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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    80F sounding on 18z GFS
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    They were saying it was MJO related, but MJO is so tropospheric vs the Polar Stratosphere.. I think larger things are more correlating both is the argument. The anti-correlation is pretty strong though, -0.25 over the N. Pole is 62.5% chance at favoring cold ENSO vs warm ENSO, but that's probably because of not enough examples. It was actually pointed out last March that SSW would jump start El Nino, but the anti-correlation worked last March, as we had cold ENSO later this year.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't worry about it.. Florida got 10" of snow last Winter. It snowed there again this Winter.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty close to before. 09-10 was the most -NAO Winter on record, since the 1800s. We are in a little deeper -PDO now.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino's really favor this area vs NYC-North. Since 1998, >50% of Winter's have been La Nina (RONI) (average should be 33.3%)
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Todays Euro weeklies for March 9-16: March 16-23 Today's 3-4 week CPC
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Your kids finally got a significant snowfall! Did they enjoy it?
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Plant those pumpkins and watermelon the 2nd week of March. Call me risky. SSWs have not correlated with cold in March-April the last few times. Experiment to see how they do, they are thick plants.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    20+ days with significant snow on the ground is good. I feel like it was a real Winter. Of course at 39N/90 we aren't always going to get sustained cold like it was.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I can't wait! I'm going to do garden work.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've had an average Winter. Pretty good. I do wish there were more Clipper storms though, they are my favorite.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Re-enforced by -PNA pattern though. We need that Pacific High pressure to change. Some lite signs of -NAO loading pattern setting up... New El Nino's certainly don't start leading the pattern in March.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    78F on 12z Euro for March 7th in DC. 72F 3-10 and 76F 3-11.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've read things linking the two.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Significant Stratosphere Warming event to occur in early March. Does a March SSW precede a later-in-the-year El Nino? No.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    They have basically no snow on the Colorado mountains, for pretty much the first time ever. I saw a stat where Salt Lake City had 0.1" for the year, beating their previous low of 28" (still some time to go though)
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Crazy how it always swings back from cold to something extreme on the warm side.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z Euro basically has a week of straight 70s in DC March 6-12. 2012 anyone?
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    The last few March's with SSWs have not correlated with cold conditions.. historically there is a +15day lag to -NAO though
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wow the 12z Euro is warm March 6-12.. Looks like 70s in DC every day
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Higher than average probability is yes. March SSWs haven't been leading to -NAO as much the last few Winters so we'll see
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Typical -NAO correlation lag at that time of year is +15 days
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC thinks so
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm glad we don't have to talk about that anymore lol
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