Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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PNA just not budging with this El Nino May could be the 4th consecutive month with -pna Not really much of a consistency rolled forward, historically. -
Wish every day could be like today
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^You were right about it shifting east, like other Strong Nino's. I have seen cold pools get stuck in the middle-west for the last few years, and kind of thought this year could follow the same trend with Nino 4 getting warm so early.
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Nino vs the dry pattern
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Up to 94 here in the woods.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I just saw my first cloud!- 1,750 replies
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Hmm I'm not sure it's a wet pattern right now
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91F.. I'm usually 5-7 degrees cooler than DCA, not today.
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AO and NAO are usually about 0.85 correlated, but they are running apart this year: AO is -1.0 for 2026 so far, NAO is +4.4. March AO was +2 though. It has basically exactly neutral correlation April to May, and March to May [1948-2020]. There is a slight -EPO correlation actually March +AO to May- May is a little cooler temp wise in the CONUS after +AO March, which we have seen at least in the 1st half.
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88 here at 12:20. Not a cloud in the sky
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Nino 1+2 was close to 0.0 in 09-10. It was also the #1 most -NAO Winter on record, going back to the mid-1800s. Kind of interesting that we are batting 0-22 on Winter NAO months > +1.11 starting after just 1 year after that.
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Believe it or not, April and May have a slight inverse correlation. There is 0.1 tendency for the NAO in these months to reverse each other.
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Might see a little bit of a spike happening in the next few weeks/months
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March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs) The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27)
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You don't want to bite the bullet with a Strong Nino STJ. I guess it matters a little more in the Mid-Atlantic.
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Pretty interesting that warm water extends all the way from South America to the Phillippines along the equator, as bluewave pointed out.
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Jan 2024 had a pretty good -NAO with some cold coming underneath of northern latitude ridging. It was a pattern break from the -NAO bouts always hooking up with SE ridge 2018-2023.
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Even that was a -PNA Winter We haven't had classic Strong Nino since 2016
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March-Apr 2026 had a combined NAO of +4.08
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Yeah, this last March was 2nd most positive NAO in all of records. We know that decadal phase is peaking around now as the last Winter month (DJFM) under -1.11 NAO was Dec 2010. 22 winter months >+1.11 during that time.
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Eastern subsurface is roasting.. these are the highest daily anomalies on TAO/Triton of the event so far.. +6.5c
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23-24 was "la nino" which I'm afraid we are on pace to repeat. Dec-Mar was very wet though, so line up a -NAO and it could be good just like other Strong Nino's. DJF NAO 23-24 was +1.08/month that Winter.. since March is not recently much of a Winter month
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DJFM averaged out positive, +0.05/month. December had -0.97 but +EPO overwhelmed it. the negative H5 in the pacific extended north to +EPO that Winter, which dominated. It had short periods of blocking.
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Yeah, a pure 82-83 or 97-98 type Nino wouldn't be bad if it happened like 6 times out of 10. you might still get above average temps, but line up a -NAO with the STJ... I contend that +NAO isn't a constant with east-based Nino's like history suggests, It's more random than it appears in limited analogs.
