Stormchaserchuck1

^Do you know if there are circuit breakers on the trading of Oil? Sometimes they will only let it go so far in a day.

SSW should be giving us -NAO by the end of the month.. doesn't always work though, and the last few March's SSWs haven't had much of a -nao correlation. Should be interesting to see if models have it wrong though

Strong +NAO being the biggest counter factor

I noticed this pattern last Winter, which we had never really seen before. Then of course the extreme's that followed this year

Wow that Southwest, US heat ridge is strong on the 12z EPS. Phoenix beating their old DJF Temp record by +1.8F is phenomenal (#1 to #2 is the same as #2 to #20 - donsutherland stats). There might be a significant record set there in March, as well.

Well 2nd half of March snow is really hard, especially with the -PDO pattern this decade, but a below average temp pattern does look likely as that High pressure starts to build strong in the Southwest in the medium range- the pattern of the Winter.

it's actually not a bad time to be bullish on March, analogs of the DJF pattern shows it repeats for March 60% of the time, which is pretty high. The SW, US heat ridge is looking like a constant. That drops a trough into the Northeast.

An interesting thing about March 2012 was actually how cold it was in the N. Hemisphere I recall almost hitting 90F that month

I feel like we've been tracking this warmup forever. NWS has DC hitting 83F on Wednesday! While it's still technically Winter!

SOI was +30 today.. it certainly hasn't been leading the past few years Somewhat correlated to -PDO phase sustaining

Looks like Phoenix is going to obliterate their March high temperature record again. March 13-23 looks really warm in Las Vegas, Denver, Phoenix. That roll-forward I posted a few posts back is holding merit for March. We are in a pattern.

Models look really warm for Phoenix again mid to late March. They might break their March record.

It was painful watching the D-line last year. Hopefully next year Wiggins and Starks take a leap up and we have a really good defense. Crosby is the same age as Lamar. He's under contract until the 2029 season. I also like the strategy of getting the team to be good so Lamar will sign an extension. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady won super bowl's with other teams because their team was tanking.

Ravens jump from 1:12 Super bowl betting odds next year to 1:10

The DJF PNA looks like this The N. Pacific has more weight than N. America.. Dec had a really strong Aleutian ridge, and there was Aleutian ridge at other times in the Winter, so that is core-PNA calculation.

23-24, 15-16, 97-98, 91-92, 82-83, 72-73, 65-66

Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year

SOI is not budging yet 5 Mar 2026 1010.85 1003.90 13.59 10.96 8.17 4 Mar 2026 1011.34 1003.15 19.53 11.31 7.65 3 Mar 2026 1010.85 1002.70 19.34 11.46 6.95 2 Mar 2026 1010.44 1002.95 16.18 11.70 6.42 1 Mar 2026 1011.79 1003.40 20.49 11.80 6.11 28 Feb 2026 1011.80 1003.50 17.10 11.49 5.74 27 Feb 2026 1011.02 1003.50 13.35 11.33 5.53 3 of the last 5 months have been >+10 SOI, after 31 straight months under +10 (March 2023-Sept 2025). In the 2023 Super El Nino, the SOI was near 0 monthly March and April. Only in May 2023 did it have its first solid negative period, when El Nino was already happening. Almost 32 consecutive months >0 SOI July 2020 - Feb 2023.

+1.0c popping up south of Nino 1+2 (time sensitive)

^+2c by September, which the mean Euro is predicting, has only been done twice since 1950 (1997 +2.1, and 2015 +2.2). They were the two strongest El Nino's at a later peak since 1950 (ONI). If you adjust -0.5 for the RONI, +2c by September would be the 8th strongest El Nino on record.

Pretty nice cell in eastern West Virginia. maybe some small hail.

Below average temps with above average precip! Still long ways to go, but something is at least on the radar for timeframe. Climate Prediction Center - 8 to 14 Day Outlooks

The general tendency is -H5 near the Poles, with +H5 in the mid-latitudes, but it's a pretty weak correlation (0.10-0.15) that far out. I've run several individual cities record breaking warm patterns out at different times, and that's what the constant theme is (warm mid-latitudes, -h5 near the Pole +several months time).

^For the last 3 years (23-25), RONI has been -0.533c the value of ONI month-by-month (0.0 ONI is -0.53 RONI). Staying the same.

0z GEFS look much stronger with -WPO in the medium range. I'm going to have to learn that the EPS has much better accuracy than GEFS.