Stormchaserchuck1

After a quick review, it looks like the early-1900s were more +NAO. This looks more cyclical since the 1890s, and although 3 swings is not much, it may even run in 50-year cycles, which we could actually be in the middle of.

I was using DJFM, but it's interesting to see that there's still only 1 example in 14 years, using DJF. +0.25 is not that much. There isn't NAO data from the 1930s, but imo the 1930s through early 1950s were probably more +NAO.

I'm not so sure the NAO is tied to CC. Why have other seasons had -NAO's, some strong -NAO? The Winter NAO state for the last 14 years is a bit of an anomaly, because it hasn't happened that way in other seasons. Don't get me wrong, I would say the trend is warmer and less snowy, but that N. Atlantic pressure index has not been favorable. With more global precipitable water now though, I think a -NAO these days would be less dry than several decades ago.

I would take -NAO though. It's about a 0.5 or 75% correlation. Since 11-12, the lowest Winter NAO (DJFM) we have had is -0.14! And in that time there have been 18 Winter months >+1.12 NAO and 0 Winter months <-1.12 NAO. Remember, the NAO is a SLP measurement, so it's not always aligned with 500mb. We know about the record snow drought for PHL-NYC the last 7-8 years.. and every one of them has been +NAO. Not a perfect correlation, but a good one..

^Very interesting! The NAO looks to be pretty positive for the next 7 days, which is anti-Atlantic tripole. Remember, May is kind of a sensitive month for south-central Atlantic warming and the following season.

Pretty nice Aleutian High pattern getting going at Day 13+ on the GEFS. Let's see what happens, that is associated with possibly some cooling in the ENSO subsurface, and a short term trend to more -PDO. Could pop a nice ridge in the Midwest, too.

I think it's more after the fact. Now, I think in a long term PDO phase, the subsurface moves to the state, and the thermocline does have impact on the H5 pattern (subsurface takes longer to change, longer to move back). However, that didn't work out so good last Winter, when we were coming off of a record 4-year -PDO period and the +PNA was mostly present. Since November, the only strong Aleutian High pattern that we have seen was Jan 15 - Feb 10. Just 1 example. A shift has generally occurred. It will be interesting to see how that progresses in the Summer. The PDO doesn't have real high year-to-year correlations believe it or not, and even +several months its correlation wanes. A lot of the high-correlation-PDO composites that you see are because the PNA impacts it in now-time.

Orioles tied for 2nd worst record in the AL right now. I knew those 6th place world series betting odds preseason were too bullish.

Really nice cold 500mb +NAO for the next 7 days. That's what I want to see more of through the late Spring/Summer to have more -EPO next Winter.

I think you did pretty good Ray.

In 2001, I was driving from Phoenix to San Diego. It was 111 degrees. In the middle of the trip, we hit a hail storm that must have stalled out over the same spot for 2 hours. There was 5-6" of hail on the ground. We had to pull over and wait for it to partially melt. The car temp dropped to 46 degrees in the middle of the hail storm.. it was a wild sight with cactus' completely covered in ice. That area can get a good dumping because storms don't move much.. I think the hail on the ground only covered a 1-mile radius.

October 2024 was the strongest monthly PDO on record, at -3.81. Rolled forward +15 months to 2 Winter's later, the tendency is slight -PNA, but a little bit more of a -NAO here (map is default positive, so it's the opposite) The 1-year lead PDO doesn't appear to be that impactful for 15 months later (testing the subsurface PDO theory), but there is a slight -PNA signal.

We are still in decadal -PDO. The problem with that is that the index was so extremely negative the last few years, that even if there is a rebound, the subsurface is still pretty warm in the North Pacific PDO region. We were rebounding nicely in the PDO through the late Winter and March.. Now I think it has stabilized with the NOAA PDO index still near -1, and other readings are near -0.5 (Gawx knows more about this difference). Nino 1+2 being so warm in March rolled forward to a nice +PDO composite for November, but now Nino 1+2 has dropped to negative, so I don't know that, that is still valid. I would guess it stays near neutral, or slightly negative, but the only real strong Aleutian High pressure we have had since November was Jan 15 - Feb 10. Just one example of that really. It does seem to have changed a bit in the N. Pacific compared to the last few years.

I'm surprised that you didn't jump on that 1970-now warming image, since the 1970s were one of the coldest decades

December Natural Gas contract is almost right at $5... I usually say below $5 favors +NAO, and above $5 favors -NAO.. below $3 stronger +NAO, and above $8 stronger -NAO.. So right now almost exactly neutral on NAO prediction there. March '26 Natural Gas is $4.20.. a slight +NAO lean for later in the Winter.

QBO should be negative.. March to April went from +11 to +6. When it changes phases it usually lasts at least 10 months. -QBO with El Nino favors Stratosphere warmings, but ENSO looks to be more Neutral this Winter. -QBO's with neg-Neutral ENSO have been known for cold December's then switching to warmer Jan-Feb (89-90, 05-06), but there's not enough data to say that for sure. My N. Atlantic SST method predicted +0.52 NAO last Winter (DJFM), and it ended up being +0.65. That makes it 15-5 on getting the right sign in real time since I came up with it in 2005. Also 11-9 within the estimated standard deviation of +0.54. The index runs May-Sept, so it's too early to say where it's going right now.

CPC's DJF 2025-26 Winter outlook

Storms approaching me from the south. A good bit of lightning with this one, CC branches.

Yeah, thunderstorm lines seem to max out around here. Baltimore city gets some pretty good action too.

That cell posted 80dbz again, almost right on I-95 in Cecil County.

Just missed me by 10 miles. My power did go out briefly. There are some cool dark cloud pictures of the storm from Baltimore, as it passed just north of the city.

80dbz with that cell on the Balt county/Harford county border.. probably some large hail with that.

December contract of Natural Gas is making a pretty good run the last few days.. it's getting near that $5 even mark for Winter NAO

I'm sticking with the Over/Under at 15-16 Named Storms.

-QBO and neg-Neutral ENSO has been associated with cold December's. 1989 and 2005 are examples. But there really isn't that much data to make such a conclusion, especially with something being near neutral.