Stormchaserchuck1

I still have full snowcover. This was just taken

560dm ridge over DC?.. hmm might have a tough time cooling down

I think temps are going to be an issue

^Pretty warm look. Models haven't really been verifying that pattern this Winter though - let's see if it holds as we get closer, but +nao/+epo combo can be pretty warm and sustained for a little bit of time.

Transition to El Nino should be fast

It's been 13 years since the last max.. You would think we would start moving toward loss exponentially again. Big difference has been cold 500mb and SLP over the Arctic in the warm season. Last strong High pressure Summer pattern was 2019.

Kind of hard to say. A lot of energy on the "X-ing" sound. Wouldn't be surprised if they start saying "maxin"

I mean, yeah, this doesn't look so bad. Much better than it did a few days ago. But sometimes when temps bust 5-10F warmer with an oncoming ridge, this trends less favorable in the next bit of time.

I don't think it's broadbrushed like that. You keeping pointing out anomalies, I'm saying that the mean is X. I'm basing this on 73 years x 28 days, so 2,044 analogs: So if our average high is mid 40s, that's upper 40s to near 50 on the mean. the average of 2,044 analogs.

That's what a -PNA SE ridge does though [map default is positive, so -pna is opposite] - High pressure correlation The amplified H5 could shear it out, or give you a 38F and rain day. low pressure system is really secondary to H5 pattern. My point is that in tracking, I don't see these downstream effects fully factored into medium range models.

If it happens, it's probably a rainstorm Ceder Rapids, Iowa hit 70 today High was 65F in Chicago, breaking their old daily record of 58F Milwaukee, Wisconsin hit 63F, smashing their old record of 56F That ridge is going to move east tomorrow. Then there is nothing major changing about the pattern from now to then. When -PNA's go poleward, which we have for a few days with the threat, there is some cold air behind a cold front, but it's not that strong and the overall pattern of a jet stream north stays generally in control. Maybe it's some wet snow and upper 30s as the best case scenario. But a lot of times when temps are busting high with an oncoming ridge, the storm just ends up getting sheared out or weak.

Warm pattern setting up for the 1st week of March.. strong ensemble signal for long range

I just know what people were posting here in the storm thread. They were showing like 2-4" in DC and Baltimore as late as last night! It was obvious 5+ days ago that this was a rainstorm.

Yeah.. I've seen them be constantly wrong since appearing on model pages. NWS doesn't even use them. 3 days ago I think they were showing 11" of snow here on the ensemble mean! I don't know why they are so flawed- it's suppose to be a new model. There have been bulletins I think saying don't use them.

For those interested in the climate indexes discussion: check out 2026-2027 El Nino thread

I find this to be an good coincidence -- I say coincidence because the QBO is a Stratosphere index. But since the QBO 30mb data started in 1979, every single December (6) in QBO >+5 and ENSO +El Nino -- has had the same anomaly temperature pattern. There is a >80% chance this will be this upcoming December (+QBO/+ENSO). Not only is every map the same, but they are strong anomalies in the Northeast and Great Lakes in every example. Will be interesting to see what happens in December 2026: Following January in +QBO/El Nino: The map skews warmer for El Nino because the +QBO state favors a stronger Stratosphere Polar Vortex. This has correlation with +AO in the +0-day. Not a definite constant, but a higher average in the mean (deep 10mb SPV) -- El nino by itself correlates with more High pressure in the Stratosphere.

It's basically a fiction thread if all you're going to be doing is posting long range AI snow maps.

I didn't realize the 1970s were our most snowless decade until this one. I guess the cold/dry thing is bigger than you would think.

NAO's lowest Winter (DJFM) reading since 2010-2011 was -0.24. 14/15 Winter's were >0 NAO. Months with Winter NAO >1.11 were 19 positive, and 0 negative since 2010-11. That's a significant piece to the puzzle - we are max +NAO decadal for the last 15 years. Add in the strong -PNA that we have seen Feb-March 2018-2026 and it starts to make a little more sense. Not to say that the average snowfall hasn't dropped, but it's not as big as it appears.

Ok.. yeah unfortunately going through and making custom indexes probably yields the greatest correlation value. That's what I did for the Stratosphere and AO/NAO.

CPC isn't perfect too.. this pattern last Winter was called +PNA. This would have been "positive" on your graph. 2025 1 15 0.8425661297669382 2025 1 16 0.6292797257596462 2025 1 17 0.3591812956820121 2025 1 18 0.2963853705652808 2025 1 19 0.25645632216650666 2025 1 20 0.19665558838216474 2025 1 21 0.16494891370677975 2025 1 22 0.3096868402976654 2025 1 23 0.16090618641248808 2025 1 24 0.090735 2025 1 25 -0.00812 2025 1 26 -0.00391 2025 1 27 0.1299644364430 1287 2025 1 28 0.058971 2025 1 29 0.075685 2025 1 30 0.22591144673920 158 2025 1 31 0.28769816664388287 2025 2 1 0.23227473560905743 2025 2 2 0.061725 2025 2 3 -0.15733 2025 2 4 -0.14046 2025 2 5 0.22531992513175264

Are you using the DM or CPC indexes? The CPC balances and evens it all out, so negative is just as probable as positive. Side note, but they are really moving toward RONI for ENSO monitoring: Climate Prediction Center - CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO

Can you do it with >1std to the index pattern? I know sometimes a good gulf of alaska low pressure pattern will be called +EPO.

^I don't see + - ++. Are you sure you aren't calling the last one +PNA the opposite?