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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    You keep saying the same thing over and over
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    An example of analogs working: March +NAO was top 2/900. When rolled forward to May, it is surprisingly cool, and this is the idea being adopted by CPC going forward Pre El Nino May: Nice combo of the two: warm in PNW. Cool elsewhere.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Continuing to look like the roll forward March +NAO composite.. when you have something so strong as top 2/900, it does have validity
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's the context in which you use it though: If you were saying it is biased colder because of the 3-year period after the eruption, that would make sense, but another pattern prevailed, opposite of the Pinatubo probability.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm big believer in Global SSTA's the year before, May-Nov, being a great indicator for Winter WPO. A big one is the Indian Ocean - Warm SSTAs correlate with +WPO at 0.5 (75% chance of positive) and visa-versa for cold SSTAs, relative to the global mean.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cooler start to May March 2026 was 2nd most positive NAO on record out of 900 analogs. Roll forward to May looks like a match:
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    91-92 is my favorite analog right now
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Bluewave has posted graphs of a linear warming trend in Nino 4, 1950-present. It's much more of a straight line than other ENSO regions.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think models are overdoing it -- you want the SOI to be lower, but it never got strong in 2023 so it may still be a lagging indicator, which it has been for the last 3 years.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Coming precip patterns are pre-El Nino Apr-May precip before later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino's: 6-14 day CPC forecast
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Let's see if it makes it all the way to Nino 1+2
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs. >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Matching developing El Nino's in Apr-May
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    36/18
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm not too upset about missing the HECS because it would have been gone in a few days. The Jan 25 storm sticking around for 4th longest on Baltimore record makes this Winter, imo. even though there could have been more light snow events. I think it only snowed here (flurries or more) 11 times the whole Winter. 19 last Winter, and under 10 each of the previous Winters since 2018. A light snowfall drought. Such a thing actually predicts future Winters at 0.2 correlation.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Already 38 here
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    What is this?? New Acquisition: The Los Angeles Chargers sign former Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell to a 2-year, $9.25 million contract with $5 million guaranteed. Mitchell averaged 6.3 yards per carry
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Springs are early: good We get good thunderstorms in the late Spring/Summer 9 warm months of the year The Winter sucks lol Ravens are one of the best NFL franchises
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, that's the feeling I'm getting. Models I think are crazy too because they are so used to cold ENSO. Nothing terribly impressive at this time, imo. re: the pattern, SOI and all. Subsurface is warm, but that may take a while to surface.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm kind of trepidatious of picking up our top "need" after Malaki Starks. Good WR's are hard to come by - there is a big difference between the good and bad ones. I think when you have an all star QB that can run you have to make the team about speed. At least keep the range of availble picks open, imo.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    You can't tell by personal observations, of say snow, that things are progressing in a direction?
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    We'll see. It's a strong PMM spike relative to the PDO so this is a good test year.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    85% of our months are above average these days. The question is how we are relative to that 85% number
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    The March '26 record +NAO, plus our tendency to go more -PDO relative to everything, and the Winter El Nino/+QBO combo, and NAO decadal + phase, where 20/20 months since 2011 with DJFM monthly NAO >1.11 being all positive! makes me currently lean warm as well. Really curious to see if we get a monster N. Pacific low this Winter though. If we don't get it, it means we have shifted into a different pattern vs 1980-2016, and the -PDO cycle may still be young.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    April before a Nino 3.4-based El Nino has the +PMM
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