Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Meh. 4-2 against teams that are 9-16 without playing them, and 2 unlikely wins and beating Ten barely. And the Browns probably aren't as good as 4-2. Hopefully they get it together going forward.. The offense with Lamar and Flowers has looked explosive at times.
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Yeah I think the whole year is when you have the strongest event on record, and there are basically no negative H5 anomalies in the mean April to the present. Will be interesting to see if the pattern sets up for the 1st time as the N. Hemisphere Winter comes, it did happen for the S. Hemisphere Winter. -
Yeah I mean I'm 39F at 10pm. It's felt cool from the 2nd half of Summer on. I think there will be -AO tendency this Winter. And the N. pacific is looking nothing like El Nino right now... still.. told ya lol ENSEMBLE LOOP Will be interesting to see the N. pacific pattern this Winter. Monster low pressure likely won't dominate
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I'm not saying it can't snow, if the Pacific neutralizes we can do it with -AO, which I think we will have some -AO this Winter. But I'm pointing out a very likely flaw: long term modeling in the N. Pacific.
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I disagree. Seasonal models and several weeks out models have show major error in the last few years. You can mark my words- the seasonal model mean is showing a -120dm N Pacific trough for DJFM. I think it will be significantly higher than that. Odds of them being too low is probably 95%. In 23-24 they were showing -90 to -120dm Winter mean and it ended up being +45dm. It's not narrow minded at all. Narrow minded is thinking it's going to be the same as all past El Nino's. History says Aleutian Low is an established El Nino pattern starting in October. That is not happening this year at all.
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It's the best ENSO/PDO analog since the 1800s, and the global pattern has taken on its own momentum recently, so recent analogs have much greater weight than older ones. Long term models have shown major ENSO-default bias, in the last few years. Aleutian low typically becomes an established ENSO pattern in October. This is not it at all. ENSEMBLE LOOP You are referring to a 3-day period of weakly established N. pacific low. I think that's the 5th time I've heard you refer to that happening.
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23-24 did the same thing basically every week Nov-Mar. Let's see if that Aleutian low actualizes.
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Why would we need to stop focusing on it when it's one of the strongest correlated variables there is? It's completely dominating the Strongest El Nino on record in the N. Pacific so far. Philly, Balt and DC are near record lows for snowfall since 2016 when the core -PDO set in. Near the coast a few events really skews your total. It's like saying Pensacola Fl had a 10" snow event so therefore everything about a 10 year pattern is not relevant
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It's a really strong decadal pattern. NOAA has run subsurface analysis of the N. Pacific and show very warm anomalies making it to -400m. That has never happened before. It will take a lot of time to get that out, at least a few years. History does show it's strongly cyclical over the course decades though so maybe in time it will be favorable again. I do think the next positive phase will be dominated by warm water in the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast North America, but it may take a few decades to get there, because it's a completely different pattern.
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N. Pacific low is not necessarily bad. Our biggest snowstorms come from that composite. Give me +PDO/Super east-based Nino 50 times and I bet it will be good 30 times vs recent averages. The problem is -PDO is completely overwhelming the N. Pacific pattern right now. You see this on models for the next 15 days.
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Negative PDO is the opposite of what they have. It's not a cooler north pacific. Where they have a Low pressure is really a High pressure.
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I don't know why you've taken on the stance that everything is normal with the El Nino and H. Hemisphere pattern. It clearly is not. We have not seen more than 4 consecutive N. Pacific low days since the El Nino began in April. Oct-Nov.. -0.38 max Dec.. -0.32 max To say that too much on the correlations and then post QBO correlation is ridiculous! I know the QBO is not anything different from random. It's not a practical surface level indicator perhaps beyond the AO effects.
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I think mid-October is most important. The last week of October nears "0" correlation historically. Of course there are only 73 years in the dataset, but it comes out to a 56% opposite correlation (Oct to DJFM mean). Then after the dataset ends in 2020, 5 of the last 5 years have flipped, Oct to the Winter. Pretty interesting. Of course over like 250 years I think all months of the year probably correlate to all months of the year NAO, because the NAO is decadal.
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In the N. Pacific PNA region, October and November combined have higher correlation numbers than December.
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Models have an Aleutian low, and somewhat strong Western Canada ridge, +PNA pattern Hrs 324-384. Let's see if it holds, last time they showed a big AL for 3 days from this range and it didn't verify. Edit: 0z weakened the pattern
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The CFS, which is not a very good model, is showing -10dm Days 36-42 in the North Pacific in November. Come on, that's how far you had to go to see some semblance of effect for the strongest El Nino on record? lol
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Just not a very good model. I'm surprised that you can have knowledge some index patterns, analog correlations and such and outperform seasonal models. An example is every seasonal showing -100 to -200dm +PNA in the N. Pacific this Winter. Just lazy ENSO input
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Isaiah Likely 11 catches, 2TDs. Meanwhile Mark Andrews sucks. It's a good thing I could draft Likely for my fantasy team at least
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There would have to be rapid ENSO cooling for that to happen.
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Modoki is ridiculous. This is the strongest east-based event on record. The subsurface which moves west to east is further west than all Super Nino analogs, which means the east-based nature of the event has staying power. The ECMWF still has Nino 1+2 at +3c next May
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Strongest El Nino on record normalizes the normal La Nina in the equilateral Pacific
