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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Daily ONI is already passing +1.0c in Nino 3.4 and subsurface is warmest ever only below 1997, normal 65F areas on the thermocline are 80F right now. It's going to at least go Strong. SOI is the biggest counter-indicator.. it hasn't had more than a few very negative days.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Even in 23-24 the SOI didn't go very negative... it's been following the PDO in the 2020s where it's leaning positive most of the time Only 16 months of -SOI since July 2020. 77% +SOI during that time Everyone was saying early in the year where we can't have a Strong Nino so close to the last Strong Nino since ENSO is at least partially about balance. Check out this RONI streak.. we are evening this out, imo
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah let's see if the STJ juices up this year with cold ENSO background state probably still in effect. 23-24 Winter was very wet but Nov 2023 was extremely dry
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah -- it was pretty close to a uniform La Nina pattern last Winter in the US. Combine that with pre-El Nino conditions for the year after, and you have about a perfect composite.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I didn't realize it was such a strong La Nina STJ pattern
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe I'm missing something but we still don't have H5 monthlies?
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Donsutherland taking us to town
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    May usually has a pretty strong pattern correlation in El Nino
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's the whole NAO dataset. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table March 2020 being +1.01 = x+1.01 weight March 2023 being -1.11 = x-1.11 weight March 2025 being +0.20 = x0.20 weight It's like that for the whole thing 1948-2020. That's why I like the tool.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Again, since the extreme March 2026 +NAO is leading the May pattern very well, here it is rolled forward to the following Winter: 1B — Postimages
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a little more of a -EPO than WPO. Same with CANSIPS
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty good lagged time correlation between a Solar Max and ENSO cycle (El Nino after Solar max, La Nina after Solar min) 0-time is very slight correlation +1year is stronger +2years is stronger! ^Not a bad correlating map between ENSO and the Solar Cycle there, 73 years of data
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like NOAA adjusted October 2024 and July 2025's PDO numbers down slightly. I believe Oct 24 was -3.85, now it's -3.24, and I think July 2025 was <-4, now it's -3.83 March 2026 has been adjusted from -1.44 to -1.2
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC is disregarding it completely, but their seasonals have not been better than C+/B- grade as you and I have assessed, over the last 15 years.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    My understanding of the PDO is that it's a 50/50 index. They have it as one area vs another area. Unless AGW is targeting an area specifically - which it is probably not on that scale, it still holds value as you could just as likely see the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast of America have warm water as Japan has seen in recent years. In the 2014-2016 +PDO blip, those other areas did become record warm.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks for the reminder! May DCA: -0.7 NYC: -0.6 BOS: -0.6 ORD: -1.8 ATL: -0.1 IAH: +0.5 DEN: +3.1 PHX: +2.4 SEA: +3.6
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    They must calculate in different areas.. Dec 2025 had a >+300dm anomaly which is extreme, only rivaling years like Dec 2021 so the exact coordinates of calculation makes a big difference in the reading since the ridge/block was "on the edge".
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    23-24 wasn't always connecting with 50mb as there was some disconnect between the upper and lower atmosphere but the mean for the Winter was pretty warm at 10mb Nov didn't have the warming like 2025
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    January 2024 had a -NAO and some cold. The -NAO kept linking up with SE ridge 2018- March 2023, then in Jan 2024 it started to occur with more of an East coast trough, and the same -NAO/EC trough pattern has happened 24-25 and 25-26.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually recently Stratosphere warmings have been the anti-thesis: 23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings and a warm 10mb for the Winter and was the warmest winter on record for CONUS. March 2026 had a Stratosphere warming in the first half of the month, and that was the most extreme warm air temp anomaly month ever recorded for CONUS. The Nov 2025 Stratosphere warming preceding cold is actually the counter trend to what we've seen in the last 3 years, although I know Gawx posted some interesting things when it happened like 9/9 following January's are colder than average. Cold Winter Stratosphere's have correlated with more +AO's in the last 5-6 years, so that part is working.. but March 2025 and March 2026 did not have SSW impacts at all on the NAO.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually I can see it after going over the maps.. the slight + reading was correct because of further SW
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    No way December was +WPO
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. They don't always mean cold - actually the composite mean of top 20 warm 10mb Winters (Nov-March) is above average temps in the Northeast, US. Biggest pattern is shorter term lagged -NAO with peaks, which can occur +months early in the cold season to +weeks mid/later in the cold season.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it was May 8 2003. What a Winter! Started snowing in October 2002 4x. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, it was either May 2 2002, or May 8 2002. It did snow one year on May 8 though.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll take that the Nov Stratosphere warming effected in 60+ days, but not the March one effecting late April NAO. March is typically +15 days, while Nov can be +40-45 days as a mean (but can range from +15-65 days).
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