Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall? -
PNA has been negative 6 straight months, and Aug looks to come in around 0.0. I wouldn't assume classic El Nino N. Pacific pattern this Winter. I researched it once and Weak ENSO had 40dm, Mod ENSO 70dm, Strong ENSO 100dm, Super ENSO 120dm. I think we are ~40dm this Winter.
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^IRI mean near +1.0c for AMJ is pretty interesting The average El Nino >+0.5 ONI for the first AMJ averaged out to be +0.18 the following AMJ (16 analogs). (This last AMJ was +0.9)
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It runs 4 times a day, 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. So when you post last 12 runs, you are only posting 3-days. Like I said I was somewhat following it the last 2 years and they had 1 run of -38F for the month of Dec in the NW, US both 2024 and 2025. Here's what happened lol (n
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Not to mention the record -PNA streak we had going 18-25 Feb-March until last year I mean Feb has been bad but look at March compared to the 91-20 average over the last 7 years Last March had a +2.92 NAO, the 2nd highest in all monthly records for all months of the year since 1948. At least we can say it's been because of bad oscillations, not everything neutral and some unknown reason.
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Here is the NAO streak we have going in February 2014 1.342015 1.322016 1.582017 1.002018 1.582019 0.292020 1.262021 0.142022 1.682023 0.922024 1.092025 1.602026 0.68 Will this year be a -1.5? It could be, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.
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CFS sucks as a model bro. Why would we have strong Winter -NAO when we haven't had it in 14 years, we have +QBO, and Descending Solar (favors +nao 1-5 years after Max)? I mean I could be wrong of course but I remember last 2 years the CFS was consistently showing like -20F monthly anomalies in the NW, US for the Winter and they ended up being solidly above average lol
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October NAO is interestingly inverse to the Winter (DJFM)! It's the only month of the year that has an opposite correlation. October is also the highest month of PDO correlation to US pattern. The Pacific 500mb in October is a big indicator to see which is winning the battle - El Nino vs -PDO! Of course we've had 6 straight months of -PNA, and Aug is looking to come in around 0.0. I mean, if that continues it will be interesting to see what actually happens in the Winter (basic Nino pattern is not a given).
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3rd straight day of <-30 SOI 22 Aug 2026 1013.39 1016.75 -30.23 -19.36 -22.39 21 Aug 2026 1013.48 1017.25 -32.71 -18.78 -22.41 20 Aug 2026 1013.20 1017.40 -35.32 -17.97 -22.25
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I don't think -PNA is an El Nino pattern. You are getting randomness because September is the weakest month of the year for ENSO correlation across the Pacific-North America region
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My area has been extremely wet. I think in the eastern 40% of US it has matched the trend Everyone is saying it's because of El Nino, I think it's a 10-year thing happening. The Fall will be a better indicator of how wet the Nino STJ is.
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It certainly feels like Fall the past 2 days. 60s in the evening both times. It seems like since 2024 every Summer has been hot in the beginning then cool at the end. Another -400dm low over the Arctic today. Again, every May-Sept has had that pattern 60-90N: 2024, 2025, 2026. July-Aug the wettest months of the year again, matching the 2017-2025 pattern.
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I think a lot of attention is paid to the Pacific when ENSO may actually effect N. America directly If you look at the cold season correlation with Nino 1+2 there is actually a slightly higher max in N. America, north of the Great Lakes, than the NPH area in the N. Pacific It will be interesting to see what happens this Winter in this regard as the PDO/overall 500mb state of the Pacific is so different from El Nino atm.
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You know as well as I do that their forecasts underperform. I think they use mostly models, and you can actually utilize other methods (PDO, AMO, Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs, Summer arctic 500mb), to do better. As least that's how it's verified in the last 15 years. Keep in mind though that they did do really well in 15-16 and 23-24. Two of their best forecasts. but yeah, the possible fluctuation is pretty big. 18-19 was stock ENSO for a weaker Nino and it verified opposite. They had near average last Winter in the Rockies and some places were +10F for DJFM.
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Another arctic low at -400dm today. <5100dm! Since the Solar Max peak we have been getting this a lot May-Sept (24-26). A lot of the "patterns" seem consistent actually - warm start to Summer locally then near average or cooler ending. July-Aug being wettest months locally.
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New CPC temp outlook for JFM, kind of surprising it's based with mean ridge over NE more than NW Matches Nino 1+2 JFM composite
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Todays new CPC seasonal forecast has actually gone quite a bit warmer in the Northeast
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Yeah, something interesting is the CPC NAO index has run significantly higher in the wintertime than what the 500mb composite has looked like. We've had all but 1 +NAO Winters since 10-11. And that one was -0.21.
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What are you basing this on? Seasonal models had a mean trough for the EC, cold DJF anomaly in the seasonal mean in 23-24.. and it was pretty well above average. 18-19 a Weak Nino was looking good in the Fall then ended up being very -PNA I would argue that only the last 2 Winters underperformed, because we had below average temps DJF for the first time. There was a ridiculous -PNA pattern 2018-2024 that has nothing to do with luck. It was more of a base-La Nina ENSO state combined with very strong -PDO. I'm trying not to get lost in the PDO but it has been a good indicator!
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-SOI picking up again the last 2 days 20 Aug 2026 1013.20 1017.40 -35.32 -17.97 -22.25 19 Aug 2026 1013.80 1016.85 -28.34 -17.37 -22.07 And 7 straight days of -17 or lower.
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Again, the most positive 7-year ENSO time in history (since 1948) followed the only other time we had 5/6 La Nina years (1970-1976) (ONI) 70-71: Moderate La Nina 71-72: Weak La Nina 72-73: Strong El Nino 73-74: Strong La Nina 74-75: Weak La Nina 75-76: Strong La Nina Only other period on record to have 5/6 La Nina's, until 2020-2026 (RONI):20-21: Moderate La Nina21-22: Moderate La Nina22-23: Moderate La Nina23-24: Moderate El Nino24-25: Moderate La Nina25-26: Weak La NinaENSO tends to even out, historically. Here is what followed the 70-76 streak:76-77: Moderate El Nino77-78: Moderate El Nino78-79: Neutral79-80: Weak El Nino80-81: Neutral81-82: Neutral82-83: Super El Nino (07-12 was 4/5 La Nina's, then didn't see another one for 4 years, and 3 years later 15-16 was Super El Nino.86-95 was 4 El Nino's vs 1 La Nina, and was followed by 4/6 La Nina's.95-01 was 4 La Nina's vs 1 El Nino, and flipped to 2 El Nino, 2 Neutral, 0 La Nina's for 4 years, and the 97-98 Super El Nino was in there.*The 76-83 4 El Nino vs 0 La Nina was followed by only 2 El Nino's in the following 8 years in +PDO, and the Strongest La Nina on record (88-89) occurred in that period.)
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Everyone is saying shutout or HECS. I don't think the Winter will be like that. I can say pretty confidently that we will have snow periods, but maybe 3-12" type events. I don't see us blowing up a GOA low and -NAO, which are hecs patterns. We'll see.
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In a lot of months PDO has higher correlation than ENSO actually. In some months it actually has a higher correlation than PNA! Common sense says that PDO is more secondary, but a 7-year stretch where PHL had 10.7" of snow beating their previous 7-year low over 13.5" during the most -pdo time in history.. interesting coincidence? We were tracking the PDO before that. Last 2 winters we had good cold but I think cold Arctic Summers were a reason for that (which we have again this year).
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Even more impressive is +10c spanning almost 2,500 miles. And steady over long periods of time. It would take quite a bit of energy to produce that unnaturally.
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2 cold Winter's in the Northeast followed by an El Nino looks like this precip wise (10 analogs is a pretty good amount) Now keep in mind that includes Weak Nino's and we are going to have the strongest on record by 15%, so maybe it's still really hard to get a dry Winter but I thought the analog composite was interesting (since we know how the dry pattern has been present for the past 2 years, minus wet July and Aug which has been the decadal trend 2017-2026).
