Stormchaserchuck1

Here's that pattern again. -WPO and -NAO, and SE ridge and SW High pressure. https://ibb.co/bvWbJ7V That's why I think we are more likely to have a Winter like 15-16 or 09-10 vs 02-03 or 95-96 (1 storm vs many).

I would definitely expect +PNA to even this out... We have been in this +/- swing thing for a while.

By looking at your posts, I can gather we could be looking at a 2 year El Nino event (variation differences since 2007/8 or 13)(unpredictability)? I have a +PNA signal for the next 4 Winters general/combined..

Here you go.. you can better confirm El Nino event with this pattern in place. Looking at the correlation maps, PNA oppositely correlates Feb - maybe mid-April then it's +correlation so not a big variation event, the current -PNA maybe https://ibb.co/H259JXG

Nice +PNA too https://ibb.co/H259JXG This is what you want to see if you want next Winter to be good.

Kind of a massive little -AO here at end of April

Here you guys go.. would love to see this pattern through November. First real sign of a sustained +PNA. https://ibb.co/Z8zQyYk

Not a good night for MLB baseball.

Almost 90 tomorrow?

Now we have this. 2018 was similar at 10mb too. https://ibb.co/0jz7xjw

I think it will be hard to break the -PNA. I've noticed the only short term index that is trending over the last few months is negative PNA. If we have a Stronger Nino, there should be a GOA low at least. El Nino/-QBO is usually perfect for Stratosphere warmings, but we may have done 1 of the cycle already in Feb-March. I don't think the 7 years in a row of -PNA is done, even if we have a stronger El Nino breaking it temporarily (which will be interesting to see if that happens, so far no signs of change in the N. Hemisphere). (Kind of an interesting clash coming up.) I also have a satellite-era PDO signal for 4 Winters of +PNA starting 23-24, so maybe the opposite of what you're thinking. That's just a map of NAO's that don't correlate, the next Winter, it becomes a pressure-dominant NAO index.

12 years I came up with since 1948, where the NAO -correlated to the EC, with this Winter being #1. I tried to filter out Pacific patterns too. analogs https://ibb.co/yRPshZv The next Winter the pattern is uniform. These are 3 +/-/+ in sync wavelengths. fwiw https://ibb.co/XF39BLX pops the -PNA. We have more of a +AAM.

It worked again... 4th time in a row La Nina/+QBO has led to -NAO. Quite a little anti-thesis verifying. https://ibb.co/JRbpVST I bet you if next year is El Nino/-QBO, -NAO will not be most dominant pattern in the N. Hemisphere, everything else but that Maybe even something like 13-14/14-15, in the extreme.

I know this Winter all year long the models would have to shift toward a GOA low to have snow. No other patterns were holding any non-warm weight, just a GOA low. When it didn't happen, it wouldn't snow. I know a Strong Nino is the #1 GOA low pattern, but it's a really concerning signal going long term, the 1 condition needed for snow.

I remember when nobody posted if it wasn't about future snow chances. Here's a cool map. 5-month change https://ibb.co/1sst316 We need the event to be this extreme to be independent from global random right now.

Man it's too hot to even walk. There is no reason for why it's this hot right now, as like, a dominant pattern.

Not typically what you see in an El Nino here (RNA). https://ibb.co/8Bb2btg

We are looking at a +7 departure for April, or something like that.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/flux/index.html

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/taotriton-map There is a way to archive data back to 1979. 12z GFS ensembles have a -PNA throughout the next 15 days. It was a big shift, again, from 06z. -PNA correlates to central-subsurface cooling, or at least a stop in the warming.

I think we will go Weak to Moderate. https://ibb.co/z5zRZ4Y There is also a chance the El Nino could die out completely by June-July. Remember, this is the 3rd year in a row of March-May warming, although the current event is more extreme.

There actually are a high number of years that have Nino 1+2 differing from Nino 3/4. I came up with 11 years since 1988. +2012 +2010 +2008 +2002 +2001 +1998 -2013 -2005 -1996 -1995 -1994 You may say not as extreme, but it's very close. 11 years.. the signal dies going into July. May June (out of attachment space) https://ibb.co/Dw0vXKY July https://ibb.co/TmVtXnY July 9th.. the developing "Strong Nino" signal is lessened and almost diminished.

It's a satelite-era glitch. I noticed on the climate divison maps that the US was +PNA 1942-1947. Then satelites started in Jan 1948, and we were opposite, -PNA, 1948-1954. +6 years. The PDO extreme was 4-5 years after the start of satellite era in Jan 1948. -3 monthly PDO. We hit -3 PDO the only other time in 2022. 1948 to 1952-1953 was 4-5 years +4-5 gave us a perfect +PNA signal when no ENSO-connected + years the PDO extreme. So I'm going for +PNA the next 4 Winter's, and ENSO is not related to the overall calculation, so more El Nino tendency in that time.

Yeah, I was saying 1+ year ago, the NAO is oppositely correlating. That a +NAO Winter would be better than -NAO Winter. There were like 20 posts in the Fall about -NAO Winter being bad...

I remain very impressed at the high correlation between central subsurface temperatures and the North Pacific pattern (PNA). Nothing else, no other measurement, even comes close. (I've tested SOI, zonal winds, OLR etc. take out their correlation to subsurface and it's <0.20 correlation real time)