Stormchaserchuck1

Very positive +NAO this March 33 of the last 46 March's have been +NAO (78%) It has been an anchor month for the decadal state. Jan, Feb, Dec have all been positive in the last 46 years too. Europe's skew of snowless Winters, and especially Germany, has been a little altered by the decadal NAO progression.

The SW heat ridge/drought started in 1995, and 1998 is when the -PDO began.. that SW pattern is amped max right now. I personally think we are still in -PDO general and the Southwest pattern also goes with +AMO. Solar Max may have changed things a bit though. I've looked at what 2 cold NE Winter's in a row means for year 3.. it's neutral, 50/50.

Sometimes there are anomalies.. 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 were cold Winters and the volcano should have made 91-92 lean colder.. a west-based Stronger El Nino. Sometimes it just doesn't go according to probability. It was also during +PDO general. I think the N. pacific subsurface is pretty important, so even if the short term PDO wanes/waxes the thermocline holds a longer term state.. bluewave has shown those N. pacific subsurface anomalies are record breaking warm right now, so I think -PDO tendency is probably favored until we see some consistency the other way there.

The Winter US Temp pattern is like this coming El Nino has been building for 2 years.. At +3std's 2 cold Winters in the NE/Warm SW and Rockies precede an El Nino temp pattern year 3

Good contrast setting up between the SW, US and Alaska this Winter. A little more than typical index-based correlations. I wonder if such a thing will flux the PNA in future years.

I'm curious to see if the N. Pacific PNA pattern corresponds with this April Kelvin wave. Research I have done in the pasts says there is some time-0 correlation.

500mb ridge maxed out >5970dm. Combination of that and lack of snowcover in the southern Rockies made a seemingly very anomalous situation more possible. Not saying it wasn't a big pattern break though.

^I've been surprised how cold Alaska has been this Winter relative to the 500mb pattern there. There hasn't been a lot of strong +EPO.

Yeah.. I mean Flagstaff never goes higher than 73 in March, then it hits 84 and has 4 days 80+. At 35N latitude I don't see why it can't do that, but still.

Let's see how this plays out. Imo, it's amping Nino 3/3.4 vs the far east

It's one of the localized events that gives me an accelerating global warming thought.

This is interesting.. this is March before a later in the year El Nino. Nice south-based +PDO orientation in the N. Pacific. Nino 4 also starts warming early, which we are seeing now Could be basin-wide

March +NAO.. 2026 will probably have ~+2 NAO. It precedes warm CONUS conditions the following Winter in the northern 1/2 fwiw

^ Stratosphere warming really busted with lagged -NAO probability.. for the 2nd year in a row in March. The November one worked though

The Earth's circulation isn't deviating that much. Things like the NAO still show Atlantic circulation mode, and although -NAO hasn't hit as hard with cold, +NAO has hit just as hard, harder with warmth. In the end, it evens out but you still have positive and negative modes to the index. Here's the last 333 consecutive months.. although ENSO is "warm", you can see by the Hadley Cell circulation that there is still a well defined "Nina-mode". Relative indexes work the same as the Earth still has 99.99% of it's general circulation in continuum.

I know, I'm not looking forward to the 1,000 posts about how "everything's warming in this new climate"

There's probably a 85% that any given place will be above average year-to-year, for DJFM (91-20 averages). I would have said 80% until this heat ridge hit the Mountain West and SW this cold season.

Yeah, definitely, they have a slight +PDO correlation too in the preceding late Spring/Summer The "other things driving" must have been really strong 2016-2024 because it bucked the warm ENSO/PDO correlation in that time. Those correlation SSTA's are really strong though in those preceding maps, then another pattern emerges in the Fall. I might have to break it down and do a manual index, implementing it for a Winter forecast this year. I'm glad you appreciate the value of the method.

^El Nino by itself is usually cooler in the Summer in the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Northeast Before a later in the year peak is stronger

In 2023 and 2024 the Atlantic SSTs were the warmest they have ever been.. I don't think we are in -AMO cycle, it's too soon off of that. In 2026 Atlantic hurricane season thread, I smoothed out long term AMO, and found it's still in ascending phase, although data is missing since 2023. Last year and this year in the overall trend look like just a small wave down.

Yes, ENSO state is connected. It has about 0.3 correlation between Nina/-WPO and Nino/+WPO. The EPO doesn't connect with SSTAs nearly as much. The EPO might be the hardest index to predict in advance.

C+/B-. I don't like dry and cold, which it was a lot. The 11" storm sticking around for a month was awesome though. The other 4 months were meh. I think it only snowed (flurries or more) 11 times. Edit: the early Dec storm overperformed and I got 7"! Loved that one, there were 20+ flashes of green lightning.

74 pretty easily. It's a little humid out

Warm and muggy today, mid 70s in March. It's hard to remember it's still just March as we've had so many of these days this month. The NAO is very positive, but there has been a less than ideal 500mb pattern for very warm days this month in the W. Pacific (+EPO/+WPO usually drives major March warm ups - the WPO hasn't been positive this month).

Pretty strong opposite correlation (-WPO) Sept-Nov 2025 Before +WPO Winter (opposite for -WPO) Clear pattern