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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Did anyone see how far north the 3z SREF is at the end of its run? Even gives us some snow Friday
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Sometimes they take the cold in the next 25 days and run that out. I don't think the surface will be that cold if that Pacific H5 comes to be. They seem to want to make west-based -NAO the dominant pattern, but almost all the time the Pacific has more weight. It's far out, so maybe that somewhat weak Pacific H5 won't even verify, it's suppose to be a Nina pattern this year on seasonal models and such and we are very +PNA for the next 15+ days.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Hopefully that Pacific doesn't come to be. I can see that being a 40N pattern. Neutral H5 Alaska and cold NW Canada is sneaky surface level warm air if it holds the same pattern as it gets closer.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Safe to say the High pressure to the north is overdone, and the storm will shift a little north even if it means a little less phasing? I guess I'm asking what is the difference in outcome if the High pressure is 1035mb vs 1040mb?
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    1040mb High in NY state when the precip starts. Here's the potential we're looking at.. it counts sleet as snow depth, but a shift north would look like this
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    6z NAM at 84hrs phasing much better than the 0z GFS Exciting
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    By the way, since this is still a long range thread -- the EPS did MUCH better than the GEFS regarding the upcoming cold pattern. 5 days ago the GFS ensembles had huge SE ridge, and EPS was below average in the Mid Atlantic for last 8 days of January.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    That one didn't have a good pattern in the Pacific or 50/50 low area (500mb vortex was well NE of the spot, technically a "south-based +NAO" -- it wasn't a backed up pattern, it was progressive). This one is a better pattern from the medium range: 50/50 is steady, blocking up north in Alaska, northern Canada, and northern Greenland/Davis Strait.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I made 2 posts about it being a case study, based on the CPC's cold long range forecasts for the 2nd half of January. Looks like it's going to verify as a predictor to the market.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Again, with a 1040mb High to the north, what the UKMET is showing is a wide swath of blizzard warnings It's been so rare lately to have strong High pressure to the north.. if it holds, blizzard conditions are the upside
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    1040mb High to the north would probably make that warrant blizzard warnings
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Check out the point and click forecast Saturday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 19. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Best thing about it is, it gets really cold after the storm.. like single digits or below zero. Then we stay below average probably through the first week of Feb. It would stick around for a long time.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    With a 1040mb High to the north as it starts.. close to blizzard
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    6z GFS almost has a 50/50 low.. We have a strong composite in our biggest snowstorms for DC/Balt for negative 500mb anomalies in the 3 areas I marked with a black line. In the last few days it's come a little closer. We need that Great Lakes trough to trend south or SW.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    6z GFS is continuing to do one of these things.. it's at least showing significant southern jet stream energy, which is something we haven't seen for several months.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z EPS has a strong signal for a storm around 162hr With so much CAD, it's likely going to either be a wintery storm, or slide south. Much less chance for rain, especially with AO near -3, and PNA neutral or positive around the coldest few days of the year, on average -AO is our best pattern for winter snow.. doesn't mean it can't slide to the south though. But a significant NW cut trend is unlikely.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Don't look now, but the 15z Hrr has moderate snow over the Baltimore area later today. Another 0.5" here
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Snow finishing up here.. It rained most of the night, all of this fell within the last 2 hours
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Winter Storm Warning in Florida panhandle!
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have some big flakes starting to mix in. It seems to be changing over here.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've been mostly rain. A few flakes are trying to mix in.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    6z GFS has Jan 24-25 storm.. 6" for DC. 1037mb High to the north.
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