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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    88 in DCA just like that. Warmth is the story this March/April 1. When the SW, US is warm first, we usually bust high a few degrees.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    My 7th 80 of the year? something like that? Maybe it's number of 76+. Either way, we had a glacier of snow for a month 6 weeks ago. Nice contrast!
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it will be basin-wide like 2015-16
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15): April 1997: +0.59 April 2015: +0.98 We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, April 1997 had a really warm subsurface Image links aren't working. I'll try to upload image later
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Tomorrow we might hit +5c in the subsurface on TAO/Triton. I don't think I've ever seen it so warm. Will have to compare vs analogs.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Brings ENSO warm as far west as New Guinea lol
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Last Summer the CANSIP had -5 anomalies around the Great Lakes and Midwest at 0.0 month (the 1st of the month). It verified +2-3 lol
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hitting 79 an hour earlier than yesterday.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^CPC was putting out long range Winter outlooks that looked like that: warm in the SE, cooler in the NE. Then last month they updated with a full on El Nino composite for the Winter.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Oh no! That's the best site on the internet! Why the heck would they stop it?
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's still March. Where you been?
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Death Valley beating it by 5 degrees is more impressive. They are much further south.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    March 31 Nino 4 is >+0.5... +0.525 This is way ahead of other later in the year >+1.2 El Nino's.. only 2015 and 1997 were greater for the month of April. April 1957 -0.06 April 1963 -0.34 April 1965 -0.92 April 1968 -0.46 April 1972 +0.11 April 1982 +0.33 April 1986 -0.34 April 1987 +0.08 April 1991 +0.34 April 1994 +0.11 April 1997 +0.59 April 2002 +0.41 April 2009 -0.26 April 2015 +0.98 April 2023 +0.13
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    March monthly SOI came in at +7.59. Since 1950, no >+1.2 later in the year El Nino had a March SOI >5.5 fwiw. Only 1 had SOI >2.1 Doesn't mean it can't happen, 15 total examples (RONI) March 1957 -2.7 March 1963 +5.5 March 1965 +2.1 March 1968 -3.6 March 1972 +1.2 March 1982 +0.7 March 1986 -0.3 March 1987 -16.1 March 1991 -10.1 March 1994 -10 March 1997 -7 March 2002 -5.6 March 2009 -1.3 March 2015 -10.7 March 2023 -1.78
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Before today.. warmest March on record for CONUS
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    The 1950s? lol
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm already at 79F.. 1:10pm.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think he's look at NOAA. He referenced Feb as around -1, which is noaa
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Progression of yearly SSTA with January PDO. It doesn't correlate really strong until August. And Aug-Sept-Oct is exponentially higher than Spring/early Summer.. doesn't matter as much through June.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just think it could be a little surprising the possibility for colder conditions in Stronger El Nino. A few of them occurred in the 1895-1948 dataset. The # of samples we have right now is skewed a little warm and too +NAO, imo. Of course we have this global warming spike hitting the West coast and Rockies so we'll see if next Winter doesn't try to repeat the dataset.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Every month in the 2020s has been -PDO. 74 consecutive months right now. Will it break? Stay tuned!
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    In the eastern regions. Even so, our snowstorm composite in the Mid Atlantic is a GOA low which is the much favored El Nino pattern, even in Strong. That means we are a -NAO away from a great possibly historic Winter, with a super amped STJ. I don't agree with your logic about going with a higher number changes the players positionings.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Let's see.. it will be interesting to see if it goes with El Nino and pulls a 2014-2016, or if it continues to meander near neutral despite strong ENSO forcing like 23-24.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well obviously Winters are better if the PDO is strong vs near neutral. You can still get a NE warm Winter in near neutral PDO in El Nino
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