Stormchaserchuck1

La Nina in general supports patterns that are associated with long track storms across the Atlantic basin vs easily recurving out to sea. If you look at Atlantic hurricane tracks by year, there is a pretty big difference historically between La Nina and El Nino years. A lot of El Nino storms recurve, and some La Nina storms recurve, some don't. It's not a perfect correlation though. I don't really know if warmer SSTs in the SE N. Atlantic would be a big enough factor to favor more recurves, it's probably a small difference.

I think we had satellite technology going way back into the 1970s and 80s. There is maybe 0.4-0.8 storms per year that are named now, that weren't named several decades ago. I know as a kid in the 1990s, I was always watching every little swirl, and they almost always were named. The uptick in 1995 was more a matter of Atlantic SSTs getting warmer, vs new guidelines.

The MJO went through phases 3-4-5 the only time it was cold this Winter, Jan 11-21. The rest of the Winter was mostly warm for the CONUS

They get I think 1/3 to 1/2 of the storms we do.

lol I love all weather.. a reason I wouldn't move up north is they don't get much of a severe wx season. The further west you go, toward maybe Buffalo though.. but not SNE, it's pretty much snow and that's it. depressing Springs.

I still think that's just La Nina cold.. not enough examples to make conclusions about the AO. After 20-25 examples, I think that would look more neutralized.

Really? It must have updated.. weird because they go back to 1948. Must be cold 80% of the time.

Here's the Nino 3.4 +12 months Default is + so warmer general Hemisphere 500mb.. somewhat the same Pacific pattern. +AO is probably the biggest variable and that carries a max correlation of 0.18, which could be near random with 75 years dataset.

Satellite data set is 48-20, makes 1984 the middle. 5/6 are after that date.

N. Hemisphere looks colder. That's about the only correlation I'm willing to make with 6 examples and one of the important inputs being "neutral". I wonder if Neutral after El Nino the N. Hemisphere looks warmer?

It feels a lot warmer than 44F lol. I can't wait for this warm up, it's going to feel awesome. It's also been something like 20/24 days of clear skies, since that warm day actually.

12z GEFS has the Aleutian High near +400dm on 2/23, then goes through 4 reloads going out into March.. over +250dm the whole time on the ensemble mean.. it's going to start warming up real quick. After the next few days, expect temps to start busting high.

I think there might not be enough examples.. there is so much happening all the time.. ENSO is just one part. Sometimes you have to just project out ideas that make sense going forward. I did notice the STJ got really juicy last March. I dont know about your snow and temperatures though, I've just tested it vs the N. Pacific pattern. The correlation wasn't really high, but it started to work this year so.. I bet if that ENSO-subsurface cold pool wanes, the -PNA/Aleutian High will wane too.

In my opinion, it has. This is why last year was especially frustrating, because a similar transition from La Nina to El Nino took place mid/late Winter. It did give us some nice -EPO in March though.

Central-ENSO-subsurface has +correlation to PNA pattern at 0-time. Even though it tests back historically at about a 0.3 correlation with the Aleutian High/Low, it is higher than all other ENSO measurements (850mb winds, 200mb winds, OLR, SLP, SSTs, etc.) I've plotted it all out. You will say that in some past Strong Nino examples we did have a monster N. Pacific low though although the subsurface was cooling... I think I mentioned this in early February when the SOI was in the -40's/-50s, that, that was the only thing keeping that GOA low going at that point, and if we wanted to see El Nino persistence, the SOI better stay that strong.. it went to the single digits 5 days ago, and switched to positive today. Part of the answer probably rests in that we never really saw a +PNA pattern for the El Nino before the Winter (Apr-Nov).

^pretty cool

Well, here ya go.. +12 months PDO (chart maps default is positive, so negative PDO is opposite) I would say since it's performing strong relative to Strong Nino right now makes it a peak-time index.

I'd be interested to know why we aren't getting -NAO's too, especially sustained -NAO's. The CPC has us +1.10 for DJ, and it looks like another >+1.00 month for February as per their method of calculating. Going back in their stats, we have had 1 -NAO January since 2011 (12/13 years positive!), and 1 -NAO February since 2011 (12/13 years). That's crazy. I think their calculations is more based around SLP near the Azores, but wow! Beyond that, when the NAO goes negative on a daily basis, it's usually no more than 10-14 days.

Yeah, you're right.. shorter wavelengths in March make the downstream Aleutian islands ridge not have as much effect as it would in January. NAO is the bigger variable in March if they are both the same strength, although the Greenland ridge can spill into the NE sometimes. But what you don't want to see is that trough over Alaska and the Bering Strait.. just about all times of the year that is a warm to very warm pattern. Models do have have that feature in the long range.. this isn't like last March where the ridge was building up into Alaska. The N. Pacific Aleutian islands ridge that I am talking about, that looks so impressive on MR-LR models, is flat and south-based, and has a trough over top of it. That could give us 50s and 60s high temps for some time, if the -NAO doesn't depress the pattern. We have had +WPO and +EPO a lot of the Winter (^opposite temperature graph as the map above).. some research I've done suggest that they are heavily -PDO correlated, although there certainly could be other reasons.

I don't know.. the El Nino's about to take a big hit. These -2-3c anomalies are about to make it to the surface I wouldn't be surprised if some cold water started to appear at the surface in the next few weeks.

There have been a lot of clear sky days lately. With the pattern switching to La Nina, maybe we are going to start having drier conditions.

I think it will verify. Everyone pretty much knows that it's not going to snow for the next 16 days. That would be much more difficult without models. Humans like to be challenged, because that's how they learn best.

That is a massive -PNA (in the Pacific) through Day 16 on the 12z GEFS!

A hot summer may be likely. Here is Summer patterns of all 19 La Nina's minus El Nino's since the PDO went negative, and AMO went positive in ~95-98. That trough up north over the Bering Strait and Alaska is a very warm pattern for the CONUS: 0.5 is a high correlation for what's going on far away in the Summer months. Here's the long wave connection

Weird that the CDC composites doesn't have it. https://ibb.co/syZ7nVz Unless this is it? https://ibb.co/hC0bxT5