Stormchaserchuck1

EPO looks to go positive Friday, so it may smooth out warmer days thereafter.

I'm getting a signal +2 days from the 1st day of Spring, or Strong -NAO block until March 19th, lifting out for a snowstorm. This is something I've seen as the turn of a calendar event (month or season) as a mathematical anomaly, and now March 1st showing the big -NAO dive on current models.

+EPO is underestimated in the MR/LR. Models have it turning to +EPO while NAO is transitioning to negative. I contend there is still a strong -NAO/+EPO-PNA correlation in play, Not really any chance for snow in that imo. There is some potential that the Pacific could be changing state around March 9th, for one, because of the length of -PNA at that time, when it was strongly transitioning to El Nino in the subsurface back in January.

Look at how weak this has gotten. I still contest that there is a D-0 correlation, so with forecasted -PNA through March 9, we could see much more weakening still.

-NAO will likely rule the pattern March 9-19, -PNA until March 9. There is a stronger precipitation correlation than temperature. Models now develop a +EPO Day 7>, so it may also be hard to get highs under 50° when the -NAO initially begins.

I know I was terrorized until I posted on weather message board. Judgement ensues here..

18z GFS: Baffin Island Low dominates. -PNA dominates. Look at this piece of energy dropping into the NW @119hr: (Tracking the warmup.)

Have to wonder if a big SE ridge early Spring preceeds any kind of Atlantic hurricane season. Last time was 2017,2018,2019.. average storms 17/yr. minus 2013 (SE trough): "The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was a well below average Atlantic hurricane season and the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes." minus 2022 that rocked a little the short term average for Febuary's "v": "The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was the first season since 1997 in which no tropical cyclones formed in August, and the lowest La Niña year since 1998." That's in this era since 2013..

EPS sucks as a model.. GFS ensembles trended to +EPO today Days 13-15 at 12z, ..3 contours over Alaska. To let you know, this current +EPO that is about to end is responsible for Isip, NY breaking February monthly record today of 71 degrees on Feb 16th.

Stratosphere warming on MR and LR models, takes some time to downwell.. The -NAO should max out March 9-19, 2023. That is our window.

The -NAO should max out March 9-19, 2023. That is our window.

We are trending more toward Weak/Moderate Last year's subsurface push all the way through was actually warmer.

The way it's been trending since 2013, and more so since 2019, is as the NAO goes negative, our temperatures peak. We probably will hit some nice 70s in the LR.

SW, US conditions can sometimes be a predictor.

It's been like a +NAO Winter with above average precipitation. The correlation did kind of reverse after 2013 (+NAO more often linked with -EPO/+PNA, -NAO linked with -PNA).

Good job buddy. I did 2nd guess my Winter thoughts when I saw your outlook. (We were trending cold in the Fall).

Now we have a tropical ridge over Florida. (may have to get past this first for -pna weakness, model has been initializing more on current conditions). I'm surprised you guys aren't talking about this. It checks back to a warm day or 2. I would watch for thunderstorms risk. (Maybe some 80s and 90s in the SE as the +NAO hooks up with -PNA.)

Man, do we have a shot of +NAO before it turns negative. Look at this map (warm pattern).

Last 4 GFS runs with max strength of the -PNA Pacific ridge in the MR: 12z: 593dm 06z: 592dm 00z: 593dm 18z: 592dm 12z GFS has it >590dm for 50+ hours.

That's about the warmest look it gets on the 18z GFS ensembles. We pop a +3 sigma SE ridge when the NAO goes negative, which is what I'm saying, we might flux the -PNA/+EPO initially.

negative anomalies over Alaska.. I dont know, always warmer and dry. We'll be looking forward to transition to straight -PNA/neutral EPO.

Trying. PNA vs NAO battle, which the PNA will win here on the EC unless something changes.

I'm doing more research on this "when the NAO/AO go negative in the first week of March, the PNA and EPO will flux (- and +)". On 3-1, where the current D15 ensemble mean model shows a +300dm -PNA (strong signal), in the last 3 years we had a strong PNA signal on this date 3/3 times (0/7 years previous). -minus 2022 +plus 2021 +plus 2020 This is what they looked like 3.9-12

There are signs of a -NAO/-AO developing in the first week of March on LR models, with a +120dm anomaly over the arctic circle at 384hr on the 18z GEFS. I think initially we will even out the cold signal with -PNA/+EPO-even, but watch to around March 7/8-18 for a possible window,bridge between the Pacific/Atlantic. (10mb warmings don't always downwell to -NAO+time, but about 70% of the time they do.)

I do want to say good job GFS not showing long range snowstorms, for many Winter's now, in verification. It was not like that in the early 2000s. -PNA signal in February is a reverse-ENSO historically by May-August that year(higher developing El Nino tendency). Correlation is 0.4 to a +NAO April (-PNA February, which should be top 15 all time this year). 0.3 correlation to -PNA March.