Stormchaserchuck1

I'm just observing that the pattern seems to be breaking a little Obviously above average is the way to go, as something like 80% of the months across the US are above average over the last 5-10 years. This coming heat ridge is also a SE ridge flexing, but it's happening with a strong +NAO which isn't as bad, imo.

I actually really like this cold 500mb over Greenland for Winter -EPO potential.. it's a correlation that I've been working with over the past 12 years, strong +NAO periods are correlating with -EPO +time

Heating Oil Up 1.4% today, so you would have made 10-15% on a margined futures contract. I continue to have a strong signal for Heating Oil Up tomorrow.. about 57% chance. I finished this mathematical program 2 weeks ago, and so far it has outperformed the numbers in the first 2 weeks. Here's my list for tomorrow, just posting because it's weather related in that the coming heat ridge I don't think is fully baked into the Energy price yet. Crude Oil was down today, so Heating Oil has outperformed it all week so far, telling me that the weather might be outweighing Middle East conflict, at least in the last 3 days. Usually models catch onto a pattern 2 weeks out, but this one trended strong about 4-5 days ago. ZM -0.080% ZC -0.071% MXN/US -0.057% GBP/USD -0.015% USD/CN -0.014% ZF -0.008% VX -0.007% VIX -0.004% ZT -0.004% DKK 0.000% USD/CAD 0.000% USD/CHF 0.000% LE 0.000% EUR/USD 0.000% GC 0.014% GF 0.014% AUD/USD 0.016% NZD/USD 0.017% ZN 0.019% USD/JPY 0.020% ZW 0.041% HG 0.052% ZB 0.059% ZL 0.060% ZS 0.064% UB 0.069% PA 0.091% RB 0.094% HE 0.105% SI 0.108% NG 0.115% CL 0.179% PL 0.215% HO 0.342%

Since the eastern US heat ridge showed up on models a few days ago, Heating Oil has really gone up in price Conflict in the Middle East also has something to do with it too, but today it outperformed Crude Oil. I have a mathematical indicator to trade Futures, and I have a really strong Up signal on Heating Oil for tomorrow.. if you want to take a chance and possibly make some $... It's telling me that the weather isn't fully baked in yet. I have a 58% chance that it will go up tomorrow.

Continued really strong +NAO/+AO pattern.. the CPC readings don't go that high, but the 500mb over Greenland and the Davis Strait rival a 3-standard deviation trough. We saw the same exact thing last year, weeks after major solar flares (which we had a short time ago) Say what you want about Winter -NAO not correlating with East coast troughs, but we have seen some really extreme ridges under strong +NAO H5 patterns since January 2024.

Breaking 6000dm on the 0z GFS.. I was wrong about no extreme heat. This is one heck of a way to even out this unusual mid-June cool period.

Really nice cold 500mb +NAO Days 8-15 on the 18z GEFS. This is a pattern that also developed last Spring/Summer after the active solar flares.

That is good agreement for an extended 5940dm ridge though.. in a continuous +AO pattern

And while we get ridging, these models are showing Summertime snow near Yellowstone! I haven't turned on my AC yet either

I don't see anything that says 100 degrees. I see 1 day in the 90s, but maybe we'll get a few in the 90s.

I would take my chances with either one of those seasons, too. We had a really nice upper latitude pattern in Dec 2022 and March 2023. I think whatever it was that was keeping semi-permanent ridging in the mid-latitudes 2019-2024 is breaking, maybe since the solar storms last Spring.

Yeah, we're not really crushing this generally cool period with record breaking warm temps at any point. I was going to say the global warming has slowed a little actually over the last few months. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a -PNA next Winter, but if this tendency that has been present since the Fall last year holds it could be a lot like last Winter just meaning cooler vs the trend (maybe not as dry).

I don't remember.. I'm sure it has happened, but I've noticed a big difference in these days between May and June.

I might not get out of the 60s Sunday and Monday. June is usually a big seasonal transition. I can't remember a time after my birthday (early June) where that has happened before (not getting out of the 60s).

Current CPC outlook for Jan-Feb-March doesn't have any major warmth like the Summer and Fall forecasts have except for Maine.. maybe they are going for -NAO.. and -PNA, -EPO probably I would take a +0.2F Winter lol

It certainly hasn't warmed up much this year. Colder seems to be the predominant pattern since last September, relative to the average global warming. I wouldn't be surprised if something close to last Winter happens this coming Winter.

Definitely doesn't have the feel of a super hot Summer.

Subsurface looks like there could be some warming over the next few months.. warmth is just below the surface. There is a big difference though between CPC and TAO/Triton maps. CPC has +2-3 subsurface anomalies in the thermocline where TAO shows negative.

It's probably going to break records into the 120s in quite a few places. I wonder if people will post Twitter links here when it happens. I've been following models for a very long time, and I've never seen such a strong, elongated, persistent ridge this close to warm season on that side of the globe..

Starts in 3-4 days, and models keep Iran area very above average through 384hr

I think they are going to get well into the 120s in some places in the Middle East.

Asia and the Middle East are really hot for the next 1-2 weeks. Big +AO pattern. The AO positive in June will be the 4th straight +AO month, and some of these >+1 daily readings we have seen are amongst the highest lately. Surprisingly, it doesn't roll forward to anything significant for the Winter.

ACE is probably a better metric. Either way, there is a clear SLP pattern of Atlantic tripole for active seasons Apr-May vs the opposite. We've had a little more +NAO/+AO this Apr-May.

That's the way I'm leaning too, but it wouldn't surprise me if the decadal started moving less positive 1st month in out of 4.. and the N. Atlantic SST index is slightly negative right now, Like -0.2

It looks like Apr to May this is the 3rd biggest move since 1948. The other two were trending negative to positive.. all 4 biggest moves since 2014. 1. 2024 -23.42 -6.52 2. 2015 -24.38 -12.33 3. 2025 6.94 -4.59 4. 2014 7.15 -2.81