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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Orioles only 2gb of the wild card?
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    You can really see it in the SOI over the last 30 years. We are breaking it hard now however, but if the N. Pacific Hadley Cell was +SOI driven it should be reversing around now and that has not happened yet but it is mid-warm season Streak of the last 30 years really makes the current -26 30-day that much more impressive. I think I calculated something like 72% of months were +SOI since 1998.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Will definitely be interesting to see how it progresses through the rest of this year with Super Nino! Battle of forces! If the PDO holds neutral or negative through the Winter it's probably going back to negative after this year. I don't intuitively feel like we will see a lot of -500mb in the North Pacific this year, but I could be wrong!
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Honestly the pattern since 1998 looks like a Hadley Cell expansion, which you see in both the North and South Hemisphere, which usually points to equilateral Pacific as a main cause
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think there are global things in motion/phase, and you see this reflected in the PDO. I agree SSTs are secondary to air patterns.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO is less related to ENSO than people think. Maybe more so west-based events correlate, but east-based events primarily effect the North Pacific High
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another Aleutian ridge! Since the El Nino began, N. Pacific ridge vs troughs lasting 5 days more more: 6-0. July will likely be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've always wanted to do that. In Mt. Shasta, CA the mountain clears completely in the Summer, then in September/October huge amounts of snow start piling up on the top. How cool would it be to camp on top of that mountain when the first 4-8' falls? It's easy to climb to.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like that Southern Hemisphere version of PNA is coming along pretty nice. TT only has 2m, if someone has global 500mb anomaly for GEFS and EPS can you post the link? 384hr 12z GEFS
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Your Modoki Nino composite has cool anomalies in the east greater than warm anomalies in Nino 4. That's not accurate. Actually, a Modoki Nino typically has no negative anomalies anywhere in ENSO. +0.4c max in the west vs -0.6c max in the east is not an El Nino.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    July has been the wettest month of the year for the eastern 1/2 of country since 2017.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    5 straight days under -34 is pretty impressive 16 Jul 2026 1013.27 1018.25 -36.50 -25.58 -18.73 15 Jul 2026 1012.10 1017.65 -40.01 -24.45 -18.16 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 It looks like the last time the 30-day was below -30 was 1983. We are -25.58 Since 1905 30 day has only hit -30 twice. 4x since 1876.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Biggest difference I see is in the central-subsurface. That could mean two things: 1) The event trends more basin wide than east-based going forward (which seasonal models have) 2) There may not be a major La Nina snap-back for 27-28
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    With +QBO? El Nino by itself does disturb the Stratosphere PV
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's hard to assess without Daily Climate Composites page, but right now it looks pretty negative. July 15 is 50% of the way through, and I would say it's about ~-0.4 for DJFM NAO predictor.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Lowest 30 day SOI since 1997... almost 30 years. It's impact on the global pattern has been nothing very impressive so far however
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    SOI going wild right now.. up there in a top 7/8 event since the late 1800s per SOI now. 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 11 Jul 2026 1011.77 1015.80 -30.66 -23.06 -16.66 Currently lowest 30-day SOI since 1997
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Subsurface is actually falling behind 1997 right now (+9c vs +7c). There is however a Kelvin Wave hitting the central-subsurface, so maybe it will increase eastern anomalies in a few weeks. Timing of gravity waves is not always the same in different ENSO events.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Western subsurface is not really cold like you see in a lot of developing Super Nino's by now.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I find it interesting that we had a massive N. Pacific low as recent as 15-16. That was a big +PDO year, even before the pattern happened. Is the PDO really that important or is it actually just a global warming occurrence??
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    111 in Billings, MT is insane. They just had snow in Montana 2 weeks ago! Do you guys notice this see-saw happening more times that not, although France is just exceeding and exceeding their records, not wavering back and forth between warm and cold there.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^ 6000dm is extending all the way to just south of Canada. That has to be some kind of record. Jul-Aug correlation to ENSO. Forgive me for including August but these are the 2 hottest months of the year.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm just thinking a 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 monster North Pacific High low pressure may be a thing of the past. Those were monster troughs, Super El Nino driven. Does the PDO really make that much of a difference? -PDO strongest 3 El Nino's. A little different south of the Aleutians lol
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe neutral in the Pacific. It's all High pressure at the very end Even a "Weak Nino" should be spinning up a low somewhere in the N. Pacific right now. We are obviously in a pattern that is more dominant
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll go warmer on the August pattern This one has nothing to do with -NAO/AO
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