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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Warm Nino 1+2 pattern hitting, despite strong decadal seasonal trend for warmth out there
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty above average temps Jun 30 - July 6 on 12z EPS
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm a believer in utilizing reverse conditions. The dataset is limited, so historically La Nina's look different than the reverse of El Nino's (they both aren't warm in the east when strong). Some of that is because El Nino's tend to be more east-based, but there is still discrepancy in the reversals.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would say 72-73 and 23-24, although we risk the AO going more negative than those analogs. 15-16 would probably be my number 3
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    How did the JMA initialize the current Nino (I know it has a west or central-based configuration in the Winter)?
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just letting you guys know, this was a >+1 PDO. The new thought in the weather community is that global warming is skewing PDO negative, etc, the warm pool near Japan isn't going away. While SSTAs are warmer, the PDO is a 50/50 index, and the big warmth along the west coast of North America was responsible for strong +PDO in 15-16.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    02-03, 04-05, 09-10.. Nino 1+2 was close to neutral.. those were true west-based Nino years, and what a Winter they were
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    East based Super Nino's in the analogs might have too much of a +NAO bias anyway. 1895-1948 La Nina's were... really warm Winters. Flip that around and it's colder for El Nino's, Nino's might have been more east-based though.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    No, really strong El Nino's tend to develop this way. In comparison to other Super Nino's it doesn't look especially outstanding, but there has never been a La Nina at this time of the year that had Nino 1+2 70% greater than all other regions.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ever had a La Nina this east based?
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's relative to the average fluctuation of different regions vs each other. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1+2 at +2.8c and there is +8c water under there. It's like 50% or more Nino 1+2 based.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just don't think it was a Modoki pattern in the Pacific. Heavy -NAO was why that Winter was cold in the East.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good stuff as always, snowman19
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, El Nino generally favors warm Stratosphere. El Nino/-QBO is what you really want, 23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. I know it didn't correlate highly to the NAO that Winter, but the combo can produce, 09-10 was El Nino/-QBO.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    65-66 had a -PNA?
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC going with some Summer heat leading up to July 4
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    +1.4 on Tropical Tidbits
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Correlation between May-Sept SSTA and Nov-March NAO. Edit: I actually have it in reverse, I should have done lag instead of lead. Here's the +3-6 month correlation: This means that for a Winter -NAO you want cold water in that pool south of New Foundland
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just make sure it doesn't spill over into the Indian Ocean and produce a +WPO
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another interesting thing will be the Feb-March PNA. This 9-year period is the most extreme anomaly for any 9-year period on records over the last 120 years.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we are the furthest thing from seeing west-based Nino patterns decadally, despite general warming in Nino 4. Another question is if the North Pacific High weakens this year. It's like a 5 std "PDO" vs 5 std east-based El Nino. Interesting!
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would love a -NAO with Super Nino STJ. Unfortunately, something like 14 Winters in a row have been +NAO (CPC). AO going negative has been easier to achieve. We will also likely have strong +QBO which strengthens the Stratosphere PV.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though.
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