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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty good lagged time correlation between a Solar Max and ENSO cycle (El Nino after Solar max, La Nina after Solar min) 0-time is very slight correlation +1year is stronger +2years is stronger! ^Not a bad correlating map between ENSO and the Solar Cycle there, 73 years of data
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like NOAA adjusted October 2024 and July 2025's PDO numbers down slightly. I believe Oct 24 was -3.85, now it's -3.24, and I think July 2025 was <-4, now it's -3.83 March 2026 has been adjusted from -1.44 to -1.2
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC is disregarding it completely, but their seasonals have not been better than C+/B- grade as you and I have assessed, over the last 15 years.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    My understanding of the PDO is that it's a 50/50 index. They have it as one area vs another area. Unless AGW is targeting an area specifically - which it is probably not on that scale, it still holds value as you could just as likely see the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast of America have warm water as Japan has seen in recent years. In the 2014-2016 +PDO blip, those other areas did become record warm.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks for the reminder! May DCA: -0.7 NYC: -0.6 BOS: -0.6 ORD: -1.8 ATL: -0.1 IAH: +0.5 DEN: +3.1 PHX: +2.4 SEA: +3.6
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    They must calculate in different areas.. Dec 2025 had a >+300dm anomaly which is extreme, only rivaling years like Dec 2021 so the exact coordinates of calculation makes a big difference in the reading since the ridge/block was "on the edge".
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    23-24 wasn't always connecting with 50mb as there was some disconnect between the upper and lower atmosphere but the mean for the Winter was pretty warm at 10mb Nov didn't have the warming like 2025
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    January 2024 had a -NAO and some cold. The -NAO kept linking up with SE ridge 2018- March 2023, then in Jan 2024 it started to occur with more of an East coast trough, and the same -NAO/EC trough pattern has happened 24-25 and 25-26.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually recently Stratosphere warmings have been the anti-thesis: 23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings and a warm 10mb for the Winter and was the warmest winter on record for CONUS. March 2026 had a Stratosphere warming in the first half of the month, and that was the most extreme warm air temp anomaly month ever recorded for CONUS. The Nov 2025 Stratosphere warming preceding cold is actually the counter trend to what we've seen in the last 3 years, although I know Gawx posted some interesting things when it happened like 9/9 following January's are colder than average. Cold Winter Stratosphere's have correlated with more +AO's in the last 5-6 years, so that part is working.. but March 2025 and March 2026 did not have SSW impacts at all on the NAO.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually I can see it after going over the maps.. the slight + reading was correct because of further SW
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    No way December was +WPO
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. They don't always mean cold - actually the composite mean of top 20 warm 10mb Winters (Nov-March) is above average temps in the Northeast, US. Biggest pattern is shorter term lagged -NAO with peaks, which can occur +months early in the cold season to +weeks mid/later in the cold season.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it was May 8 2003. What a Winter! Started snowing in October 2002 4x. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, it was either May 2 2002, or May 8 2002. It did snow one year on May 8 though.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll take that the Nov Stratosphere warming effected in 60+ days, but not the March one effecting late April NAO. March is typically +15 days, while Nov can be +40-45 days as a mean (but can range from +15-65 days).
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    TAO/Triton trying to pop +5c subsurface below Nino 1+2. It might be taking shape in the east over the next few weeks. Snowman19 was right about the Kelvin wave making it all the way across.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    New CPC monthly outlook is going with El Nino precip pattern
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    May 8 is the date of the latest in the year I've ever seen snow here
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    As the Kelvin Wave has continued to progress east, TAO/Triton has +4-5c anomalies now under Nino 1+2. Should be interesting to see if it surfaces in the east, along the American coast in the next few weeks. Still to be determined whether it's an east-based, west-based, or basin-wide event- I'm going toward basin-wide.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    -NAO has been correlating with an East Coast trough more 23-24, 24-25, 25-26 vs 18-19 to 22-23. NAO is a little more important this coming Winter, I think.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    54 and light rain. At least everything is green
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Days with cool temps usually don't do much severe wx wise in the area. This is 3x this season where they had risk with 50s and 60s and it amounted to nothing.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Was it July 2018 where we got 18"? One of those July's, I remember it raining like crazy Over the years our thunderstorm season has shifted from the Spring to late June and July.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty neutral here
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    What would you say is the chance of a continued El Nino in 27-28? 5%? 10%? I would say 5-10%
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's probably an error. I haven't played around with it yet, but I will probably start keeping a record to see if there is an advantage vs the market. May is 62F - I'm going to say below.
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