Stormchaserchuck1

SREF looks north

^I've done that exercise too many times over the years lol Here's the monthly PNA data: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table 65-66 and 72-73 were the greatest anomalies.. -PNA.

Very cool that it's correlating with a good pattern for the 2nd time this Winter

In Strong ENSO events the PNA usually holds the same state through Dec-Jan-Feb and sometimes March though

Yes, you pointed that out way early and it was correct. If I recall correctly, it was strong like, 10/10?

9z SREF way north early fwiw

It's important to know what ENSO does as a first point. There is a North Pacific High correlation (+NOI in La Nina)... when you get a strong +PNA pattern in January... that's not La Nina impacting. I do wonder why Larry got that like 10/10 of negative ENSO -PNA Dec's went +PNA in Jan since 1980. It's right, but that's not what La Nina does. I think it has something to do with the Kelvin wave associated with warmth spreading to the central-ENSO-subsurface.

Yeah, I am pleasantly surprised with them. It's very cliche on these boards or some people's schtick to say that forecasts are no good more than 5 days out, or stress how bad the 2 week forecasts are, etc.. in reality, the field has improved. CPC does a pretty good job in their 3-4 week and monthly forecasts from what I have seen. Also their long range stuff pretty much paints a picture 1 year out and in the updates every month there are pretty much minor changes. I will continue to keep track of, if their forecasts are better than the Futures and Commodities market.. in my experience so far they are. Gawx also predicted it, saying that the NG price won't react until well into the forecast period, a week or so before the cold hit - that's what happened. It dropped, a lot actually, early Jan, then is up now 23% in the last 2 days. Good job CPC and Larry (+PNA January hit, too)!

Already working on it

Did anyone see how far north the 3z SREF is at the end of its run? Even gives us some snow Friday

Sometimes they take the cold in the next 25 days and run that out. I don't think the surface will be that cold if that Pacific H5 comes to be. They seem to want to make west-based -NAO the dominant pattern, but almost all the time the Pacific has more weight. It's far out, so maybe that somewhat weak Pacific H5 won't even verify, it's suppose to be a Nina pattern this year on seasonal models and such and we are very +PNA for the next 15+ days.

^Hopefully that Pacific doesn't come to be. I can see that being a 40N pattern. Neutral H5 Alaska and cold NW Canada is sneaky surface level warm air if it holds the same pattern as it gets closer.

Safe to say the High pressure to the north is overdone, and the storm will shift a little north even if it means a little less phasing? I guess I'm asking what is the difference in outcome if the High pressure is 1035mb vs 1040mb?

1040mb High in NY state when the precip starts. Here's the potential we're looking at.. it counts sleet as snow depth, but a shift north would look like this

6z NAM at 84hrs phasing much better than the 0z GFS Exciting

By the way, since this is still a long range thread -- the EPS did MUCH better than the GEFS regarding the upcoming cold pattern. 5 days ago the GFS ensembles had huge SE ridge, and EPS was below average in the Mid Atlantic for last 8 days of January.

That one didn't have a good pattern in the Pacific or 50/50 low area (500mb vortex was well NE of the spot, technically a "south-based +NAO" -- it wasn't a backed up pattern, it was progressive). This one is a better pattern from the medium range: 50/50 is steady, blocking up north in Alaska, northern Canada, and northern Greenland/Davis Strait.

I made 2 posts about it being a case study, based on the CPC's cold long range forecasts for the 2nd half of January. Looks like it's going to verify as a predictor to the market.

Again, with a 1040mb High to the north, what the UKMET is showing is a wide swath of blizzard warnings It's been so rare lately to have strong High pressure to the north.. if it holds, blizzard conditions are the upside

1040mb High to the north would probably make that warrant blizzard warnings

Check out the point and click forecast Saturday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 19. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Best thing about it is, it gets really cold after the storm.. like single digits or below zero. Then we stay below average probably through the first week of Feb. It would stick around for a long time.

With a 1040mb High to the north as it starts.. close to blizzard

6z GFS almost has a 50/50 low.. We have a strong composite in our biggest snowstorms for DC/Balt for negative 500mb anomalies in the 3 areas I marked with a black line. In the last few days it's come a little closer. We need that Great Lakes trough to trend south or SW.