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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    The sad thing is, ultra favorable periods are the only ones producing.. This will be our 3rd round of strong -NAO. Anything without a -NAO/+PNA in place may finish the year "0".
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually somewhat big changes on the NAM short term.. I guess that's why everyone loves it so much https://ibb.co/G2rTd9d
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks good.. the Euro weeklies have had a very favorable high latitude pattern for US cold for several runs/a long time now.. Interesting to see things so far apart for March. Late February Stratosphere warming favors some -NAO conditions in March, too.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't know.. let's pin it.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://ibb.co/M6BjFBy I personally don't mind having a ridge over Alaska..
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually, when the two pieces (GOA low and 50/50) have greater -anomaly than the +blocking, it's an even better signal (like the map you posted).
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hopefully that block over Alaska holds the same strength in future runs.. https://ibb.co/LQxBQvy
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, those are the two biggest pieces in historical KU storms.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    We'll probably flip to -PNA quickly when the El Nino fades. Spring could go warmer..
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks good.. we have time. Upper latitude pattern is good.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it trended better at 104hr. https://ibb.co/7jkTsL9
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z NAM 500mb low is further north and faster vs 12z GFS at the same time.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    We finally got a west-based -NAO block.. but there is a piece of the PV in NW Canada retrograding to possibly encroach on Alaska. That could fill the country with mild air.. A few days before then we have a block over Alaska, so that's a pretty big difference in a short amount of time.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I like the PD period the best, It still looks good in the upper latitudes. The cold pattern is breaking down, maybe too fast for the 24th (on 12z GEFS).. We are already marginal for Presidents Day.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think there could be some phasing between 2 jet streams. Temps are an issue right now though.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have to post this GFS snow map.. it's probably the most accurate with regards to future trends/the current situation and all.. the max this map ever got since the GFS started showing a hit is 4-6".
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't know what all this GFS hate is. If you know what its biases are, it's easy to work with as a 1-model system.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    100dm is an amazing signal for something not even really related! Furthermore, my analog set is 1998-2023. I have 11 analogs out of the dataset.. so 11/25 years.. 41% of the total. To have a +7F average anomaly (+ and - .. more - years, for the global warming skew.. 7/11 are cold analogs) for 40% of a dataset in 25 years is amazing!
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is most accurate.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    The fortune is meant to reverse during the fortune of the unfortune.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since there's not much activity... Since 1998, top 7 +Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 8.3, bottom 4 Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 2.2. We are at 1.97, the 3rd lowest on record in that time, fitting the extreme situation guideline. https://ibb.co/2vrfcHK Here are the top 11 +analogs for March.. based on Feb's NG price: https://ibb.co/6wKqgDf https://ibb.co/Hp0zZqW ^that's Feb NG price rolled forward into March (so a +1 month lead time)
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would argue that there's not enough data. The daily-specific research I did of that central subsurface cold or warm pool posted a PNA-correlation, no time. I found that Strong Nino years that had negative subsurface water, were more likely to be warm and snowless with SE ridge (there weren't many if any Nina's I can think of that had warm subsurface pool, the opposite of that pattern). If you look at the PNA pattern as Pacific-North America, those Strong Nino/cold subsurface Winter's fit 2/3 variables in the -PNA index (cold West, warm East). Some like 72-73 fit 3/3 parts of the index. I think if you had enough data you would see that there probably are differences late Winter if the Nino subsurface remains strong/neutral, or flips to a Nina-like state. Off the top of my head, these are the Strong Nino/negative subsurface March's: https://ibb.co/kXN8QWs
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another variable we should consider is that we are rapidly losing this El Nino, to possibly La Nina conditions. Here's the latest subsurface map. https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY There is usually a direct correlation between the black box area and the N. Pacific PNA, but the SOI has been severely negative, so that may be overpowering otherwise weak indicators right now.. but eventually, I think we do need to worry about -PNA conditions developing sometime in the early Spring. Maybe even sooner..
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    2 takes. Natural Gas record low: https://ibb.co/2vrfcHK ENSO subsurface changes: https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY ON NATURAL GAS: Since 1998, top 7 +Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 8.3, bottom 4 Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 2.2. We are at 1.97, the 3rd lowest on record in that time, fitting the extreme situation guideline. Here are the top 11 +analogs for March.. based on Feb's NG price: https://ibb.co/6wKqgDf https://ibb.co/Hp0zZqW ^that's Feb high/low NG price rolled forward into March (so a +1 month lead time). I don't know that March's warmth will be that extreme, because a lot of LR models (GEFS, EPS, Euro) are showing below average temps through the 21st, but we probably will finish the month above normal in the NE.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    looks warm
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