Stormchaserchuck1

Sometimes the OP will be the first to show an extreme/new solution, and a few days later the ensembles will trend toward it. We really need that -EPO ridge to hold strong and not start to phase out/weaken as we get closer.

Long range is so warm on the GFS because of +NAO Just when we change the Pacific.. we've had, Sept-Dec, 4 straight months of <-0.65 monthly NAO so let's see if it does phase shift.

That's probably rain for I-95. NW of I-95 it might be snow.

1st Jan storm last year that gave DC like 7" had a 50/50 low

But 15 seconds left with a timeout to spare.. the offense is moving the ball so well... you really are going to make a rookie kicker, who's longest FG all year is 52yds, on the road in Pittsburgh, so loud, kick a 40+ yd FG when he leads the league in erratic kickoffs, going out of bounds? You shouldn't say put it all on one play, but that call definitely costed Harbaugh his job.

The stats say go for it though, and that 99.9% of NFL coaches are too conservative in that regard. It's just frustrating when I see the numbers so clear, to have these big guys with tens of millions watching make the wrong call over and over. The one variable where coaches are too aggressive on is the 2-point attempt. It only works 31% of the time. So anything less than 50% is no unless it's a really special circumstance.

Yeah, that's probably more important. The SOI was positive 17 months in a row until Dec 2025 ended that streak, but for the first 15 months it was weak.. 0 to +10.. then we had 2 >+10 at the end, then it petered out. My ENSO subsurface monthly index is going to come in positive for Jan though.. not many Nina's that had warm subsurface in January. I'll have to see which ones had that. I know that testing all years gives more of a +PNA signal when the central-ENSO subsurface is warm.

We're not going to hit La Nina on the ONI. It's going to officially be "ENSO Neutral" for the 2nd straight year.

I'd put higher probability on it. Or the time afterward, Jan 20-30 period. It's not much of a risk that the N. Pacific ridge currently extending into Alaska and the Arctic circle on models will trend into -PNA, donsoutherland has done research that 45-day -PNA periods in the winter, like the one we just had flip to +PNA 80% of the time afterwards. Also, there is a kelvin wave starting to move warm water across the ENSO-subsurface, and I have found that correlates to more +pna conditions as it happens. Greater probability is that the N. pacific ridge ends up north with a low even undercutting it, vs the opposite, imo.

Please don't hire someone who doesn't go for it on 4th and 1

0z GFS ensembles starting getting cold around Jan 18th. Anything before that probably isn't going to do it.

Not really a torch in the mean 2 months after a -NAO December weights it a little cooler NAO has been -0.65 or lower 4 straight months

They need to extend Lamar and Zay Flowers in the offseason. I don't know how much cap room they have. Flowers his rookie year signed a contract for 4 years worth $14 million, which next season will be his last year on. And he's made the pro bowl twice. Nice draft pick!

I don't know, this looks kind of ugly to me in the mean. I think the only way those surface temps will verify is if we are right after a cold front, unless a few individual members are weighting the mean. Maybe those few outlier members will win and the Pacific ridge will trend more Polar? GEFS has more -WPO at 384hr so that's a little better. The ENSO subsurface is starting to warm with a kelvin wave, and I did research showing that, that actually correlates to more +PNA when the subsurface at -200m hits 180W. That should happen in the next few weeks.. Just using that favors less -pna and more +pna going into the extended, but that's just one method.

This doesn't look bad The jet stream is dry though. Still watching the late January period, because CPC has below average in the Northeast for January, and we are likely to be pretty solidly above by the 16th. 3-4 week on the CPC is also colder than average. It's looking like we won't have a -NAO, unless models are biased from the last 14 years of having Winter +NAO, which has happened already in Dec and early Jan. So we'll have to lift that n. pacific ridge into the EPO/WPO domain for the colder stuff to verify most likely.

Hopefully it stays north. Models have trended in the last few days to more of a N. Pacific ridge, the EPS is well south of the GFS/GEFS, and has higher verification scores I think. -PNA keeps the jet stream a little too far north, although if the ridge extends well into Alaska we can get some colder weather. I would love that though, -EPO's are the coldest pattern and I always wanted to experience a tropical-cutoff block! For big snowstorms though, a gulf of alaska/south of aleutian 500mb low pressure is the greatest correlation, along with a 50/50 low.

Good game, good season. I love the Ravens!

Looks like that's a +270dm anomaly on the mean, so given average model error from that range, we have a 50% chance of having +140dm> anomaly.. the hope is that it moves a little north, instead of staying over the n. pacific water.

Negative PNA is not what you want to see in January. In January it has a higher SE ridge correlation than other Winter months. Other guidance had been showing -EPO/-WPO, more of an arctic ridge than N. pacific ridge. Hopefully it trends back.

Right back to -PNA. Year of the La Nina.

0z EPS is much cooler than the GEFS in the extended

It was actually an impressive -WPO/-PNA hybrid December.. +300dm anomaly for the month is rare. -PNA doesn't go real warm in the Northeast in December And -WPO is cold in December (default is positive, so it's opposite) The combination of those two gave us almost perfectly the anomaly composition for the month. Although it is interesting that the Southwest and Lower Midwest were so warm.. even though the pattern supports a ridge there, it did go much more extreme than the usual correlation. 2021 also had a +300dm N. pacific ridge, although it was more RNA-oriented

A little rant on the PDO In Fall 2024, the PDO hit its lowest monthly reading since the mid 1800s. That easily carried a <-1 state through last Winter. This July, it crushed last Fall's record, hitting -4.18, ensuring another <-1 PDO Winter, regardless of what unfolds in the H5 pattern. The PNA so far this Winter since Dec 1st, has been negative every single day. CPC has that continuing through the 1st week of January, and what was previously looking like a bounce positive mid-month is not looking so sure with todays long range models holding a N. Pacific ridge. +PNA is our best coastal low pattern. From the gulf of mexico, to maine, Miller A's and Miller B's, +PNA is the way to bomb low pressures on the east coast. When the PNA is negative, that's a coastal high pressure pattern. This year, going into December, we had 21 of the last 29 months being +PNA! Since the 23-24 El Nino turned to negative-ENSO we still had 17 of 25 months +PNA. It was looking like we could possibly see a +PNA Winter! 2018-2024 had the most -PNA February and March, for a 7 year period, by 140%! On all records, the highest 7-consecutive year anomaly was -NAO in January 1960's at +95dm.. then we hit +140dm for a 7-year period Feb-March -PNA 2018-2024. The PDO is in a decadal negative state, and it's really peaking right now. I was hoping after the 23-24 El Nino we would start moving away from that, but it looks like there is still long ways to go..

This has to be the most boring Winter I've experienced model tracking-wise. The southern stream is dead and we are in an "in between" pattern all the time. At least when it's warm that's exciting because it's one side of a wave. This is just endless nothingness. I guess I should be thankful for the one storm in early Dec.

I'm kind of concerned about the end of the 18z GEFS in what is suppose to be our colder time.. the N. Pacific High pressure extends south and west, giving us more -PNA. The Atlantic has a south-based +NAO. Thankfully it has time to change, as other forecasting agencies and long range products are showing more of a 500mb pattern favorable for cold.