Stormchaserchuck1

@brooklynwx99 Has 500mb maps of days leading up to NYC 18"+ snowstorms.. it has a real strong Aleutian ridge (I think near +150dm) a few days before.. along with a -NAO.

Dolphins are the worst. Why did they sign Tua to $55 mill/yr? I think Lamar is like the 10th highest paid QB now. If you have a lot of money, NFL is something that is really going up in value a lot over the next few decades.

Welcome! When we get coastals, Fallston does really well. I think we had close to 36" in Jan 2016. I also measured 125" in my backyard in the Winter of 02-03.

Welcome neighbor! We do much better for snow here, every mile makes a big difference. You're also kind of in a nice thunderstorm spot. Baltimore to just south of me is a zone that gets hit whenever we are risk. Edit: nevermind, you already live here. Whatever.

Usually ENSO related December isn't a big month for PNA Correlation really gets higher in Jan-Feb.. You know how we're following it so far..

I am a little worried about Jan and Feb in the 1989-90 and 2005-06 analogs. I do think there will be more -AO in Jan/Feb so we'll see how that goes.

You think? Long range models are showing more +PNA at the Day-15+ range. It's looking like a -WPO/-EPO wants to develop with a little +PNA under it. I don't see any signs of RNA on current long range models for late November, although I don't know if the Euro weeklies show that in Dec (It looks pretty neutral in the N. Pacific with the cold coming from west-based -NAO).

Natural Gas December contract is up 25% in the last 3.5 weeks.. from $3.63 on 10/19 to $4.54 now.. It's moving because of the prospect for a cooler December. I've been saying if you know this stuff is coming, you can make money. It's not as factored in as you'd think. NG January: $4.75 NG February: $4.42 NG March: $3.95 I usually use $5.00 as the "even" mark.. under is warmer than average probability, over is colder than average, although there are a lot of factors that are included.. it's not 100% weather related. Also is more correlated to the NAO than the Pacific, since Europe is a big part of the market.

Allan Huffman is a good Met. He used to post here all the time. If I put out a Winter forecast, it would look like that, except I would switch December and January.

Monster -WPO by the end of the 12z GEFS, last few days of November. Matching strong -QBO/negative ENSO years like 1989 and 2005 (although probably not as extreme). Remember I was saying I was curious if the strong -QBO/weak negative ENSO connection would make us really cold late Nov into the 1st half of December, like the coincidence that's happened over and over again (I say coincidence because the QBO is a Stratosphere index). It's looking more likely!

The problem with Stratosphere warming is that they are common. The whole Stratosphere moves in one direction: stronger or weaker. 1/2 of the time it's warmer. 1/2 the time it's colder. Because of fluctuations, there are on average 1-2 top 30 percentile Stratosphere warmings per Winter. This one coming up doesn't look record breaking strong, it's looks pretty average as a SSW, actually. It would be weird to go to March without seeing one. Still, there is a lagged -NAO correlation that has a pretty high correlation coefficient. But at the current strength that is being modeled it's not a "change the whole Winter scenario".

^Ok, I've plotted Tropical OLR and found that subsurface temperature anomalies near the thermocline (associated with sea level height) are actually more impactful. You see the correlation increase to almost double and the same goes for vs 850mb wind, 250mb wind, sea-level pressure. Matching Tropical Pacific OLR though, which is "Weak La Nina-like" right now, comes out to a -NAO in Nov and Dec then switches to +NAO for Jan and Feb. Curious how he got -NAO for Jan and Feb.

Can you elaborate on what you mean? Bust warm or bust cold? What's going on in 11-12 in the NE Pacific?

Since 2012 there has been a really strong correlation between Summer SLP, and negative SLP anomaly 60-90N and the following Winter having a ridge at 90N. It has worked almost every single time, almost a 0.70, or 85% correlation. Doesn't work as well before 2012, but we had that pattern strongly this year so it's no surprise so many seasonal models are popping a Winter anomaly ridge at 90N.

What's a 100-day Lowpass Constructed Analog?

I would say that 15-16 one was -AO. It actually doesn't help us much when the mean ridge is at 90N.. that puts a mean trough at 45N.. there was some ridging that extended down the Davis Strait though. Since 2013, 19/19 Winter months with NAO value >1.12 have all been positive (CPC)! 83% of the Winter months have had +NAO since 11-12, and we only had 1 average negative NAO Winter in that time.. which was 20-21, but that only came out to -0.12/month. but that was our lowest NAO Winter since 10-11. We've had NAO blocks during that time, but they usually don't last more than 10-15 days.

Surprise thunderstorm here

I think Seattle signed him for $33 mill/yr. I understand wanting to go with the younger player, but McCarthy is averaging something like 5.5 yds/attempt this year, 53% completion percentage, and 6 INTs/5 TDs.

^Such is consistent with strong -QBO Last year we had strong +QBO, and Nov-Feb had one of the stronger 10mb PV's on record. 2 years ago in strong -QBO, we had 4 Stratosphere warming events.

I can't believe you guys got rid of Sam Darnold. He's having a MVP season with Seattle. The thought is that JJ McCarthy would be really good if they did something like that, but his stats so far are really not impressive at all. If it weren't for the 3 turnovers though, I'm not sure the Ravens would have won it. Lamar also had like 4 passes that could have been intercepted, which is rare for him. He seemed a little off his game today.

With long range models trying to build a -EPO at Day-15, the Euro weeklies continue the theme forward and build the cold the first 2 weeks of December.. It looks like a -NAO over the top. Today's Euro weeklies for Dec 1-8 Dec 8-15

If this verifies, we could be looking at our first winter storm threat around or after Thanksgiving. Maybe more 40N-north. 18z GFS ensemble mean at 384hr also had a pretty strong -EPO developing. Basically, the NAO is negative for the next 15 days, then the block retrogrades to NE Canada, just when the Pacific changes to more -epo/+pna around Nov 24-25 and after. That actually creates a window for a trough to track across the US, under the -NAO ridge in NE Canada, giving us a chance for a storm to hit colder air after Thanksgiving. The H5 in the map below is good, but we probably need a few days to flush out the old slightly warmer pattern. Still a long way to go, but it's looking good for at least below average temps beyond Day-15, based on current long range models. That cross polar ridge, with a GOA trough and 50/50 trough (although both are weak) is what you want to see -- especially good ridging over Alaska. It's a winterystorm pattern, although early in the year.

Yeah, it was a private school. I used to do weather forecasts at chapel everyday.

Jan 25, 2000 is very underrated. Literally that morning, the forecast was for partly sunny with a chance of a flurry and later that day 20" fell here. My school principal used to call me for weather updates when they would consider closing the school or not. I was watching the radar at 6:30am that day, watching a huge area of precip moving NW from the ocean, and I told them, "close the schools, I think we are getting 6-12". A few hours later when it started snowing everything went 12"+.

30-day is the highest since December 2022! It had actually gone 31 straight months without passing +10, now it's up to +15. Between that, the Oct-Nov N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern, and now a -3c pocket developing in the ENSO subsurface.. you can make a case for a La Nina presence this Winter. I'm curious to see how it goes with the fact that 21 of the last 29 months have been +PNA (CPC), and what happens there going forward.