Stormchaserchuck1

Oh wow. Look at this in the LR.

Really lost that Aleutian ridge to the north of Hawaii trough at 18z. The models will adjust. It's a below average temperature pattern. We aren't going to hold all three of those conditions: +PNA, -NAO, SE ridge. Only if the Aleutian island High strengthens back.

That first wave will moisten up, and like brooklynwx posted, it's a below average temperature pattern while several waves move through. :)

Strongest -NAO yet, this is a +500dm block now on the 18z GFS ensembles. Pacific trended more +PNA today in the MR. I like the idea of that WC trough as it moves east.

They couldn't take the ECMWF's domination. Had to even it out with ensembles. They seem like 0.40 correlated with initial conditions that day.

It's a really bad model though. It might just be running with the likelihood of a scenario.

Like I expected, we're always trending toward a GOA low

I'll slow it down

Upper latitudes will probably adjust.

There's a lot of moisture in the STJ

What do you guys think of this? 3 areas of low pressure in the west going into a healthy -NAO?

This is the Pacific pattern change

Boy did this storm weaken

It's a >500dm Aleutian block on the 6z gfs ensemble mean, 3 closed 500mb low contours on the mean. I've noticed that recently in snowstorms, everytime models want to put a GOA low, and sometimes it's a serious trend. I would say that, that is our window, when they show GOA low's, but the cold air might lift out/pattern less favorable in that case. With that -300dm trough under the N. Pacific ridge, I don't think it will be trending south a lot, so we might be safe for a good overrunning storm, unless a GOA low pops and it morphs into something extreme at 500mb. I think a lot can change with now that look in the Pacific, but I just wanted to make a point that the pattern trended more extreme at 6z. I'm curious to see how it plays out. There aren't many analogs of a +500dm -PNA/>+300-NAO in March. Most -PNA's happened with +NAO going back to 1948..

courtesy of brooklywx.. ridge over Greenland to ridge over Aleutian islands.. check ^lots of 50/50 low energy around..

Wow, awesome

^ Actually, that's straight HECS setup. The ridge is so big into Alaska, that there isn't enough normal variance for us to not get snow. I've seen the High jump to just the Aleutian islands maybe 1/10 times (sometimes we are the anti-snow magnet). Biggest risk is the pattern drying up.

It's definitely going to snow. The pattern is too wet for us to miss the window. Every 3 days we get a storm/precip or something if the jet stream is going straight w->e. We have like a 5-10 day window, maybe less(3?). I'm afraid it's probably +AO/+EPO after that. edit: both storms fizzled out compared to what they were showing a few days on models, under the fast jet-through Canada +EPO pattern (like I thought they would- that's what happens. Models always underestimate Alaska). That's going to change/flip, so I think we are building potential energy the right way.

That 573+dm -EPO block is a new development. Models had started trending south to -PNA, weakness cutting through Alaska yesterday. It's a wet STJ too.

Boom. I bet you we have a snowstorm March 9-11.

Ides of March.

384hr looks horrible. Blasted +AO. I knew my 2012 analog/similarities wouldn't just fall off the radar.

Maybe we're chasing this? March 9-11 window. Pattern is such that it should snow.

I don't know.. this looks good to me. We have a +PDO setup and strong -NAO still when this rolls east Models lost a lot of the moisture they were showing earlier for during and after the time.. yesterday was a drier day so they seem extrasensitive to current conditions. edit: it's still pretty wet. I'm getting frustrated that it's not showing an organized system because of sheering out SER. The upper latitudes with the ridge bridge look good. There's a lot of moisture everywhere still. (It does look like the window closes early in the LR). If the SE ridge is running as an independent feature, there is going to be more moisture in the pattern too.

I did this before, it favors +PNA next.. for 4 years \ 55-56 middle, 21-23 middle