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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    His board? I love weather. Love obvious right's/wrong's and pointing them out as these are $$traded commodities. Feel like it's an awesome chance and time of peace.. 384hr gfs ensemble now has a -NAO trying to develop, and I nailed that +PNA Feb5th-> call, as of right now, verifying better and better, vs models at 18z. 384hr of the gfs ensemble looks good. I fear this +NAO pacing our coming +PNA. hopefully the modeled -NAO/+PNA happens in the 2nd week of February.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess indexes, or index changes aren't considered by models? Weird, easy error. I've seen this verify before close to 100%. There you go! I'll look forward to 50s, and 60s and rooting on the snow drought into the 2nd week of February.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    re: 18z GFS: this model will trend much, much warmer in future runs for Medium Range Storm. -PNA, nasty +NAO. could be 60s is my guess.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    DCA +5.5 NYC+6.0 BOS +6.5 ORD+5.5 ATL+5.0 IAH +3.5 DEN +1.0 PHX -2.0 SEA -3.0 *Edit 1-31-2023 7pm.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    eh.. it's phasing into this I don't like the threat anymore. Just for cold rain. By a lot actually, (Just like PHL covering -2.5)
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a pretty horrible look on the 6z GFS ensemble. After this 72hr storm, it's warm, warm.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PNA signal in March.. doubt we get any snow
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    You guys are weard.. GFS will show snow or ice at 00z.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's actually a lot of moisture running into cold air.. my guess would be ice in future runs. +PNA signal starts Feb 5th.. will probably coincide with +NAO
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I found no STJ correlation but there was a strong PNA correlation at 0-time.. fwiw
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Subsurface in Nino 4 is about 10F above normal.. 65 degrees, not 55 degrees. I've found that the subsurface is more important regards to actual N. Pacific pattern in 0-time (D+0). (You can also look at the pressure pattern that happened in Winter 87-88, in reverse, when the subsurface was total cold (<-5F) During El Nino (SouthUS-High Pressure)(as the best analog match).)
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Theory getting blown out of water?
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Now we have really strong +NAO in February I was surprised because the roll forward composite (+NAO) was greater than my pick-and-choose analogs
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I mean this verbatim, is pretty horrible lol
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Man.. can someone approve my posts? Not really worth it to post on this board anymore. Also because WXUSAF doesn't like to approve posts that have real $$value in forecasting.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Love a low in the GOA, or that spot.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    You guys should know a +PNA Is coming for Feb 7-21. Saying it will likely be nuetral-to+NAO gives us these analogs for the time period: (since 1948) 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1979, 1980 1980, 1981, 1982, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2015, 2016, 2021 ^ analogs vs other analog match's suggest not such an easy +NAO.. maybe -NAO possibility for Feb7-21 (How did we do snow-wise? anyone that knows)
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nasty -EPO, I wouldn't be suprised if it's 2 ice storms in future runs. In reality, we always need the -PNA to shake.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Man, I would bet the line PHL -2.5 x a lot
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't want the 12z gfs ensembles look to go anywhere! Here's the cold that you guys have been talking about: And my continuum theory that in this time the cold has to correlate with +NAO, especially to get meaningful snow. Maybe if we get a Strong El Nino next year, it would break the ~10 year trend.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ice storms are very common in -EPO's/-WP's (1-27 to 2/6) Here's what we have coming Jan 27th - Feb 2(-epo) Feb 2-7 (-wpo) (reverse this map v, map is opposite correlation of above) And believe it or not, I like +NAO for snow more than -NAO, at this time. (v+NAO composite)
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    The -PNA developing at 12z GFS ensembles at 384hr will probably not verify. That is what is probably our cold window/time (Feb 7-21) Dec -NAO/wetter than average is heavily followed by +NAO February (stronger signal than -NAO's that I was looking for!), so we will have to contend that with that perhaps.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Will be interesting to see if the El Nino holds, if we have a -PNA March....
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    ' We may have to "build to" an east coast event, start Feb 5, 7-8, then maybe Feb 10-13 we'll get a snowstorm. I would actually like the NAO to stay positive.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still have to shake this -PNA tendency. I say ~Feb7-8-> we start getting hit.
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