Stormchaserchuck1

Models have really come around to a better looking Pacific..

Yeah, but this is the 500mb pattern, super unfavorable on large scale as a sustained thing, it's taking a few days to change the surface.

Thank you donsutherland for Phoenix, AZ statistics.. this was their warmest Winter on record by a lot. The difference between 1 and 2 is almost the same as 2 and 20. Climate analog point - the pattern that follows April-June of the analogs is below, notice the -H5 up north and -PNA in the Pacific. I've seen this when DC hits a record Winter high temperature or some other US city, the Polar area gets negative anomaly, and there is more ridging at the mid-latitudes +months forward: April US Temps (+2-4 months, some progression east)

29F. I'm surprised Winter is holding on this strong, to be honest. And our last few temperature dips have coincided with precip, it's usually the other way around.

24.5" total. I was always saying Winter average here is close to 30", but it's probably 25" now.

Records just keep dropping in PHX, does it have the greatest rate of warming in the world, of major cities?

This is a little bit of a misconception. Does a Super La Nina mean brutal cold?

Just a dusting here

Analog research comparisons.... 30 analogs Base period: Analogs (Top 30) Following March of 30 analogs Following Apr-May.. maybe a strong severe wx season Following Summer (June-August) Following Sept-Nov: It doesn't show my analogs clearly, so here they are:

What's up with March for the last 6 (now 7), years?

Since I moved 30 minutes north of Baltimore in 1998, 13/28 April's have had snow (flurries or more). Unfortunately, it's 0 for the last 5 though.

It's going to be pretty interesting, because we'll be transitioning from weak La Nina to more El Nino conditions late March into early April. Completely new pattern has the potential to build at that time vs the consistency of what has been all Winter. The pattern right now is for things to cool down a little as they get closer, it should be interesting to see what happens as El Nino starts to build!

I wonder if CANSIPS has consistency bias? I know I think @GaWx was showing how they had SSTA anomalies for the same month year after year.

I'll take 0.5"

+2-3 std +NAO on long range GFS ensembles

We need a trough in the Tenn valley. Mean trough was further NE this Winter, favoring NYC to Boston.

NAO decadal cycle seems to run in 40-50 year phases. This one started in the 1980s. Some were saying this next Solar Min could get more -NAO conditions going

Strong +NAO in late Feb/March is probably going to give us now 15/16 Winters (DJFM) in a row with +NAO, although barely positive this winter. The only -NAO winter in that stretch was only -0.24.

I meant to ask if he has the updated end-of-Winter image, that has like 150 stations.

Feb with +11 SOI... after having no >+10 SOI Jan 2023-Sept 2025 (31 straight months, even during RONI Nina), this was the 3rd >+10 SOI month in the last 5

Here we go.. Gawx posted this in the other thread. CFS AAM projection: The Winter kind of lags previous years ENSO state up until March, but in April New ENSO pattern has greatest N. Pacific correlation (-NOI/-NPH). Notice minor North Pacific difference in March, but major differences in April

This was the number 1 warmest Winter on record (DJF) for much of the West?

About time. New ENSO patterns effect the N. pacific more in April vs previous ENSO state

57F here. A little bit of an overperformer today

March DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 5.0 4.1 3.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.3 2.7 0.3