Stormchaserchuck1

The difference between -0.4 or -0.6 ONI historically is a +10dm cold season difference in the Winter North Pacific High pressure

Thanks! I found this interesting

I'm surprised that seasonal models are so strong on a La Nina developing over the next few months, without strong negative subsurface anomalies. I guess it has something to do with 9 straight months of +SOI, as the SOI was a fantastic indicator last year, hinting that it wouldn't be a La Nina, with the index not going positive until the Fall.

With the PDO so negative, I think we can increase the chances for warmer CONUS Fall, at least Sept-Oct, and especially October - the pattern of the 2000s. This hit big time last year, with a counter-intuitive -0.5 correlation H5 +EPO in Sept-Oct. It may be a warm Pacific pattern in October.

Wonder if we'll finally break this strong +AO pattern, that has been there since May..

SOI data is reliable and goes back to the 1800s. Here's the top 9 positive SOI Fall/Winters minus negative SOI Fall Winters 1900-1950.. fits our post-1950 composite. In other words, this image below is the typical La Nina state 1900-1950. March included Here's precip

It's because it's not overpowering other forces. If we had an El Nino at +5c, there would no doubt be a trough in the North Pacific.

Daily PDO is hitting -3.4, they say that's the lowest daily they've ever seen. Last October the daily peaked at -3.0, and it resulted in a -3.8 monthly for October 2024, the lowest monthly reading on record going back to the 1800s.

Does anyone know that the top global sea-level pressure correlation during an ENSO event is actually NW of Australia and in Indonesia.. it's a total global-tropical phenomenon.. that >0.6 correlation in the equilateral-Atlantic is impressive, too.

El Nino favors cooler waters in the mid-latitudes where the Hadley Cell meets the Mid-latitude Cell... it's the opposite of what we have now from Japan to north of Hawaii

Yeah, the subsurface is weak right now. It's not a perfect predictor, but it has led by several months for the last few years.

Usually you like to see the subsurface colder if an official La Nina is to emerge

They are colder than I am for ENSO the rest of this year, but they probably have good reason with models coming within range.

I'm surprised that they favor a La Nina over ENSO Neutral for the rest of this year, just based on the ONI.. I guess they expect cooling in the coming months, along with seasonal models. SOI last year never went strong positive when a lot of things were pointing to a Moderate-Strong La Nina early in the year, and it ended up being an accurate predictor, per ONI it never even went La Nina last year. The SOI has been positive, July could be 10 months in row, although only slightly so, so I guess they are thinking it will accurately predict again.

I didn't see the post. Do you have a link?

This year, climate models seem to support a cooling of ENSO in the coming months. The SOI has been a good gauge for a few years now.. it has been positive for the last few days. A positive July would be the 10th straight month with +SOI, which would be a la nina or cold enso indicator. The subsurface was really warm in the western subsurface in the spring, but has since neutralized.. so yeah, maybe near neutral, or slightly cool for the rest of this year.

I'm starting to think the odds of an El Nino next year are lower, but higher chances 2 years from now (27-28).. maybe a Weak El Nino next year

For the 2nd point, I'm explaining the relative ENSO index. Since the whole globe is warming, it maps ENSO relative to that global warming skew.. so I'm saying that if global SSTs are +0.5 warmer on average, if Nino 3.4 (the strongest correlated ENSO region of the 4) is +0.5, that is actually even with the global skew, or "0.0". It's called the RONI, and in the last 20 years the RONI has had better correlation with the northern and southern hemisphere Hadley Cell pattern (-PNA) than regular ENSO (ONI).

I actually found that in the last 33 years our warmest Winters for the whole US have been in east-based El Nino's albeit, rare as they are. I think that means in the coming time El Nino's, and east-based El Nino's may happen with warmer Winters.

In the coming time, there will probably be 60% El Nino's, or +20% more than La Nina's.. it's just really interesting that after the 97-98 Super El Nino the opposite occurred. That's probably not a sustainable pattern though, and will probably switch in the coming time. That's why they have also developed the "RONI", which is relative average compared to the global warming (if global warming is +0.5, and Nino 3.4 is 0.0, that's a -0.5 RONI).

Global warming is associated with a stabilization of the Earth climate.. less low pressures/wind, more high pressures. Since the Tropical Pacific is associated with strong winds as an "average", cooling the waters as much as 3-5c along the equator for "neutral" compared to areas north and south, then an El Nino, and actually strong El Nino, is a stabilization of that system. This is not what has happened since 1998... we have actually seen cold SSTs relative to the global warming on the order of 4-5 standard deviations below normal during that time.. the thought is that more El Nino's will happen in the coming time to even this system out, as a product of global warming. However, the last 27 years is a very interesting datapoint because something is causing an opposite pattern.

The +AO coming up is so extreme, it had to even out with massive ridges in northern Europe/Greenland, and NE of Japan, a short time after. The actual H5 gets down to 5080dm just south of Alert, Canada later on today!

Yes.. there is also a 5900dm ridge in northern Sweden in 2 days. Both this one and the ridge NE of Japan trended on models in the last few days.. they weren't there this strong in the longer range.

Big time ridge NE of Japan in the +4-7 Day. In the last few years we've been seeing these Summer H5 anomalies, touching 6000dm, in areas that already had very anomalous +SSTs.

The frequency of La Nina's 1998-2025 is actually an anomaly in the global warming. Earth patterns were suppose to relax, or stabilize, which is default El Nino state. Check it out.. all warm cold The La Nina Standard Deviation in the last 27 years is about negative 4-5 sigma.