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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Right, I'm just running all the data (73 years +events) and showing that in the data there isn't really a difference.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not much of a May PMM difference between Nino 4, 3.4 and 1.2 based later-in-the-year El Nino's. If anything it's probably strongest for Nino 4
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Again, +2 years after a Solar Max correlates with El Nino at 0.2 (57%). Here is the Winter composite +2 years after Solar Max There were/are 3 things going for El Nino this year: 1. We had 5/6 La Nina years (RONI). History says ENSO balances that out in the next 1-3 years, 2:1 El Nino vs La Nina tendency. 2. We had a Strong El Nino 3 years ago (23-24). History says that there is a "2nd wave", as similar event happens vs dissimilar 2:1, 3-5 years after Strong ENSO event. 3. Solar Max +2 years is a pretty strong El Nino composite:
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Phase shift.. it will be interesting to see if the N. pacific low responds. So far there are no signs of it on long range ensembles, even though ENSO usually correlates with it pretty strongly in the NPH area in May
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's pretty close to average throughout the year - slight uptick in Nov and Dec to above avg. Nov-Feb of strongest El Nino's:
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    0.15 correlation, if average is 4.00", that's 4.60"
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    1.5-2" of rain for half the month isn't bad.. it's about average. pre-El Nino May's are nothing significant in the MA
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    For 1 month. December, Feb, March, and April were all -PNA You believe global warming is a main driver of dominant patterns? I think we have more of a background -ENSO/-PDO state so it may not be like some of the classic Strong Nino's but I don't see the relevance in "new global temperature 3 years apart" aside from general warming.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Don't forget 2023, the last Strong El Nino, had 20 named storms, which is tied for 4th highest all time. PDO was negative in 2023. We haven't had a single +PDO month in the 2020s
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    +9F was kind of a weak scale anyway
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    MEI vs Nino 3.4
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Temperature thing on my computer says it's 82 here!
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thunderstorm season has been shifting to late June/July vs the Spring over the last several years
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not a bad way to spend a Tuesday morning!
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nino 1+2 was almost 0.0 in 09-10.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    And since November every composite for "before an El Nino the next year" has worked out perfectly - probably the best 6 month running composite match on record. It may take a +4.0c ONI El Nino to dominate a N. Pacific low like 82-83 or 97-98 though
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    But the big constant-persistent N. Pacific low has gone extinct as we've gone through time. Whether that is global change or a product of the -PDO/-ENSO background state, the fact that the MEI is still negative for April tells me that the major strong Nino N. Pacific pattern may not be there that strong this year.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    My guess is we don't see a monster North Pacific low like 82-83 and 97-98, but we'll see. The "negative ENSO background state" appears to still be very strong.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Daily ONI is already passing +1.0c in Nino 3.4 and subsurface is warmest ever only below 1997, normal 65F areas on the thermocline are 80F right now. It's going to at least go Strong. SOI is the biggest counter-indicator.. it hasn't had more than a few very negative days.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Even in 23-24 the SOI didn't go very negative... it's been following the PDO in the 2020s where it's leaning positive most of the time Only 16 months of -SOI since July 2020. 77% +SOI during that time Everyone was saying early in the year where we can't have a Strong Nino so close to the last Strong Nino since ENSO is at least partially about balance. Check out this RONI streak.. we are evening this out, imo
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah let's see if the STJ juices up this year with cold ENSO background state probably still in effect. 23-24 Winter was very wet but Nov 2023 was extremely dry
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah -- it was pretty close to a uniform La Nina pattern last Winter in the US. Combine that with pre-El Nino conditions for the year after, and you have about a perfect composite.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I didn't realize it was such a strong La Nina STJ pattern
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe I'm missing something but we still don't have H5 monthlies?
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