Stormchaserchuck1

Cold Winter showed its hand when the Arctic was freezing this Summer.. In August we went sub-5000dm, which was the coldest N. Hemisphere H5 on record for Aug. You know the eastern US starting cooling down around that time, too. I ran the analogs, and it fits a perfect warm-to-cold season progression since 2012.

The maps we are posting is accumulated precip. There may be some virga Sat night but that's not counted.

Was going to say the 84hr panel actually looks really good. The differences between the NAM and 12z GFS at 72hr in the Southwest are pretty extreme. Maybe the GFS starts phasing that sw energy sooner.

Still a 1042mb High pressure in NY state on the NAM at 84hr. That's a tough wall for this low pressure to climb against.

Almost a negative tilt over AZ on the NAM at 60hr lol

I'm comparing to the 12z GFS. SW piece isn't cutoff on the NAM at hr57

SW energy getting caught up by the northern stream way early on 18z NAM fwiw

18z NAM at 51hrs has the northern stream further SW than the 12z GFS at 57 by a pretty good amount actually. And the sw near Baja is ejecting more quickly

15z SREF looks more amped/north

Pretty strong trend in the last 24 hours actually. Remember when 24 hours ago the GFS had no snow, was too far south? I think we still have some time to move this thing around a little. It's hard to believe the low pressure will cut much further with strong High pressure to the north though. This LP north is actually creating some stronger wind gradient in the snow zone.

Wow I can't believe PHL mixes.

1042mb High pressure in NY state when the precip starts is insane!

NAM much more phased than the 6z GFS fwiw

9z SREF

They may eventually issue some blizzard warnings if that High pressure stays so strong to the north.

If you like cold, you have to like this look. Deep mid-Winter cold pattern for the east coast

SREF looks north

^I've done that exercise too many times over the years lol Here's the monthly PNA data: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table 65-66 and 72-73 were the greatest anomalies.. -PNA.

Very cool that it's correlating with a good pattern for the 2nd time this Winter

In Strong ENSO events the PNA usually holds the same state through Dec-Jan-Feb and sometimes March though

Yes, you pointed that out way early and it was correct. If I recall correctly, it was strong like, 10/10?

9z SREF way north early fwiw

It's important to know what ENSO does as a first point. There is a North Pacific High correlation (+NOI in La Nina)... when you get a strong +PNA pattern in January... that's not La Nina impacting. I do wonder why Larry got that like 10/10 of negative ENSO -PNA Dec's went +PNA in Jan since 1980. It's right, but that's not what La Nina does. I think it has something to do with the Kelvin wave associated with warmth spreading to the central-ENSO-subsurface.

Yeah, I am pleasantly surprised with them. It's very cliche on these boards or some people's schtick to say that forecasts are no good more than 5 days out, or stress how bad the 2 week forecasts are, etc.. in reality, the field has improved. CPC does a pretty good job in their 3-4 week and monthly forecasts from what I have seen. Also their long range stuff pretty much paints a picture 1 year out and in the updates every month there are pretty much minor changes. I will continue to keep track of, if their forecasts are better than the Futures and Commodities market.. in my experience so far they are. Gawx also predicted it, saying that the NG price won't react until well into the forecast period, a week or so before the cold hit - that's what happened. It dropped, a lot actually, early Jan, then is up now 23% in the last 2 days. Good job CPC and Larry (+PNA January hit, too)!

Already working on it