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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess I've been harping on it a little much, you're right it's still early. If the AAM goes over +3, that's impressive and more of a -NPH signal for the rest of the year imo. It will be interesting to see what actually happens after that, as the AAM tends to see-saw between positive and negative bouts, about every 35-40 days.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Why do you think the PNA and Southern Hemisphere High pressure is not responding so far? The same thing happened in 23-24. There's definitely an El Nino building in many aspects, but it's not propagating to the northern and southern latitudes as much as past examples, thus far, not a global dominating event. The +AAM should produce more of a northern latitude favorable H5 pattern, let's see what happens there in the next few weeks.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just not really seeing the corresponding pressure patterns in the North and South Pacific so far, in the mid latitudes. 1997 and 1982: notice how -SLP stretched in the Hadley Cell from 180E to 360E
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's the ridge
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Very cool!
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Models in the medium/long range missed the European heatwave, just like they recently caught onto this Canadian ridge in the next few days. They might be a little less reliable right now.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good run of -SOI.. we could make a run at most negative 2-month period (Apr-May '26) since 2016 25 May 2026 1011.06 1012.85 -25.41 -12.61 -3.54 24 May 2026 1010.19 1012.80 -31.69 -12.71 -3.18 23 May 2026 1011.70 1012.55 -18.21 -12.02 -2.76 22 May 2026 1012.15 1013.20 -19.74 -11.50 -2.49 21 May 2026 1010.85 1013.05 -28.55
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what 1997 was like.. June is finally getting close with a Canadian ridge now showing up on medium-range models Edit: You could say May is pretty close
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    They are just expressing what they think should happen. We continue to be in this mid latitude Hadley Cell expansion phase, despite El Nino.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty interesting what continues to transpire in the North Pacific, despite El Nino I don't think we'll be getting a follow up-Strong La Nina anytime soon (years), there is an ebb and flow to the Pacific-ENSO pattern.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I kept checking the NWS because the weather app on my computer kept showing 50s for highs. NWS was always mid 60s or higher. I didn't get above 54 yesterday, and 50 today, at least for middle of the day highs.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Decadal research through the 1900s shows that the AMO is correlated to SE ridge/trough patterns.-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    The CDC Daily climate composites page hasn't been working so I can't do exact measurements on the data is was based on, but the SSTA on Tropical Tidbits looks about Neutral so far, close to 0.0.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    97-98
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    57-58 and 65-66 also didn't have a strong east-based orientation. Since 1948, only 5 events: 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24 have been basin wide Super Nino. Kind of interesting that this will be the 3rd one in 12 years, in the midst of many weaker La Nina's.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    No surprise here NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^If May finishes where we are now in the SOI, there will have been only one 2-month period with a lower SOI since 2016, Aug-Sept 2023, and was barely lower than -10/month. It's been quite a +SOI streak since 2016. Big difference in the SOI this Spring after an anomalous +7 March.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    New CPC Winter forecast fwiw. In the last 15 years they actually don't verify as good as you think they would at +2 month lead. Not sure how they do at +7 month lead:
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    New CPC Summer seasonal is much warmer than classic developing Strong Nino climo
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really a strong graduation. It's still intensifying in the far east
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    ENSO subsurface is approaching the warmest ever, below Nino 1+2. El Nino seasonal patterns may follow, except for temps which effected by the -PDO/-ENSO state that is currently strong in the North Pacific.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty impressive decadal -PDO state we are in. I wonder if the mid-latitude low pressures will ever come back like they were for the 82-83 and 97-98 El Nino's.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    +7c is about to pop in the far eastern subsurface on TAO/Triton. That's the warmest so far, and the subsurface is still strengthening according to that.
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