Stormchaserchuck1

0z EPS is really warm the 1st week of April. Like 70s to near 80

They were too warm the past 2 Winters in the east - but not before that. The past 10 Winters they actually have a slight cold bias in the east. Seasonal models played -PDO and PNA persistency, popping a SE ridge for the Winter, however if you extended these DJF forecasts the last 2 Winters to March, there is not as much colder than forecast verification. Despite what many believe, La Nina is actually not warmer in the NE. A west-based La nina may be, but La Nina's usually have cold Decembers and their main effect is on the north pacific high pressure (NPH), which is net neutral temps in the NE in the cold season. La Nina's and Strong El Nino's aren't both warm..

Yeah they are off with their conservative anomalies compared to the 91-20 average. It should realistically be +1F everywhere. To make that dark red is kind of weird, if you judge this last Winter's forecast on their temp anomalies, it was a huge bust in the Mountain west. They aren't in tune with where we are as a whole compared to the 91-20 average.

Just continues and continues

I'm not convinced that the Pacific circulation goes so far into El Nino. SOI this March is way higher than all other Moderate+ El Nino's (later in the year) on record (since 1950). This is March SOI rolled into the max ENSO time of year.. this is a +NPH-feedback pattern in the Hadley Cell, and slight cooling on the equator. April SOI, however, makes a much bigger difference:

The warmest March on record for the CONUS, 2012, is going to be broken by quite a lot this March. Here is how Apr-May 2012 evolved:

Quietly hitting 82 in DC Sunday

Flagstaff is the biggest crushing records in the area. Sedona, AZ is nearly 5000' and look at their forecast! 7-Day Forecast 34.87N 111.77W

New CPC Winter forecast

I would give the CPC a "C" grade

Should be an above average temp 1st week of April

Flagstaff, AZ's record high for the month of March is 73 They are projected to hit 87 Friday, 14 degrees higher than all time high for the month with 11 days to go! Thursday Sunny, with a high near 86. Friday Sunny, with a high near 87. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 83. Flagstaff has never hit 100F in the Summertime. So their difference between this March's high temp and previous March's all time (since 1899) is greater than the difference between this March's high and their all time highest temp ever recorded. The next 7 straight days there +4> than their previous monthly record (77 or higher every day).

Flagstaff, AZ's record high for the month of March is 73 They are projected to hit 87 Friday, 14 degrees higher than all time high for the month with 11 days to go! Thursday Sunny, with a high near 86. Friday Sunny, with a high near 87. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 83. Flagstaff has never hit 100F in the Summertime. So their difference between this March's high temp and previous March's all time (since 1899) is greater than the difference between this March's high and their all time highest temp ever recorded.

Palm Springs, CA hit 106F today, a new monthly record. Palm Springs, CA has now come within 28 degrees of the all time highest temperature ever recorded on Earth in the wintertime! They are expected to go higher tomorrow and Friday.

The heat wave in the SW, US over the next 10 days is probably more impressive than 2012. Ranks up there with June 2021 in the NW with std of top warm departures all time.

March 2026 is likely going to finish the warmest March on record for CONUS

Here is what a typical El Nino Summer looks like in the 1948-2020 dataset

March SSW's have not coincided with lagging -NAO's the last few times.

^ Current NWS forecast for Flagstaff Thursday Sunny, with a high near 83. Friday Sunny, with a high near 85. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 81.

Looking a little warmer for us in the medium/long range, under constant +nao

Roger put a lot of effort into this, to give us fun competition for many years. RIP buddy

Since the pre-El Nino composite has worked out 4 months in a row, here is April's preceding El Nino's that develop later in the year.. let's see if we can make it 5 matching months in a row

I have sleet

Since 2011, the 2 El Nino Atlantic Hurricane seasons have looked like this 2023 2015 In contrast, the Strongest La Nina season since 2011 looked like this: 2020 Tied 2nd Strongest La nina season.. 2016 Tied 2nd Strongest La nina season.. 2022 You can see generally more E -> W trajectory of storms in La Nina seasons vs more S -> N in El Nino seasons.

Daily records 4 days with an average of beating previous record by +10F/day.