Stormchaserchuck1

I am liking how the extended range is looking on current modeling. ~Jan 27th timeframe. Not real strong anomalies, but the placement of things looks good

6z NAM at 84hr is much flatter than the 0z GFS at 90hr

Some signs of a 50/50 low getting organized on the 384hr GEFS

Geez -- do we have to worry about more rain??

I just don't think the larger scale features are in place.. temps are too warm/borderline. I would go with mostly rain, 1-3" snow upside. +EPOs in the medium range Ive seen so many times are underestimated, the surface warm air. The trend goes more cutoff, probably mid 30s or a degree or two above freezing. Without more northern stream interaction the low doesn't bomb as much.

Yikes 41F in DC. The problem is we are just coming out of +epo which keeps the northern stream cutoff somewhat.

Well at least we are going into a cold pattern again. PNA is changing to positive (it still hasn't been positive a single day this Winter - since Dec 1) Which is supported by the ENSO subsurface - I have found when warm water makes it east of the dateline, +PNA is more likely to occur. Kelvin waves impact the N. Pacific pattern, my theory. I think we'll have some good shots at snowstorm when the new pattern sets in, this early stuff is the thread the needle, trough is still progressive and it's unlikely that we'll get 18 hours of rain, then a blizzard on the backend with how dry the pattern has been. I think later on - last week of January and maybe going into Feb we will have some high probability snowstorm chances

@GaWx Jan 9th-on looks like a +PNA pattern in the N. Pacific/N. America. It's interesting that this has been more of a model trend, as they didn't really show this much +pna in the medium/long range. Donsutherland has done research showing a strong -PNA switch to +PNA, too. Also, see how the warm central-ENSO-subsurface is correlating with more +PNA conditions as the warm water makes it east of the the dateline? We are going back to a cold pattern.

CPC has above average precip in the Mid Atlantic too, which would definitely translate to snow chances in the coldest 2 weeks of the year. We will have to do cold with -EPO/-WPO though, because the long range models are building a +NAO pattern in the Atlantic. We have ridging possibly at 90N, and then a south-based +NAO underneath of it. We saw the same pattern last February.

Very interesting crash in Natural Gas over the last 4 weeks This is now one of the lowest prices on record for January vs inflation. This is showing probability for a very +NAO for the rest of this Winter, and imo some sign for +NAO next Winter too. CPC continues to predict cold for the Northeast.. will the price rise from $2.63 by Feb 6th? stay tuned... So far the price has not moved up after a cold January forecast call for the Northeast. I went back and analoged it and found a weak East coast, US signal for January vs a very strong Europe signal.. central Europe was like +8F in the mean... it's very NAO-weighted.

Kind of looks progressive.. I'd rather have it backed up with a gulf of alaska low and 50/50 low. trough dropping in the upper midwest might shear the thing out.

We're losing the cold pattern on the 500mb! -EPO patterns are too short lived, they retrograde a low pressure backs in a lot of the time. Still far out to go, and there are a lot of fundamentals saying more +PNA for that time, so maybe the model doesn't verify.

If that -AO ridging occurs and trends over Greenland, the massive N. Atlantic trough will be in range of a 50/50 low. That's our hope for that Day 10 storm.. trend toward more -NAO/-AO in the medium range.

Let's see how it trends next few days. I don't think it's a frigid airmass although the timing is good with West coast ridge retrograding up through western Canada and Alaska. Those High pressures dropping down are pretty serious. I just don't know that it will be that good of a H5 pattern.. although since August it has been cooler in the east so maybe there is more going for this Winter. Also Winter -AO tendency with major -SLP in the arctic 60-90N during this past warm season (correlation good since 2012).

I'm surprised it stays so cold. Maybe models will pick up on -NAO, since we've had 4 straight months with NAO of -0.65 or lower. Also a weak 50/50 low for the Day 10 storm

Need to break this pattern

Yeah I only track snowstorms if we are in a cold airmass with room to spare

These are strong colors for a 360hr ensemble mean. Those are -20F anomalies in Canada

Sometimes the OP will be the first to show an extreme/new solution, and a few days later the ensembles will trend toward it. We really need that -EPO ridge to hold strong and not start to phase out/weaken as we get closer.

Long range is so warm on the GFS because of +NAO Just when we change the Pacific.. we've had, Sept-Dec, 4 straight months of <-0.65 monthly NAO so let's see if it does phase shift.

That's probably rain for I-95. NW of I-95 it might be snow.

1st Jan storm last year that gave DC like 7" had a 50/50 low

But 15 seconds left with a timeout to spare.. the offense is moving the ball so well... you really are going to make a rookie kicker, who's longest FG all year is 52yds, on the road in Pittsburgh, so loud, kick a 40+ yd FG when he leads the league in erratic kickoffs, going out of bounds? You shouldn't say put it all on one play, but that call definitely costed Harbaugh his job.

The stats say go for it though, and that 99.9% of NFL coaches are too conservative in that regard. It's just frustrating when I see the numbers so clear, to have these big guys with tens of millions watching make the wrong call over and over. The one variable where coaches are too aggressive on is the 2-point attempt. It only works 31% of the time. So anything less than 50% is no unless it's a really special circumstance.

Yeah, that's probably more important. The SOI was positive 17 months in a row until Dec 2025 ended that streak, but for the first 15 months it was weak.. 0 to +10.. then we had 2 >+10 at the end, then it petered out. My ENSO subsurface monthly index is going to come in positive for Jan though.. not many Nina's that had warm subsurface in January. I'll have to see which ones had that. I know that testing all years gives more of a +PNA signal when the central-ENSO subsurface is warm.