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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Might be a coincidence because QBO is a Stratosphere index, but +QBO/El Nino has the highest correlated above average Dec I have ever seen. We are going to be strong in both signal this year.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    We have had a long term -PDO/La Nina pattern, call it a decadal pattern 1998-2025. It seems to have strengthened since 2016, and now in 2026 it's diverging from the S. Hemisphere/equator and the Northern Hemisphere. Up until now you could have said it was either, ENSO or PDO. The Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell expanding during the time makes me think it was more of a decadal ENSO phase. But now with the N. Pacific significantly diverging from the SOI/ENSO SSTs,,, maybe it's something else related to the PDO. Or my personal theory is cold northern Arctic Summers could have a lot do with it. We also had 100-year low Solar 2001-2020. The max during that time was weakest since the early 1800s.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Everyone was saying 1998-2025 SOI was such that it is probably biased positive now. This is about as respectable as a downward drop as you will see. Here's the last 2 days.. 90-day and 30-day are both below -20 now. 26 Jul 2026 1011.41 1015.60 -31.64 -25.66 -20.20 25 Jul 2026 1011.59 1015.45 -29.61 -25.54 -20.06 This is turning into a top-5 -SOI event since the 1800s, so yeah it's probably not biased positive with AGW.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really liking to see this -SLP 60-90N pattern for the whole Summer so far. Since 2012 that has reversed to Winter AO almost everytime. -AO with Nino STJ could be the fuel to give us big snow chances. However, without a monster low in the N. Pacific it may be more about timing and "threading the needle".
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm impressed at how much further west the subsurface warm pool extends vs 1997. This could mean two things: 1) There is more fuel for this Nino to go stronger - and perhaps stronger in Nino 3 2) The "Strong La Nina snap-back" for 27-28 may not be as probable as some may think.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, you know what's going on. I'd give the % chance of something like that happening like 5-10% right now.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    @40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I can't believe how dry last Winter was in the STJ areas! I've been thinking maybe RONI should be -1.0 to -1.5 vs ONI.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was going to say AMO is the only thing you didn't cover besides Asia Mountain Torque lol You could focus on S. Hemisphere Winter pattern in relation to current El Nino too
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    -H5 over Greenland may be a little too cold for the Winter I think. I have found that since 2012/13, the Summer SLP state 60-90N has reversed for the Winter AO almost every time! This worked out great last Winter. We have seen +AO pretty much every day since May and models have it for the next 15 days. I think this favors -AO tendency in the Winter.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    You are talking about SSW's, but if you include everything, total cold season 10mb (SSWs are probably like 10% of total composite) El Nino/-QBO trumps
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Very nice write up Ray! Good work. You should put that link in your signature. I was hoping for Winter forecast maps at the end of your post I see why you always refer to your outlooks, because you put so much thought into them! The only thing I would like to say is that in the mean -QBO/El Nino has the most 10mb warming, not La Nina/-QBO.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    0.54. 50% chance of DJFM NAO being within +0.54. I devised that in 2005, and since then have been 11-10 vs the std, so about where was originally estimated. 16-5 at getting the sign, + or - correct. Problem this year is I'm not going to be able to make exact numbers without Daily Climate composites. Maybe someone has a site of SSTAs for the whole period May-Sept?
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    If I get into the 50s tonight, that will be something like 4/6 days in the 50s at the hottest time of year! Also Billings, MT just hit 111 a few weeks ago, breaking their all time high of 108.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    August historically has a pretty good correlation with ENSO's peak later in the year. It's expected to become the strongest on record by Dec and here's the preceding Augusts: There is some -NAO in the mix but right now it's looking like this usually highly correlated month will not be anything special below-average-wise. PNA has been negative 6 straight months including July, and that is the source of the problem.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC says above average comes back
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Something to look out for is how cool October usually is in El Nino PDO has opposite correlation though, and it's strongest month of the year is October so we'll see how the battle of -PDO vs Super Nino goes, going forward.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    We are mostly getting this cool down because of -NAO, and less to do with the Pacific (El Nino's greatest effect). There is a trough in the GOA for a little while, but it's still not canonical El Nino in the Pacific.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm just saying... in the last 3 Winter's it's come within +0.25 of actual DJFM NAO each time. That can range from +2 to -2 so that's pretty good. It's hard to tell exact number this year because what I based it on, NCAR, has been discontinued, but based on TT dailies, it is negative right now.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually the cold blob AGW based is just south of Greenland, which is a +NAO tendency. I'm pointing out a cold pool south of New Foundland. Here is the correlation composite Here is the trend in global temperature. The cold blob does not overloap my -NAO favored area (above map is default positive so it's opposite for -NAO predictor). If anything the Atlantic cold blob is a Winter +NAO favored tendency, by a lot actually. Furthermore, my May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTA index has not had a net -NAO prediction in a long time. I discovered the method in 2005, and have been practicing it every year since then. It is 15-5 at getting the Winter sign correctly, and within my estimated 0.54SD, it has performed 11-9. So it's not some random thing that I am assume - I have been testing it and it has been working.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Oh I thought it was rhetorical lol
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't call it big +NAO. It looks pretty neutral as a Winter average January the coldest month of the year was -NAO 97-98 had potential to be a good Winter imo. The N. pacific trough extending north into +EPO, further north than mean of other El Nino's, tipped that one warm. Remember the EPO is the most sensitive and volatile region for CONUS temps. For north in latitude isn't necessarily as connected to ENSO as Hadley/mid-latitude cell.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's really been a story for a long time now. Since 2012, Summer Arctic Summer SLP anomaly (60-90) has reversed for the following Winter almost every time! Gawx showing cold records consistently happening there this warm season is a strong signal for Winter -AO I believe.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Decadal trend lines of NAO are pretty linear with what's happening. We've had pretty much 14 straight +NAO Winter's, at the height of this decadal +NAO phase. Some think it's associated with lagged +AMO. Over the next several decades the "long term cold blob" will likely be somewhere else or reverse.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    +2.03c on this date is greater than +1.7c in 1997 and 2015 at this time for highest since 1950 (+16%!)
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