Stormchaserchuck1

I see what you're saying.. for some reason I thought Nino was more +PDO-like, with a ridge overtop the N. pacific trough. I think in the 1895-1950 dataset they are a little more neutral or negative EPO/WPO

Winter 23-24 did act like a Super Nino in terms of precip. although November was dry

The PDO is a 50/50 index, half warm vs half cold or visa-versa.

The 23-24 Winter warmth was not all because of Strong El Nino. It's like saying 01-02 and 97-98 match if you compare US Temp maps. There were different patterns leading to the same localized outcome. The N. Pacific is the main region effected by ENSO, and the N. Pacific pattern was relatively weak in 23-24. That's why the RONI worked better than ONI that year. That's why the RONI is being used. The +WPO was a main driver of 23-24, it just matched corresponding US El Nino temp patterns, but not necessarily because of the same reasons (unless you can explain why +wpo is el nino - I think it's more of a -PDO/cold ENSO pattern) - The N. pacific high was not that effected in 23-24.

A lot of the warmth in 23-24 Winter was from +WPO. A little harder to connect that to ENSO. Beyond that, are you saying that El Nino has an anomaly relative to global warming, or it's just global warming points - everything is warming everywhere? Does the same work in reverse for La Ninas?

Gawx has pointed out that March 2026 will likely be the most +NAO month of March since 1950. Surprisingly, rolled forward to April and May is not a warm composite April May March to May

Big time warm water is getting going in the western-subsurface. Could help to push the Nino a little further west if it stays under Nino 3.4 and surfaces Nino 4 is warming

Yes, correct. Neutral/-QBO would be higher than nina/-qbo and Neutral/+QBO would be lower than nino/+qbo.

The last 4 years, Stratosphere has been a huge hit with favored QBO state Nov-Feb. +QBO -QBO It doesn't automatically translate to AO state, although this Nov's SSW did precede more -AO conditions early to mid Winter. The last 2 March Stratosphere warmings have not lead to -NAO conditions +time. Typically Stratosphere warmings have a lag, and coolings correlate at 0-day

0z EPS continues to be very warm April 1-8

^I saw someone post this a few days ago.. one of the coldest March's on record for Fairbanks, AK Alaska has been having one of its coldest Winters on record without actually much negative 500mb anomaly

US March 2026 temperature ranking vs historical should be interesting

91-92 was probably the 2nd strongest that was basin-wide or more west-based. RONI was +2.3 for 91-92.

23-24 didn't have super negative anomalies in the Pacific like other Strong Nino's, but ENSO mainly effects the North Pacific High 23-24 cold season did have a NPH negative anomaly, which is El Nino. I see why RONI was +1.5, as the total N. Pacific pattern wasn't very influenced by ENSO seemingly:

Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based.

Most of the time the NAO doesn't correlate high on the west coast. March is an exception.

Yes.. +0.5 is really strong correlation

It's hitting Flagstaff the hardest. Their previous highest temp ever recorded in March was 73. They are in the 80s for it looks like 4 days. No UHI cause for this SW warm up.

Yeah not really any basis for the way the last 4-5 months have gone out there. One of the bigger record breaks on record.

0z EPS is really warm the 1st week of April. Like 70s to near 80

They were too warm the past 2 Winters in the east - but not before that. The past 10 Winters they actually have a slight cold bias in the east. Seasonal models played -PDO and PNA persistency, popping a SE ridge for the Winter, however if you extended these DJF forecasts the last 2 Winters to March, there is not as much colder than forecast verification. Despite what many believe, La Nina is actually not warmer in the NE. A west-based La nina may be, but La Nina's usually have cold Decembers and their main effect is on the north pacific high pressure (NPH), which is net neutral temps in the NE in the cold season. La Nina's and Strong El Nino's aren't both warm..

Yeah they are off with their conservative anomalies compared to the 91-20 average. It should realistically be +1F everywhere. To make that dark red is kind of weird, if you judge this last Winter's forecast on their temp anomalies, it was a huge bust in the Mountain west. They aren't in tune with where we are as a whole compared to the 91-20 average.

Just continues and continues

I'm not convinced that the Pacific circulation goes so far into El Nino. SOI this March is way higher than all other Moderate+ El Nino's (later in the year) on record (since 1950). This is March SOI rolled into the max ENSO time of year.. this is a +NPH-feedback pattern in the Hadley Cell, and slight cooling on the equator. April SOI, however, makes a much bigger difference:

The warmest March on record for the CONUS, 2012, is going to be broken by quite a lot this March. Here is how Apr-May 2012 evolved: