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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Volatile. -NAO trends stronger, Pacific ridge trends stronger.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Come on.. look at this pattern when/if the warm air breaks down. (as long as the epo is +, it's going to be rain. There is something called "snapping", where as our warm days busted warmer, conditions over Alaska trended colder in the upper atmosphere. After so much of that you sometimes get 5-10 days of -EPO or something. ) There is also that +EPO's last 7-13 days, and this one is going Feb 24-March 5 (10 days).
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    That was Feb 19! I think I should win it if temps go a little bit higher here at the end of the month.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    We'll get snow if it gets cold enough. March 9>> Anyone remember March 31/April 1, 1997?
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Active STJ. watch my March 9-19 window
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we have NAO dominate the N. Hemisphere pattern March 9-19, but I wonder if that is too late after the Stratosphere downwelling time to 500mb is around the turn of the month.. If it lasts, we kind of have a signal for the Pacific to take #2. STJ remains active on the LR GFS, and after December was only the 2nd December ever with -NAO and above average precip across the country it could happen.. I still worry about the Pacific-Atlantic neg correlation (-NAO going deeper is +EPO/-PNA going deeper/mirroring).
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Keeping the STJ active Usually in -NAO it dries up.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe someone is buying up natural gas?
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    We've been in this negative-NAO correlation/Pacific thing since 2013, and more so 2019. March 2018 was a west-based NAO block that came from SSW. I am afraid the strength of -NAO will only be mirrored by strength of +EPO/-PNA.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Believe it or not, there is a slight -pna correlation. what we need is neutral to positive anomalies over Alaska. Alaska and believe it or not there is a slight +nao correlation to snow too. If you minus the rising-out-of-negNAO-snowstorms, the correlation is greater.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Now we have a nice -NAO developing here in the LR on the ensembles Edit: kicks over to Greenland not as strong. Probably fitting to the March 9th-19 window I talked about.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    How long does it last for? Oct 30-Nov15: 45-60 days to downwell Nov 15-Dec 15: 30-45 days to downwell Dec 15-Jan 15: 25-35 days to downwell Jan 15-Feb 15: 15-25 days to downwell Feb 15-Mar 15: ~15 days to downwell Mar 15-Apr1: ~10 days to downwell (Started 2-15): 15 days to downwell.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually, has it happened yet? Because in La Nina/+QBO, you usually don't get Stratosphere warmings.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Did a study once on Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers.. point is found that they beat the spread most of the time. Were close to 60% on SNF and MNF. Point is, in perfect scenario, best QB wins even against the spread.. Eagles were going under the radar at 17-1 and I went contrary to that.. If Hurt's doesn't fumble on his own for a TD it's like 42-38 or something..
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's one heck of a +EPO trough diving in western Canada..
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since I moved up here in 1997, it's snowed something like 12/20 times in April when I was here (Harford Co.). I bet we get at least flurries this April.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've had one hanging out here since January. It looked worried that day the arctic front hit Maine.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    A sub-500dm 500mb low over Alaska before the storm, trending more neg anomaly on other models/ensembles after.. I doubt that's anything close to snow.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I doubt it.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    This Winter.. seems to be more "normal", doing analog-research and other things throughout the Winter vs previous Winter's that were more "smoothed out through the Hemisphere". 2012, March 2012 is hitting pretty hard as an analog right now, and this was the last relative max, which I think we could accelerate toward this Summer.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, EPO went negative for a few days. That's why models are showing snowstorms too (they are overinitializing current conditions).
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    We are hitting this correlation pretty hard on the Atlantic side. I was curious because models show a 597dm ridge over Florida, and there appears to be a slight correlation to higher hurricane season activity in the Atlantic following that.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look at the Pacific, and how there was a deep downstream trough in Russia, under a ridge.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I give it like 1/20. I think they're trying to understand the 70 degree day that happens first. I also think the changing of NAO is mixed in with this as being a variable.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    We seem to need a longer term pattern hold to change. This 7 years of -PNA after a Strong El Nino doesn't make a whole lot of sense, if you are looking at it purely from ENSO. 72-73: 3 years of -PNA. 82-83: 3 years of negative ENSO. 97-98: 3 years of -PNA. 15-16: 7 years of -PNA. We seems to have a greater connection with the upper atmosphere or sun.
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