Stormchaserchuck1

March +NAO.. 2026 will probably have ~+2 NAO. It precedes warm CONUS conditions the following Winter in the northern 1/2 fwiw

^ Stratosphere warming really busted with lagged -NAO probability.. for the 2nd year in a row in March. The November one worked though

The Earth's circulation isn't deviating that much. Things like the NAO still show Atlantic circulation mode, and although -NAO hasn't hit as hard with cold, +NAO has hit just as hard, harder with warmth. In the end, it evens out but you still have positive and negative modes to the index. Here's the last 333 consecutive months.. although ENSO is "warm", you can see by the Hadley Cell circulation that there is still a well defined "Nina-mode". Relative indexes work the same as the Earth still has 99.99% of it's general circulation in continuum.

I know, I'm not looking forward to the 1,000 posts about how "everything's warming in this new climate"

There's probably a 85% that any given place will be above average year-to-year, for DJFM (91-20 averages). I would have said 80% until this heat ridge hit the Mountain West and SW this cold season.

Yeah, definitely, they have a slight +PDO correlation too in the preceding late Spring/Summer The "other things driving" must have been really strong 2016-2024 because it bucked the warm ENSO/PDO correlation in that time. Those correlation SSTA's are really strong though in those preceding maps, then another pattern emerges in the Fall. I might have to break it down and do a manual index, implementing it for a Winter forecast this year. I'm glad you appreciate the value of the method.

^El Nino by itself is usually cooler in the Summer in the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Northeast Before a later in the year peak is stronger

In 2023 and 2024 the Atlantic SSTs were the warmest they have ever been.. I don't think we are in -AMO cycle, it's too soon off of that. In 2026 Atlantic hurricane season thread, I smoothed out long term AMO, and found it's still in ascending phase, although data is missing since 2023. Last year and this year in the overall trend look like just a small wave down.

Yes, ENSO state is connected. It has about 0.3 correlation between Nina/-WPO and Nino/+WPO. The EPO doesn't connect with SSTAs nearly as much. The EPO might be the hardest index to predict in advance.

C+/B-. I don't like dry and cold, which it was a lot. The 11" storm sticking around for a month was awesome though. The other 4 months were meh. I think it only snowed (flurries or more) 11 times. Edit: the early Dec storm overperformed and I got 7"! Loved that one, there were 20+ flashes of green lightning.

74 pretty easily. It's a little humid out

Warm and muggy today, mid 70s in March. It's hard to remember it's still just March as we've had so many of these days this month. The NAO is very positive, but there has been a less than ideal 500mb pattern for very warm days this month in the W. Pacific (+EPO/+WPO usually drives major March warm ups - the WPO hasn't been positive this month).

Pretty strong opposite correlation (-WPO) Sept-Nov 2025 Before +WPO Winter (opposite for -WPO) Clear pattern

Western Pacific and Indian Ocean seems to definitely lead Winter WPO, SSTA-wise.

As we progress more into the Fall the Indian Ocean SSTAs are a good indicator of the WPO setting up for the Winter. Check out the early season lead though... Pretty strong May-July You can make an index with the N Pacific cold pool at -0.4 vs Indian Ocean and ENSO +0.5 and have a 80% probability indicator for Winter WPO.

Mid latitudes are kind of on fire the last few years.. I would just like to see a trough 45N in the Pacific

Yeah, North Atlantic SSTAs and tripole or not is also a good indicator.. a few things that are determined in the summer.

You will tend to get more of an Aleutian low, which drops a trough into the eastern US. I guess the west would still be quite warm in that scenario.

Believe it or not Summer sea-level pressure 60-90N is a great lead for what kind of upper latitude pattern will happen in the Winter.. since 2012 it's flipped every single time. We want negative SLP June-August

+QBO/east-based El Nino and -PDO is a very warm Winter composite.. it's early and those things can change (Nino could be more west-based, look at how Nino 4 is currently warming.. and PDO may rise through the year? - I don't know, Feb was <-1.00)

If we can get the western regions to amp up, these are our most western weighted strong +ENSO events since 2000.. this pattern is phasing out over the course of the last few decades though.

March 2026 might be the most +NAO March on record since 1950. Look at how that goes with El Nino later in the year..

23-24 was the only one since 2005? (I don't know, but I don't think any Winter since then beat 97-98 or 01-02). If I get a big ++NAO signal from N. Atlantic Summer SSTA's, I think warmest Winter on record could be in the cards.

02-03 had more -EPO and -WPO. You pointed out yesterday positive phases of these indexes has gone with basin-wide El Nino's, and especially east-based.

You've mentioned 02-03 a few times but that was a major west-based Nino. I don't think we're going to have that orientation this year, and the Pacific is still in a -ENSO state, left over from what has been that phase generally since 2016. The Mountain West hitting >+10F anomalies for a 4-5 month period this Winter honestly scares me about cold Winter prospects next year.