Stormchaserchuck1

Packers super bowl betting odds really jumped over the last 2 weeks. They were 1/20, then traded for Parsons and went to 1/14, to now 1/6.5. 1. Bills 2. Packers

The top 5 analog years are all in the last 5 years. How have you done in the last 5 years? The next two weeks should have a trough in the NE N. Pacific. If people are freaking out about warm SSTAs there, there really shouldn't be a strong, persistent trough developing but the atmosphere comes first and SSTs 2nd. In 2 weeks the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska should cool..

+PNA has high coastal low pressure correlation. So when we don't get that for many years people think that climate change is permanently changing the pattern lol. -EPO is very underrated just because of how flat central-North America is and a High pressure to the NW can really bring down cold air. +EPO isn't something we've seen much of lately. When it hits temperature forecasts almost always bust higher than expected. That's a pattern that when strong in January can lead to 70s in the Mid Atlantic. The Pacific definitely trumps the Atlantic as far as teleconnection patterns go, anomaly-wise, it goes more W->E vs N->S.

Yeah things aren't always what they seem. ENSO subsurface is cooling again with -4c in the central-region I found this correlates with the N. Pacific pattern most of all ENSO variables. The PNA correlation gets going in November, and has highest correlation in Jan-Feb.. if the cold water in the subsurface continues until then. Subsurface fluxes more than the surface. But we really haven't seen that much Aleutian ridging this year. With all the cold H5 near the Pole lately, a cold season +PNA is actually slightly favored just per the Summer Polar pattern. Will be interesting to see which of those two wins out this Winter.

They almost blocked that FG at the end. I don't know how the guy didn't block it actually, he had a completely clear lane to the kicker. 40 points, no INTs, 235 rushing yds and losing lol. The defense has been off since that D-coordinator who is now coach of SEA left. They have like 6 pro bowlers on defense. No excuses it should be that terrible. Buffalo was completing sidelines passes when they needed to.. last play of the half etc. It's pretty easy to defend against a desperate situation you would think...

We haven't been seeing a big Aleutian ridge though. It looks like a vortex over the Arctic circle will get down below 4950dm tomorrow! That is probably record breaking, occurring just north of Russia and coming in close to -500dm. These vortexes over the last few weeks have been something, in the last few days of August we also had a sub-5000dm vortex over the Arctic circle. These extremes are similar to like Cuba hitting freezing.

The Apr-May SLP pattern in the Atlantic was a giveaway.. something to look at in future years. Pattern never really supported a major warming of tropical Atlantic SSTs.

Atlantic (NAO) has slight inverse correlation from October to the Winter Pacific has a pretty strong direct correlation from October to the Winter, a lot of that is around the PDO, which is strongest in Oct out of PNA/ENSO.

Again, be happy it's not Winter August 2025 was the 6th consecutive +AO month. (Mar-Aug) August 2025 was the 7th consecutive +NAO month. (Feb-Aug) August 2025 was the 5/6 consecutive -PNA month. (Mar-Aug [Jul])

August 2025 was the 6th consecutive +AO month. (Mar-Aug) August 2025 was the 7th consecutive +NAO month. (Feb-Aug)

It looks like the Arctic circle vortex gets down to 5000dm today. This is after we just had a 4980dm low in the last few days of August, which was lowest ever recorded in the N. Hemisphere for August. Really a strong +AO time.

snowman19 has been pretty accurate with his predictions. Don't underestimate him.

Yeah, super rare.. like I said, a -400dm anomaly within 45 days of the hottest day of the year, that far south is really impressive!

Looks like it came south with the Pacific pattern, probably more -PNA than -EPO but I haven't seen the H5. Last months had a +SLP over Alaska and a low pressure underneath of it. This one doesn't really have that southern low. And it looks +NAO.

QBO actually works well with ENSO state for 10mb. El Nino/-QBO gives about 75% odds for Winter Stratosphere warmings, and La Nina/+QBO gives about 75% for Winter cold Stratosphere. Last year was Weak La Nina per RONI and with +QBO, it was one of the coldest 10mb's on record Nov-Feb. 2 years ago in -QBO/Strong El Nino we had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. ENSO and the QBO are at odds this Winter. In an unconnected ENSO state it runs about 55-60% warm 10mb for -QBO and 55-60% cold for +QBO. Remember, the QBO is a Stratosphere index, What it means at the surface depends on a lot of in between factors. I think we are pretty split this Winter on -NAO or +NAO indicators, with this recent 6-7 month consecutive +AO/+NAO usually rolling forward to the Winter for the same thing at about 0.2 correlation or 60% probability. Cold H5 during the Summer since the Arctic ice melt low in 2012 has usually put a following Winter ridge at 90N. I think we can possibly be looking at some -AO this Winter, but further south in the N. Atlantic it may be +NAO. The Stratosphere should be warm some of the time with strong -QBO in place, but that occurrence has time lag to -AO events at +15-45 days (depending when in the Winter the Stratosphere warming happens). It's actually really hard to say what XQBO will do to the pattern, since it occurs >30,000ft in the atmosphere. There is some Asia Mountain Torque possibility, which sometimes leads to +PNA, but the correlation on that is actually really weak.

GFS ensemble mean has -400dm over Wisconsin in 2 days. I wonder when was the last time we had the 5400dm line in the US within 45 days of the hottest of the year? It comes in as purple, and that's been a rare pattern lately, only really happening over the AO and NAO regions.

The actual correlation to the Winter NAO consists of two area: cold up north, and warm below New Foundland correlates with Winter +NAO and warm up north and cold below New Foundland correlations with Winter -NAO. Erin really did a lot of cooling in the southern region, but it's actually a 5-month average (May-Sept), and May-Aug so far is running +NAO probability because the north part has been so cold. Here's the Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs -> Winter NAO correlation (default positive) Here is May-Aug so far: Weak Winter +NAO signal overall. Edit: ^That was only August, but it does show how we are progressing lately. Here is May-Aug.. it comes out at a +0.22 DJFM mean NAO prediction

It's been pretty constant central-subsurface cold since the 23-24 El Nino. You can see how the surface has been running much warmer than the subsurface (more credence to RONI), which makes me think that when we finally do shift to El Nino, it will be warmer than the subsurface Kelvin Waves would indicate. Pretty good chance we go to El Nino in 2026 or 2027.

Which ones? I have been below average every Winter since 15-16, and there have been 6 La Nina's in that time (RONI).

+NAO's run wetter, so when that phases with the northern stream, as rare as it is, it produces a lot of good snowfall.

A lot of disparity in the forecasts this month. Even the CPC's outlook released today looks crazy based on how the 1st half of the month will likely turn out (especially in the NW).

DCA: -2.6 NYC: -2.0 BOS: -1.6 ORD: -3.5 ATL: -0.8 IAH: -0.1 DEN: +0.5 PHX: +0.4 SEA: +3.0

When I was researching 10mb events, about Sept 25 is when bigger things start to occur. In late Sept/Oct the correlation with warm Stratosphere to -NAO is actually +60 days! So a warming event would predict a -NAO in late November or December. Cold Stratosphere/+AO is +0 days, right to the surface, as it is the whole cold season.

August finishes the 13th straight month with +SOI, albeit weak

13-14 was a really rare N. Hemisphere 500mb is very unlikely to happen again for a long time. Probably >1/100 year occurrence with such a strong +NAO and cold. For variance, we've never come close to having a strong -NAO with such above average temps, although since 2013 there has been a weaker -NAO/warm EC correlation.