Stormchaserchuck1

They use the last month as the year. So Dec-Jan 2001 would be 00-01. US Climate division data uses the year for the first month, and those monthly climate maps use the last month.

This pattern for the end of October doesn't look bad, with +PNA and west-based -NAO developing.

This pattern for the end of October doesn't look bad, with +PNA and west-based -NAO developing. This year has been nothing like 2020-2023 where there was strong -PNA all the time. -PNA periods have been in short periods, and sometimes transition to neutral, or in this case a potential +pna

Our most recent good Winters Classic 3-wave cold N. Hemispheric pattern (vs 1 warm-AO) setting up in the Fall.

360hr 12z EPS.. this is not what you want to see in the Pacific/Alaska, but these correlations are like 54-55% going into the Winter, If anything it I think it just cancels out the wall-to-wall blowout good Winters like 02-03, but doesn't do so much for the Winters in between.

That's really about as close of a match as you ever are going to get, the only place in the world that was really different was south of South America.. I think after the Solar Flares in May 2024, the Earth went into a pattern. A lot of this is described as +AO, but that pattern continues now going into the cold season I think. The 4-corners High pressure wasn't as strong this Summer as last, and that did show tendency to become +PNA last Winter, so maybe not so much +PNA this Winter, but 24-25 is a good analog going forward.

I personally think a cold October is better for a cold/wet Winter, just by common sense. I kept a weather journal starting in Sept 2002, and I was surprised looking back at it that it snowed 4 times in October 2002. The data though, going back to 1948, Oct -EPO/+PNA is good for snow at about a +0.2 correlation, and +EPO/-PNA is bad for snow at a -0.2 correlation. The Atlantic has an opposite correlation though (-NAO Oct usually begets +NAO Winter, and +NAO Oct usually begets -NAO Winter), so that's where the confusion comes from.. but I bet over 200 years, not 76 years, there would be no inverse NAO correlation.

^Pretty strong on us getting to Weak El Nino by April-May next year. If you count last year as Weak Nina, this is going to be 5/6 consecutive La Nina years, and 7/10 consecutive La Nina years! Data going back to 1948 shows that such a strong streak is likely the reverse in the next 2-3 years.

10mb events are usually uniform.. you'll usually get a smooth + or - mean. That's a pretty good one though, I know in the N. Hemisphere the monthly mean never really exceeds +1800m (and that one's +1100) I will have to go through and manually make 10mb analogs.. I was incorrect in saying it's AAO. AAO is actually a 500mb anomaly, not 10mb. There isn't a known index that calculates S. Hemisphere monthly 10mb anomaly... so the roll forwards indicating "random" is not really a correct response to anomalous 10mb September.

Where is Garner Minshew when you need him?

The issue is that Lamar might not want to resign after the next 2 years of his contract are up.. unless they fix things big time. I never got Ray Lewis vibes from Lamar Jackson about playing for the Ravens.

Yeah, if he's saying the defense is better than last year that's really out of touch. He must be riding the injuries and a tough schedule. You don't give up nearly 50 points to a 1-3 team at home. This is after KC scored the most offensive points in 3 years the week before, and etc. etc. It's like, really bad.

^You can do actual AAO correlations over the whole dataset, of 73 years, both signs included. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/ Lead time (months): Let the index lead, Lag time (months): Let the pattern precede an AAO phase. Just going with January following a Sept AAO, this looks pretty "random"

September 2025 came in as the 7th consecutive +AO month. The odds of having 7-consecutive months of either direction are 1/64.. so once in 5 years. It shows that we are in a decadal +AO phase, which I believe really took a step up after the Solar Flares in May 2024. However, since 2012, the Summer AO sign as been flipping for the Winter in most cases, favoring a ridge at 90N. I wouldn't be surprised to see this 90N ridge again this Winter, but the Polar/Mid-latitude Cell puts a corresponding trough at 45N (not 40N), which may be further north than you might expect for -AO.

Yes, there is a slight opposite correlation between Oct NAO and the Winter NAO. I personally think the Pacific pattern in October is the more important one, and we generally want -EPO/+PNA, which this year is opposite... not a huge overall correlation, but noteable.

Models are pretty strong on a -NAO for the 2nd half of October. October is actually the only month of the year that has an inverse correlation to the following Winter (DJFM) NAO state. Its correlation is -0.07, when all other months of the year it is >0.0 [CPC NAO monthly]. Over 200 years I'm not sure the correlation holds, but the last few decades are filled with lots of examples of the Oct NAO state flipping for the Winter.

If there is a Stratosphere warming mid-January, it will typically effect the NAO in the 1st half of February. It will be interesting to see how strong -QBO this year ties in with the cold season Stratosphere. It was record cold 10mb last Nov-Feb with strong +QBO.

I think there will be some cold shots, but it won't be sustained, and will usually happen behind storms, and not in front of them. I don't see a super warm Winter though.

Gawx posted, here is the updated PDO.. it has risen sharply since record July, but looks to be stabilizing right now 2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03 2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.66 -2.62 -4.15 -3.18 -2.38

Over a larger dataset (CDC correlation maps go back to 1948, and have 73 total years, both + and - signs with amplitude included in the total number), the correlation is pretty strong. Especially October to February. You are right that it hasn't been great the last few years. I was thinking that October 2018, which had a -EPO, I was pretty excited about that Winter in the Fall and it ended up being a bad one. I think if you include the PNA, the recent numbers have a little more weight.. we are going strong -PNA this October. Call a -PNA/+EPO the same thing and you have a pretty strong roll forward. I think it's tied to the PDO and that correlation.

Actually it would mean +EPO October would beget +EPO Jan-Feb. The map is showing -EPO as the default state, but the correlation has both signs considered. We needed a +PNA/-EPO October, like 2002. The Pacific H5 has >+0.2 correlation, or 60% chance to roll forward to the Winter, which is more than usual.

Big time +EPO this October.. models are showing it for the 2nd half of the month. EPO carries very well from October to January-February

Big time +EPO this October.. models are showing it for the 2nd half of the month. EPO carries the same sign very well from October to January-February

Oops.. 1 hour late DCA: +3.2 NYC: +3.5 BOS: +3.5 ORD: +5.7 ATL: +2.9 IAH: +2.5 DEN: +0.5 PHX: +0.2 SEA: 0.0