Stormchaserchuck1

74 pretty easily. It's a little humid out

Warm and muggy today, mid 70s in March. It's hard to remember it's still just March as we've had so many of these days this month. The NAO is very positive, but there has been a less than ideal 500mb pattern for very warm days this month in the W. Pacific (+EPO/+WPO usually drives major March warm ups - the WPO hasn't been positive this month).

Pretty strong opposite correlation (-WPO) Sept-Nov 2025 Before +WPO Winter (opposite for -WPO) Clear pattern

Western Pacific and Indian Ocean seems to definitely lead Winter WPO, SSTA-wise.

As we progress more into the Fall the Indian Ocean SSTAs are a good indicator of the WPO setting up for the Winter. Check out the early season lead though... Pretty strong May-July You can make an index with the N Pacific cold pool at -0.4 vs Indian Ocean and ENSO +0.5 and have a 80% probability indicator for Winter WPO.

Mid latitudes are kind of on fire the last few years.. I would just like to see a trough 45N in the Pacific

Yeah, North Atlantic SSTAs and tripole or not is also a good indicator.. a few things that are determined in the summer.

You will tend to get more of an Aleutian low, which drops a trough into the eastern US. I guess the west would still be quite warm in that scenario.

Believe it or not Summer sea-level pressure 60-90N is a great lead for what kind of upper latitude pattern will happen in the Winter.. since 2012 it's flipped every single time. We want negative SLP June-August

+QBO/east-based El Nino and -PDO is a very warm Winter composite.. it's early and those things can change (Nino could be more west-based, look at how Nino 4 is currently warming.. and PDO may rise through the year? - I don't know, Feb was <-1.00)

If we can get the western regions to amp up, these are our most western weighted strong +ENSO events since 2000.. this pattern is phasing out over the course of the last few decades though.

March 2026 might be the most +NAO March on record since 1950. Look at how that goes with El Nino later in the year..

23-24 was the only one since 2005? (I don't know, but I don't think any Winter since then beat 97-98 or 01-02). If I get a big ++NAO signal from N. Atlantic Summer SSTA's, I think warmest Winter on record could be in the cards.

02-03 had more -EPO and -WPO. You pointed out yesterday positive phases of these indexes has gone with basin-wide El Nino's, and especially east-based.

You've mentioned 02-03 a few times but that was a major west-based Nino. I don't think we're going to have that orientation this year, and the Pacific is still in a -ENSO state, left over from what has been that phase generally since 2016. The Mountain West hitting >+10F anomalies for a 4-5 month period this Winter honestly scares me about cold Winter prospects next year.

There might be a tendency to exaggerate very favorable conditions, and immediate jump to Super Nino vs something Moderate or even Strong.. like I've previously posted, the March SOI has never been this high in a Moderate+ Nino later in the year. Now there's only 9 examples and I'll have to test it back before 1950, but things are less than ideal right now, although SSTAs are warming pretty fast. Just some random thoughts this morning. Nino 4 also has a steady long term uptrend since 1950, more uniform than other regions.. that Nino 4 is already +0.4 and WWBs happening in the west, may propel that to some warmer conditions this year.

Yikes 11 hours since a response in this forum, 12pm on weekday. Tenn valley is the only forum that has a longer posting drought. They are saying I'll get up to 74 degrees tomorrow. Not bad for March, huh?

I see what you're saying.. for some reason I thought Nino was more +PDO-like, with a ridge overtop the N. pacific trough. I think in the 1895-1950 dataset they are a little more neutral or negative EPO/WPO

Winter 23-24 did act like a Super Nino in terms of precip. although November was dry

The PDO is a 50/50 index, half warm vs half cold or visa-versa.

The 23-24 Winter warmth was not all because of Strong El Nino. It's like saying 01-02 and 97-98 match if you compare US Temp maps. There were different patterns leading to the same localized outcome. The N. Pacific is the main region effected by ENSO, and the N. Pacific pattern was relatively weak in 23-24. That's why the RONI worked better than ONI that year. That's why the RONI is being used. The +WPO was a main driver of 23-24, it just matched corresponding US El Nino temp patterns, but not necessarily because of the same reasons (unless you can explain why +wpo is el nino - I think it's more of a -PDO/cold ENSO pattern) - The N. pacific high was not that effected in 23-24.

A lot of the warmth in 23-24 Winter was from +WPO. A little harder to connect that to ENSO. Beyond that, are you saying that El Nino has an anomaly relative to global warming, or it's just global warming points - everything is warming everywhere? Does the same work in reverse for La Ninas?

Gawx has pointed out that March 2026 will likely be the most +NAO month of March since 1950. Surprisingly, rolled forward to April and May is not a warm composite April May March to May

Big time warm water is getting going in the western-subsurface. Could help to push the Nino a little further west if it stays under Nino 3.4 and surfaces Nino 4 is warming

Yes, correct. Neutral/-QBO would be higher than nina/-qbo and Neutral/+QBO would be lower than nino/+qbo.