Stormchaserchuck1

Ray, suppose the orientation doesn't change, you just multiply the anomalies by x1.5.. do you think 09-10 would have been a bad Winter?

Right.

By weaker you mean in Nino 1+2 and 3?

I guess.. Not too far from ideal though. Nino 1+2 is almost cold there v! impressive!

The way this played out in the PNA region isn't too far from what a Nino 3.4-based El Nino should do See how the N. pacific low is directly north of the El Nino

Too much warmth in the east.

Yeah basin wide is warmer than west-based, but I'm pointing out that 91-92 Winter warmth was an anomaly in an event with that orientation.

NAO part of that composite is "other factors", not completely connected to ENSO imo.

The only way I can see that making a difference is if it's spilling over into Nino 3 and 1+2. If Nino 1+2 is +2, instead of +0.5.. because of the physics of that situation support a CONUS ridge

The NAO is weakly correlated to ENSO. There is in statistics a point of "random" where X amount of examples if they show something can be deemed as not significant. Then the logic of weak and strong in the same area is different, and it doesn't make sense. It's a shame we have so few data points, but the physics of meteorology and Hadley Cell/mid latitude Cell meeting points support generally cooler conditions in the Eastern US in Strong (>2.0) west-based El Nino's, as long as the eastern ENSO regions aren't going crazy

A sample of 50 Strong El Nino's might change your mind?

El Nino events actually favor 10mb Stratosphere warmings.. which can be -AO

We are so lucky the indexes were what they were in the middle of Winter. The longer term (last 14 month) index pattern is horrid for cold.

I see where you are getting stuck, you are taking analogs too literal. There are only really 2. The mechanics of the situation don't change, it only changes the amplitude. If forcing is west-based, that's +PNA and a stronger +PNA if it's >2.0 in the west (RONI). I'll take a really, really strong +PNA. You just don't want it to get too close to the west coast, US, which is more tropically east-based

So why wouldn't the opposite produce an opposite anomaly pattern?

Also there have been no La Nina's <-2.0. If there were, I bet they would be warm if they were west-based (maybe before 1950 there were some, I'll have to check)

^That world record of 134F in Death Valley from 1913 seems like low hanging fruit

If someone asked me, I'd take a repeat of 91-92 styled El Nino. the 2nd and 3rd strongest like that were 09-10 and 02-03

But why would the same thing change if it's 0.5 or 2.0?

Not enough examples. 91-92 is the only west-based event 2.0 or greater. 15-16 was the only basin wide. 0/1 and 0/1.. the rest were east-based

Most strong events have the N. Pacific low further east.. over the North Pacific High region. You can see by that composite that the N. pacific low was actually pretty west that Winter.

We are still in that +1-5 year from Solar Max window. You will say the NAO wasn't that bad last Winter, but the average of the last 14 months is very ++

That 2.0 stuff is superstition. Mechanics of something doesn't change if it gets stronger. If a car that normally drives 40mph goes 100mph, it goes 100mph, not more left or right.

I don't agree.. the forcing is on where the Hadley Cell and mid latitude cell meet, and that forcing is north of the El Nino.. west-based strong event gives you strong +PNA. You can actually see by the composite of that cold season that we did get +PNA, it was just mixed with +EPO/+AO/+NAO

This has worked out great for the last 5 months... this is April before a later in the year El Nino March 2026 is going to beat 2012 as the warmest March on record for CONUS. The heat lingered in 2012: This is what my April forecast would look like