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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think a Winter -EPO El Nino is impossible. Further north it's more random than the mid-latitudes and the historical analog composite is probably biased to +epo (same with +ao and +nao of super Nino's). The warmth is definitely winning the battles in 2026 so far, however.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Will it show the lowest DM ever recorded in US?
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino who? ERA5 record highest 500mb height over the CONUS is 6027 gpm (21 Aug 2023)
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Northern Hemisphere pattern continues to disconnect from ENSO
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    August will be a good test
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    What's their all time high record low (anyone know?) Imagine if it was July 27!
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think we've seen a North Pacific low anomaly for more than a couple days since the event began.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah CPC always had above average temps for the east coast for the Summer and you could kind of intuitively tell that it would be such. The +603dm that some models are showing for the Rockies though is the typical -ENSO pattern that we have seen for the last few decades. June-July for warm Nino 1+2:
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think it's impossible to have -EPO during El Nino's. Historical analogs are probably too +EPO (further north in latitude is more of a "random point" than like the PNA and NPH). If you look at the reverse of 1895-1948 La Nina's, it's very -EPO/WPO.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think that's a fallacy. There aren't enough examples and NAO/AO has been skewed more positive on Super events (which is a more random point). You have to go back to the physical mechanics of El Nino - Weak vs Moderate vs Strong vs Super is the same. Difference of course being whether it's east or west based, but I think if it was a +3.5c Nino 4-based El Nino people would be saying blowtorch
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino is just not beating out this North Pacific pattern. Last +PNA month was January
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    CANSIPS also has a completely different orientation for the Winter. It has Nino 3.4 dominant, and 1+2 cooling between now and then. I don't think these models are right, the subsurface orientation is east-based.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    98 out here in the woods
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cansips really shifts the El Nino west. Looks dominant in 3.4. Not sure that's going to happen with the current orientation of the subsurface, and Nino 1+2 currently being +2.8c vs Nino 3.4 +1.3c. It looks like it actually cools the far eastern Nino regions between now and the Winter. Don't think that's going to happen with the ECMWF Seasonal forecasting the strongest El Nino on record. Also we haven't seen that "easy +PNA" over a long term period in the Pacific for a very long time.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    You have to wonder if something is keeping the arctic artificially cool in the Summer since record low levels in 2012. It makes sense - it will take 1 million years to create 1 million year old ice again. Probably not at least directly, but it is a thought that crossed my mind fwiw.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    June SOI finished with the lowest monthly reading since early 2016. Healthy El Nino ongoing Still not seeing that North Pacific response, however Pretty much the opposite pattern coming up ENSEMBLE LOOP
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not sure it's as sure as that. Everyone is jumping on like that 5/5 were warm in some skewed logic of Super being a different entity from Weak. I think -SLP in the warm season that we have going now 60-90N supports more Winter -AO. There is a global temperature jump happening I think and that could bring Winter warmer just about everywhere, but I don't it's as ENSO-related as people think.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.5 0.8 2.0 2.5 1.8
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty good cold air correlation in Octobers in El Nino's historically: Counter point is PDO also has a high correlation in October - negative being opposite of map below
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    It was kind of rare to have that SE ridge with such a pattern over the Arctic and North Pacific I think the +NAO was actually the reason - that big negative anomaly exceed -400dm south of Greenland, that has less to do with ENSO
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Vs the 61-90 average seems a little weird.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Low pressure over the N. Pacific favors east coast troughing though. Of course if the negative anomaly spills into the West coast like 82-83 and 97-98, that pushes everything east. +AO kind of dominated the pattern in 82-83 though.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    This may surprise some people - Nino 4 is neutral in trend since mid-April
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    They just had a good snow event in the mountains of Montana!
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think the Arctic cold this warm season will serve as a catalyst to keep the PDO more negative in comparison to ENSO this year. It's a pattern. Still have July-Sept to go though, so it could change, but since the Solar Max it's been a pretty sustained Summer +AO pattern.
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