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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    My average high gets down to 38 on the coldest day of the year, Jan 27. I think the average high is low 40s in early Jan. Problem with -PNA is that it's rarely very below (besides behind storm systems/cold fronts). It hits "average or above" at a 0.85 correlation. Also, Jan has a bigger SE ridge correlation than December
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    7" of snow here Ray, I probably beat you. How much snow did you end up getting? (It's Dec 14th)
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good news is we have 2 days with highs in the 20s coming up! Bad news is it warms up Wed, near 50 Thursday, then we will probably have to wait until a little into January for another snow with the PNA dipping to -3 in the coming time.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    That is one heck of a -PNA we need to take down. The signal on 384hr ensemble mean is +300dm! That's the average of 21 members. Then after the RNA goes away, it usually takes a few days to flush out the pattern here downstream. Kind of tough to get that change as early as New Years. Models don't typically bust on a -3 PNA by any more than 1std.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    A winter wonderland.. I measured 6"+ in the grass Here's my 6" ruler
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    The Euro weeklies and EPS weeklies did warm up long range +days after the move though. I agree though, that it is predictable if you are good at forecasting, from what I've seen tracking it so far. If Jan-Feb end up being cold (which is a chance imo), the price will rebound to over $4 probably. It's not the gospel, but it does accentuate moves more than model runs, which seem a little behind.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, we're getting close to a -NAO in the allotted time from Stratosphere warming lag, on the 0z GFS ensembles https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    If it went in other direction, we would be in the early stages of a 02-03 type Winter That one week move was incredible! We might have to consider that the consensus is now for a warmer Jan-March. If it's not, NG will rebound.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    snowman did do a good job of pointing out that it was a La Nina pattern in the Summer and Fall, being -AAM. This is a massive -PNA, a Strong La Nina pattern: https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is my biggest storm since 2018 Snowing moderately again. In 02-03 I had like 10 of these lol
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    More lightning! I measured 6" in the grass.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    5 more lightning flashes about 30 minutes ago! With one, everything turned blue and green. There was loud thunder in the distance on]with two of them. I have close to 4" on the grass, but on my porch it's barely 2".
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Happy to see the radar still has greens from Martinsburg to Harrisburg. It's really wet/compact snow, but I have about 2.5" in the grass. And I had 2 flashes of lightning! I was deep in the woods walking and it lit everything up! That was about 30 minutes ago.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Geez we have a big difference. I'm closing in on 1.5"
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    The storm over performed a little bit with radar, duration and all. The ratios were much lower than the snow maps posted leading up to the storm though.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    See why you don't use Kuchera maps when it's in the low to mid 30s? Radar is finally filling in over Baltimore city and DC.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Dark greens headed right for me! I'm going to take a walk in the woods in a little while.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm liking how the band is holding up near Harrisburg - It will probably end from the west, not the north. About 1" here, light to moderate snow. So pretty.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Light snow, covering everything. 0.5".
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's the trend. It's a little warmer at the start, then it only snows for a few hours, albeit heavy. My guess would be 1-2" DC to Baltimore
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z Hrr cutting back totals a little bit south of PA
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm pulling an all nighter, getting ready for the all nigher tomm night! 6z Hrr looks north, but a solid 4" here
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Models don't usually correct significantly when there is a PNA projected to be -2 to -3 for an extended period of time. Sometimes you will trend toward a better polar orientation (more -EPO), but that doesn't favor deep cold/snow, it just mutes the warmup.
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