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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd say it's on (~ Feb 19) unless the upper latitude index pattern changes (which it hasn't yet). It also looks like an active STJ starting around that time so well have to just time something right in trend. It was always suppose to be warm before Valentines Day.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z GFS builds the +PNA at day 11! 952mb https://ibb.co/QMsMGYn
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Leading up to a triple phaser, or a blizzard, you generally want the N. Hemisphere to be colder anomaly. It's pretty simple, but almost all the major storms have it, days to weeks before, the Hemisphere temps dropped, or were colder than normal overall. Here's before March '93.. this is in the midst of '48-20 averages (93 is 65% of the way through).. colder hemisphere https://ibb.co/w6wRMH9
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    It does feel like it's been a colder Winter. A lot of low cumulus, and days in the 30s and 40s. These clouds are really pretty for the last 2 years, and I think we are bringing in a better overall period for snow/cold (although maybe several years, even a decade?, out). It's not the same composition as 2005-2017, where things were melting fast, and not refreezing, a lot of sunny bright days
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    What about January though where it had several runs going back to September of us being -1 to -4?
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    And the long range models will keep getting more and more accurate, and going out further and further in time! It's the point in the technological revolution we are in. I'm kind of disappointed because manual methods like analog research are no longer as valuable. The GEFS and EPS are still not performing all that great, though.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    For real.. let's do it
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    He was like 17 at the time lol. I used to post with them when I was also in high school and college.. they were fun, easily deep. I'm glad he's a successful person now with some good storm chasing videos.. looks like he's having a good time.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    like tresspass?
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I am excited. We are really in a warm era though. Things need to happen just right. We do have the perfect look at day 15, but let me go over what is normally a +PNA pattern (the main feature right now for that time) Temps: https://ibb.co/68v50zF Precip: https://ibb.co/T8789w8 Sea-level pressure: https://ibb.co/W5SyPpN SLP between here and the coast of -0.3-0.4 is the big deal, and why you get SECS'/MECS' in +PNA patterns.. they bomb over the immediate coastal water. But precip is generally lower, unless you get a big piece in the STJ from, say, El Nino (which is why I'm excited about this particular +pna pattern). The 2std low in texas on Feb 18th is a really good indicator of that for this time, and eventually transferring off the coast with a GOA low and 50/50 low in place... almost perfect generally speaking. Let's just hope this look holds... I don't care so much that the 384hr gfs is not logistically showing a snowstorm right now.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Historically speaking, these are the 3 main ingredients for a major snowstorm. https://ibb.co/TwM8d7y Now it looks like potentially Feb 19-20, but let's see if the recent trend of less +PNA inside 12-days stops tomorrow.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wish I had the 16day GFS ensemble maps from 10 days ago.. I think in the longer range that everyone is talking about (last week of Feb/early Mar), we might have to worry about the staying power of +pna: It hasn't sustained more than a short time for a very long time.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    +15-20 days.. ~March 2-7
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    This one looks even better for coming SECS/MECS, especially if that NE trough becomes a 50/50 low. The N. Pacific low south of the Gulf of Alaska is in the perfect position, with active energy along the STJ in the southern US. Let's see if it holds
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hey guys! Today's LR ensembles look really good for a possible storm around Feb 19th. https://ibb.co/r4tx7cj The -EPO is what I really like to see, because that has the biggest net difference to our Winter snowfall (temps+precip together). +PNA's are cold, and they favor low pressure on the coastline, but sometimes they can be as moisture starved as they are cold. This setup looks really good for ~Feb 19... the N. Pacific low east of the Aleutian island/+PNA spot, is really good for our active STJ and a potential monster storm! The LR hasn't been trending favorably inside 12 days lately, so that's the only negative... but as guidance looks now, I'd say big potential likely ~ Feb 19
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I continue to love this setup https://ibb.co/YLmngK1
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I love how far east the +PNA low is here, with energy in the SW. https://ibb.co/WkHs0BX
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I remember heavy sleet.. the forecast before the storm kept going up, I think we maxed out at 30-36" expected in Baltimore city, then 2 days before it was suppose to mix and we even had forecasts up to 2' of snow the day of, but it ended up being 12" + a lot of sleet (3-4")
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks Roger
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    GOM moisture! Associated with my SW vort/weakness energy at 384hr.. to time a storm ~Feb 19th
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    The Arctic High pressure is never so strong that you have to worry about which side of the world the cold is on...
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I know.. the sun has been really bright around late February/early March the last few years especially.. I feel like we are going against trends to get this cold Feb 15th+
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is actually a -AO https://ibb.co/XX6TJ6p
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    For the first 2 weeks of February, we are like +5. All you have to do is look at models to see that. that would mean it takes a <-5 anomaly the 2nd half of the month to not be above average.
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