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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Near record low arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept. Since 2012, it has flipped for the Winter almost every time. Would you guys take a repeat of 24-25 and 25-26 with a Super Nino STJ? I would. Should be interesting.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PNA may seem out of context in an El Nino thread, but I'm just describing what's happening now - this is the highest El Nino on record for the date, and right now it's not acting like previous Nino's. Will that change for the Winter? perhaps, but I wouldn't expect a monster -150dm N. pacific low in the DJFM mean.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO is still around -3. 23-24 and 72-73 are the only analogs for both unless it starts rising fast.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wow! Keep in mind July 2025 currently holds the all time monthly PDO record in either state, with -4.2. Oct 2024 was the all time monthly record before that, since the mid 1800s, at -3.8. I know they edited the monthly marks so I want to double check but the site is currently down. Aug being possibly the 7th month in a row with -PNA is a big reason why it's dropping so much. Will it start effecting things different as we move toward the cold season? Perhaps, but -PDO decadal is almost as much of an anomaly as El Nino currently is. Having the two together like this is probably coming up on a 6std happening! Exciting!
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm surprised the N. Hemisphere pattern isn't going more +AAM like, which is a GOA low (usually around -100dm even in the warm season with +4 GLAAM), and a High south of Greenland, also approaching +100dm.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cool. I like those moving X-Y plots. There aren't enough Super Nino analogs. The database is too small, so common sense has to be used as to what it means in the northern latitudes. For example, many previous Super Nino's had a cold season +EPO and +AO/somewhat +NAO, which has less to do with ENSO. Super Nino effects the North Pacific High, primarily.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another big arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    CANSIPS has the El Nino way too far west. Further north in the EPO domain has less to do with ENSO though, and lot of the colder temps on model are from ridging 60-90N on the Pacific side. A further east El Nino event would correlate more with trough in GOA, vs the spread out +PNA that it's showing with Nino 3.4 based El Nino. Even though it's not as cold, our biggest storms happen with GOA trough. Let's see it develop at all first though, the first half of Aug is projected to be the 7th consecutive -PNA month.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    The fact that the PDO has dropped -2 during the time of Nino 3.4 warming +2.4 has to be some kind of record too, for both sides (Nina+PDO too). It might be a 5-6std event.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    97-98 had negative heights in Alaska. CANSIPS has +heights there. ECMWF I think is completely different, showing +EPO for the Winter.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Why does the CANSIPS have the El Nino continue to be centered so far west? That's not the way it's developing or is now. +6c in Nino 3.4 is pretty extreme. Nino 1+2 is currently twice as high as Nino 3.4.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    CANSIPS has the El Nino much further west than it's developing.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Closing in on +4c in Nino 1+2
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    August DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.0
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    +9c has popped in the subsurface on TAO/Triton for the first time of this event! It's warming pretty rapidly too, we may see a +10c in a couple of days. That's +18F, so if the water is usually 62F, it's now 80F.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, I thought we were talking about ENSO. 1987 is a really good find, as that was one of the most El Nino Summers on record, JJA ONI was +1.5c, all time record for JJA is +1.6c
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    No one takes it seriously though, because it's used so often. It's a good warning for a thunderstorm coming, I guess, which most people react to.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the real connection is with global temperatures. A huge trough over the North Pacific is necessarily Winter disaster for the east coast.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    *defend the system at all costs* lol I find it's a good topic to discuss here. They are just making people aware of a thunderstorm. It's less about severe intensity these days. We rarely get a severe storm compared to the Midwest though anyway. Not sure why there's near an equal number of warnings issued west to east.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    People think Super Nino means warm too automatically. The NAO/AO play a role, and if you map N. Pacific 500mb anomalies historically with Super Nino's you will see a N. Pacific trough placement in the cold season where it is usually doesn't extend a 2nd wave ridge so far east.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nothing defies the laws of physics lol. July will be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA, and projections through August 15 put it about -0.5 for the month by then. Do we make 7 in a row?
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not sure what you're referring to here. Bluewave just made a good post, showing not a 5 degree difference in the July map, but 180 degrees, opposite. Even if we correlate with cooler conditions for a short time, I don't know that it will sustain. LR CPC outlooks are warm.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't call a little -0.25 area on a 324hr map "El Nino taking over the Hemisphere".
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Severe wx warnings never verify here, and every organized storm has a STW these days. I think I've had 43 severe storms warnings since my last severe storm (wind).
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Most Super El Nino's in history had a +AO/+NAO. It's not actually as correlated as that, so the sample is biased a little warm.
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