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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^QBO data only goes back to 1979, but add that and Dec is even warmer! I'm really curious to see what this Dec will look like.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Dec-Jan ONI has higher correlation for Feb than Feb ONI. I don't disagree that El Nino's have been historically cold in Feb though. In fact, I would say the stronger, the greater the cold signal should be. 2018-2025 however was the most -PNA on record for Feb by almost +50%! I'd watch the PDO there.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Just Fwiw, the last 2 years a few runs the CFS has shown -38F anomalies in the NW, US for the month of Dec both times. It didn't happen lol
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Oh, ok. Fwiw, I kind of saw it coming.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm not sure I understand your point? You think this year is different from the 2017-25 average because you had a localized thunderstorm?
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Lower midwest too. El Nino STJ has long tracking moisture storms across the lower part of the country.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's a pretty smoothed out map though. >1"/month over a 9-year period for like 50% of a region is pretty strong! If you go through year-by-year, almost every Jul-Aug has been above average in the eastern 1/2
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Green to neutral areas. At least relative to average. The 21-0 +1.11 monthly NAO streak means we will have to buck a strong trend though.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Lots of snowfall, if the -NAO and -AO can sustain.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^CFS, CANSIPS, and ECMWF are all showing a Winter -NAO. We haven't really had a DJFM -NAO in 14 years. We've had 21 winter months >+1.11 and 0 months <-1.11 in that time. Going for it: N. Atlantic SSTA's May-Aug so far are slightly negative. El Nino does generally support a warmer Stratosphere. Going against it: Decadal cycle is still near a peak. Descending Solar Cycle (+1-5 years after Solar Max +NAO is favored, and this last Max was a pretty high one). +QBO. I think a -AO for the Winter is more probable than -NAO, but it was only 17 years ago that the lowest NAO on record since the 1800s happened during an El Nino. I also think that seasonal models are overestimating the effects of -NAO. The Pacific is usually the stronger player, and since 2019 that has been the case at +0.25 correlation vs before.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just don't know that it is an El Nino STJ change to the drier cycle that we are in, yet. August has also been wet.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    July has been super wet since 2017. Wettest month of the year imby. 2026 followed the same pattern.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like the streak of -SOI days has ended 11 Aug 2026 1016.05 1013.30 6.86 -21.05 -22.10 10 Aug 2026 1014.90 1012.95 2.00 -22.57 -22.32 I've noticed over the years that when an ENSO variable wanes, other parts of its correlation pick up (more +PNA pattern for the next 13 days).. weird.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, this Fall/Winter will be interesting to see if NPH trough develops. It hasn't really happened since 15-16. +SOI correlation was a match the last 2 Summers as well.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Year 2 has lower correlation numbers, but is still generally mild
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's always hard to break record, but Summer 2027 has the potential to be warm, being post-El Nino (one that will break the post-1948 record by 15-20%). This has nothing do with global warming:
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    During the Strongest El Nino on record for July, too. The correlation isn't nearly as strong in the Summer, but generally La Nina's are the warmer Summer pattern, historically.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think even if it were a Weak El Nino the model would show N. Pacific trough for the Winter. Not saying we aren't going to get it, just noticed that 100% of the time it predicts ENSO climo.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm surprised how bad seasonal models are. They just default to ENSO climo it seems. They were way wrong on +100-120dm Aleutian ridge in the DJF mean the last 2 Winters. 23-24 they were also horrible showing all El Nino stuff. 18-19 Weak El Nino they had opposite US temp anomaly pattern. Sometimes other things besides ENSO have effect, I guess they just can't predict that very well right now. This year is certainly a Winter that could go with something on top of ENSO, given how weak the NPH has responded so far.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I used to be like that when I was younger. He posts a lot of good stuff, shouldn't take what other people say to heart like that. I personally enjoy reading his stuff, I don't have a Twitter account so it links me to all the ENSO stuff.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Getting more of an El Nino pattern, N. Pacific low at 216hr.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC disregarding it completely. The CANSIPS has looked like the 2 years in a row, and the last 2 Winters did verify like that. I remember in July last year though it had a 0.0 month lead in the Midwest of -4 to -6 for the month and it ended up being like +2 to +4 lol.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think the model is overestimating the NAO: We aren't going to get extreme cold in the east with the N. Pacific looking like that. As bluewave would say, that's 1960s-esq stuff.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Check out this NAO streak in February 2014 1.342015 1.322016 1.582017 1.002018 1.582019 0.292020 1.262021 0.142022 1.682023 0.922024 1.092025 1.602026 0.68
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good lightning storm, for a change. 1-2 close strikes to my house. Most storms this year have been just rain. Have to love Jul-Aug.
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