Stormchaserchuck1

I'm not saying that it has a lot of value.. the DJF composite probably maxes out at +0.1, which is a 55% chance of something happening. I do think that a "rogue PNA", one that is not accompanied by ENSO or ENSO changes does have a higher likelihood to even out.. But we are not seeing the same consistent Aleutian High pattern so far as 2020-2024, so we'll see..

Good post bluewave. Europe has had a really linear Winter warming trend that has spanned the last few decades. I remember seeing a graph of Germany's snowfall and it was a consistent 25 degree angle down since the 1960s/70s. Last Winter Europe was really warm, so the trend continues there. It seems to be at least somewhat correlated to the NAO index, like you say.

Very interesting. I think we need to separate the top half and bottom half for "max" and "min". Within that, we assign a +0-9 year lead for best predicted NAO state. For example: If year 2000-2009 is Solar Min with 2004 Solar Min peak (not really data, I am just making an example), we are saying +0-9 years makes 2004-2013 the highest probability for -NAO. I think 2024 was the peak for this Solar Max (correct me if I'm wrong), so we're saying the tendency is for 2024-2033 to be highest likelihood for +NAO, since the next 4-5 years will be declining, but still in the top half, most likely. It is only 1 year before the next Solar Cycle peaks (so coming Solar Min peak) before the NAO tendency actually changes from previous Solar Max peak! Edit: I see 11 years is for the whole cycle to circulate, not to go from one to the other.. so it's just a +NAO tendency until 1 year before coming Solar Min peak, which your research is saying 6-7 years after Solar Max peak, so 2030-2031.. +NAO tendency until ~2029-2030

You can do "lags" and "leads" A lead is the index comes first.. +1-24 months A lag is the 500mb composite comes before the index.. -1-24 months So -24 months is 2 years before a Solar Max There is actually a -NAO signal at -24 months -12 months before.. transitioning to Neutral So since Solar cycles are almost perfectly cyclical, there is actually a +correlation all the way until 1 year before the next Solar peak (Min or Max)! So if the average cycle is 11 years, that's a 0 to +9 year NAO correlation composite

I think you get it. If Min = -NAO = +2. If Max = +NAO = +2. If Min = +NAO = -2, If Max =+NAO = +2, so the 2nd set would be "0", and the first set "+4". It's too bad it doesn't go out further. I've tried several times, hoping they would update. It's a 73-year base period, so there is not that much data cut off going out +3-4 years. To do the full 11 years, it would have to be manual, but you can see what NAO state is favored 1-2 years before a Solar Max/Min event at least (weaker overall correlation)

To bluewave's point, here is the following Winter +1 year after a +PNA December December +12 months January +13 months February +14 months Somewhat of a signal there for warmer than average temps in the eastern 1/2. I didn't sort it out by negative ENSO, but the general gives you a lot more data points. It's on ok signal (ENSO usually changes state the year after a relative PNA Winter, which I will say again is interesting. It's counter-intuitive)

Solar Min is included in the maps. It's Max minus Min If the Solar is 500 (Min) and Max is 1500 (Max) and the average is 1000, Min is [-500] and Max is [+500] The map is default positive phase, with both included, so for the Min, just flip the correlation coefficient around (+0.3 over Greenland vs -0.3). But it's also part of the same map.

It only goes out to +24 months. It would have to be manual to do +3 to +4 years. What I like about the correlation composites, is it takes both sides of the variable into account.. so those images are Solar Max minus Solar Min. Lots of data.

Good post.. lots of data shows +years after a solar peak has the highest cold season NAO correlation Solar Max +0 years Solar Max +1 year Solar Max +2 years As you can see, the south part of the NAO measurement (central North Atlantic High pressure) increases pretty substantially +2 years time from Solar peak. The final image looks more uniform +NAO, vs just a northern latitude feature in the first image.

We've only had 1 strong Aleutian High pressure pattern since November.. Jan 15 - Feb 10. LR models are showing the PNA dipping below -1 at Day 10+.. but yeah, it's been a little different for the last 6 months. The long range could favor a strong ridge in the Midwest and Southeast (correlation this map is opposite for negative phase) if the -PNA pans out

I'm down to 48F already.. during strong +AO. This shows how shortened wavelengths in May make different things possible.. if it were January, I might still be 48F

PNA usually doesn't carry year-to-year.. good point. In fact, it commonly reverses in the NOI area (North Pacific High), off the West coast. That to me says that it usually precedes changing ENSO conditions (+PNA a year before more La Nina, -PNA a year before more El Nino.. slight correlation there, but it's an interesting one)

I'm just saying, why would a consistently identified index not change year-around if it was CC. Now, I think the long term NAO is biased a little too negative in the averages, but if it was CC, you would see it more universally heading in a direction. It may be a little more decadally cyclical.

Much less El Nino than before.. only 13%. The SOI leads the way again.. It's been positive 8 straight months through April (last year it was Neutral leading the way for a weaker ENSO than originally thought, as per the subsurface and early surface trends).

^Good stuff bro. The cold water that we were seeing off of Africa does appear to be at least neutralizing. You may be right about the warming trend in the tropics late Spring. I still think the +NAO over the next 6 days isn't that great, but it appears to be switching in the medium/long range.

After a quick review, it looks like the early-1900s were more +NAO. This looks more cyclical since the 1890s, and although 3 swings is not much, it may even run in 50-year cycles, which we could actually be in the middle of.

I was using DJFM, but it's interesting to see that there's still only 1 example in 14 years, using DJF. +0.25 is not that much. There isn't NAO data from the 1930s, but imo the 1930s through early 1950s were probably more +NAO.

I'm not so sure the NAO is tied to CC. Why have other seasons had -NAO's, some strong -NAO? The Winter NAO state for the last 14 years is a bit of an anomaly, because it hasn't happened that way in other seasons. Don't get me wrong, I would say the trend is warmer and less snowy, but that N. Atlantic pressure index has not been favorable. With more global precipitable water now though, I think a -NAO these days would be less dry than several decades ago.

I would take -NAO though. It's about a 0.5 or 75% correlation. Since 11-12, the lowest Winter NAO (DJFM) we have had is -0.14! And in that time there have been 18 Winter months >+1.12 NAO and 0 Winter months <-1.12 NAO. Remember, the NAO is a SLP measurement, so it's not always aligned with 500mb. We know about the record snow drought for PHL-NYC the last 7-8 years.. and every one of them has been +NAO. Not a perfect correlation, but a good one..

^Very interesting! The NAO looks to be pretty positive for the next 7 days, which is anti-Atlantic tripole. Remember, May is kind of a sensitive month for south-central Atlantic warming and the following season.

Pretty nice Aleutian High pattern getting going at Day 13+ on the GEFS. Let's see what happens, that is associated with possibly some cooling in the ENSO subsurface, and a short term trend to more -PDO. Could pop a nice ridge in the Midwest, too.

I think it's more after the fact. Now, I think in a long term PDO phase, the subsurface moves to the state, and the thermocline does have impact on the H5 pattern (subsurface takes longer to change, longer to move back). However, that didn't work out so good last Winter, when we were coming off of a record 4-year -PDO period and the +PNA was mostly present. Since November, the only strong Aleutian High pattern that we have seen was Jan 15 - Feb 10. Just 1 example. A shift has generally occurred. It will be interesting to see how that progresses in the Summer. The PDO doesn't have real high year-to-year correlations believe it or not, and even +several months its correlation wanes. A lot of the high-correlation-PDO composites that you see are because the PNA impacts it in now-time.

Orioles tied for 2nd worst record in the AL right now. I knew those 6th place world series betting odds preseason were too bullish.

Really nice cold 500mb +NAO for the next 7 days. That's what I want to see more of through the late Spring/Summer to have more -EPO next Winter.

I think you did pretty good Ray.