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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Temperature thing on my computer says it's 82 here!
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thunderstorm season has been shifting to late June/July vs the Spring over the last several years
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not a bad way to spend a Tuesday morning!
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nino 1+2 was almost 0.0 in 09-10.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    And since November every composite for "before an El Nino the next year" has worked out perfectly - probably the best 6 month running composite match on record. It may take a +4.0c ONI El Nino to dominate a N. Pacific low like 82-83 or 97-98 though
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    But the big constant-persistent N. Pacific low has gone extinct as we've gone through time. Whether that is global change or a product of the -PDO/-ENSO background state, the fact that the MEI is still negative for April tells me that the major strong Nino N. Pacific pattern may not be there that strong this year.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    My guess is we don't see a monster North Pacific low like 82-83 and 97-98, but we'll see. The "negative ENSO background state" appears to still be very strong.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Daily ONI is already passing +1.0c in Nino 3.4 and subsurface is warmest ever only below 1997, normal 65F areas on the thermocline are 80F right now. It's going to at least go Strong. SOI is the biggest counter-indicator.. it hasn't had more than a few very negative days.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Even in 23-24 the SOI didn't go very negative... it's been following the PDO in the 2020s where it's leaning positive most of the time Only 16 months of -SOI since July 2020. 77% +SOI during that time Everyone was saying early in the year where we can't have a Strong Nino so close to the last Strong Nino since ENSO is at least partially about balance. Check out this RONI streak.. we are evening this out, imo
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah let's see if the STJ juices up this year with cold ENSO background state probably still in effect. 23-24 Winter was very wet but Nov 2023 was extremely dry
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah -- it was pretty close to a uniform La Nina pattern last Winter in the US. Combine that with pre-El Nino conditions for the year after, and you have about a perfect composite.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I didn't realize it was such a strong La Nina STJ pattern
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe I'm missing something but we still don't have H5 monthlies?
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Donsutherland taking us to town
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    May usually has a pretty strong pattern correlation in El Nino
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's the whole NAO dataset. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table March 2020 being +1.01 = x+1.01 weight March 2023 being -1.11 = x-1.11 weight March 2025 being +0.20 = x0.20 weight It's like that for the whole thing 1948-2020. That's why I like the tool.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Again, since the extreme March 2026 +NAO is leading the May pattern very well, here it is rolled forward to the following Winter: 1B — Postimages
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a little more of a -EPO than WPO. Same with CANSIPS
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty good lagged time correlation between a Solar Max and ENSO cycle (El Nino after Solar max, La Nina after Solar min) 0-time is very slight correlation +1year is stronger +2years is stronger! ^Not a bad correlating map between ENSO and the Solar Cycle there, 73 years of data
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like NOAA adjusted October 2024 and July 2025's PDO numbers down slightly. I believe Oct 24 was -3.85, now it's -3.24, and I think July 2025 was <-4, now it's -3.83 March 2026 has been adjusted from -1.44 to -1.2
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC is disregarding it completely, but their seasonals have not been better than C+/B- grade as you and I have assessed, over the last 15 years.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    My understanding of the PDO is that it's a 50/50 index. They have it as one area vs another area. Unless AGW is targeting an area specifically - which it is probably not on that scale, it still holds value as you could just as likely see the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast of America have warm water as Japan has seen in recent years. In the 2014-2016 +PDO blip, those other areas did become record warm.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks for the reminder! May DCA: -0.7 NYC: -0.6 BOS: -0.6 ORD: -1.8 ATL: -0.1 IAH: +0.5 DEN: +3.1 PHX: +2.4 SEA: +3.6
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    They must calculate in different areas.. Dec 2025 had a >+300dm anomaly which is extreme, only rivaling years like Dec 2021 so the exact coordinates of calculation makes a big difference in the reading since the ridge/block was "on the edge".
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