Stormchaserchuck1

^You can do actual AAO correlations over the whole dataset, of 73 years, both signs included. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/ Lead time (months): Let the index lead, Lag time (months): Let the pattern precede an AAO phase. Just going with January following a Sept AAO, this looks pretty "random"

September 2025 came in as the 7th consecutive +AO month. The odds of having 7-consecutive months of either direction are 1/64.. so once in 5 years. It shows that we are in a decadal +AO phase, which I believe really took a step up after the Solar Flares in May 2024. However, since 2012, the Summer AO sign as been flipping for the Winter in most cases, favoring a ridge at 90N. I wouldn't be surprised to see this 90N ridge again this Winter, but the Polar/Mid-latitude Cell puts a corresponding trough at 45N (not 40N), which may be further north than you might expect for -AO.

Yes, there is a slight opposite correlation between Oct NAO and the Winter NAO. I personally think the Pacific pattern in October is the more important one, and we generally want -EPO/+PNA, which this year is opposite... not a huge overall correlation, but noteable.

Models are pretty strong on a -NAO for the 2nd half of October. October is actually the only month of the year that has an inverse correlation to the following Winter (DJFM) NAO state. Its correlation is -0.07, when all other months of the year it is >0.0 [CPC NAO monthly]. Over 200 years I'm not sure the correlation holds, but the last few decades are filled with lots of examples of the Oct NAO state flipping for the Winter.

If there is a Stratosphere warming mid-January, it will typically effect the NAO in the 1st half of February. It will be interesting to see how strong -QBO this year ties in with the cold season Stratosphere. It was record cold 10mb last Nov-Feb with strong +QBO.

I think there will be some cold shots, but it won't be sustained, and will usually happen behind storms, and not in front of them. I don't see a super warm Winter though.

Gawx posted, here is the updated PDO.. it has risen sharply since record July, but looks to be stabilizing right now 2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03 2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.66 -2.62 -4.15 -3.18 -2.38

Over a larger dataset (CDC correlation maps go back to 1948, and have 73 total years, both + and - signs with amplitude included in the total number), the correlation is pretty strong. Especially October to February. You are right that it hasn't been great the last few years. I was thinking that October 2018, which had a -EPO, I was pretty excited about that Winter in the Fall and it ended up being a bad one. I think if you include the PNA, the recent numbers have a little more weight.. we are going strong -PNA this October. Call a -PNA/+EPO the same thing and you have a pretty strong roll forward. I think it's tied to the PDO and that correlation.

Actually it would mean +EPO October would beget +EPO Jan-Feb. The map is showing -EPO as the default state, but the correlation has both signs considered. We needed a +PNA/-EPO October, like 2002. The Pacific H5 has >+0.2 correlation, or 60% chance to roll forward to the Winter, which is more than usual.

Big time +EPO this October.. models are showing it for the 2nd half of the month. EPO carries very well from October to January-February

Big time +EPO this October.. models are showing it for the 2nd half of the month. EPO carries the same sign very well from October to January-February

Oops.. 1 hour late DCA: +3.2 NYC: +3.5 BOS: +3.5 ORD: +5.7 ATL: +2.9 IAH: +2.5 DEN: +0.5 PHX: +0.2 SEA: 0.0

I mean, I wouldn't bet on the Ravens https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-super-bowl-odds-updates-how-much-did-ravens-move-after-1-3-start-lamar-jackson-injury/ 3 Good WR's, 2 good TE's, Henry and Lamar though.. Justice Hill, Mitchell. it seems to be clicking too. I guess Vegas likes highly powered offenses. High betting odds also means that Lamar's injury probably isn't serious

Yeah, models are really strong on a +EPO to -PNA to take us to mid-month. We haven't seen a Pacific pattern this strong actually in a long time. In the Summer wavelengths are shorter, and ENSO etc impact us less, but there is a big uptick in correlation for October, and we are seeing exactly that this October. I was impressed that -PDO has a -0.5 H5 correlation over Alaska.. because that is land and the index is sea.. based on 73 years of data. Both last October and this October have seen PDO's <-2 hit that land pattern very well.

Poor Jalen Hurts signing autographs... he has to keep writing "Hurts" "Hurts" "Hurts" /darkhumor

Kind of surprising that a QB under .500 after 4 games has never won a Super Bowl.. They have all been 2-2 or better No No, a 0-4 NFL team has never won a Super Bowl.

Don't you guys know that they just signed Harbaugh to a 3-year contract? You usually don't fire someone shortly after agreeing to a 3 year contract. D-coordinator though.. sucks.

19-20 had a DJF ONI of +0.5c. Our last Weak Nina was 22-23 (-0.7 ONI), and arguably last Winter because the RONI was close to -1.0c.

It was a little telling that NOAA put out a forecast for 13-19 NS earlier in the season... they usually don't bust that bad. They had 18-25 last year, which looked like it was going to be way off mid-season then we came back at the end and hit the range.

Yeah, if we would have had a mediocre defense 2 years ago, we probably would have gone to the super bowl last year, if not won it (the Eagles were super hot though). smh is right, we've mistimed some key parts. It's actually hard to stay good in the NFL, with high draft picks to bad teams, coaching changes every year, salary cap. The winning formula seems to be a good QB though, which we have. Remember when the Ravens traded for Marcus Peters, then won 11 games in a row. Imagine winning 11 in a row now, and on paper we seem to have a much better team.. team is slacking these days

Seattle is now 3-1 with Mike MacDonald as HC.. they were 10-7 last year with Geno Smith QB. Baltimore may have missed an opportunity when they didn't upgrade him to HC after the defense was #1, 2 years ago.

I wish I could find the video where it was 4th and 3 on Detroits first drive.. The CB's were playing 8 yards off, in the end zone. That has to be one of the stupidest defensive play calls I've ever seen. The WR just turned around, QB quickly threw it him.. easy 1st down, on 4th and 3!

I saw that sub-4980dm made it to land about a week ago. I know August broke the record over the arctic circle for lowest heights on record, but then we did it again a week later! That one however, stuck around a little while and moved south over northern Russia sub-4980dm. Impressive for what was Summertime. This +AO phase has been running strong since the Northern Lights made it south in May 2024. September 2025 will probably make it 7 straight +AO months [CPC].

EPO patterns, both positive and negative, typically happen in only 8-14 day cycles. This is different from the PNA and NAO, which can run in 15-45 day cycles. +15 days after an EPO event actually has a slight opposite correlation to its previous phase, overall (only -0.03 though).