Stormchaserchuck1

Usually you like to see the subsurface colder if an official La Nina is to emerge

They are colder than I am for ENSO the rest of this year, but they probably have good reason with models coming within range.

I'm surprised that they favor a La Nina over ENSO Neutral for the rest of this year, just based on the ONI.. I guess they expect cooling in the coming months, along with seasonal models. SOI last year never went strong positive when a lot of things were pointing to a Moderate-Strong La Nina early in the year, and it ended up being an accurate predictor, per ONI it never even went La Nina last year. The SOI has been positive, July could be 10 months in row, although only slightly so, so I guess they are thinking it will accurately predict again.

I didn't see the post. Do you have a link?

This year, climate models seem to support a cooling of ENSO in the coming months. The SOI has been a good gauge for a few years now.. it has been positive for the last few days. A positive July would be the 10th straight month with +SOI, which would be a la nina or cold enso indicator. The subsurface was really warm in the western subsurface in the spring, but has since neutralized.. so yeah, maybe near neutral, or slightly cool for the rest of this year.

I'm starting to think the odds of an El Nino next year are lower, but higher chances 2 years from now (27-28).. maybe a Weak El Nino next year

For the 2nd point, I'm explaining the relative ENSO index. Since the whole globe is warming, it maps ENSO relative to that global warming skew.. so I'm saying that if global SSTs are +0.5 warmer on average, if Nino 3.4 (the strongest correlated ENSO region of the 4) is +0.5, that is actually even with the global skew, or "0.0". It's called the RONI, and in the last 20 years the RONI has had better correlation with the northern and southern hemisphere Hadley Cell pattern (-PNA) than regular ENSO (ONI).

I actually found that in the last 33 years our warmest Winters for the whole US have been in east-based El Nino's albeit, rare as they are. I think that means in the coming time El Nino's, and east-based El Nino's may happen with warmer Winters.

In the coming time, there will probably be 60% El Nino's, or +20% more than La Nina's.. it's just really interesting that after the 97-98 Super El Nino the opposite occurred. That's probably not a sustainable pattern though, and will probably switch in the coming time. That's why they have also developed the "RONI", which is relative average compared to the global warming (if global warming is +0.5, and Nino 3.4 is 0.0, that's a -0.5 RONI).

Global warming is associated with a stabilization of the Earth climate.. less low pressures/wind, more high pressures. Since the Tropical Pacific is associated with strong winds as an "average", cooling the waters as much as 3-5c along the equator for "neutral" compared to areas north and south, then an El Nino, and actually strong El Nino, is a stabilization of that system. This is not what has happened since 1998... we have actually seen cold SSTs relative to the global warming on the order of 4-5 standard deviations below normal during that time.. the thought is that more El Nino's will happen in the coming time to even this system out, as a product of global warming. However, the last 27 years is a very interesting datapoint because something is causing an opposite pattern.

The +AO coming up is so extreme, it had to even out with massive ridges in northern Europe/Greenland, and NE of Japan, a short time after. The actual H5 gets down to 5080dm just south of Alert, Canada later on today!

Yes.. there is also a 5900dm ridge in northern Sweden in 2 days. Both this one and the ridge NE of Japan trended on models in the last few days.. they weren't there this strong in the longer range.

Big time ridge NE of Japan in the +4-7 Day. In the last few years we've been seeing these Summer H5 anomalies, touching 6000dm, in areas that already had very anomalous +SSTs.

The frequency of La Nina's 1998-2025 is actually an anomaly in the global warming. Earth patterns were suppose to relax, or stabilize, which is default El Nino state. Check it out.. all warm cold The La Nina Standard Deviation in the last 27 years is about negative 4-5 sigma.

The main effect of ENSO in the Northern Hemisphere is the North Pacific High It had a "Moderate" effect on the cold season NOI.. so closer to the RONI/MEI

That's probably right.. it goes with stabilization of the Earth system.. normal is much colder water than north or south, so a stabilization of the tropical equilateral is strong El Nino.

It might actually warm up a bit in Nino 1+2 in the coming months: Does a warmer late Summer eastern ENSO region (Nino 1+2) precede an El Nino the following year (26-27)? no Slight opposite correlation actually pretty strong +anomaly correlation over Indonesia and the Philippines

Anyway.. check out this +AO. Getting light purple on this map, almost hitting the Polar Vortex, in mid-July is pretty rare. It's 5200dm over northern Canada.

All seasonal models seem to have a strong -PNA despite Neutral ENSO.. for the 2nd year in a row. Last year they were pretty far off though (for DJF).

July Euro seasonal forecast for NDJ (that's as far out as I saw it go)

^I'd argue that we entered decadal patterns starting in the 1980s.. especially with regards to the NAO/AO. It's actually been a 50-year positive cycle, and now we've seen the PNA negative since 1998, but that can happen with cold over Montana and the Upper Midwest. I just don't think you should use recent trends as a baseline for global warming.. there is some decadal flux, just like how the 60s/70s were colder/better patterns for snow.

March 2012 had a really strong +EPO, and I hit 90F. I think that after the arctic melted to record low levels 07-12 the extent of the warmth increased a little. +EPO's are definitely the warmest pattern though.. especially when it is in a really strong state. We've seen recently some very cold weather in the Midwest when the EPO has gone strongly negative, like -30F readings. It's always fun to see the EPO go extreme one direction or another.

Talk about a manipulation of data! So in 83 years the coldest Winter dropped, but in 50 years rose to incredible values. I don't think you can use the coldest Winter on record happening 70% through the dataset as proof.. You are comparing this past Winter with the coldest on record when it was +NAO/+WPO.

13-14 wasn't that warm in the West. There were some +3F's in California but it was a CONUS cold year. I do think if there is El Nino in future Winters, the West Coast will have an anomalous ridge.

I'd have to agree, we haven't seen anything close to the +EPO in 01-02 in recent years, and how it often linked up with strong +NAO. If we had a Winter +EPO that extreme again, it might break the 70s mid-Winter in the Mid-Atlantic.