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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Analog research comparisons.... 30 analogs Base period: Analogs (Top 30) Following March of 30 analogs Following Apr-May.. maybe a strong severe wx season Following Summer (June-August) Following Sept-Nov: It doesn't show my analogs clearly, so here they are:
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    What's up with March for the last 6 (now 7), years?
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since I moved 30 minutes north of Baltimore in 1998, 13/28 April's have had snow (flurries or more). Unfortunately, it's 0 for the last 5 though.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's going to be pretty interesting, because we'll be transitioning from weak La Nina to more El Nino conditions late March into early April. Completely new pattern has the potential to build at that time vs the consistency of what has been all Winter. The pattern right now is for things to cool down a little as they get closer, it should be interesting to see what happens as El Nino starts to build!
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wonder if CANSIPS has consistency bias? I know I think @GaWx was showing how they had SSTA anomalies for the same month year after year.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll take 0.5"
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    +2-3 std +NAO on long range GFS ensembles
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    We need a trough in the Tenn valley. Mean trough was further NE this Winter, favoring NYC to Boston.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO decadal cycle seems to run in 40-50 year phases. This one started in the 1980s. Some were saying this next Solar Min could get more -NAO conditions going
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Strong +NAO in late Feb/March is probably going to give us now 15/16 Winters (DJFM) in a row with +NAO, although barely positive this winter. The only -NAO winter in that stretch was only -0.24.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I meant to ask if he has the updated end-of-Winter image, that has like 150 stations.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Feb with +11 SOI... after having no >+10 SOI Jan 2023-Sept 2025 (31 straight months, even during RONI Nina), this was the 3rd >+10 SOI month in the last 5
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here we go.. Gawx posted this in the other thread. CFS AAM projection: The Winter kind of lags previous years ENSO state up until March, but in April New ENSO pattern has greatest N. Pacific correlation (-NOI/-NPH). Notice minor North Pacific difference in March, but major differences in April
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    This was the number 1 warmest Winter on record (DJF) for much of the West?
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    About time. New ENSO patterns effect the N. pacific more in April vs previous ENSO state
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    57F here. A little bit of an overperformer today
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    March DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 5.0 4.1 3.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.3 2.7 0.3
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    80F sounding on 18z GFS
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    They were saying it was MJO related, but MJO is so tropospheric vs the Polar Stratosphere.. I think larger things are more correlating both is the argument. The anti-correlation is pretty strong though, -0.25 over the N. Pole is 62.5% chance at favoring cold ENSO vs warm ENSO, but that's probably because of not enough examples. It was actually pointed out last March that SSW would jump start El Nino, but the anti-correlation worked last March, as we had cold ENSO later this year.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't worry about it.. Florida got 10" of snow last Winter. It snowed there again this Winter.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty close to before. 09-10 was the most -NAO Winter on record, since the 1800s. We are in a little deeper -PDO now.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino's really favor this area vs NYC-North. Since 1998, >50% of Winter's have been La Nina (RONI) (average should be 33.3%)
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Todays Euro weeklies for March 9-16: March 16-23 Today's 3-4 week CPC
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Your kids finally got a significant snowfall! Did they enjoy it?
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