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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not really seeing much of a N. Pacific low or negative anomaly in the NPH area (-NOI) thus far.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    384hr on the mean has a respectable ridge
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ok, I was just basing it on the SOI. I'm sure those reconstructed events aren't too far off though. Still a point though, that the opposite of Strong La Nina's is not matching Strong El Nino's.. relatively small number of samples. they are both anomalies of the same thing so should reverse each other. I think filter out the NAO and extreme-east based events and Strong Nino's aren't as warm in the East in the Winter as people think.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Yeah, we now have >+6c on TAO/Triton below Nino 1+2, which is the highest of the event so far This is as the 1st Kelvin wave is far east though.. I don't know that the mean doesn't happen further west. I'm thinking basin-wide like 15-16. (I guess technically it's the 2nd Kelvin wave as the first one happened mid-Winter.)
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    6z GEFS in the long range is also building a ridge. This has been on the model for the last 4-5 runs now, for the last week of May
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Negative H5 dropping into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, progressing east, is our best Summer pattern for storms
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z EPS is quite warm around May 17-18 then above average for the 2nd half of the month
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    That CFS model runs 4x a day. To only find slightly below average temps in that is not a big accomplishment lol
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not even in Weak Nino threshold in almost mid May.. RONI has some ground to cover if this is going to be Super 57-58, +2.0 peak was +1.1 in May 65-66, +2.0 peak was +0.6 in May 72-73, +2.3 peak was +0.9 in May 82-83, +2.5 peak was +0.8 in May 91-92, +2.3 peak was +0.5 in May *closest analog 97-98, +2.4 peak was +1.0 in May 15-16, +2.4 peak was +0.8 in May
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    The 1895-1950 composite has some very warm Strong Nina Winter's. Since the dataset is somewhat small, flip that signal around for Strong Nino's unless it is based way more east... Here on the EC you don't call Strong La Nina's and Strong El Nino's both warm, if they are both based in Nino 3.4. People fall in the trap of looking solely at analogs, and imo this El Nino is developing a bit different (forcing west) vs previous Super Nino's.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just don't know how reliable ENSO SST data from before 1948 is.. I know we kept a meticulous record of SOI though. Point is, I think this one is developing with ENSO forcing further west than the classic Strong Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, so the corresponding pattern in the N. Pacific may be different - instead of so much NPH impact, there may be some movement of the PNA. It seems easy to call the temp composite warm because 6/6 Strong Nino's are, but besides the 80-85% chance that we have of having a +departure every month these days, I'm not so sure there is a warm signal in the mean for the East coast, US for the Winter, besides the +NAO probability (decadally and +2 years after Solar Max).
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    You might be surprised what a Super El Nino can produce pattern wise in the Winter,, an event that isn't totally east-based allows the GOA low/+EPO to disconnect a bit. A lot of warm bias from limited examples. I think there are some really cold Strong Nino's in the 1895-1948 dataset, or at least very warm Strong Nina's (counter-examples) Here's one.. strong -SOI in the Winter of 1911-12 Another strong -SOI Winter
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    A little dip the past 2 days +1.4 over the past 3 months though puts us at +2.0 by mid August if the trend holds consistent
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Can't we just accept it's warming ~0.1F a year and move on? The physics of meteorology is far more interesting. I responded to bluewave because it sounded like he was thinking the general warming would be a dominant-pattern causing thing. There is more high pressure with global warming, but there is still a lot of year to year variance. In 2025 we had more low pressure centers. In late August 2025, we actually set the record for lowest 500mb on record for the month for the Northern Hemisphere, and there were these cold 500mb anomalies setting up May-Sept 2024 too. I'm curious to see if this warm season has a relative spike of cold H5 like the last 2 years, or if that doesn't occur this year.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Right, I'm just running all the data (73 years +events) and showing that in the data there isn't really a difference.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not much of a May PMM difference between Nino 4, 3.4 and 1.2 based later-in-the-year El Nino's. If anything it's probably strongest for Nino 4
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Again, +2 years after a Solar Max correlates with El Nino at 0.2 (57%). Here is the Winter composite +2 years after Solar Max There were/are 3 things going for El Nino this year: 1. We had 5/6 La Nina years (RONI). History says ENSO balances that out in the next 1-3 years, 2:1 El Nino vs La Nina tendency. 2. We had a Strong El Nino 3 years ago (23-24). History says that there is a "2nd wave", as similar event happens vs dissimilar 2:1, 3-5 years after Strong ENSO event. 3. Solar Max +2 years is a pretty strong El Nino composite:
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Phase shift.. it will be interesting to see if the N. pacific low responds. So far there are no signs of it on long range ensembles, even though ENSO usually correlates with it pretty strongly in the NPH area in May
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's pretty close to average throughout the year - slight uptick in Nov and Dec to above avg. Nov-Feb of strongest El Nino's:
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    0.15 correlation, if average is 4.00", that's 4.60"
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    1.5-2" of rain for half the month isn't bad.. it's about average. pre-El Nino May's are nothing significant in the MA
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    For 1 month. December, Feb, March, and April were all -PNA You believe global warming is a main driver of dominant patterns? I think we have more of a background -ENSO/-PDO state so it may not be like some of the classic Strong Nino's but I don't see the relevance in "new global temperature 3 years apart" aside from general warming.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Don't forget 2023, the last Strong El Nino, had 20 named storms, which is tied for 4th highest all time. PDO was negative in 2023. We haven't had a single +PDO month in the 2020s
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    +9F was kind of a weak scale anyway
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    MEI vs Nino 3.4
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