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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't like that the dryslot is north of Rockville!
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, started changing over just when I posted that.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    That is a nasty dryslot working into DC. Still all rain in Fallston. Temperature says 33 degrees. Edit: just started to mix in with snow.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah but the Pacific dominates Only a 0.3 correlation in the South-SE, and it's technically all 3 areas. I'd rather just go to the source..
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, 00z and 01z has trended a little weaker at 500mb.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    eh.. it's warmer at 11hrs.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z NAM does have the low a little north of 18z at 5hrs.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    ENSO subsurface is showing a -3c pocket now in the central region at -200m. In my research/experience, that has a pretty high correlation to the N. Pacific pattern at 0-time (backs the -PNA idea). Plus we are in some strong multi-year states with that 500mb feature in Feb/March.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    The main region for PNA is in the N. Pacific Ocean south of the Aleutian islands.. Both, or all 3 images shown so far had a ridge there (-PNA). I don't call what's happening over alaska or gulf of alaska, pna, although the CPC does include that.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's 18z GEFS.. just a crazy ridge south of the Aleutian Islands https://ibb.co/9Wycxzf Here's something I posted a few ago, https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY With a Strong El Nino at the surface, and negative in the subsurface, and now +250dm -PNA appearing, it hits this +correlation, which I have found is better than surface conditions. That's a really warm pattern setting up there on the LR GEFS with the EPO going + too..
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Sometimes when the mathematical variability is so strong, it's worth considering. Ideally, weather forecasting should outperform Energy Futures because you would think we have better methods.. they are speculating. but that's not been the case for a while. I'm really surprised that the global models just had El Nino-climo, when we have had such a strong -PNA for the last 6 years, and the El Nino was not correlating with it April-Oct. With that strong 24th -PNA I just showed in the previous post, it looks like we may come in near neutral in the PNA region for February, which is in line with this record streak that we are in.. But the global models had like a -120dm to -150dm +PNA for the month.. just normal ENSO climo.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's easier to use, save, animate, quick loading time, doesn't go down being a NOAA site. I don't think there is a very big difference between the quality of all the different maps. If something is better, I would use it.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd say it's more -PNA/-PDO with a ridge south of the Aleutian islands and trough over Alaska. 12z GEFS was really strong -PNA around the 24th, with this central N. Pacific High pressure. We don't trend toward snow when this. https://ibb.co/4twbnfY
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    23z Hrr looks a little bit better. https://ibb.co/nDFbQ8Y
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Will do. 23z RAP still showing 6" up here.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Low pressure is a little N in Tenn from where models had it.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    lol yeah models are a mess
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    GFS and NAM were doing the same thing last time.. It's a 984mb low off of Ocean city 16 days from our coldest of the year.. good chances imo. It may end quickly though.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    They will bust low like the last 2 times.. I expect Winter Storm Warnings to go up N of I-95 right before, or during the storm.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    20z Hrr brought the heavy snow totals furthest SW of all model runs so far, 6" to Frederick, MD. I'm pretty comfortable with where I am in Harford Co. to get 4-6".
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    eh.. Big difference right now between the GFS/NAM and Hrr/RAP with regards to rates. I guess they are lower resolution models.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    The GFS/NAM were showing 1-2" for the last storm at about this time, and the RAP/Hrr had 4-6", and some places got 6-7".
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    6" in northern MD on 20z Hrr.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Everything is a bit west at 10-11hr 20z Hrr vs 19z
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    3-4 hours of heavy snow on 20z RAP, I-95 and NW
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