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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think he's look at NOAA. He referenced Feb as around -1, which is noaa
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Progression of yearly SSTA with January PDO. It doesn't correlate really strong until August. And Aug-Sept-Oct is exponentially higher than Spring/early Summer.. doesn't matter as much through June.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just think it could be a little surprising the possibility for colder conditions in Stronger El Nino. A few of them occurred in the 1895-1948 dataset. The # of samples we have right now is skewed a little warm and too +NAO, imo. Of course we have this global warming spike hitting the West coast and Rockies so we'll see if next Winter doesn't try to repeat the dataset.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Every month in the 2020s has been -PDO. 74 consecutive months right now. Will it break? Stay tuned!
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    In the eastern regions. Even so, our snowstorm composite in the Mid Atlantic is a GOA low which is the much favored El Nino pattern, even in Strong. That means we are a -NAO away from a great possibly historic Winter, with a super amped STJ. I don't agree with your logic about going with a higher number changes the players positionings.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Let's see.. it will be interesting to see if it goes with El Nino and pulls a 2014-2016, or if it continues to meander near neutral despite strong ENSO forcing like 23-24.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well obviously Winters are better if the PDO is strong vs near neutral. You can still get a NE warm Winter in near neutral PDO in El Nino
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    It probably will average positive.. but I think it could be in the ~+0.50 range vs the +1/1.5 that you might think goes with Stronger El Nino.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Feels like another superstition. If anything 2 consecutive -PDO El Nino events should favor another one vs something opposite. Weather can be cyclical. I do think the fundamentals of PDO state may have started to change with the Solar Max/aurora borealis the last 2 years, since May 2024.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO isn't as strongly connected to ENSO as you would think.. here are the Strongest El Nino's. 2 other areas in the globe have bigger anomalies
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah we've had a lot of warmer days.. might be a record for the most 80+
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Can't wait for 80/62 tomorrow on the last day of March.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    That -WPO Fall loading pattern in SSTA really hit, too.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's rare to get a strong west-based Nino but 91-92 certainly could have been colder..
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well I said if you multiplied anomalies by 1.5x what would it be. That would make Nino 1+2 0.0 to 0.0.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Agree to disagree I guess. I don't think more of the same changes the positions.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nationally, 09-10 was actually drier than most Strong Nino's. I guess at 39N it's not that typical to get several big blizzards but NAO has never been more negative..
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    If Nino 1+2 is as cold as 09-10 I don't see how the pattern changes if it's 2.2 or 2.3
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well you know ENSO's main effect is due north and south of SSTA's, where the Hadley Cell and mid-latitude cell meet right?
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    If you consider it was the most -NAO season on record, and a Stronger Nino STJ, it's not that far fetched. Anyway my point is it's not different things happen if you turn up the heat, it's just bigger same.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think this is where meteorological logic differs from analog based opinions.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    A strong -QBO that season combined with Strong El Nino to give us several Stratosphere warmings, which corresponded with big -NAO events. A stronger El Nino may have actually given us stronger -NAO's (even though it was the most -NAO season on record since the 1800s, during a stronger El Nino). Nino 1+2 is almost cold there, that season. I don't think a max of those anomalies would have been bad at all. Actually, I think I would go higher on total in DC vs lower.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ray, suppose the orientation doesn't change, you just multiply the anomalies by x1.5.. do you think 09-10 would have been a bad Winter?
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Right.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    By weaker you mean in Nino 1+2 and 3?
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