Stormchaserchuck1

July Euro seasonal forecast for NDJ (that's as far out as I saw it go)

^I'd argue that we entered decadal patterns starting in the 1980s.. especially with regards to the NAO/AO. It's actually been a 50-year positive cycle, and now we've seen the PNA negative since 1998, but that can happen with cold over Montana and the Upper Midwest. I just don't think you should use recent trends as a baseline for global warming.. there is some decadal flux, just like how the 60s/70s were colder/better patterns for snow.

March 2012 had a really strong +EPO, and I hit 90F. I think that after the arctic melted to record low levels 07-12 the extent of the warmth increased a little. +EPO's are definitely the warmest pattern though.. especially when it is in a really strong state. We've seen recently some very cold weather in the Midwest when the EPO has gone strongly negative, like -30F readings. It's always fun to see the EPO go extreme one direction or another.

Talk about a manipulation of data! So in 83 years the coldest Winter dropped, but in 50 years rose to incredible values. I don't think you can use the coldest Winter on record happening 70% through the dataset as proof.. You are comparing this past Winter with the coldest on record when it was +NAO/+WPO.

13-14 wasn't that warm in the West. There were some +3F's in California but it was a CONUS cold year. I do think if there is El Nino in future Winters, the West Coast will have an anomalous ridge.

I'd have to agree, we haven't seen anything close to the +EPO in 01-02 in recent years, and how it often linked up with strong +NAO. If we had a Winter +EPO that extreme again, it might break the 70s mid-Winter in the Mid-Atlantic.

Man that 78-79 Winter sure was cold. What you guys would do for another one of these 3 consecutive Winters here in the late-1970s

I guess it's just really hard to get 23c waters right on the equator. The "average" is probably more towards El Nino than "0".

Any idea what's causing this?

I still want to get a really strong east-based La Nina at some point.. but it may be very dry. El Nino's are for sure much wetter.

^Switching to more El Nino's in the coming time may not mean colder US Winter's. I've always contended that La Nina is the colder pattern anyway if you take the static of NAO out of the equation.

The 20 most recent warm minus cold CONUS Winter's.. 1993-2025. This is SSTA's Sept-Nov before. east-based El Nino hugging the American coast is the biggest signal July before.. +2c off of Peru there is really strong for most recent 20 years/33.

^Man what a horrible SSTA map, lol Best thing is northern Indian Ocean isn't that warm.

That was a "no chance" Winter. Things weren't even really that close. There were a few -NAO periods, but they linked up with the SE ridge because -NAO/+EPO can actually be the worst Winter pattern ever because it's dry.

That 97-98 season was really something.. I remember being a kid and it didn't snow the entire Winter. Didn't think that was possible. The 2nd half of 96-97 was really warming though, there were buds in the trees as early as late Feb 1997. A storm on 4/1/97 was suppose to give us 12"+ of snow (I was sad it was going to kill all the Spring stuff) but it trended north at the last minute and was only rain.

I noticed it was warming as early as 09-10. There were some really warm periods in between those storms, and it didn't get down into the 10s like blizzards of the past. I think whatever "hits" takes a few years to be in effect, and that happened well before the 15-16 Strong El Nino.

Why OND?

Late July looks hot. Aleutian high pressure developing. Should be in the 90s at least.

SOI is finally getting out of Weak-La Nina territory 6 Jul 2025 1011.51 1014.55 -24.56 TAO/Triton subsurface has warmed a lot.. +1c near the surface.. no more central-subsurface cold pool of any significance

9 day lead though.. I'd rather see what their forecasts looked like 3-6 months in advance.

I'm not picky about this stuff.. I would say that it was a good forecast because it got the West coast ridge, and half of the below average trough. Usually they are at least near by what happens with forecasts.

Southern Hemisphere AAO so far this July: 1-Jul-25 1.8937 2-Jul-25 2.248 3-Jul-25 2.8385 4-Jul-25 3.1945 5-Jul-25 2.5837 6-Jul-25 2.1543 The correlation is pretty cool.. right at 90N the following January

Phoenix being so hot for a long time last Summer was an accurate predictor... they broke their record streak of most consecutive 100+ days by 40! The other years that had the streak broken came out with a +PNA and -4f to -5f in the Midwest and East for December and January. I don't think they are as warm so far this Summer, but it is warming there always. Also, the AAO last August was record negative.. that rolled forward at 0.5 correlation to a -AO Dec and Jan.. again, something that hit. The PDO was strongly warm forecast, and that got blown out...

Seasonal models were actually really bad over the PNA region last Winter.. they maybe over-use the recent trend and ENSO.

CPC doesn't have a super warm Winter forecast right now.. seasonal models going a little cooler is probably why.