Stormchaserchuck1

Yeah, I'm honestly surprised to see Natural Gas move so much on weather this late in the season, but the model trends in the NAO/AO area are why - it's a lot of the reason. You also can't deny that Day-0 correlation between -NAO and Stratosphere warming there. It pops up at the same time from a non-negative state, so that's a few times I've seen that now in model trend in the last few years..

That's what I've been wondering. A few days ago I was commenting on the disconnect between 500mb and 10mb in the long range, now 500mb has moved somewhat toward it. I think part of the NG move has to do with the -NAO now projected March 7-12, where before they had nothing.. the SSW doesn't really get going until March 11th. It was showing a strong +AO before at 300+ hrs, now it's just a modest signal, but still lower heights over the arctic circle. I've run the correlations, and there is a mean +40dm -NAO signal at Day+0 with SSW (pretty weak), while a +120dm +time (can range from +60 days in October to +10-15 days in March/early April)... so strengthening SSW signal may also be a slightly higher -NAO correlation for like the last week of March and early April.

Models have been trending significantly colder in the long range fwiw. The Euro at 300hr has a -NAO pattern.. before it was showing 70s. There is also the possibility of a cool down the last week of March and early April due to -NAO from lagged Stratosphere warming.. remember, -NAO's effect Europe too.

I just added up the years to find the relative warming trend, and divided it by that. I honestly haven't looked too much into the RONI.

If you adjust for global warming (to still have an even amount of Nina and Nino events), we still need -0.3c or lower for JFM for it to be La Nina.. If Nino 3.4 is 0.0 on March 1st, that's not looking likely to happen.

Natural Gas up 8% today.. maybe that storm has a chance. It is a southern jet piece running into a trough.

I think so, Weak La Nina. SOI has also been positive now 7 months in a row, although not strong.. again a borderline Weak Nina indicator.

Before significantly lowering snowfall averages, understand its been a 25-year decadal La Nina state. Notice the High pressure north and south of Nino 3.4, the largest global anomaly (when the Poles have 3x more average volatility).

I wish the title wasn't La Nina.. it's going to be a ENSO Neutral year/peak.

Showing this year it's more a product of the pattern than a leader... although I do think it reflects global patterns that are happening.

-QBO about 90% probable for next Winter... That makes a possible El Nino a bigger deal, with El Nino/-QBO, we get more Stratosphere warmings. 23-24 had 4 separate Winter 10mb warmings.

Pretty big SSW. It would be the first of the cold season.

The low is projected to be 978-979mb in Missouri and Illinois.. maybe they think it will overperform north. I think it's a little too cold up this way for severe wx.

Sorry, but with that N. Pacific High pressure, it's going to bleed warmer in trend downstream.

Here was the GFS https://ibb.co/7dtxM0P9

Maybe we'll turn to some -NAO conditions the last week of March, into early April.. At this time of year the -NAO is 3x more correlated to Stratosphere warming at +15 days vs +0-day.

Storms are moving more W->E, vs S->N lately. Part of that is because patterns like -EPO were more present this Winter, but it's partially an anomaly too. We didn't have a big trough off the west coast in the Gulf of Canada like is typical for us to have big snowstorms, especially in the 2nd half of the Winter there was weak ridging there.

Does a March Stratosphere warming precede a later year El Nino? There is actually a cold 10mb March correlation to following the Fall's +ENSO (map default is positive, + and - included).

Really warming up early today. Already past forecasted high.

Does a relative +PNA Winter precede a later year El Nino? We had an anomalous, relatively positive, PNA this Winter with strong -PDO conditions in the Fall and a borderline Weak La Nina. The thought is, does the atmosphere lead ENSO? Based on 75 years of historical data, the answer is no. Here is the +10 month condition ENSO SSTs with earlier in the year PNA (both pos and neg considered, but the map default is positive) ENSO +10 months after a Winter +PNA Slight opposite correlation.

There's a little Greenland ridge trying to pop at Day 7, but the long range is about as +AO as it gets.

Ensembles say 70s are possible.

^I was about to comment on how the Day 14-16 model projections are about as uniform +AO as it gets throughout the N. Hemisphere. Kind of amazing that 10mb is projected to be warm then, but they are not always connected. Actually I did research once that found that +time lag on Stratosphere warmings are 3x more correlated to the -NAO than Day+0. In this case, a mid to late March warming would correlate with -NAO conditions the last week of March and into early April, as the usual time lag at this time of year is +15 days.

The last 2 Winter's before this one were stormy in the SW, US. I think LA had their coldest January on record 2 years ago. The theory is that weather out there leads us by years.

Same place as we were last year at this time. Summer has been ridgy on the Pacific side. SW, US drought correlates with -PDO rolled forward up to years. Not good that they had so much High pressure this Winter imo.