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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    You're right.. I underrated the -PDO this year. 5/5 non+PNA Mod/Strong Nino Winter's is a pretty compelling stat! If -PNA is wetter and +PNA is drier, imagine how much the difference is if you don't account for ENSO! +PNA's have been associated with El Nino's 80% of the time historically, and visa-versa. With wetter than average conditions in El Nino, what a difference the PNA makes in precip-correlation in non-ENSO times. That's why -PNA's in El Nino's have been historically good with -NAO/AO conditions. The Hadley Cell is just expanded right now.. With storms digging into the West Coast the last two Winters though, I don't know that, that isn't in the process of changing..
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z Hrr has a brief period of snow at the end.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Major trough in the NW on LR 12z GEFS.. that's been the Spring pattern lately. https://ibb.co/ZBq1Dqm
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    I know if we get a Stratosphere warming soon, like a lot of models are saying, we could get a bigger -NAO down the line. That was really my basis for thinking this could be a better Winter. This will be the 3rd Stratosphere warming.. another strong ENSO/strong QBO hit on 10mb conditions.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I like the EPO negative, and +PNA we haven't really seen this Winter. I was just pointing out that LR models have been really bad, they keep showing an El Nino pattern, but since the El Nino developed in April, we never had a +pna. In Oct-Nov, I was saying the mean pattern in the SW N. Pacific was a ridge for a Strong Nino! It's no surprise the Euro weeklies busted and we only have some weak +pna in the medium range here. I'm worried that next Winter the pendulum may swing completely toward what you are calling -PDO. I get what you are saying about patterns that used to work.. and I agree, the PNA has a precipitation correlation here that is actually greater than the temperature correlation in the Wintertime! That means, the net air temps+precip makes -PNA more favorable for snow than +PNA. The deceiving thing is coastal lows form much stronger in +PNA, there is a +0.3 correlation vs -0.3 for -PNA.. so if you look at SLP you would say +PNA Is the obvious better pattern for snow. I think it's somewhat +AMO related. We've been getting this ridge where the Hadley Cell meets the mid-latitude Cell.. it started on the West coast, and especially the SW where it stopped raining after 1995. The Pacific Jet used to go into SF a lot, now it doesn't even rain there anymore.. the jet goes all the way up into Alaska.. Over the last few years, that pattern in the mid-latitudes has made it to the east coast. The AMO changed in 1995, so I would say maybe wait for that to wane.. also, according to the CPC we aren't getting -NAO's nearly as much these days, and the WPO has been positive a lot.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Man that 50/50 low really went away. What a bad modeled feature!
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah we got 7-9"! Too bad it was the very middle of Winter in an ultra-favorable blocking pattern lol. We aren't doing it any other way these days.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    This isn't that favorable of a 500mb +WPO/+EPO.. NAO isn't that strong one way or another, CPC actually has the NAO positive for the Winter so far. I agree that the base-state is -PNA/-PDO right now. It may be connected to the +AMO cycle and general Hadley Cell expansion. I think these decadal cycles wane eventually.. I was half expecting us to have a Winter like 57-58 this year.. the PDO went from ridiculous negative to nonmatter that Winter.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Dude.. the -NAO is so weak now. I was right, when storms start cutting on models, and surface goes warmer, the models are usually adjusting the upper latitudes too. That's what happened. The blocks you and brooklynwx keep showing are ridiculous. We are no where near that -NAO strength. There is no disconnect also. It's fitting what we've seen over the last 2-5 years. But like I said before, when we are hitting -PNA at the end of this cycle, the SE ridge flexes/EC gets warm.. I'd watch for that later in the month and possibly next Winter.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is now a -3c pocket in the central-subsurface on TAO/Triton maps. NOAA said 55% chance La Nina develops by the Summer a little while ago, based on the subsurface. It may be a little higher now.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since it's slow, I'll say again that NG is 1.86, the over/under on March temps in the NE/GL's with this is +5-7F. My guess is because models want to develop a -NAO/AO from the February Stratosphere warming, there may be -PNA/+EPO in March.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't bet on fluke heavy snow in the SE. There is heavy trend against it. Even when the upper latitude pattern is favorable for them the last two Winters, it's not even really close.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nobody's into it, but we get some wrap around flurries Tuesday on the 0z NAM. Low pressure is really strong, 980s mb right when it exits the coast off of Ocean City.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    RAP.. whew
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Up where I live in Harford County, I might get 45 minutes of heavy snow.. may add up to a dusting or 1/2". For the 5-10% chance, A small shift south could be a big deal though.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z Hrr fwiw was colder than the NAM with the 0 line at 48hrs https://ibb.co/s1FZmsS
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really close for northern MD on the 18z NAM. Close, but a miss. 850mb temps are near 0 at hr63 heavy precip close Actual SL low is off of Ocean City MD..
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAM is definitely more amped this run https://ibb.co/vhgMX70
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z GEFS: PNA is negative for "PSU storm".. I don't care what the NAO is doing, the Pacific has overwhelmed the Atlantic constantly since 18-19. I mean, with the way it's trending, we may end up in the 50s. I still think PD is our best shot at snow, because it has the most favorable upper latitude pattern. When subsurface ENSO changes happen, the N. Pacific pattern does adjust, sometimes even despite what is going on at the surface. It's a fairly successful forecasting method. The -NAO/-PNA/+EPO, +NAO/+PNA/-EPO correlation is holding. Models were showing a break, but it backed off of the short term -NAO, associated with +PNA, and went stronger on long range -NAO associated with -PNA.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really getting warm out today.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Warm out, 60 degrees, and I love it. I've been seeing all this Spring grazing birds, and they are moving like it's March-April..
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    See PSU this is what's happening https://ibb.co/x70S0hq
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    We lose the -EPO and the Japan ridge is moving east. In verification, Surface temps would be a problem I think.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Did you guys see my NG research? It's since fallen down to 1.83 https://ibb.co/kxdbZSs
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO isn't even stronger on our side of the globe. https://ibb.co/zFvdTQv 0.38 correlation in February to Air Temps https://ibb.co/XDCcQyq https://ibb.co/P6KD38J
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