Stormchaserchuck1

It's the trend. It's a little warmer at the start, then it only snows for a few hours, albeit heavy. My guess would be 1-2" DC to Baltimore

12z Hrr cutting back totals a little bit south of PA

I'm pulling an all nighter, getting ready for the all nigher tomm night! 6z Hrr looks north, but a solid 4" here

Models don't usually correct significantly when there is a PNA projected to be -2 to -3 for an extended period of time. Sometimes you will trend toward a better polar orientation (more -EPO), but that doesn't favor deep cold/snow, it just mutes the warmup.

I don't think JB moves NG. There is a trend in models tonight for the N. Pacific ridge to be more -EPO. Let's see how that goes, it is the seasonal trend since Aug/Sept. If models keeping progressing from -PNA to -EPO this weekend, NG may open up on Sunday.

475dm north of New Foundland/570dm in Alaska, it's the 13/14, 14/15 pattern.

6" snow depth in southern PA on the 03z RAP Models really moistened up tonight. 4" is looking more possible here, if I had to make a guess I'd say 3-3.5"

What's Christmas without a 570dm ridge overhead?

Kuchera is for 10s and low 20s

I don't think there's any model showing 4" right now.

Yeah, it gives me 2-3" snow depth. I'll take it.

0z Hrr is north at Hr48, and has a wide area of precip NWS going for 3" for the Baltimore area, assuming that it's a bit wetter than models. Winter Storm Watches issued for WV, southern Ohio, and SW PA. I wonder if we are next tomorrow?

I was going to say - A move from $5.50 to $4.22 in a few days is extreme! It's a good time to assess the situation: What major has happened/changed in this time that could be effecting not only the next few weeks, but the whole Winter? And later in the Winter - as March 2026 has dropped from $4.25 to $3.57? I've seen the models shift warm, which NG changes led by a few days, but I don't have an answer as to the greater picture right now. I know we are going into some more extreme +NAO in the next little bit of time, which effects Europe too. 480sdm low south of Greenland Hrs 120-144. Maybe it's a persistency thought.

Since we cooled down late August/Sept, it's been more of a -AO pattern. I think it's solar, and therefore the connection is on both sides of the globe. The Southern Hemisphere has had a nice -AAO period since September: Going into next year - that rolls forward to a -NAO, tripole pattern the following March to June (map default is positive so it's opposite correlation v ) Could be a cool Spring.

I love snow but I try to be objective. Last Winter is a pretty good analog for this one imo. But if we are colder in Jan/Feb, there is always a chance that we can do a bigger storm, but the STJ is just completely dead so far this Winter. Acting like a Moderate Nina right now. I also notice that you were leaning cold in the Fall after leaning warm the last few Winters.. not bad so far!

I'm actually pretty bullish on colder this Winter.. at least one of the better Winters in the last 10 years. The models made a huge shift to warm over the last few days though.. Polar Vortex in northern/NW Canada really pops the SE ridge here in the 2nd half of December. Here's a post I just made about it in the ENSO thread: Yeah, pretty big warm up on the GFS ensembles. +NAO gets going in the next few days, and the -WPO transitions into a pattern where the PV is in northern/NW Canada. Natural Gas moved from $5.50 to $4.50 in a few days, over the last few days. It actually led models shifts by about 2 days. I just think that is so interesting. I wonder if Ray's January warm up is happening early? I do think in the longer term we have tendency for -AO/-EPO but that may not be until after or around Jan 1.. Stratosphere warming in Nov wasn't super strong, but that is a possible -NAO the last week of Dec, if the cooler pattern is going to move back in early. we'll see. After the clippers the next few days, I don't really see any threats for snow until around Jan 1st.

Yeah, pretty big warm up on the GFS ensembles. +NAO gets going in the next few days, and the -WPO transitions into a pattern where the PV is in northern/NW Canada. Natural Gas moved from $5.50 to $4.50 in a few days, over the last few days. It actually led models shifts by about 2 days. I just think that is so interesting. I wonder if Ray's January warm up is happening early? I do think in the longer term we have tendency for -AO/-EPO but that may not be until after or around Jan 1.. Stratosphere warming in Nov wasn't super strong, but that is a possible -NAO the last week of Dec, if the cooler pattern is going to move back in early. we'll see.

I don't think a warm up will sustain. The Strat warming gives -NAO tendency the last week of Dec and 1st week of January, and I've mentioned this before, but we had some very low N. Hemisphere 500mb lows in the Summer and Fall. Since 2012, that has a really high correlation with following Winter -AO, primarily at 90N. A High pressure at 90N, which I'm going to say is this Winter's tendency, does cool the northern part of the US. On the other hand, the weak-negative-ENSO/strong -QBO matches that are working out really well (1989, 2005) did flip to a +EPO pattern in late Dec that lasted all of January. We are following those analogs closely right now, but I do think that 90N High pressure tendency may overcome the sustained warmth that those analogs saw going later into the Winter. It is interesting to see the long range models flip warm though, which happened in those years.

Remember, in November it usually takes a Stratosphere warming +30-35 days to impact the NAO (-NAO). Based on CDC reanalysis maps, I'm saying Nov 21 was the first day of 10mb warming. Here it is to Dec 5: Not real strong.. I'd say a 4-5/10 warming, but 11/21 is +35 days -- Dec 26, and 12/5 is +30 days -- Jan 5. So watch Dec 26 - Jan 5 for a turn to more -NAO conditions. That isn't on 2-week model progs yet.

Wow- big shift on 18z GFS ensembles to +NAO in the medium and long range. Natural Gas opened gapping down in price.

Defensive line is by far the worst part of this team. Rogers had been putting up pedestrian numbers all year then all of a sudden he throws for 300yds. In they playoffs they would easily give up 27+ every game. Oh well. I do think if Likely had scored a TD a the end the Steelers wouldn't have been able to drive back down the field.

Lamar played a good game. He gets too cute with his wrist throws and such.. eventually other teams catch onto his mentality, that's what's wrong.

Exactly. Pretty big difference in the playoff picture. It's a shame, the Ravens are team that could get hot at the end, it's how they play like they are always warming up or something.

I posted in this thread like 4-5 times a long time ago that weak-negativeENSO and strong -QBO has this strange coincidence of having super cold December's. 1989 and 2005 were examples. QBO is a stratosphere index so I didn't want to make the physical connection, but mentioned that it would be something if it happened again. And sure enough, it did happen again. This December is looking like one of the coldest in the eastern 1/2 since 2005.