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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    +Heights over AK is even better! But that W. Pacific High is starting to encroach on latest guidance.. do you worry about that suffocating the +PNA low? It has been a trend of the last 7 years, especially in February..
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    These big gaps mid-Winter are like "meh" I am ready for Spring. It will be kind of annoying to have a lot of snow that melts in 2-3 days.. then is in like the 50s. Or 45 that feels like 60 lol December-mid Jan snows are so much better
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just looking at the AO.. wow, it's suppose to go negative! https://ibb.co/0mY5FQR
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nina/+QBO can strengthen the 10mb PV, which can make it much more difficult to have -AO conditions, like this year.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I disagree that 09-10 is the limit. The global precipitation has been increasing with the warming. I think a more realistic expectation is that the temperature keeps increasing, but the number of bigger storms increases too. That was the trend in the early 2000s through about 2016, then 7-8 years off of it doesn't really break the overall trend imo. Look at how much precipitable water we have this year. https://ibb.co/NjZ5TZ8 No other year really comes close. 15-16 is #2, at about 80% of the total anomaly.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Do you really believe that? NYC just had a pretty amazing 40" streak not a decade ago. The predominant pattern lately is -PNA, which of course could change, as the 50s and 60s were the last time -PNA was so common. In +PNA I think NYC does much better.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's the PD threat There is a low in SE Canada, but there is also a 1043mb High in south-central Canada, so the average of those two areas right now is 1021mb. Maybe that northern stream piece could possibly phase in the perfect scenario as the upper latitude indices are mostly favorable for the general time.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice -EPO popping at hr210.. we'll probably start the cold pattern around Valentines Day.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look how much we recently lost the warm subsurface anomalies https://ibb.co/tX8w6Pj Big disconnect between the surface and subsurface right now (+1.9/0.0) The start of the end of the El Nino, after a few weeks it should probably start to sharply drop to more Neutral conditions by the Spring.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would say we get something before then. The unretrograded N. Pacific low in the Gulf of Alaska is really a recipe for a monster, if everything times right. Look at how the Euro amped up this pre-Valentines wave. https://ibb.co/tLxxhB9
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    That fits the double blocking pattern https://ibb.co/2P1Pjdt Higher precip in the SW: https://ibb.co/Fxv790Y
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Their analogs keep the cold around for a while. This is up to Day+15 https://ibb.co/yhjBLNZ
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    The 12z GEFS looks cold for Feb 19-20, with a new signal to have a block in the Arctic Circle north of Alaska! https://ibb.co/nL3YXtw Now it's a matter of amplifying the STJ, because we have two perfect low positions in the 50/50 spot and south of the Gulf of Alaska. That High pressure north of Alaska though is called -EP/NH and has a strong tendency to be a cold pattern: H5 https://ibb.co/m09t85m US Surface Temps https://ibb.co/gwg8WWB
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yes.. something is going to need to change between H5 and the surface though. -EPO is an underrated cold pattern.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Crazy if we get rain with this H5 https://ibb.co/YR9gdSH I guess they will back off of it on future runs..
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    A trough in the east... you would think with the Atlantic blocking hooking up with -EPO at 384hr of GEFS you would have more severe cold.. I guess the Euro is the slightly warmer model right now.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Day 10 Euro tries to develop -EPO/+PNA/-NAO.. it's early, but I like that there are +heights over AK vs the GEFS at that time.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess the point is that the -NAO may be more likely to sustain giving the 10mb warming expected to occur ~ Feb 15-16.. I'm just saying based on how it hasn't held for like 14 years it may be a little harder than it seems..
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    A # of composites showing the same thing. Sometimes it would go -250, -250.. -100, 0, -50, -250, -300, -350. But the thing is, there were a lot that went +250, +150, 0, -150, -250, -350... so after like 100 examples, you had a clear time lag that had the highest correlation between 500mb and 10mb (and it was not D+0), the "+time" was about 3x stronger. There was also not less +time -NAO's if the D+0 nao was negative.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    You do a lot of researches, it could be worth it sometime to go back through the daily climate composite dataset and compare 10mb to 500mb. I found that negative events (strong 10mb vortex) correlated to +AO at 0-days all times of the Winter, and there was a strong lag-time (+10-45 days whether it was early or late in the Winter), regardless of if, there was a strong -NAO the day of the 10mb warming, for almost all warming events. The linear difference in times of the year with 3x the average -NAO +lag vs initial was a very compelling find, based on 75 years of data.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    As we get into March, the typical lag is +10-15 days, vs +45 days in November, but history says that's how it usually happens.. Even in the examples where there would be a monster -NAO the day of the 10mb warming, it would usually come back to spike up later in the allotted time.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    2010 is the last time I saw so much arctic blocking.. easily carrying over from the Atlantic into Alaska with >+100dm everywhere along the way. Now for it to hold as we get closer..
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    If we have another wave 10mb warming, it may be longer into March.. but we are still in a +nao era, as like 8/42 Winter months lately have come in negative or something like that, and big -NAO's lately have been lasting an average of 8-12 days. I think it may come up sooner than expected, maybe at the end of February. Then it might go negative again in March. GaWx in the ENSO thread said yesterday's models had Feb 15-16 as the 10mb warming peak, which would favor -NAO ~March 2-7.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've seen a lot of people say "it's propagating or not" (when the 10mb high/low connects with 500mb/surface at Day+0).. but it doesn't really happen like that. Correlations I've found is that no matter what the NAO signature is a 0-day, it has a higher correlation +10-40 days (depending when in the Winter it is), even if it's "making it to the surface" or not at 0-day. The Jan 13-24 10mb warming does have correlation to -NAO conditions ~Feb 3-20 (or sometime around there), just based on 75 years of data. It's not something that can be easily seen "as hitting now or not" at Day-0, although sometimes the mechanism of the 10mb warming stretches all atmospheric layers.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    -NAO/-AO really showing up as a beast on the 12z GEFS https://ibb.co/YR9gdSH I haven't seen it cover such a large area of the Polar domain in a long time.. (It's a 384hr model though). It seems like we've been at 384hr for a while, but they are getting better day-by-day. The problem with NAO getting too strong is, it can suppress storms. Here's a 0.4-0.5 precip correlation over the Mid Atlantic in February: https://ibb.co/8zrBxYf That's why a lot of big storms happen when the block lifts out.. But I do think energy in the southern US along the STJ is the sign of a wetter pattern. Really a cold pattern though, with the Atlantic ridge connecting with -EPO.. almost all you can ask for.. Still has the near 50/50 low, south of GOA low, central-southern US STJ energy to come east for Feb 19-20.
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