Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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I've been getting warmer indicators on the Winter than a month ago. Will have to find a site that does SSTA for the whole May-Sept period -
The problem with that is, whatever is happening at the time is correlated to the linear rise in temperature. I would think there would just be more global high pressure, a more stable system - bigger swings does not jive with a total warming climate. 09-10 was the lowest NAO since the mid 1800s. I thought global warming would really inflate high pressure at the poles - but the opposite has happened over the last 11 years. Now it's swings or whatever that is the product of global warming. Something else I think is causing the mid latitude temps to rise relative to the poles.
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It just comes across like you think things like NAO, PNA, etc are altered from new Super El Nino's happening. We are probably rate of global warming x 2013-14 likely to see a Winter that cold again. Indices have not been on track since 2016 and that is a significant part of the NE warming trend. The 1970s were a big dip down in the late 1800s - 1960s global warming. No one is saying warming isn't happening but it's becoming too comfortable and too specific.
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"Points", "next level", "new threshold".. they are fictions of the mind. The mind likes structure. It also communicates more confidently when referring to it. There is no finite system that is baking out things when new El Nino's are hit. It's smooth - the global temperature rise is linear to localized warmings over a large enough sample.
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^You like to take small samples and apply absolutes to them. Every thing that happens isn't because global warming is happening. I think history shows us that when we have something like 5/6 consecutive La Nina's before this year, and >50% of La Nina's since 1998, it in every case reverses hard thereafter. We all predicted this 2 years ago. Solar Max +2 years is a pretty good warm ENSO correlation as well. What's the global temperature rise, +0.3-4c/yr for ENSO? That's probably the rate of warming. We've had mostly La Nina's since 1998. A few years ago we were hearing about how global warming was causing more La Nina's
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Looks like we start warming up around the 1st of Sept. The 1st half of the month could have a pretty big +anomaly.
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Partial Lunar Eclipse visible now
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Kind of strange to think a +2.4c El Nino has no effect on the N. Pacific and N. America because it isn't winter. We haven't had a strong-prolonged N. Pacific trough in 11 years.. since Winter 15-16. That trend has carried so far in 2026.
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May and August have o-k N Pacific correlations. They were both opposite this year. 3 months US averaged below average temps for El Nino warm season. All 3 months were above average. It's not the strongest, but there are pattern effects that aren't happening since the El Nino developed in April. I agree that it's 3-4x more relevant starting in like Oct-Nov.
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The El Nino is just stagnant over the Tropics right now? The cold season has much higher effects, but you typically do see some things now, or whenever a +2.4c ENSO event is happening, warm or cold season. That we've seen 7-0 N. Pacific ridges vs troughs since the El Nino officially began is somewhat of a leading indicator.. instead of your usual -120dm winter n. pacific anomaly, I'd say it's more likely to be around -30dm for the DJFM mean. Pacific vs Atlantic hurricane season has been El Nino so far.
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It's passive aggressive behavior for real. I personally like more language diversity in geography.
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History says ~Sept 25-30 is the time when it should start to develop, then all the time that follows. Correlation is weakest in Sept, then 2nd weakest in July. Actually June-Sept is like -0.15 H5 correlation max in the NPH region.
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^+QBO/east-based El Nino/-PDO history says could be quite warm in Dec. That type of H5 over Greenland and Alaska would be a record-breaking warm pattern in the NE in this day and age if it verifies (we haven't actually seen that pattern much in the cold season over the past few years, it's a 01-02 pattern).
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My point is that if mitchnick is saying the El Nino is not yet effecting the pattern, then you can say that no La Nina has effected the pattern ever.
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US isn't even America. It's so stupid. Does US even have authority to rename things America?
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Is there any truth to this? Are we going to get a Lunar Eclipse tonight?
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El Nino is higher than any other El Nino at this time by +17% There has never been a La Nina that has made it to -2.4c.
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Precip this July-Aug has been very similar to the 2017-2025 composite
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The El Nino is currently +2.4c, which is higher than any La Nina ever on record at any time of year.
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Didn't realize that it was so warm! All El Nino minus all La Nina analogs for August before this year
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July and August near records for US warmth. Completely different from El Nino analogs, which are typically cool. All El Nino minus all La Nina analogs for August before this year
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15-16 had a monster N. Pacific trough That 14-16 was a +PDO spike really gives some weight to the pdo correlation numbers.
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Wow, you forecasted a -PNA in 23-24. Congrats on that, I think that's a really good forecast. PNA region ended up having an anomaly of +45dm for DJFM
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We haven't had a +PNA month in 7 months. Recent winters have skewed very ridgey in the N. Pacific relative to ENSO. I mean I don't think this winter will have a la nina pattern but I would definitely not expect a N. Pacific vortex like 97-98, 82-83, 15-16 in the mean.
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I think that El Nino favors -EPO more than the historical analog composite has. May and October are good examples of this. EPO runs more Polar though than Hadley-mid latitude Cell meeting place, so the overall correlation/connection is lower. More random than your average El Nino year. I'd say it's 50/50. There has been -H5 this Summer 60-90N which since 2012 has switched for the cold season almost every time. -AO I think can sometimes run into -EPO in short durations.
