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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Our most recent severe cold/snow Winters in October If you take out 2014 because that Winter had a record breaking ridge over the West, the October composite is much colder.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't see why having snow in October would be a bad thing. Would you rather it be 80 in October? People here run away with a small matching number of statistics. You see this especially with Super Nino analogs.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was going to say, I haven't seen this much activity non Winter since 2005 lol
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thankfully you can drive 9 hours to 300" of snowfall a Winter, or a few hours to the mountains.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe we'll get a surprise -nao for the Winter. It's felt cool lately, in Sept I had 3 straight nights in the 40s and an early end to Summer locally for the 3rd straight year. I keep saying, hard to believe it can't cool down 30 more degrees for the Winter. The last 2 years had these late Summer/Sept patterns too, and they got cold for the Winter. With the east-based Nino/-PDO completely unfavorable for cold, I keep thinking where would it come from? Maybe the NAO?
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +0.7 +0.7 +0.5 +0.9 +0.9 +1.1 +2.5 +1.8 +1.5
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    In the whole picture I'm not seeing H5 similarities to 1997 and 2015.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    No, May-June-July-Aug NAO was -0.75 per month, that comes out to -0.07/month for DJFM, or DJFM total of -0.28, based on 75 years. Weak correlation, but generally those 4 months negative then Oct pos is an interesting point for more winter -nao tendency.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    May, June, Aug, Sept NAO total was -3.00.. -0.75/mo. 3/4 months negative. I think the overall correlation from -0.75 MJJA to DJFM is -0.07/8 lol.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not with this. -PDO is cold water in the GOA. This is also anti-El Nino October
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like May-Aug NAO was -0.75/month and if October ends up +.. that is a formula for a more -NAO Winter. Plus since 2012 90N May-Sept SLP has reverse for the Winter every time, and it was strong neg anomaly this Summer.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, October is the only month of the year that has an opposite correlation to DJFM NAO. I don't know if that's true given 250+ years of examples though.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was 15, keeping a weather journal. Only year I ever did one. Picked one hell of a year for that huh! I was looking back and there was snow 4x in October, but it could have been flurries, or even just flakes
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks slightly negative overall.. with seasonal models. I just don't know that I think we are in a -NAO time right now
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    You got it with those correlation maps.. lack of a SE trough accentuates SE Canada ridge, or extends it south. The issue I think is - what is the Pacific pattern in that circumstance? It may favor a ridge NE of Japan or west-based -PNA with the NPH area off the West coast (most impacted region of east-based Nino) having a negative anomaly. I don't think the EPO and WPO are big parts of the ENSO/PDO, a little more random further north than what we are discussing. Negative EPO could come to our rescue this Winter but that index is the hardest to predict seasonally.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    EPS with a >5940dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands at Hr 360 It's completely backed of the <-250dm at D10.. now models have like -150dm max and the pattern only lasts 3-4 days
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Locally. I just had 3 consecutive nights in the 40s. No major heatwaves late Summer for the 3rd consecutive year.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nothing too unusual
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well, 8 named storms and it's still September.. not bad. Shear in the Atlantic has been record high this season. I think the old days of 9NS/yr average, pre-1995, may be done.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Daily PDO has been tanking.. it's near -2 right now
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Under. Late Summer to September has been pretty cool.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would say October snow is a good thing. In 2002, it snowed here in October 4x.. I had 125" that Winter, easily best of my lifetime. It snowed all the way until early May 2003, patterns tend to be longer term.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO's only inversely correlated month of the year to DJFM NAO is October.. opposite correlation.. the Pacific is linearly correlated at 57%, but sometimes in El Nino's a favorable Pac October shifts to unfavorable (+EPO) for the Winter. That might just be because of not enough examples though.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, seasonal models showing -200dm monthly +PNA in the N. Pacific doesn't seem likely. They are heavily ENSO-bias, need to be reprogrammed
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    As 40/70 Benchmark would say, the kiss of death for the Winter
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