Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Isaiah Likely 11 catches, 2TDs. Meanwhile Mark Andrews sucks. It's a good thing I could draft Likely for my fantasy team at least
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There would have to be rapid ENSO cooling for that to happen. -
Modoki is ridiculous. This is the strongest east-based event on record. The subsurface which moves west to east is further west than all Super Nino analogs, which means the east-based nature of the event has staying power. The ECMWF still has Nino 1+2 at +3c next May
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Strongest El Nino on record normalizes the normal La Nina in the equilateral Pacific
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They verify more often than they do not
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CPC has us in below average precip in the 3-4 Week.
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ATL is favored by 3, but I'm not convinced they have a QB. Last year the Ravens only two wins vs >.500 teams were with Huntley as QB and Minter did do a good job in the preseason calling defensive plays, not ready to give up on that yet.
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Subsurface right now does not support it eroding from the east
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I thought temps in the 60s along the Gulf Coast while the hurricane is making landfall is a pretty good affirmation for cooler conditions in the wintertime.
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The JMA last had a good Winter forecast in 2013.
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Seasonal models have a strong default ENSO bias. Pretty sad really, these are the front leading forecasting tools. They have a mean of like -100 to -120dm for DJFM, which is climo Super Nino. I probably give that a 5% chance of happening, completely out of sync with recent patterns.
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I disagree with a monster N. Pacific trough in the DJFM mean, in the reality of what will happen.
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It's a little dot, but +12c has appeared in the subsurface on TAO/Triton for the first time ever. That's +22F, 58f would be 80f.
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October NAO has reversed for the Winter the last 5 times, last 5 years. This is on top of an already established opposite correlation 1948-2020. Through the 25th, Oct NAO looks to be ~+0.80-0.90
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Warm season after +ENSO.. This is all El Nino minus all La Nina analogs since 1948 +8 months.. global warming has little to do with this. What a strong correlation (Summer 2027)!
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^Yeah, nice post, I've been pointing out how the +AO has been following warm season 2024 and 2025, after the Solar Max. Your graph shows those 3 strong + periods. Summer 2018 too, that was followed by the most CONUS -PNA El Nino on record 18-19.
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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to ORH_wxman's topic in Climate Change
We should see a steep dropoff in the 2030s. The leveling has been upheld by -H5 in the warm season pretty much every year since 2016 except for 2019. Two strong correlations that I wonder if they will change if the arctic ice starts melting exponentially again: -PDO CONUS precip July-Aug, substantially above normal since 2017. -
Wow did the -PDO come back Check out the differences in the Pacific between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres
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64yd FG! His longest all of last season was 52yds. Tucker's NFL record for a while was 66yds.
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^5-1-3 Opposite for + Oct NAO states. About matches the 80-year composite which is 55% opposite.
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I mean do they have to be going for it from their own 10 with 1:00 up 21-7 and getting the ball in the 2nd half? I get the aggressiveness last week was good but not against TEN and Home lol
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Yeah, but they have so many positive things happening? They are beating the spread for the game in the 1st half.
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NAO has a pretty good opposite correlation between October and the Winter. It's the only month of the year where that is true! Actually since "discovering that" in 2005, it's flipped 13/22 times - monitoring it future-tense vs past-tense. The last 5 years had -NAO Octobers. The last 5 years had +NAO Winters Lowest NAO Winter on record, 09-10, had a +1.51 Oct NAO. The Pacific usually holds the same pattern between Oct and the Winter, although sometimes in El Nino's the EPO flips historically, not sure if that's true over more examples.
