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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well the high ACE = neg NAO hasn't worked well lately, we've had a lot of high ace/la nina seasons. Our last -NAO Winter was 10-11.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    We've been hearing for so many years about how high ACE correlates to Winter -NAO. Not one mention of the opposite this year? It probably hasn't even crossed a lot of people minds. Winter +NAO tendency?
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Record low ACE to date
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a monster +AO pattern lol Since the Solar Max peak in 2024, the warm seasons 2024, 2025 and 2026 have been very +ao. I think it's more of a decadal state, and just minimizes the potential for 09-10 type -NAO or 15-16 type +PNA
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    A seasonal model is never going to predict more than like a +3F month. That's because their accuracy is low and they have a large range of error. East-based Nino/-PDO is about as bad as it gets for long range predictors of Winter CONUS warmth. Hopefully the AO help this year. Baltimore/DC average high never really goes below 40 so we do need some below average temps.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    the can'tsips
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    If Chicago is 0 the rest of the month, they finish +3. And the Euro is showing a big ridge in the medium range. It's not a good forecast, the model can't even factor in the first 6 days right.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    LOL maybe the worst 0.0 month lead forecasts in the history of seasonal models Chicago area Iowa
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Warm Dec
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ok.. I was under the impression that it was cooler here and cooler in the Rockies. Was just going on memory. I've seen it make some pretty bad short term forecasts the last 2 Summers though. And it was about 2,000 miles off on where the El Nino would be centered, based in the last few months.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Should be interesting to see if we see a +PNA N. Pacific low in October and how much of it. This is quite a streak over the past 7 years: Which has obviously preceded the Winter *2023 was the most n. pacific low +pna of the analog set.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I didn't really notice this before - quite a +AO pattern setting up May - Sept +AO: 2024 2025 2026 Looks super-warm in the Mid-latitudes
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^ Should get some 500mb effect in the N. Pacific if that forecast verifies for early Oct
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    The cansips has a cold bias so it will almost always get the colder Winters. It had 0 to +2 in the Rockies and some places finished +10
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    The good news for hurricane lovers is that it's looking like a La Nina will develop next year. El Nino also really warms the globe a bit, lagged up to 1 year later, correlating with warmer SSTs. The last 3 Super Nino's have been followed by the following seasons: 2024: The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active and destructive, featuring 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and causing $131 billion in damage with 442 fatalities. 2016: The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season produced 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with Hurricane Matthew being the strongest at 165 mph and causing over $16.5 billion in damage. 1998: The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was catastrophic, producing 14 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and causing over 19,600 deaths, making it the second-deadliest season on record.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    The southeast doesn't get enough rain? I'll disagree with you on that. Maybe the Southwest.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Check out this cool water in the west - pretty large area with BN
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Similarities to 2025. That's what I thought you meant when responding to my post. Edit: nevermind, I see the PNA was negative 3/4 months last year. We are also following 2024 close with the 90N Summer +AO and that had this DJF PNA 1.70 2025 1.05 1.41 80-90N ridging in the Winter sometimes will pop a low south of it, over the Aleutian islands. That's what I mean by +PNA coming from the arctic
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's what the model predicted. I'm not talking about the Great Lakes.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    How funny would it be if we average +PNA in the seasonal mean, stemming from similarities in the arctic domain and not necessarily the equator. Just about everyone would miss it, assuming it's ENSO.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks like 9/2 is ~+0.40... should come in ~-0.10 for MJJAS. That would actually be our 2nd lowest NAO Winter in 14 years (CPC). I'll take the over on that (CPC), although there could be some ridging around 80-90N.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    So far it hasn't I agree that the cold season will be super interesting to see if it happens or not. Like I said models showing -200dm for a monthly mean, are they that bad? lol
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Usually that storm track happens in +NAO raindancewx still has to tell me how he gets U of Del precip working on that map lol
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm not actually taking for granted that the El Nino will actually do anything to the N. Pacific pattern. Models have -120 to 200dm on monthly means... they usually don't bust that bad... but we are in a "time" where the N. Pacific low is trending more and more out of the picture completely. Just the way it's going.
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