Stormchaserchuck1

Love that deep trough NW of Hawaii. You don't can kick when the players are in position - it would take a whole re-alignment of the N. Pacific 500mb pattern, which is a little bit beyond the average model error. I think the wild card is the MJO and what it does. Seems models are betting on it staying strong. They want to have more of a -PNA pattern if the MJO goes weak, but I'm not seeing it: 21 of the last 29 months have been +PNA [CPC], and since the 23-24 Strong Nino flipped to negative-ENSO, 12 out of 19 months have been +PNA.

I've found that N. Atlantic SSTAs for Wintertime NAO pattern have a real strong correlation the leading May - August. I think later in the Fall and the Winter is more a product of the pattern, but there are pretty high correlation numbers at this time of the year as well. I think the Summer when things stabilize, subsurface temps can be seen in the surface SSTA profile. There is data that allows us to plot a list of 75-analog years to something like following Winter NAO conditions. In May-Aug the correlation goes up to +0.5 (75%)! but in Nov-Dec it's +0.25 (62.5%). Still a pretty strong correlation: You really want to see cold water off the East coast from NC to off of New Foundland. Which I guess we have to some extent. The above map is default positive, so a negative NAO goes to the opposite of those anomalies. The tripole pattern pattern actually holds a future NAO state pretty well. The same tripole pattern works for Jan-Feb to March-Apr NAO, and really throughout the year. Pretty high leading pattern here, given how secondary SSTs are.

CFS is wacky. It also has a huge ENSO bias. Notice that it runs 4 times a day, that run cited above was 12z today, different from 6z. A few weeks ago they had 90% of the country below average on the 12z run, then the 18z run had 95% of the country above average. I've seen 5-6 runs this year where it had the PNW <-30F for December 2025.. Now long range models are showing a +PNA to start Dec and a ridge going up the west coast or just west of it. The CFS had the same thing last year (-30F in the NW for Dec), and last Dec was +PNA.

If the peak is Nov 25-30, history says strong -NAO correlation, based around Dec 30 - Jan 4.

18z GEFS hr384

Long range models around the turn of the month are wanting to develop some kind of 500mb low north of Hawaii, +PNA under the -EPO/-WPO. There really no sign of a RNA pattern. That's why I think the 3-4 week CPC outlook put out today, Euro weeklies, and seasonal monthlies for Dec (CFS, CanSips) are wrong having the cold in the Upper Midwest, and a SE ridge, above average in the SE, US, and average in the Mid Atlantic. MJO could be holding strength going into 7-8-1 around the 1st half of December, and I think it's a below average temperature pattern everywhere east of the Rockies, at least for the 1st half of the month.

Yeah pretty classic -EPO showing up for the last few days of the month Models at that range did just completely lose a sustained -NAO, so let's see if it hold when we get closer... but it does match weak-negative ENSO/strong -QBO analogs for late Nov/early Dec

+PNA pattern trying to build at 384hr on the 18z GEFS. As PSUhoffman posted, we can get snow from this pattern. Let's see if it develops and holds as we get closer

I wonder if the Stratosphere warming forecast is going to stay so strong going into the last week of November, with models tonight taking away the -NAO in the long range. Here's the 1989/2005-analog pattern with weak-negative ENSO and strong -QBO. This is for Nov 28, based on tonights 0z GEFS

Good news and bad news The bad news is, models took away the prolonged/sustained west-based -NAO that it had been showing, the last few runs. The good news is, around the turn of the month they are developing a strong -WPO pattern with +PNA underneath of it -- a Pacific based cold pattern that should put much of the CONUS below average to start off December 0z GEFS mean hr384

Nice post Larry.. Jan Natural Gas is the highest priced contact of the Winter season, implying this is the most -NAO month, but I think the weak-negative ENSO/-QBO might turn us warmer after December, maybe more Pacific-driven warmth. I do see -AO tendency in January this year. Also, Nov 24 - Dec 7 typical lag to -NAO is +35 days, so that is most correlated to -NAO Dec 29 - Jan 12

Kind of limited data. History does say the average PDO cycle is just about as long as we've been in since 1998, but we seem to be at the most extreme part of the cycle now and common sense says that's probably another 10-15 years to neutralize. I know the NOAA has been doing subsurface passes in the PDO area, and there is warmer water down to -200m now more than ever before, which could be 5-10 years to change phases cleanly. There are sometimes 2-3 year phases blips in a long term opposite phase though.

Yeah but after 5/6 La Nina years, we have a tendency to flip for the next 3-5 years, and that happens immediately after 4/6 consecutive ENSO events or greater.. I'd give it 2/3 chances for El Nino next year, even if it's weak..

I wouldn't be so sure about +PDO in 2026, this is what we've seen so far this decade, which is way more extreme than any decade on record: October 2025 -2.40 September 2025 -2.33 August 2025 -3.20 July 2025 -4.16 June 2025 -2.62 May 2025 -1.66 April 2025 -1.15 March 2025 -1.12 February 2025 -1.40 January 2025 -1.28 December 2024 -2.03 November 2024 -3.13 October 2024 -3.80 September 2024 -3.56 August 2024 -2.91 July 2024 -3.00 June 2024 -3.15 May 2024 -2.98 April 2024 -2.11 March 2024 -1.52 February 2024 -1.33 January 2024 -1.57 December 2023 -1.66 November 2023 -1.79 October 2023 -2.23 September 2023 -2.99 August 2023 -2.47 July 2023 -2.52 June 2023 -2.53 May 2023 -2.42 April 2023 -3.07 March 2023 -2.45 February 2023 -1.65 January 2023 -1.24 December 2022 -2.21 November 2022 -2.41 October 2022 -1.81 September 2022 -2.29 August 2022 -2.38 July 2022 -2.64 June 2022 -1.32 May 2022 -2.24 April 2022 -2.09 March 2022 -1.67 February 2022 -1.91 January 2022 -2.40 December 2021 -2.71 November 2021 -2.75 October 2021 -3.13 September 2021 -1.96 August 2021 -0.95 July 2021 -2.00 June 2021 -1.82 May 2021 -2.04 April 2021 -1.84 March 2021 -1.67 February 2021 -1.09 January 2021 -0.61 December 2020 -0.99 November 2020 -1.58 October 2020 -0.62 September 2020 -1.04 August 2020 -1.33 July 2020 -0.92 June 2020 -0.75 May 2020 -0.53 April 2020 -1.32 March 2020 -1.75 February 2020 -1.48 January 2020 -1.41 Even seasonal models have a -PDO next Winter, despite El Nino.. but it's far out so skill is low.

Problem really is that we need a big NE N. Pacific low pressure, major negative anomaly at 500mb, and we haven't really had that since the 15-16 Strong Nino. I think maybe 1 or 2 anomalous times of only a few weeks in the Winter since then, but that's it. It's really a drought - actually the Feb-March N. Pacific -PNA recently broke the previous record for a 8-year consecutive period by +140%. We've been needing a big N. Pacific pattern change. We want the jet stream to be stopped up, and a big part of that is NE N. Pacific low pressure. It's not climate change, unless you are saying CC is putting more High pressure in the north pacific ocean. It's been a Hadley Cell - La Nina pattern since 16-17 (but to a lesser extent since 98-99).

Which extends out a -NAO to Jan 20-25 (although not a Strong SSW by late Dec, low correlation in lagged effect).

ASO ONI was -0.5, meaning we need to make it to DJF -0.5 for an official La Nina.. going to be close. The RONI is definitely in Weak Nina range though.

@brooklynwx99 Has 500mb maps of days leading up to NYC 18"+ snowstorms.. it has a real strong Aleutian ridge (I think near +150dm) a few days before.. along with a -NAO.

Dolphins are the worst. Why did they sign Tua to $55 mill/yr? I think Lamar is like the 10th highest paid QB now. If you have a lot of money, NFL is something that is really going up in value a lot over the next few decades.

Welcome! When we get coastals, Fallston does really well. I think we had close to 36" in Jan 2016. I also measured 125" in my backyard in the Winter of 02-03.

Welcome neighbor! We do much better for snow here, every mile makes a big difference. You're also kind of in a nice thunderstorm spot. Baltimore to just south of me is a zone that gets hit whenever we are risk. Edit: nevermind, you already live here. Whatever.

Usually ENSO related December isn't a big month for PNA Correlation really gets higher in Jan-Feb.. You know how we're following it so far..

I am a little worried about Jan and Feb in the 1989-90 and 2005-06 analogs. I do think there will be more -AO in Jan/Feb so we'll see how that goes.

You think? Long range models are showing more +PNA at the Day-15+ range. It's looking like a -WPO/-EPO wants to develop with a little +PNA under it. I don't see any signs of RNA on current long range models for late November, although I don't know if the Euro weeklies show that in Dec (It looks pretty neutral in the N. Pacific with the cold coming from west-based -NAO).

Natural Gas December contract is up 25% in the last 3.5 weeks.. from $3.63 on 10/19 to $4.54 now.. It's moving because of the prospect for a cooler December. I've been saying if you know this stuff is coming, you can make money. It's not as factored in as you'd think. NG January: $4.75 NG February: $4.42 NG March: $3.95 I usually use $5.00 as the "even" mark.. under is warmer than average probability, over is colder than average, although there are a lot of factors that are included.. it's not 100% weather related. Also is more correlated to the NAO than the Pacific, since Europe is a big part of the market.