
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The Nino is not impacting the N. Pacific that much. If we can get a sustained -AO period, I don't see why it can't get cool, even Dec.
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Ravens have the 2nd highest paid defense in the NFL Top 10 Most Expensive NFL Defenses in 2026 thesportscast.net Pittsburgh Steelers – $195.4 M (64.9% of cap) Baltimore Ravens – $187.4 M (62.2%) Chicago Bears – $177.9 M (59.1%) New York Giants – $174.7 M (58.0%) New England Patriots – $169.0 M (56.1%) Washington Commanders – $165.8 M (55.1%)
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3 years ago the Orioles and Ravens were both #1 seed. Maybe you're referring to the Ravens going 8-9 last year and the Orioles finishing 4 games under .500? That's not that bad dude lol. The Baltimore market for attendance, baseball and football, is a little below average over the long run. Everyone wants their team to win 75% of games, but the difference from city-to-city is so small that you can't really expect that unless you are LA or NY.
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The offense looks healthy: Zay Flowers is breaking out as one of the best WR's in the league. Lamar is still MVP material if he would run more. Henry averages 1 more ypc at the end of the season than beginning. I can't see them rebuilding when they have that. Lamar would go to a team like Miami and likely win a super bowl there lol. The O-line isn't as bad as everyone says I don't think, I haven't slowed the tape down and watched each one individually but it did seem like Lamar had time this season. The problem is Huntley can't throw beyond 5yds so they stack the line.
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Best regular season then worst in the playoffs. They really should have had an outdoor stadium lol
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The defense looks bad. So many missed tackles.
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Ravens about to be outscored 28-0 in the 2nd half at home. That's a coaching issue.
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It's not as simple as that. There's an offense and a defense. Cincy is projected -1 if the Ravens kick a FG there
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Oct/Nov 1972 had a warm Stratosphere But there are only 5 Super Nino analogs since satellite data in 1948 so it's not like you can say something that usually happens 10-15% of the time not happening is statistically relevant. It's interesting that we are diverging from the Super warm Dec - 2015
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Burrow has 0 points in the last 6 quarters against Baltimore
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I think @GaWx has done some research that it is tied into cooler mid-Winter conditions, I think -AO tendency. We had one around the same time last year, and I believe he used it to forecast a cooler Dec and Jan. I think we want November Stratosphere warmings because they correlate with -AO 30-45 days later. Something not a lot of people know though is in the DJFM mean, warm Stratosphere has direct correlation with above average temps, in the Northeast, US, and cold Stratosphere - below average temps, in the mean-Winter-total
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I posted on a Western US wx board in 2024 and 2025. One of the members there was obsessed with the CFS, kept posting from Aug-Oct several runs showing -38F departure monthly, yes -38f, in the PNW for Dec in 2024. Then it did it again in 2025, -38F! Dec 2024 and 2025. Seattle/Portland, etc. This is how it verified
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Nov-March 10mb Regression with ENSO It actually comes out to 73% chance of having above average Stratosphere vs below average in El Nino, and visa-versa That doesn't even include 23-24, which had 4 separate SWs. I haven't done research on if an early in the year event correlates with later on SSWs, but they usually do happen in bunches or not at all, because it's correlated to consistencies like QBO and ENSO. Filtering those out, it would be interesting to know what the numbers are indeed!
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Well if we have a legit Stratosphere warming, the average lag in early Nov to effect the AO the greatest is +35-40 days. That's about mid December and could certainly make these blowtorch December forecasts a little less likely.
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I went through the whole dataset back to 1948 a while ago. Big anomalies started to appear at 10mb after the turn to October. Monthly/Seasonal Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory I doubt we'll have a record event.
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I keep hearing about how it's unprecedented this early in the year. That's not true. A good number of significant Stratosphere warmings/coolings have occurred in October, historically. When researching events I used 9/30 as the starting date for the "cold season".
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Since 2012, May-Sept 60-90N SLP anomaly has flipped for the Winter almost every single time. We had a strong 90N negative anomaly this warm season. 5/5 months. I think it has something to do with the arctic ice min in 2012, but that's a strong -AO signal for the coming Winter, or at least high pressure 60-90N most of the time.
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They are easily defaulting to ENSO-climo like everyone is doing. We have yet to see a more than 4-day +PNA period since the El Nino developed in April.
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No! A major gulf of alaska low is getting a bad rap repeated into the ground by everyone because a handful of Strong Nino analogs were like that. ENSO does not significantly stretch wavelengths. What you are actually seeing there is a skewed sample, and that's because it's a small sample! I've plotted the Winter pattern 100 times, not 5, and the mean is average temps from DC to NYC, below average in Richmond. With -AO/NAO it's a solidly below average temp pattern.. as long as the -H5 doesn't extend into Alaska. A +EPO is a much different story.
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We had one around the same time last year. They've happened in October in before. I use 9/30 as the "starting date" for potential Stratosphere warming/coolings. I think there are 10 somewhat significant + events in October since 1948.
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El Nino's favor Stratosphere warmings, so I think given 100 examples the El Nino tendency is -nao, -ao. Strong -QBO in 09-10 really pushed that tendency further. West-based Nino/Strong -QBO.. yeah give me that Winter
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Of the 3 Super Nino's that were total fail, 72-73, 97-98, 23-24.. 2/3 were -PNA I think that's how we most likely fail, not with a raging low pressure in the mid-latitudes (GOA)
