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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I like the PD period the best, It still looks good in the upper latitudes. The cold pattern is breaking down, maybe too fast for the 24th (on 12z GEFS).. We are already marginal for Presidents Day.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think there could be some phasing between 2 jet streams. Temps are an issue right now though.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have to post this GFS snow map.. it's probably the most accurate with regards to future trends/the current situation and all.. the max this map ever got since the GFS started showing a hit is 4-6".
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't know what all this GFS hate is. If you know what its biases are, it's easy to work with as a 1-model system.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    100dm is an amazing signal for something not even really related! Furthermore, my analog set is 1998-2023. I have 11 analogs out of the dataset.. so 11/25 years.. 41% of the total. To have a +7F average anomaly (+ and - .. more - years, for the global warming skew.. 7/11 are cold analogs) for 40% of a dataset in 25 years is amazing!
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is most accurate.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    The fortune is meant to reverse during the fortune of the unfortune.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since there's not much activity... Since 1998, top 7 +Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 8.3, bottom 4 Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 2.2. We are at 1.97, the 3rd lowest on record in that time, fitting the extreme situation guideline. https://ibb.co/2vrfcHK Here are the top 11 +analogs for March.. based on Feb's NG price: https://ibb.co/6wKqgDf https://ibb.co/Hp0zZqW ^that's Feb NG price rolled forward into March (so a +1 month lead time)
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would argue that there's not enough data. The daily-specific research I did of that central subsurface cold or warm pool posted a PNA-correlation, no time. I found that Strong Nino years that had negative subsurface water, were more likely to be warm and snowless with SE ridge (there weren't many if any Nina's I can think of that had warm subsurface pool, the opposite of that pattern). If you look at the PNA pattern as Pacific-North America, those Strong Nino/cold subsurface Winter's fit 2/3 variables in the -PNA index (cold West, warm East). Some like 72-73 fit 3/3 parts of the index. I think if you had enough data you would see that there probably are differences late Winter if the Nino subsurface remains strong/neutral, or flips to a Nina-like state. Off the top of my head, these are the Strong Nino/negative subsurface March's: https://ibb.co/kXN8QWs
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another variable we should consider is that we are rapidly losing this El Nino, to possibly La Nina conditions. Here's the latest subsurface map. https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY There is usually a direct correlation between the black box area and the N. Pacific PNA, but the SOI has been severely negative, so that may be overpowering otherwise weak indicators right now.. but eventually, I think we do need to worry about -PNA conditions developing sometime in the early Spring. Maybe even sooner..
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    2 takes. Natural Gas record low: https://ibb.co/2vrfcHK ENSO subsurface changes: https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY ON NATURAL GAS: Since 1998, top 7 +Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 8.3, bottom 4 Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 2.2. We are at 1.97, the 3rd lowest on record in that time, fitting the extreme situation guideline. Here are the top 11 +analogs for March.. based on Feb's NG price: https://ibb.co/6wKqgDf https://ibb.co/Hp0zZqW ^that's Feb high/low NG price rolled forward into March (so a +1 month lead time). I don't know that March's warmth will be that extreme, because a lot of LR models (GEFS, EPS, Euro) are showing below average temps through the 21st, but we probably will finish the month above normal in the NE.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    looks warm
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's showed a hit 4 straight runs (00z-18z).
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    3-4 days ago, OP models were showing P-type problems with the PD storm, when the upper latitude pattern on the ensembles has been near perfect! Since then, the ensembles have come in a little bit weaker with the blocking pattern.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    When IAD posted the 80 degree January day, the rolled forward analogs of similar occurrances at +17-20 days showed a -150dm +AO signal... At the time, there was a lot of LR data showing the opposite, but the ground truth has proven advantage over LR models a lot of times... it seems like they are heavily weighing ENSO climo, when it has been obvious that we've been having these mid-latitude/Hadley Cell high pressure problems for a few Winters now. I like to look outside, look at the clouds, and sort of make a LR assessment going forward. It did look like we were in a "calm before the storm" pattern the last few days..
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    The 18z OP GFS never closes off a block.. except one over England.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    You should run the data sometime, it's really educational. 10mb warmings, not coolings, are almost always followed by 500mb warmings over the N. Atlantic NAO region +time. Daily Climate Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory The study is good November through March.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think it even really does do a block.. maybe 1 closed contour. It's weak compared to some recent blocks that we have seen, especially March 2023.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we are creeping into some high latitude low pressures. Maybe somewhat over Alaska and southern Greenland/north of New Foundland, That's what been showing on a few of the recent OP runs, but we ignored it because of the ensemble means. This is not really showing right now on the averaged ensemble mean, but I've seen this cycle before it will start to get picked up in the coming days especially if they have multiple lows cutting up through the OV/Midwest. The blocking signal has weakened, but it might not be gone totally... but this is what I was saying before when you guys were posting analog-average-means of +250+dm -NAO's. Right now on the ensemble means its a pretty weak blocking signal, and it's waning in trend, but maybe it will still get better in the coming days, because we still have SSW's impacting the surface +time.. I think probably not though because we have this Hadley Cell expansion/mid latitude ridge showing itself again (like last March) in the CONUS.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I mean.. we have a block over Alaska. But we lost the NAO, I knew this would be a wild card.. it's been so hard for us to have multiple -NAO's since 2013, either that or they are associated with a SE ridge lately. and the +PNA is much weaker. Look at that High in the SW Pacific. https://ibb.co/CBMrnpV
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Omg the cold pattern that's not that cold.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z NAM looks stronger with the storm.. that's what I want at this point, a stronger storm This doesn't look that bad.. it may be a 40N thing. Really good setup for SNE it looks like.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm not really impressed right now.. we seem to be in a Hadley Cell expansion/mid-latitude High pressure regime that is holding through all of this tendency toward blocking that we are/have been heading into.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is an average +15 day lag late February to March, so that 10mb warming would favor -NAO conditions (about 2/3 times) March 5-15.. maybe longer if the graph says longer, but it just had +zonal wind in the long range a few days ago, now it's opposite, so we'll see. In mid-late March the downwell time on average +10 days. This 10mb warming is what usually happens in Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO Winter's.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the runs were more suppressed before when models had more +PNA and -NAO. The +PNA has -0.3 correlation to precip, and -NAO has -0.4 correlation to precip, so you're right about that, but they both have +low pressure on the coast-correlation. I was hoping for a blizzard lol
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