Stormchaserchuck1

Glad to see my Summer N. Atlantic SST indicator work out for the NAO, despite it being a cold Winter. I was afraid that would happen, saying that -epo/+pna has been correlating with +NAO, and there were 9 troughs over Greenland earlier in the year for the first time 2020-2023... sign of maybe a colder time.. but I couldn't pull the trigger in my Winter forecast, just going with the boring indicators and default +NAO temp correlation.

Well none of your analogs had more positive than a near 0 Winter NAO. The average NAO for your analogs was -0.5/month. I'm just saying a -AO block near the north pole was so far north, that a strong low pressure formed under it in the N. Atlantic, and "downstream" from this 45-50N trough, was a SE ridge, sending that mysterious -5 AO storm north.. that atlantic trough though was the closer pattern to us than the AO, and the relative magnitude was actually slightly higher (average volatility/latitude difference). I understand that it is hooking up with SE ridge more often now, some of that is because of a stuck -PNA/+EPO pattern, which has been correlating with the NAO at 0.40 since 2019, and 0.30 since 2013. Overall, it's hard to argue against total warming, but the reason for specific events is more pattern based.

Yeah, but the NAO difference is big. Look at Europe. DJF came in +2.29 total for NAO, so +0.76/month.

This +NOI is a La Nina pattern Part of a progressive flow.. here is what ENSO really is (a lot of misconception being around its main influence is the PNA)

This +NOI is actually a staple of La Nina, similar to how there was a -NOI last Winter for Strong El Nino. Almost exact opposites over the Pacific and N America..

The Midwest did get record cold around it.. It hit -32F in Valentine, Nebraska. The NAO has been positive in the mean for this Winter.. If you calculated the cases there was a -300dm trough at 45-50N/35W, there would be above average temperatures on the East coast south of Boston. Sometimes the closer pattern prevails.

I bet in those cases though you didn't have +400dm over the very North Pole. Even if the block extended south of that, the 4-trough pattern in the N. Hemisphere was based around a 90N center. Then there was also a very anomalously cold and tight 10mb vortex, that may have kept the wavelengths closer to the center.. result of that is you have a storm cutting up to SE Canada. I understand the rarity of that, 3 weeks from the coldest time of the year during -5 AO, but it was kind of a tight pattern. That strong N. Atlantic trough getting south of the block did favor the SE ridge.

I was saying it in the Mid-Atlantic forum, that the -AO was actually too far north. The global cells make a 90N block put a trough at 45N, but not 40N.. under the Arctic block was a strong trough in the North-Atlantic. -300dm on your map. That is actually a south-based +NAO, and correlates to a slight SE ridge pattern.

It might to try to push Weak Nino but the subsurface is still cold. +PDO/Neutral is above average I think, probably like 120%.

Nino 1+2 is +1.6c right now. March Nino 1+2 has a pretty good correlation to November +PDO. PDO still hasn't gone positive since pretty much 2016, so there is a lot of movement to make up but early trends in ENSO point to it. Also, according to CPC this Winter (DJF) is going to be the most +PNA on record non-El Nino. (Although I disagree with that), there is the same signal: not impressive for ENSO.. but +PDO a year rolled forward:

^QBO/ENSO has been correct on the Stratosphere state 3 Winter's in a row.. -QBO/El Nino favors warm Stratosphere, +QBO/La Nina favors cold Stratosphere. It's been an anomaly that those indexes have been lined up for 3 years in row, but an El Nino next Winter would make that 4 years in a row. 23-24 was a -QBO/El Nino but we had 4 Stratosphere warmings that Winter, and an overall warm Stratosphere state for the cold season... This Winter has been frigid at 10mb, and 22-23 was cold too.. both +QBO/Nina's. It doesn't always make it to the surface, but it does most of the time. That makes the possible El Nino more sensitive to potential cold (-AO) going into next cold season.

An El Nino next Winter would be great because we will have -QBO.. The two together favor Stratosphere warmings, or a warm Stratosphere 75% of the time. 23-24 was El Nino/-QBO, but we did have 4 Stratosphere warmings that Winter, a breaking up of the 10mb PV doesn't guarantee surface cold in the mid latitudes, but odds are about 0.2-0.3 correlation for a better Winter if we have those two indexes lined up. 22-23 and 24-25 were both Nina/+QBO and they were both cold 10mb, so the combo has hit 3 Winter's in a row..

Pretty weak with the line here. Definitely much needed soaking rain though.. my grass is brown for first time since 2002. It's been constant moderate to heavy rain for hours today.

Is this line of rain coming through the end of it? That's a big bust in the Slight risk to the north, up to Eerie, PA if that is the case - 2nd day in a row where there are literally no storm reports north of a certain area. Don't know why they do that.

A few of the GFS ensembles are hanging onto the north track I'm afraid temps could be in the mid to upper 30s though

This is the first Stratosphere warming of the cold season, since November. Today's Euro isn't as strong as the GFS on 10mb warming at Day 8+.

The northern, marginal, part of the storm threat today isn't happening so far.. they are more south. Don't know if that carries into tomorrow, temps are a little bit warmer today in the east than projected.

Low 60s in the area today.. a little bit of an upside surprise.

We actually have pretty good temps on the GFS as the storm passes south If it comes north, I could see mid to upper 30s with frozen though, given the -PNA in the Pacific.

Yeah, with the stock market crashing that's probably right

Natural Gas going high again today favors a colder outcome.. let's see what 12z models do with that Day 6-7 storm, and maybe 18z.

Natural Gas is already up +8% today, making it +16% in the last 2 days. When that happens, since it's up to 60-80% correlated to weather, you have to consider what is going on with the global pattern. 1) There is a 970s mb low currently in the Midwest.. almost record breaking so far south. The first major low pressure in the Midwest in a long time. 2) There is a major Stratosphere warming on the horizon.. weeks out. Could the impact have been previously underestimated (NAO correlation)? 3) Per CPC, the PNA has been positive every day since Dec 1st. Now March, is there is a cold-continuum in play here? Although there was a 3 week period in February where it likely wasn't positive, it is the first relative +PNA Winter in 8 years. Does the pattern outperform models in its staying power this year?

I had drifts off of my house of 3' of sleet from the '93 storm. It was originally projected to be 24-36" of snow, then changed 1 day before to a foot and lots of sleet.

NAM is running lol -PNA pattern in the Pacific is no good for this one

Following Sept correlation with March Nino 1+2 Following November (Nov 2025)