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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    The main effect of ENSO in the Northern Hemisphere is the North Pacific High It had a "Moderate" effect on the cold season NOI.. so closer to the RONI/MEI
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's probably right.. it goes with stabilization of the Earth system.. normal is much colder water than north or south, so a stabilization of the tropical equilateral is strong El Nino.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    It might actually warm up a bit in Nino 1+2 in the coming months: Does a warmer late Summer eastern ENSO region (Nino 1+2) precede an El Nino the following year (26-27)? no Slight opposite correlation actually pretty strong +anomaly correlation over Indonesia and the Philippines
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Anyway.. check out this +AO. Getting light purple on this map, almost hitting the Polar Vortex, in mid-July is pretty rare. It's 5200dm over northern Canada.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    All seasonal models seem to have a strong -PNA despite Neutral ENSO.. for the 2nd year in a row. Last year they were pretty far off though (for DJF).
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    July Euro seasonal forecast for NDJ (that's as far out as I saw it go)
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^I'd argue that we entered decadal patterns starting in the 1980s.. especially with regards to the NAO/AO. It's actually been a 50-year positive cycle, and now we've seen the PNA negative since 1998, but that can happen with cold over Montana and the Upper Midwest. I just don't think you should use recent trends as a baseline for global warming.. there is some decadal flux, just like how the 60s/70s were colder/better patterns for snow.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    March 2012 had a really strong +EPO, and I hit 90F. I think that after the arctic melted to record low levels 07-12 the extent of the warmth increased a little. +EPO's are definitely the warmest pattern though.. especially when it is in a really strong state. We've seen recently some very cold weather in the Midwest when the EPO has gone strongly negative, like -30F readings. It's always fun to see the EPO go extreme one direction or another.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Talk about a manipulation of data! So in 83 years the coldest Winter dropped, but in 50 years rose to incredible values. I don't think you can use the coldest Winter on record happening 70% through the dataset as proof.. You are comparing this past Winter with the coldest on record when it was +NAO/+WPO.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    13-14 wasn't that warm in the West. There were some +3F's in California but it was a CONUS cold year. I do think if there is El Nino in future Winters, the West Coast will have an anomalous ridge.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd have to agree, we haven't seen anything close to the +EPO in 01-02 in recent years, and how it often linked up with strong +NAO. If we had a Winter +EPO that extreme again, it might break the 70s mid-Winter in the Mid-Atlantic.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Man that 78-79 Winter sure was cold. What you guys would do for another one of these 3 consecutive Winters here in the late-1970s
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess it's just really hard to get 23c waters right on the equator. The "average" is probably more towards El Nino than "0".
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Any idea what's causing this?
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I still want to get a really strong east-based La Nina at some point.. but it may be very dry. El Nino's are for sure much wetter.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Switching to more El Nino's in the coming time may not mean colder US Winter's. I've always contended that La Nina is the colder pattern anyway if you take the static of NAO out of the equation.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    The 20 most recent warm minus cold CONUS Winter's.. 1993-2025. This is SSTA's Sept-Nov before. east-based El Nino hugging the American coast is the biggest signal July before.. +2c off of Peru there is really strong for most recent 20 years/33.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Man what a horrible SSTA map, lol Best thing is northern Indian Ocean isn't that warm.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    That was a "no chance" Winter. Things weren't even really that close. There were a few -NAO periods, but they linked up with the SE ridge because -NAO/+EPO can actually be the worst Winter pattern ever because it's dry.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    That 97-98 season was really something.. I remember being a kid and it didn't snow the entire Winter. Didn't think that was possible. The 2nd half of 96-97 was really warming though, there were buds in the trees as early as late Feb 1997. A storm on 4/1/97 was suppose to give us 12"+ of snow (I was sad it was going to kill all the Spring stuff) but it trended north at the last minute and was only rain.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I noticed it was warming as early as 09-10. There were some really warm periods in between those storms, and it didn't get down into the 10s like blizzards of the past. I think whatever "hits" takes a few years to be in effect, and that happened well before the 15-16 Strong El Nino.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Why OND?
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Late July looks hot. Aleutian high pressure developing. Should be in the 90s at least.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    SOI is finally getting out of Weak-La Nina territory 6 Jul 2025 1011.51 1014.55 -24.56 TAO/Triton subsurface has warmed a lot.. +1c near the surface.. no more central-subsurface cold pool of any significance
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    9 day lead though.. I'd rather see what their forecasts looked like 3-6 months in advance.
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