Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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You sure about that? That seems kind of unbelievable. Would shatter some records. I know Tyhoon Dolphin recently got down to 5430dm or something in its core. -
Something to think of: With the aurora borealis making it so close to the equator for the first time in 500+ years, a few years ago, and this Record El Nino by +20% occurring 2 years after that, is there a connection? Are we possibly underestimating just how big this solar max was, or maybe the Earth's magnetic field is weaker? Solar Cycle +2 years before 2020 Just a coincidence? I know ENSO historically "evens out", and this one is "evening out" Nina's going back to 1998.
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TAO/TRITON has reached +10c in the subsurface! First time I think this has ever happened (someone correct me if I'm wrong). That's +18f. Wonder if we'll reach +20F.
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Thanks! It looks like Dec 1957 was +7.4 QBO and Strong Nino That's the only ONI>1.0, QBO>+6 analog pre-1979. Dec 1970 Mod Nina, -17 QBO. Sometimes strong -PNA patterns have prevailed in Dec in Nina/-QBO. I could see how this would have been cold if not for the massive Aleutian block - notice the +150dm -NAO. (QBO is Strat - so more AO connection).
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You can actually make your own custom index, factoring in global warming, which is about +0.2-3 for Nino 3.4. In other words, 0.0 neutral is now with global warming +0.2-3. The point of RONI is to even it out, so you can track mid latitude influences more, but there are a lot of extra guidelines with it I think that make it vary month-to-month. Just factoring in global warming skew is helpful for seeing what pure ENSO event is like. On the seasonal model forecasts, it usually shows the timeframe somewhere on the top of the map. It's usually 1 month, or 3-months. The CPC officially uses RONI: Climate Prediction Center - CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO
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^QBO data only goes back to 1979, but add that and Dec is even warmer! I'm really curious to see what this Dec will look like.
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Dec-Jan ONI has higher correlation for Feb than Feb ONI. I don't disagree that El Nino's have been historically cold in Feb though. In fact, I would say the stronger, the greater the cold signal should be. 2018-2025 however was the most -PNA on record for Feb by almost +50%! I'd watch the PDO there.
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^Just Fwiw, the last 2 years a few runs the CFS has shown -38F anomalies in the NW, US for the month of Dec both times. It didn't happen lol
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Oh, ok. Fwiw, I kind of saw it coming.
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I'm not sure I understand your point? You think this year is different from the 2017-25 average because you had a localized thunderstorm?
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Lower midwest too. El Nino STJ has long tracking moisture storms across the lower part of the country.
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It's a pretty smoothed out map though. >1"/month over a 9-year period for like 50% of a region is pretty strong! If you go through year-by-year, almost every Jul-Aug has been above average in the eastern 1/2
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Green to neutral areas. At least relative to average. The 21-0 +1.11 monthly NAO streak means we will have to buck a strong trend though.
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^CFS, CANSIPS, and ECMWF are all showing a Winter -NAO. We haven't really had a DJFM -NAO in 14 years. We've had 21 winter months >+1.11 and 0 months <-1.11 in that time. Going for it: N. Atlantic SSTA's May-Aug so far are slightly negative. El Nino does generally support a warmer Stratosphere. Going against it: Decadal cycle is still near a peak. Descending Solar Cycle (+1-5 years after Solar Max +NAO is favored, and this last Max was a pretty high one). +QBO. I think a -AO for the Winter is more probable than -NAO, but it was only 17 years ago that the lowest NAO on record since the 1800s happened during an El Nino. I also think that seasonal models are overestimating the effects of -NAO. The Pacific is usually the stronger player, and since 2019 that has been the case at +0.25 correlation vs before.
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I just don't know that it is an El Nino STJ change to the drier cycle that we are in, yet. August has also been wet.
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July has been super wet since 2017. Wettest month of the year imby. 2026 followed the same pattern.
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It looks like the streak of -SOI days has ended 11 Aug 2026 1016.05 1013.30 6.86 -21.05 -22.10 10 Aug 2026 1014.90 1012.95 2.00 -22.57 -22.32 I've noticed over the years that when an ENSO variable wanes, other parts of its correlation pick up (more +PNA pattern for the next 13 days).. weird.
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Yeah, this Fall/Winter will be interesting to see if NPH trough develops. It hasn't really happened since 15-16. +SOI correlation was a match the last 2 Summers as well.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Year 2 has lower correlation numbers, but is still generally mild -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
It's always hard to break record, but Summer 2027 has the potential to be warm, being post-El Nino (one that will break the post-1948 record by 15-20%). This has nothing do with global warming:
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
During the Strongest El Nino on record for July, too. The correlation isn't nearly as strong in the Summer, but generally La Nina's are the warmer Summer pattern, historically. -
I think even if it were a Weak El Nino the model would show N. Pacific trough for the Winter. Not saying we aren't going to get it, just noticed that 100% of the time it predicts ENSO climo.
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I'm surprised how bad seasonal models are. They just default to ENSO climo it seems. They were way wrong on +100-120dm Aleutian ridge in the DJF mean the last 2 Winters. 23-24 they were also horrible showing all El Nino stuff. 18-19 Weak El Nino they had opposite US temp anomaly pattern. Sometimes other things besides ENSO have effect, I guess they just can't predict that very well right now. This year is certainly a Winter that could go with something on top of ENSO, given how weak the NPH has responded so far.
