Stormchaserchuck1

The H5 would have to lead, which is what happened last winter. The theory with the PDO is that there is SST/pattern feedback, which I'm not sure I completely agree with, as the air may lead more than water. But "the PDO rising" is talking about a PNA-PDO connection, which you would actually be better off making a composite of Fall PNA analogs and running that forward. In late November last year the pattern shifted, and it was not a classic -PDO-like Winter until later in March. That's just saying, imo, that the PDO is not 100%.

July PDO.. the lowest monthly reading on record, going back to the 1800s. Beating last October's record, which was -3.81

yeah! https://www.si.com/betting/super-bowl-odds-public-betting-trends-every-nfl-team-01k1g90y4v4q Super Bowl Odds Baltimore Ravens +650 Buffalo Bills +700 Philadelphia Eagles +750 Kansas City Chiefs +800 Detroit Lions +1100 Los Angeles Rams +1700 Washington Commanders +1900 San Francisco 49ers +1900 Minnesota Vikings +2100 Green Bay Packers +2200 Cincinnati Bengals +2300 Houston Texans +2500 Los Angeles Chargers +2600 Denver Broncos +2900 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2900 Arizona Cardinals +4300 Chicago Bears +4400 Pittsburgh Steelers +4400 Dallas Cowboys +4700 Seattle Seahawks +5500 Jacksonville Jaguars +6500 Atlanta Falcons +6500 Indianapolis Colts +7500 New England Patriots +8000 Miami Dolphins +10000 Carolina Panthers +10000 Las Vegas Raiders +11000 Tennessee Titans +17000 New York Jets +25000 New York Giants +27000 Cleveland Browns +33000 New Orleans Saints +40000

I never got the ACE/Winter relationship. It seems a little dreamy. A caveat is there are probably macro factors that correlate the two variables. Last Winter we did have colder weather after a high Atlantic ACE, with some (although short timed) -NAO and -AO bouts. The top Winter analog years after high Atlantic ACE does have an unusually east-based -NAO Winter, but it could be because of not enough examples. I haven't heard of Winter cold coming after a low ACE season though, and I don't know that it will actually be a low ACE season.. the NAO/AO have been positive thus far, but long range models are trying to neutralize that going into mid-August. These positive AO periods the last 2 years have been complete shut down of Atlantic activity - but that's the macro variable, the +AO. It might be easier and a bit more accurate to run that variable forward.

The CANSIPS busted horribly on its July forecast from a 0.0 month lead, in terms of US temperatures. The Euro is a much better performing seasonal model, but I don't know when its monthly forecasts update. The Euro though performed really badly for last DJF, I'm surprised seasonal models don't do better.. they seem to heavily weight ENSO. The year before (23-24) the Euro kept showing cold H5 over the Mid-Atlantic for the Winter mean. We got almost no snow that Winter, and it was the warmest Winter on record for the CONUS. The -PDO/east-based El Nino analog composite for 23-24 worked very well, though.

We've had a really strong/consistent North Pacific High pressure pattern (-PNA), especially in February and March. It's a pattern, and is associated with cold-phase ENSO and PDO. The anomaly Feb-March 2018-2025, for a 8-year-consecutive period, actually breaks #2 on the all time anomaly list by +30%. Then in the Atlantic we have had 14 straight positive or neutral NAO Winters since 2011-2012. In that time, 18/18 Winter months (DJFM) with a NAO value >1.11 have all been positive [CPC]. We've had some -AO and -EPO periods during that time, which have delivered very strong arctic shots to the Midwest, but they have not been long lasting. Why is this pattern occurring? A possibility is the low sunspots 2003-2022, as that 20-year period had the lowest sunspots, since the 1800s. There might be a lag, so the strong rebound of Solar activity over the last 2 years may help change up the pattern going forward (my theory). We may also be in a decadal +NAO phase, which could last about 20 more years, just based on the wave fluctuations over the last 150 years. We also seem to be a the peak of a -PDO phase (cold ENSO-like), with October 2024 and probably July 2025 having the lowest monthly readings on record.. it could take some time to neutralize or change that long term state, which started in 1998.

August DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 2.0 2.3 2.3

Pretty good NE Pacific High this June-July Analogs Following September

Did someone say continuous +AO?

Wonder if we'll start to see this typical La Nina Fall pattern as temperatures start to descend into August

I think this strong STJ and very wet pattern is going to shut down pretty soon.

Subsurface is approaching -6c right now.. if that's normally 65F water, right now it's 55F. That's raw, not adjusted for global warming and everything.. I do think that it really can't go much lower than this given how warm everything is, without it being some anomaly. And the subsurface does fluctuate more than the surface (Kelvin/Rossby waves) It's still July.. if Aug comes in <-0.5 ONI, it has a good chance of making it 5 straight months.. even Sept would have to carry only through January for an official Nina. Tropical tidbits currently has Nino 3.4 at -0.6c, but I know CPC is much warmer.. looks like they are -0.1 to -0.2

East Coast coastal lows most correlated in February, big difference in coastal lows El Nino vs La Nina though.. that's why I don't think unideal winter tracks during the La Nina decadal state of late is that big of a deal.

Strongest correlation with the North Pacific High is January I guess the lag from Pacific to the east coast makes it seem like the most impacted month is February.

I remember doubting you when the subsurface was so warm in the Spring. You held to model biases/etc. and it ended up being a nice call. PhillyEaglesfan was also very adamant last year with the -PDO being so strong and us going into a La Nina for this year.

Nice job @PhiEaglesfan712 @GaWx for being bullish on La Nina prospects this year.

July will be the 10th consecutive month with +SOI. We did 31 straight +SOI months 2020-early 2023. The decadal La Nina state is holding, through the SOI.

La Nina is developing At the very least, this should mean a warm Fall. Increased chances for -PNA this Winter if that strong cold pool maintains (subsurface has more flux than surface SSTs. It could wane in the coming months. It did last year.)

La Nina is developing At the very least, this should mean a warm Fall. Increased chances for -PNA this Winter if that strong cold pool maintains.

You think that will enhance MJO Phases 4-5-6 in the Wintertime?

Electric storm to my south. They are probably getting crushed over Baltimore. Probably the best storm of the season.

Did you ever see what Feb 1936 looked like in Montana? Summer 1935 Phoenix had more 100+ consecutive days vs every other year on record to that point. That specific datapoint really did well last year rolled forward, Valentine Nebraska hit -32F in late February last year.

-5c now showing up in the TAO/Triton subsurface. That is "Moderate-Nina like".

It does seem like Atlantic SSTAs are not that different from the overall global warming trend. The cold in the 1970s and 1980s was notable and anomalous, but we might not get anything like that in the future, it may also just be a longer trend than we realize, thinking that there won't be cold Atlantic SSTs for the next 20 years or so. I was actually swimming in the south Carribean this Summer, the water was colder than I expected. There is definitely room for more warming

Is that for real? I know that from what I've experienced, there is not much difference from the Summers now and when I was a kid, actually it seemed a little hotter when I was a kid with more black-sky thunderstorms. I know there was a wave of "warmer Summer min's" in the early 2000s, but it doesn't seem to be an over-inflated trend, the temperature progression of Summers. On the west coast it is a different story, it's much warmer and drier. It may be more of a pattern: the drought in the SW, US started in 1995. Phoenix had broken records every Summer 2022-2024 I think until this Summer.