Stormchaserchuck1

Looks like the 12z NAM has snow on the FL panhandle tomorrow, Meanwhile DC and Baltimore are rain. How do you guys like that!

NAM and Hrr were way off yesterday with the Sunday storm though.. I guess a little out of their range

Just started snowing pretty moderately here.

New 3-4 week CPC keeps us cold to mid February "Winter before an El Nino the next year" has been working out great this Winter so far. Here it is for February:

0z EPS is frigid Jan 27-29!

Individual ensemble members are all over the place in the medium range (0z). It's been really rare to have a wall of strong High pressures in the Great Lakes/southern Canada, while a high qpf low cuts into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast. Call it a decadal pattern. Let's see if we can break it!

Tapered back to flurries here. Line gaining some strength in western Va. Short term models have it intensifying about 10am.

Big time -AO on 0z GFS ensembles hr96-300. probably <-2 std. 180-192hr to me looks like big ice somewhere as there is arctic blocking/ridging, and the PV underneath of it near the Hudson Bay and SE Canada, then a ridge riding over it in the Mid-Atlantic from south-based+NAO. -AO's are our best index pattern for snow though, so it's possible it's snow north of DC/Balt in the normal climate zones and ice south.. still way far ways out.. it can go either way but with a <-2 AO less chance it's rain, imo. See if that part holds.

It started actually at a pretty good rate. Very lite dusting on things right now.

Light snow has started here!

I'm under moderate greens and still nothing here, radar looks healthy though. I'm hoping for 1"

9z RAP is a major hit for Sunday

Yeah.. I mean they are big misses

12z Hrr and NAM want nothing to do with the 2nd system

Whoa! 2-3" snow depth tomorrow between Westminster and Hagerstown on the 12z NAM

12z Hrr has a pretty good band coming through 12z-16z tomorrow. Has up to 1" snow depth near the MD/PA line.

Yeah, that and the ridge over Alaska and the Bering Strait is why there's so much strong arctic High pressure to the north. I would love for this to hold. In the last 20 years a heavy qpf storm with really strong High pressure over the great lakes or southern Canada has been really rare.

9z RAP actually has a nice little burst 11am-12pm Sat

+NAO/-WPO/-EPO's can be icy. A strong High holds in southern Canada for a parade of storms on this run of gfs.

Well here's this storm.. we have a 1030mb High over the Great Lakes. +NAO is bringing the jet stream a little north though

6z GFS is a little bit of a hit.

Man does this cold air intrusion look good.. let's see if following waves down the line make it to snow.

+0.5 correlation is one side more than another, so 75/100 overall. 0.0 correlation is 50/100. I'm talking about % chance of an outcome. That makes +0.25 correlation 62.5/100 overall. -0.5 correlation would be 25/100. I use the CDC linear correlation maps as a base, and they use all data, positive and negative, 1948-2020.

Believe it or not though, the 3 lowest PDO's on record for the preceding Summer or Fall were all cold following Dec-Jan's in the Northeast (1955-6, 2024-5, 2025-6).

It's kind of hard to explain the 1980s cold phase otherwise. We have seen, on record, 5 swings between positive and negative, each spanning about the same amount of time. I think recent +AMO in comparison to global SSTA does look about even though. In 2023 and 2024 the Atlantic was warmest on record, and that fit a typical std a the peak of an AMO cycle. Would I say that the 2030s and 2040s will probably be -AMO, or cold Atlantic SSTA? lol, probably not. But I do think it could come down to near average for a few decades, or at least stop breaking records. That's one thing I honestly have to read more up on.