Stormchaserchuck1

Nice cold shot on 0z GFS. Dry, but one more dip into Winter

I love snow, but 4 months of cold for flurries more 6x so far this year is not worth it lol. I love being outside, having the windows open and stuff. I love the Spring. GFS looks cooler though. After Feb 19-20, looks like another decent cold shot thereafter. Kind of keeping up with the theme of the Winter so far.

Backdoor front Feb 19 on 0z GFS, keeping us in the 40s. Let's see what the Euro shows. GFS not really a good model.

It just snowed south of Tampa. Islip NY just had 19 consecutive days with a low temp of 19° or colder, the longest stretch on record, going back to the 1800s. It snowed 10" in Florida last Winter, which was the most on record for the state since the 1800s, previous record 4". There is meteorological reasoning, it's not because Donald decided to drive his car today. I'm not arguing with you global warming in general: There are macro stats that explain it well. I think it's more about you complaining and not wanting to concede that this was predicted 8 days ago, by methods you disagreed with. I'm not really engaging in your tangent about "where have all the borderline storms gone". I said it before, and I'll say it in the future, the Pacific with +450dm is extreme, and a fast Pacific jet disconnects the northern stream, and floods the US with low level warm air. A storm like this gets cutoff from the freezing line. It's not a borderline event at all: Our average high temp in the heart of Winter in strong -PNA is mid 40s. I don't care if 6% of the examples broke the trend. I know in 97-98 we had these "perfect track rainstorms" all the time.. I think 72-73 too. etc. I know the average statistics, and you are riding hard on anomalies, it usually won't work out.

Strong -PNA's and +EPO downstream effect is underestimated in the medium range by all models.

PNA has a NAO correlation in late Feb/March, so it seems more neutralized than it really is if there is no NAO help.

Yup that was 8 days with high temperatures in the 10s we just had! It snowed south of Tampa. It used to rain all the time mid Winter in the 1960s and 70s.

Something is wrong with AI models

It's a PNA/EPO issue, which I guess you could say is a PDO issue. We just had one of our coldest mid-Winter stretches on record... AGW stuff right now is just complaining. Feb/March has been the same anomaly in the Pacific for 9 straight years. Let's figure out why!

Just because I've been tracking it, 00z Euro is 64F for DCA 2-19, and 66F 2-20. 0z eps peaks 62F on 2-19.

Full snowcover here. Was surprised to see so much of it stick after today.

Seasonal models did pretty good this year. I remember you pointing out the much drier than average forecast. They were also colder than the 10 and 30 year averages. We were lucky to get that 1 STJ storm out of nowhere. It was Boston's 8th biggest snowfall on record, and the low pressure wasn't even that strong.

March starts off with +EPO, per 18z GEFS. We could talking about 50s and 60s if this verifies: 12z EPS also had a similar Pacific pattern Does anyone know what our snowfall stats for February 2018-2026? 2016-2026?

WPO pattern is pretty far away, +EPO is closer and it will be about as positive as the WPO is negative (-0.3 for -WPO vs +0.5 for +EPO)

End of the 0z Euro is warming up really good in the Midwest. Run it forward a few days and we might be talking about 70s. 117hr Euro is 57F in DCA 186hr Euro is 67F in DCA 288hr Euro is 64F in DCA 354hr Euro is 63F in DCA 4 separate fronts.. -PNA pattern Model run is probably too extreme, but it does highlight a warmer pattern coming up.

Looks very La Nina-like

QBO information, near real-time The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) January 2026 was the 2nd lowest 30mb QBO Jan on record, 2015 was number 1: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index It will likely reverse to +QBO for Winter 26-27. It has a cold season Stratosphere polar vortex correlation, stronger stratosphere polar vortex is +QBO, weaker SPV is -QBO.

If they were using the AI model it would be higher totals earlier too.

I guess it's not fully included then.

I have found something interesting, since the 2012, N. Hemisphere Arctic ice melt low, the Summer sea-level pressure state has been reversing the following Winter. In the 2025-2026 ENSO thread, I used this to predict a -AO for Winter 25-26. Here was May-Sept 2025 SLP anomaly: Analogs [10] Following Winter of 10 analogs (+7 months) Winter 25-26 so far: Something to watch this coming warm season... do we get -SLP or +SLP anomaly over the Arctic (60-90N). Since 2012, -SLP has been followed by following cold season -AO, and +SLP has been followed by following cold season +AO.

7pm Sun is 0z UTC, which is when it's stopping. Maybe like 1 hour of light after that.

-PDO numbers this decade.. 73 straight months of negative: Will warm ENSO break this? January 2026 -1.19 December 2025 -0.98 November 2025 -1.51 October 2025 -2.37 September 2025 -2.31 August 2025 -3.23 July 2025 -4.21 June 2025 -2.64 May 2025 -1.66 April 2025 -1.15 March 2025 -1.12 February 2025 -1.40 January 2025 -1.29 December 2024 -2.03 November 2024 -3.13 October 2024 -3.80 September 2024 -3.56 August 2024 -2.91 July 2024 -3.01 June 2024 -3.15 May 2024 -2.98 April 2024 -2.11 March 2024 -1.54 February 2024 -1.34 January 2024 -1.57 December 2023 -1.66 November 2023 -1.79 October 2023 -2.23 September 2023 -2.99 August 2023 -2.48 July 2023 -2.54 June 2023 -2.55 May 2023 -2.41 April 2023 -3.08 March 2023 -2.45 February 2023 -1.65 January 2023 -1.24 December 2022 -2.21 November 2022 -2.40 October 2022 -1.81 September 2022 -2.28 August 2022 -2.38 July 2022 -2.63 June 2022 -1.31 May 2022 -2.23 April 2022 -2.09 March 2022 -1.67 February 2022 -1.91 January 2022 -2.40 December 2021 -2.71 November 2021 -2.75 October 2021 -3.14 September 2021 -1.96 August 2021 -0.95 July 2021 -2.00 June 2021 -1.82 May 2021 -2.04 April 2021 -1.84 March 2021 -1.67 February 2021 -1.09 January 2021 -0.61 December 2020 -0.98 November 2020 -1.58 October 2020 -0.62 September 2020 -1.04 August 2020 -1.33 July 2020 -0.92 June 2020 -0.75 May 2020 -0.52 April 2020 -1.32 March 2020 -1.75 February 2020 -1.48 January 2020 -1.41 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) El Nino/-PDO Winters are: 65-66, 72-73, 23-24 La Nina/+PDO Winters are: 83-84, 84-85, 95-96

It's a slight statistical anomaly, but there is no signal on the 3rd Winter going either way, besides what is normal for El Nino. 2 years of cold and dry maybe begets a drier El Nino.

With 2 colder than average Winters (DJF) in the Northeast (24-25 and 25-26), I was wondering, do we have a higher chance of seeing a cold El Nino Winter next year (26-27)?? (3rd consecutive cold Winter?) Since 1950, I found 10 analogs where there were 2 cold Northeast, US Winter's before an El Nino. That is extremely high. It means 38% of El Nino's were preceded by 2 cold Northeast, US Winters. The odds of one is about 40%, using my guidelines (40-20-40), odds of two 20%, so about +2std, but limited examples [28]. So check it out.. This is the DJF before an El Nino the following year: This Winter (25-26) so far: DJF Air Temps 11 months before an El Nino: Winter 25-26 so far: And that's going to get closer to a match, as we are in -PNA for the remainder of February. The pre-El Nino composite was a great predictor this Winter, even outscoring forecasts such as the CPC. Now what did the following, 3rd Winter, El Nino Winter, look like? ^About your average El Nino composite. I'm a little surprised the map isn't skewed colder. The precip is also surprisingly below average in the Mid Atlantic, but this is just based on 10 examples: So history says that 2 cold Northeast, US Winters followed by an El Nino does not lean cold for the 3rd, El Nino, Winter, Disqualifying my thought.