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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Comparing the 18z Hrr 38hr to 12z GFS 44hr.. the whole trough is further SW along the west coast by a decent difference, from the NW to the Baja energy. Some things to work out here in the short term.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I regret not trading it.. 1 futures contract would have profited something like +20k. CPC nailed it. Their long range forecast vs futures and commodities is something I am going to continue to keep track of in the future.. Or if I'm forecasting something that has volatility. I was before saying Natural Gas at $3 was cheap, and $4.50-$5.00 is the over/under mark for a cold Winter or not.... it just went into the "cold Winter" range.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    @GaWx Did you see that Natural Gas jumped like 86% in the last 4 days? I just checked it, and thought it was something else when the price was $5.55. It was $3.10 at the close on Friday.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    I stay all snow on the 12z GFS. Too bad it's an outlier, but this -3 AO within days of the coldest time of year has to hold some cold I would think.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, 2 years in a row the extreme -PDO Fall was not a warm Winter pattern in the east. The only other comparable -PDO Fall in magnitude was 55-56 and that was a cold Dec-Jan in the east, too.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    6z GFS vs 12z NAM, same time
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cold Winter showed its hand when the Arctic was freezing this Summer.. In August we went sub-5000dm, which was the coldest N. Hemisphere H5 on record for Aug. You know the eastern US starting cooling down around that time, too. I ran the analogs, and it fits a perfect warm-to-cold season progression since 2012.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    The maps we are posting is accumulated precip. There may be some virga Sat night but that's not counted.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Was going to say the 84hr panel actually looks really good. The differences between the NAM and 12z GFS at 72hr in the Southwest are pretty extreme. Maybe the GFS starts phasing that sw energy sooner.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still a 1042mb High pressure in NY state on the NAM at 84hr. That's a tough wall for this low pressure to climb against.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Almost a negative tilt over AZ on the NAM at 60hr lol
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm comparing to the 12z GFS. SW piece isn't cutoff on the NAM at hr57
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    SW energy getting caught up by the northern stream way early on 18z NAM fwiw
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z NAM at 51hrs has the northern stream further SW than the 12z GFS at 57 by a pretty good amount actually. And the sw near Baja is ejecting more quickly
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    15z SREF looks more amped/north
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty strong trend in the last 24 hours actually. Remember when 24 hours ago the GFS had no snow, was too far south? I think we still have some time to move this thing around a little. It's hard to believe the low pressure will cut much further with strong High pressure to the north though. This LP north is actually creating some stronger wind gradient in the snow zone.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wow I can't believe PHL mixes.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    1042mb High pressure in NY state when the precip starts is insane!
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAM much more phased than the 6z GFS fwiw
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    9z SREF
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    They may eventually issue some blizzard warnings if that High pressure stays so strong to the north.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    If you like cold, you have to like this look. Deep mid-Winter cold pattern for the east coast
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    SREF looks north
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^I've done that exercise too many times over the years lol Here's the monthly PNA data: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table 65-66 and 72-73 were the greatest anomalies.. -PNA.
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